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Nigel Barber

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Why Atheism Will Replace Religion

Posted: 12/13/11 10:06 AM ET

In earlier posts (here and here), I documented a clear pattern where atheism blossoms in developed countries but is virtually absent in less developed nations . The implication is that as countries around the globe get more prosperous religion will decline. In a new study, I have found the most compelling evidence yet for this possibility.

It seems that people turn to religion as a salve for the difficulties and uncertainties of their lives. In social democracies, there is less fear and uncertainty about the future because social welfare programs provide a safety net and better health care means that fewer people expect to die young. In social democracies, people who are less vulnerable to the hostile forces of nature feel more in control of their lives. So there is less need of religion.

In a recent (2011) study of 137 countries (2) I found that belief in God was higher in countries with a heavy load of infectious diseases where inhabitants could expect to die young and to suffer from chronic illnesses such as malaria. Fewer people believed in God in wealthy and well-educated countries where life is not so hard or uncertain. I also found that atheism increases in countries with a well-developed welfare state (as indexed by high taxation rates). Countries with a more equal distribution of income -- and hence less social problems, such as violent crime -- had more atheists.

My study controlled for whether a country was mostly Muslim (where atheism is criminalized) or formerly Communist (where religion was suppressed). It accounted for three-quarters of country differences in atheism.

Yet, the 2011 study had a weakness.The data was not collected in the same way in different countries and were not strictly comparable. Instead, the numbers were compiled from numerous different studies. This introduced an element of "noise." The conclusions one draws are only as good as the evidence on which they are based.

Conversely, good data is the lifeblood of science. In a yet-to-be-published study (3), I analyzed Gallup data on the importance of religion in people's daily lives. As one might expect, there is a strong relationship between the proportion of people who believe in God in a country and the percentage who say that religion is "important" or "very important" in their daily lives (the statistical overlap being 80 percent).

The key advantage of the Gallup data is that the same polling methodology was used in each of the 114 countries for which they collected nationally representative data in 2009.

My results in the new study mirrored those of the earlier one on belief in God. More people agreed that religion was important in their daily lives in countries with a heavy load of infectious diseases. Religiosity declined in countries having a well-developed welfare state. Residents of more developed countries, and better educated populations were less religious. Countries with a more equal distribution of income were lower on religiosity also.

Why is religion in decline in modern democracies where ordinary people enjoy a good standard of living? It seems that with better science, with government safety nets, better health, and longer life expectancy, there is less fear and uncertainty in people's daily lives. As a result there is less of a need for religion to help people cope with the otherwise uncomfortable feeling that they have little control over their lives.

The fast-paced modern world brings plenty of food, scientific medicine, climate controlled homes, reliable weather forecasts and many other innovations that put God out of business. The comforts of modernity lead to atheism. Of that, there can no longer be any reasonable doubt.

Sources
1. Zuckerman, P. (2007). Atheism: Contemporary numbers and patterns. In M. Martin (ed.), The Cambridge companion to atheism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. This book is not held by any U.S. Library.
2. Barber, N. (2011). A cross-national test of the uncertainty hypothesis of religious belief. Cross-Cultural Research, 45, 318-333.
3. Barber, N. (under review). Country religiosity declines as material security increases. International Perspectives in Psychology.

 
 
 
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08:39 AM on 12/14/2011
Let's get a move on, people of the United States. Quit fiddling with your crucifixes.
09:51 PM on 12/13/2011
Atheism won't replace religion
Materialism will.
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darter22
Very funny, Scotty. Now beam down my clothes.
09:10 PM on 12/13/2011
No surprises here. Religion has always been an instrument of control by the powerful over the poor, ignorant, and downtrodden.
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Kiri the Unicorn
astronut
07:42 PM on 12/13/2011
I agree with this only up to a point. I think there will always be at least a few believers. In which of these countries is religion entirely absent?
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Claude Hosch
A single bracelet does not jingle
06:44 PM on 12/13/2011
I'm inclined to agree with the article to an extent. The Microwave Christians will succomb; True Christians rely on divine means as though there are no human means. We also consider human mean as something supplied by God.

True Christians have been warned and expect a great deception at a future time (Matt.24:23-24). Afterward a great falling away from the faith.

