The Riddle of Appalachia

As expected, Sen. Hillary Clinton crushed Sen. Barack Obama in yesterday's West Virginia primary. This result means very little, of course. Obama still has the most pledged delegates, the most superdelegates, and the most popular votes, and is still firmly on track to capture the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. While not very politically significant, though, the outcome in West Virginia does shed some new light on the kinds of Democratic primary voters who do and do not vote for Obama.

The so-called "race chasm" theory, conceived not long ago, held that Obama prevails wherever African-Americans make up a very small (i.e. less than 6 percent) or very large (i.e. more than 17 percent) share of a state's population. The idea was that very white states lack a legacy of racial discrimination, and are thus receptive to a black man running for president, while the blacks in heavily African-American states are able to overwhelm the less amenable whites who live there. In between, where blacks make up more than 6 percent but less than 17 percent of a state's population, racial polarization reduces Obama's appeal to white voters but African-American voters are not numerous enough to compensate.

This theory had correctly predicted the result in just about every primary to date. Yesterday, though, it misfired spectacularly. West Virginia, a state where blacks make up just 3 percent of the population -- a state that was founded because of opposition to slavery -- went for Clinton by 40 points over Obama. States with similar black/white demographics (e.g. Nebraska, Maine, Washington) had all previously gone for Obama by significant margins. So what on earth happened in West Virginia? Why did the "race chasm" theory fail so dramatically?

Josh Marshall posits an interesting historical answer. Marshall observes that West Virginia is part of Appalachia, a region with a historical, ethnic, and socioeconomic profile distinct from the eastern seaboard, the deep South, or the Midwestern plains. For a variety of reasons, Marshall suggests, Appalachian voters are particularly likely to support Clinton over Obama.

But this explanation is not very satisfying either. Yes, West Virginia went overwhelmingly for Clinton while Southern states like Alabama and Mississippi fell into the Obama column. But white voters in West Virginia were essentially indistinguishable from their peers in the deep South. According to exit poll data, Clinton won West Virginia white voters by a 69-23 margin -- and Alabama and Mississippi white voters by almost identical 72-25 and 70-26 margins, respectively.

What these numbers mean is that Obama doesn't exactly have an "Appalachia problem." After all, if West Virginia had a black population akin to Alabama or Mississippi's, Obama would almost certainly have won the state. And if Alabama and Mississippi had the same black/white demographics as West Virginia, Obama would almost certainly have been trounced. Rather, Obama's greatest difficulty seems to be with white voters both in Appalachia and in certain nearby states. For whatever reason, white voters in states like Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia have all proven extremely reluctant to support Obama, instead preferring Clinton by margins of at least 20 points.

Still, there is hope that Obama can increase his appeal to these states' white voters in the general election. For one thing, whites in some Southern and Midwestern states were surprisingly receptive to Obama. Since Obama lost Georgia whites by only 10 points, there would seem to be no reason why he should lose Alabama and Mississippi whites by 45 points. Similarly, since Obama won Virginia whites by 5 points, there would seem to be no reason why he should lose North Carolina whites by 24 points. A general election is also a very different contest than a Democratic primary, and many of the whites who voted for Clinton over Obama can be expected to support Obama when he becomes the party's nominee.

Finally, and most importantly, Obama seems well aware of his unpopularity with certain white voters, and eager to do his best to improve the situation. It is a very good sign that today's New York Times headline reads: "After Lopsided Loss, Obama Woos Blue-Collar Voters." Wooing may not always work -- but it plainly beats ignoring the problem and hoping it will go away.

Comments

[chinohillster]

Why should the people of Appalachia be singled out? These folks are NOT going to vote for Senator Obama, just like it could reasonably be assumed that the people of _Berkeley, California_ are NOT going to vote for Senator McCain!

As a black woman, I take it as given that there are going to be People Who Do Not Like Me - some, because I rub them the wrong way, others because I am a woman, a black person. Okay - that is their right.

Human beings tend to fear and hate what they do not know - there are not a whole lot of black people in places like West Virginia, and as previous posters have commented, there is a history behind much of the way people who live in such places think and feel, just like there is a history behind much of what black people in places like Compton, CA, or North Philadelphia or Harlem, NY think and feel.

I recall seeing a movie about a miners' strike - one of the striking miners was a black man, and was called the N-word. A white woman said to the insulting person, 'That 'N' is a _better_ man than _you'll_ ever be!" in her beautiful accent (I think this may have been in West Virginia)

When I saw this scene, I thought, "You go, girl!"

