Fitness and fatness both matter. Excess weight from muscle, with a lean waist, is not a risk factor for premature death. Excess body fat distributed in the lower extremities, as often prevails in premenopausal women, is also not a marker of risk. Weight around the middle is, however, and its effect on mortality appears in this large analysis to be much the same as the risk of inactivity.
The saying goes "I thought I would have to teach my daughter about the world, turns out I have to teach the world about her." This has been true enough in the past four years, but it is also true to add that it turns out that my daughter has had to teach me. So, Merry Christmas, from a very proud and humbled mum, to the best teacher I've ever had.