No surprise here.
05:27 PM on 12/13/2011
Good article. One addition I would make to the reasons given in this article for more atheism is a higher level of education than in the less-developed, more religious countries or societies. The author hinted at this, but I believe higher and better education directly contributes to people's understanding that events don't occur because of good or evil or some deity-driven purpose. With higher education comes the growing realization that events have quantifiable and rational reasons for their occurance. So as our general level of knowledge grows our tendency to turn to religion shrinks.
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angusmciver
Feels Empty
11:18 PM on 12/13/2011
Is that called believing in science? I agree with you here. Does all this coincide with the fact that many highly religious (right wing 'christian) people are blazingly ignorant of so many common sense matters? F&F gig harbor guy
05:25 PM on 12/14/2011
I do indeed believe it coincides with that fact. Thanks.
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nix28
Ignorance stirs my inner demon...Sorry.
04:49 PM on 12/13/2011
I think if his research included respondents stating that they had no need for faith because they felt secure across various domains, this would make sense. As it is, it's making a correlation causal. There are a number of factors that contribute to religion, and given that many persons that have security still follow religion, it serves to reason that security is not the sole predictive factor in whether religion will fade.
Viper
Former repub, still repenting
04:11 PM on 12/13/2011
reilgion is simply an excuse that allows supposedly rational beings to believe totally irrational ideas and not feell stupid about it among a like mind group of believers..
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gmikejake
resist evil
07:05 PM on 12/13/2011
It is, and always has been, a tool to be used by some for politcal purposes. Second rule for "successful tyrants;" take over the religions, appoint the holy people, become as god like in those religions as fast as possible. Just look at North Korea, for example.
And one of the most commonly used strategies is threat, fear. Our limbic systems are particularly attuned to threat, our amygdala, part of the system, is also central to emotions and memory, add that to what brain researchers have revealed about political orientation and hemispheric functioning and you have a perfectly natural "set up" for the political use of religion as a poltical tool.
Viper
Former repub, still repenting
03:49 PM on 12/13/2011
I always have found it hard to worship something that says I should stone kids to death working at the mall on Saturday, or some one who commits adultry, or which promoted slavary and is anti democacy as in king of kings and divine right to rule...

I'm just funny that way..... and I see more love in a puppy's face than in all of the religous right combined.

In fact my dog and my cat set a better example of how to be tolerant,get along and love each other.


Regards
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RadicalAgent
"on your left"
03:20 PM on 12/13/2011
can't happen soon enough
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TheTightwireGuy
Attempting to balance reason and passion
03:05 PM on 12/13/2011
While I applaud this author's contribution to our knowledge of what influences the likelihood of people being religious, his focus on external factors related to physical health and well-being completely ignores a key driver behind the appeal of a religious faith. That driver, in fact, is captured eloquently in the title of this wildly popular book that has lead MANY in our modern comfort-saturated Western lifestyle to a need faith in, for lack of a better word, God:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Purpose_Driven_Life

Mind you, I am in fact myself an atheist. But I refuse to accept the prediction by this author that "atheism will replace religion" for the simple fact that he has overconfidently stated that he has identified and controlled for ALL of the relevant variables that predict the state of a person's beliefs regarding the existence of deities.

And oddly, I would have thought that his background in psychology would have informed him about the inherent and inescapable psychological biases that cause people to routinely be overconfident about what they know. And tend to predict.

Try again, good sir, because I know you mean well.
03:35 PM on 12/13/2011
I didn't read that he "identified and controlled for ALL of the relevant variables that predict the state of a person's beliefs regarding the existence of deities" - which would be impossible anyway - I simply read that he conducted enough research to support a claim. If I were to split hairs, I guess I would ask for the word "probably" to be inserted before "replace" in the article's title.

I'd also argue that it will take many centuries for civilization as a whole to become enlightened and prosperous enough to reach the point where atheism replaces religion, if it even happens.
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TheTightwireGuy
Attempting to balance reason and passion
04:09 PM on 12/13/2011
Dont,

I applaud the revisons you propose to moderate the definite prediction offered by the article's title. To incorporate both of your suggestions, this might be a more appropriate one:

"A 'Healthier' World Breeds More Athiests"
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gmikejake
resist evil
07:07 PM on 12/13/2011
Please add threat and fear to the list. And, as per Dewey, the "quest for certainty."
Koiquoe
Have an unyielding faith in yourself
02:56 PM on 12/13/2011
So why are majority of Americans religious and not atheists? Is it because they live in an under-developed country or is it because they are afraid of the epidemic of diseases?
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RadicalAgent
"on your left"
03:25 PM on 12/13/2011
Religion Inc., lying to the masses for thousands of years
hard to shake off
Koiquoe
Have an unyielding faith in yourself
03:45 PM on 12/13/2011
You are arguing oranges. The author argues that people in less developed countries gravitate to religion because of their lower economic status and their high susceptibility to diseases. He further argues that people in more developed countries tend to reject religion. But if majority of Americans are religious and America is not an underdeveloped country, this calls into question the author's premise.
03:39 PM on 12/13/2011
It could easily imply that our social safety nets and health care system are woefully inadequate. We leave too many people behind.