[bethinCary]

No it's not an Appalachia problem by itself-but it does amount to the amount of education (good major universities in a state) and the age of voters..
socioeconomic figures in too-blue or white collar jobs in these states?

[Researchguy66]

I get it, so 75% of white people everywhere are ignorant, uneducated, bitter, typical racists. That sounds like a winner for a campaign communication strategy.

[NABNYC]

If we had two political parties that worked together to starve the people of this country, the pundits touring the country during campaign season would likely say "My goodness, the people in this country are really thin."

Don't criticize the people of West Virginia. Criticize the Democrats in national office who spend all their time soliciting bribes and getting rich, and spend no time working for the people of this country. If the Democrats weren't so corrupt, they would have improved the lives of the people of West Virginia who, after all, were featured in depression-era photos as the poorest people in the country. They still are, and none of the politicians do a damned thing about it.

If the Democrats weren't so corrupt, they would have stopped the coal companies from hacking off the tops of mountains, pouring sludge into the water and into the land and destroying all the water in West Virginia, destroying every form of life that lives in the water, polluting the air and making the people and the children sick, then walking away with their billions in stolen resources and leaving those people with nothing but sickness and an early death.

If the Democrats weren't so currupt, they would have a national anti-racism program, and would ensure that every person in this country got a good education and job, and was able to see through the myths of racism.

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

[moonwatcher]

From what I've been told in the Civil War West Virginia had soldiers both in the Union and the South. Some are descendants of indentured servants and some are descendants of plantation owners in Virginia. They have some southern attitudes. I wonder how many black people are in positions of power in West Virginia. How many of these college graduates are black people? If you are not used to seeing educated middle class black people, you might have a different attitude toward the Obamas of the world.
Some people who are poor have to feel superior to others. "At least I'm not black." Even though an educated black person will probably make more money in a life time and make definite positive contributions to society, some poor white people will feel superior to them. That's the way they were raised. Living in rural areas isolated from other cultures makes some of these people fearful. They believe Obama is a Muslim and he and the blacks are coming to get them. Those attitudes are not in just West Virginia, but in other states.

[Sciguy]

Maybe us ornery contrary old coots in Appalachian states is sick and tired of having other folks tellin' us which candidates oughta drop out before we gets us a chance to have our voices heard?

Disclaimer: I'm not pro-Obama or pro-Clinton. I'm pro-Democrat, regardless of who ends up as the nominee.

[AshevilleVoice]

To understand Appalachia you have to understand how extreme religious practices have flourished due to generations of cultural isolation.

WVA is 86.5% Christian, and 41% of that is "unafiliated"- having no ties to mainstream protestant churches.

These people have been manipulated by the Christian Conservative right, who disseminated pamphlets in 2004 claiming that liberals want to ban bibles, for example.

WVa hasn't even banned snake handling, as you can see in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMP-CQ_bvSM&feature=related

(The snakes come out about halfway through.)

Mainstream identity politics lose their meaning here, as these "blue collar white people" identify with their religious peculiarities way more than race or income.

[Phylmom]

Why should WV enact a ban against the very few people who handle snakes? It would be a violation of their first amendment rights to freedom of religion. If the ACLU ever challenged the bans in other states like North Carolina, the bans would go. WV is absolutely right on this civil liberties issue.

[Haniotisa]

It appears that those denouncing West Virginians as bigots are bigots themselves. Because West Virginians didn't vote the way you want they must be backwards and uneducated? Studies have shown that the majority of those who discriminate on the basis of race will also discriminate on the basis of sex. In other words, the majority of racists are also sexists. So it would seem to follow that if West Virginians didn't vote for Obama because of the color of his skin then they would not have voted for a woman.

I will not say there are no bigots or racists in West Virginia, just like I can't say there are none in Washington, Pennsylvania, Indiana or any other state. But let's see if we can wrap our head around this concept: Could West Virginians have voted for Hillary because we felt she was the best candidate? Could it be we voted for Hillary because Obama didn't put a lot of effort in campaigning here, assuming, as you have,that most West Virginians are backward, uneducated bigots and he shouldn't waste his time? Could it possibly be that West Virginians feel that Hillary has more experience in domestic and international affairs and would be more equipped to handle stepping into the White House in the middle of a failed military conflict, a declining economy, and an astronomical national budget deficit?

Instead of attacking West Virginians for not choosing your political candidate, why don't we just agree to disagree?

[em0199]

I don't think people are attacking them because they didn't vote for Obama. I think the attacks started coming when you started seeing the exit polls. It showed something like 20% of people openly admitted to pollsters that race affected their vote. That is an astonishing number of people to openly admit it. Then you need to take into account the amount that felt it but didn't admit it.

