McCain's Base Problem

John McCain has been the nominee of his party for over a month now. He has no active opposition, no figure on his side of the aisle contesting him for leadership of the Republican party and the conservative movement.

And yet, Republicans are still voting against him. In Indiana McCain pulled in 77% of the vote, and he made an even worse showing with 73% in North Carolina. Even more troubling for McCain is that Huckabee is the leading protest vote. That's the religious right vote, the anti-choice crowd and the bedrock of President Bush's re-election victory.

In 2004 the GOP got the vote out by riling up the religious right and wooing the moderate middle. Post-Katrina and post-Iraq they have lost the middle. The press image of McCain as a maverick helps them with the middle, but they've still lost it. The religious right is mostly disgusted with the GOP - they haven't kept up their end of the bargain. The religious right lined up behind the GOP to ban abortion, negate gay rights, and violate the separation of church and state. In exchange for that, the religious right was okay with allowing the business class to take their pound of flesh. But the GOP had the House, Senate, and White House and while they did enough at the edges of those issues they did not remake America into a theocracy.

John McCain does not inspire these people. Ambivalent at best about his faith, he is not the "God warrior" Bush pretends to be. He is very much the Bob Dole candidate. McCain is the "his turn" guy and in Obama he is going up against the first Democratic candidate in a long while who has the base of voters who are really for their guy.

The religious right is not going to move Democratic, but like in 2006 they are probably going to stay home while the Democratic base is poised to make the turnout in 2004 seem like training camp. The religious right's relationship with the GOP isn't just yet a divorce, but Mommy and Daddy are for sure on a break.

(More coverage at OliverWillis.com)

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Comments

[57basque]

If the R.R. only knew how for wrong they are on just about every issue...this Land may yet learn how to Unite US all as Brothers and Sisters of Dog/god. The Great Spirits above US, are all asking us to dance. How can we convince the Rail Road of that? This Land will not survive peacefully if the repubs win. Though come a year from now, 28 years of pandering to the rich and rr, we may all just see the fruits of their ways.

[Zankee]

We will either be United in Life.., or, United in Death.., Guaranteed...!

[Sciguy]

It makes no difference if the religious right voted for Schmuckabee in the primaries. When it comes to the general election, they'll vote for McCain. They'll come out in DROVES to vote for McCain, because they think the other side is evil, and his base, if nothing else, is anti-evil. It makes no difference if the Repubs didn't hold up their end of the bargain - they're godly, right? So they're better than the ungodly Dems, right?

If McCain wants avid supporters instead of merely lukewarm supporters, all he has to do is pander a bit more. Be a bit Bushier. Hire an expensive hooker for his minister friends. Use the Goldenish Rule (Torture unto others as they have tortured unto you.). Promise (threaten?) to stay in Iraq for another 200 years.

I'd LOVE to see the right-wing nutcakes stay home on Election Day. But it ain't gonna happen - not when there's this intelligent dangerous-looking (ie, black) guy or this scary intelligent woman running for Prez. Yepperz, gotta vote agin them folks, they might be evil.

Remember "Don't change dicks in the middle of a screw - vote for Nixon in '72!"? Well, we're slightly less sexist then we used to be, so howzabout using a similar but female-ish word for the 2008 campaign? (Not the c-word - too McCainish):

Don't change bush in the middle of a date - vote for McCain in 2008!

[ucfjosh]

I think this original article is right, but for the wrong reason. McCain's problem won't be the ultra conservative religous right, his problem will be the ever-growing religous moderates who are moving from the right to the middle. I count myself among them, and this is a group that has moved past single-issue elections to look at the bigger picture and demand more.

This group cares more about issues of poverty and disease than republicans traditionally have, but isn't fully on board with outright welfare either. They're no longer sure that the war in Iraq is good or should continue, but also not sold on total withdrawl either. Things like corporate greed, war and genocide in oil-poor areas, and the African AIDS crisis have come to the forefront of the religous moderates and the republican candidates don't seem poised to address them. Meanwhile, things like immigration and gay rights don't fire them up at all like they do the far right. Most will remain anti-abortion, but have also come to realize that neither candidate is going to substantially impact abortion law in the near future.

Not unlike the Reagan Democrats of a generation ago, this is the base that is begging to be swayed to a more appealing candidate. It will take some convincing, but it's this moderate republican sector that is having a hard time finding the leadership they want on the issues they care about from McCain.