From the article -

"Countries with a more equal distribution of income were lower on religiosity also."

Right now America has the income inequality of a banana republic.
Koiquoe
Have an unyielding faith in yourself
03:52 PM on 12/13/2011
Your argument about income inequality does not hold water. Per Gallup, Americans have become less religious while income equality has become more vast. Were your argument of income inequality true, there would be a rise in people claiming to be religious concomitant with people becoming poorer.
02:49 PM on 12/13/2011
Sounds like good news. From my experience, I've noticed that non religious people only turn to religion at the most difficult time, basically when they have lost touch with reality.
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gmikejake
resist evil
07:12 PM on 12/13/2011
Or are scared.
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Tom Pumroy
practical dreamer-artist Man Ray
02:36 PM on 12/13/2011
Isn’t it curious that the Bible predicts the same conclusion and for the same reasons and this is found in the Song of Moses through the New Testament? Moses predicted that when the Israelites became established in the Promised Land they would grow fat with abundance and throw God out the window as an unnecessary figment of their imaginations.

And this scenario has repeated itself with similar results throughout history since then. Our pride in our own ingenuity tends to diminish our reverence for God and then we transfer our worship from the Creator to the created; in other words we will worship ourselves in the place of God just as Lucifer would have it.

God has offered us His wisdom in the various scriptures and as I see it we disregard this wisdom at our own peril. The Bible says that without vision the people perish and from where I sit we are the living proof of this truism. Human leadership has been found drastically wanting just look around and it should be obvious that vanity and greed will always cause corruption, injustice and mayhem; the rich will always oppress the poor because human nature is what it is.

The wisdom of God is available but it must be utilized for it to be effective and we much prefer to do it our way even if we destroy the earth in the process.
03:10 PM on 12/13/2011
Or the con men who wrote your holy book knew what it would look like when the ruse was up and rather cleverly made the solution less attractive than the problem.
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Tom Pumroy
practical dreamer-artist Man Ray
03:54 PM on 12/13/2011
So let’s take one of these so called con men and analyze His program. Is it the fact that Jesus said that we should love our neighbors as we do ourselves that offends you? Or perhaps the notion that we should not return evil for evil, or that forgiveness and mercy are better than bitterness and revenge is that it?

Perhaps you do not agree that the qualities of kindness, justice and humility are superior to meanness, injustice and pride. Perhaps you believe that the rich are just plain special and have every right to take advantage of the poor, and since there is no heaven they shouldn’t be worried about not getting in or only getting in when camels jump through the needles eye.

Perhaps you believe that this world is not evil and stamps out anyone who would bring up such a crazy thought that it is evil. What a superb con to tell His followers that love conquers fear and death; who offers His followers life with more abundance and contentment than money can buy, who would want such a thing?
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RadicalAgent
"on your left"
03:20 PM on 12/13/2011
religion is only a problem when it is forced on other people
and the earth is not yours to destroy
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Tom Pumroy
practical dreamer-artist Man Ray
06:34 PM on 12/13/2011
Point one, Jesus told his disciples to simply walk away if someone was not interested so He was not forcing His philosophy on anyone; what insane people did with this advise is hardly His fault i.e. the corporate church. Point two no, the earth is not mine to destroy and the we I was referring too are the secularists who are as we speak destroying the earth because they refuse to see themselves as stewards of God’s earth and treat it with respect as a gift.
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gmikejake
resist evil
07:15 PM on 12/13/2011
Actually, if you can avoid the dangerous parts, which can be very difficult if you are "different," by their definitions of difference, it can be very interesting and, even, entertaining. All of those different gods. And then there are the great musical performances, and the dancing, and the talking in tongues, and the snake handling, and the faith healing, and the dramatic conversion experiences ... and that is just some of the major variants of Christianity.
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Schaef
02:33 PM on 12/13/2011
Someone who assumes one can only lean on God as a crutch would naturally come to the conclusion that God will cease to exist if enough people decline to believe in him.

Odd that your studies presume that people suffer from a need to fill a gap of uncertainty which social security cures, but not that people who accumulate strength and power inflate their sense of significance and suffer from the hubris that they can tame and even subvert the forces of nature. Wouldn't that be the flip side of the same coin, after all?