[LABC]

Exactly ! I am sure you missed the exit polls and news articles while in your defensive crouch.

[Phylmom]

Kind of hard to argue about who didn't admit it when you don't know.

In fact, if you look at national polls you will see 20 percent is pretty standard across the board nationally. These are the same 20 percent who think George Bush is doing a great job. They are the same 20 percent who think Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9/11. They are a NATIONAL 20 percent, not just in WV.

You know, it these people were only in WV, the country wouldn't have a problem, would it/ We could just nuke WV and let the US go on its progressive way.

Stop making WV your whipping boy. You are really succeeding in making us very, very angry. Bigotry is bigotry.

[northeast73]

So.......what then is the matter with WHITE voters in NORTH CAROLINA then?

Since Virginia (almost identical demographics) Obama lost 24 points among white voters, and only won about 1 in 3 in that state?

Could it be that nothing about the voters changed EXCEPT their perceptions of the candidate?

I know.....its just easier to label everyone as racist.

[Phylmom]

" How many have never been more than 10 miles from the place of their birth?"

You're kidding, right? For someone making fun of others, you sound pretty uneducated yourself.

[Phylmom]

Good analysis in this article. Finally someone is pointing out that Appalachia is no different from many other places. And no one is mentioning the real reason for Hillary Clinton's showing. People here love Bill Clinton. He is very very popular. (Arkansas is a lot like WV) WV never bought into the Clinton bashing in the 1990s, which should be of some encouragement to liberals. Prediction -- Obama will win WV in November. IF he campaigns here. If he doesn't, he'll lose.

Stop the prejudice against Appalachian people.

[northeast73]

Oblahma got the same percentage of white votes in WVA that he got in PA, OH, NC, IN, MA, NJ, NY, CA......it aint race thang....its an experience thing.

[leftcoastliberal]

RIght, unlike Clinton, Obama has no experience voting FOR George Bush's stupid Iraq war. And I don't know about other states, but they did a poll here in California, and if the primary election were held today, Obama would beat Clinton by 6 points. Senator Clinton's comments about how white people love her and sniper fire and "obliterating" Iran have disgusted voters of all races.

[northeast73]

RIght, unlike Clinton, Obama has no experience voting FOR George Bush's stupid Iraq war
===========

Thats only an issue for the FAAAARRR LEEFFFTTT LOOOONS like yourself.

Moderate dems like me realize....80% of the COUNTRY was in favor of the war at the time it started.....no punishment to HRC needed......to Bush & Co...perhaps.

[apoyo]

Me thinks that Appalachia won't like the spotlight being shone on it and this may portend a change for the positive. It is, after all, 2008. I was heartened to see how many votes Obama did get.

[wondering]

The real answer is the education level of these people. How many went to college? How many graduated from high school? How many have never been more than 10 miles from the place of their birth?

What joy does Hillary take in claiming the uneducated, gun-toting, bible-thumper vote?

Yay, she can fool dummies! (Of course, that's how the ninny currently claiming the mantle of Prezdint got elected, as well.)

[northeast73]

The real answer is the education level of these people. How many went to college? How many graduated from high school
=============

How WRONG you are.......AND YOU ARE A SNOB.

In the West Virginia DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY...the education of voters was as follows.....

29% Hold a 2 year college degree
15% Hold a 4 Year college degree
14% Hold a Post Graduate Degree.

Meaning 59% of voters had at least 2 years of college.....K

[BlueOnBlue]

"15% Hold a 4 Year college degree"

That's the lowest among all states.

Wikipedia...

"West Virginia has received low marks for reading and math skills at the eighth-grade level and ranked 51st in college education rates."

As for the economy...

"The economy of West Virginia is one of the most fragile of any U.S. state. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, West Virginia is the third lowest in per capita income, ahead of only Arkansas and Mississippi. It also ranks last in median household income."

It isn't snobbery to point out facts. West Virginia has been voting for low taxes and poor education for decades. It has received what it supported.

[wondering]

A two-year college degree is basically what you should have learned in high school. Or else it's a trade school.

So 70% did not go to a four-year college. Hmmm...

Do you have numbers on the median incomes of these West Virginian voters compared to other primary states? That would be a telling statistic.

[jesselee26]

what i think may be lost on you is that "white" is only part of the appalachian mystique. this is a culture that has survived for generation after generation by being clannish. by sticking to themselves and resisting the tides of time. that's the problem. don't sink all of us "non-rich" whites in this same, nasty ship, please. there are those of us, even on the foothills, who make decisions based on our self-interests as a human race, not a white one.