[Siryn]

And this fractured base will line up if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. Why else have they been salivating to get her as the nominee? They are just waiting to truck out all her dirty associations, things Senator Obama wouldn't indulge.

"President Hillary Clinton" - she can't be trusted to do what either the right or the left wants, because she's such a huge panderer.

[escrow7]

McCain is not the answer for America. I'm all for reducing appropriations and reducing pork barrel spending. That's where our revenue has gone. The 15,000,000,000 that went to big oil back in 2006, 500,000,000,000 in tax breaks for the top 1%, Pork barrel, Pork barrel, Pork barrel. McCain is an old bully whose time is drawing near. People don't like him, but that's what the Repuwaricans are backing. He has no real policy, He's clueless on the economy, a warmonger, and donesn't know what it will take to bring this country from the brink of doom.(well maybe not doom, but you get the point)
Clinton is a divider not a uniter! She is big time politics in action. She ran her campaign like Bush and the republicans have ran congress. Now both are in DEBT!!!!! People want change. We are tired of government special interest shelling out billions of our tax paying dollars to big oil and wasteful spending. Power to the People!!!!

[chris615]

Bottom line the way things are going now. If Latinos really think McCain is in their corner. The have another thing coming. Folks wake up. John McCain is a liar and if anyone thinks that he will allow illegal immigrants citizenship. His party is DEAD SET AGAINST that! Not happening.

People need to get over race, and all this nonsense because Obama will pick Hillary as the VP and she would only do DAMAGE to her and husband if she chooses the audacity to not accept it. Once we get that in place.

OLD GOAT McCain Here we come!

Obama/Clinton 08'

[CaseyBabes]

It is unfortunate the base is luke warm towards McCain but understandable. He's time and again reached across the aisle to team with Democrats on legislation that never should have been....the McCain-Feingold voting fiasco, for example. Worse still, he has at times teamed with the likes of Kennedy, a man poison to the Right. Too bad that associating with Kennedy obliterates the good that McCain's teaming with Lieberman promotes. Still, come November, what Republicans that do show up to vote will go with McCain. Bye Mac, hello President Obama.

[TampaDave]

McCain is facing (1) dissatisfaction with the Republican Party and (2) age concerns. Yet he still finds himself incredibly competitive in a year when Dems should romp. Why? The Democratic candidates suck! Obama is 2008 black version of the unbelievably liberal George McGovern and Hillary Clinton is Hillary Clinton. Obama has less than 3 years experience as a national legislator and an average career as an Illinois state legislator and community organizer before that. Big deal. Hillary Clinton ran with the highest nagativity ratings of any major candidate in modern history. The Democrats have such decent people in the wings, i.e., Evan Bayh, yet run leftist fringe candidates supported by groups like MoveOn.org, Code Pink, Daily Kos, PETA, the Huffington Post, New Black Panther Party, and other left wing organizations. Do you think the HuffPo censors will allow this post on-line, or will they squelch my First Amendment expression?

[Wanjiru]

...SIMPLY...

[texasprogressive]

Crawl back in your troll hole TampaDave. Obama is not as hard left as you think. I think he has the best chance of uniting this country. Certainly not McBomb.

[Susan60]

McCain is polling almost even with Obama and Clinton because these two still have seperate supporters. When people who support Clinton are asked if they would vote for McCain or Obama, they probably say undecided. Notice the poll numbers, 46 to 45. By my calculation that doesn't add up to 100. Same goes for Obama supporters when asked if they would vote for Clinton or McCain, many of those people probably stubbornly claim undecided as well. My guess is that once Dems choose their candidate, you will see those numbers for the Democratic Candidate increase. And once the media can take their eyes off the Democratic Primary and start scrutinizing McCain, which they promise they will but we'll see, I believe you will start seeing McCain's numbers go down a bit.
Obama is not a horrible unaccomplished candidate. He happens to be winning. He also has been able to accomplish something McCain has not been able to do with his base and party. Obama has instilled in people the one thing they desperately need right now. He has given them hope. Hope for the future, for their country and for their children. That is no small accomplishment no matter what people such as TampaDave want to think.

[Rog49Thomas]

Make no mistake.

This is going to be a bitter hard fought campaign.

After all the damage done by Pan, McCrazy should be 20 points behind.

Yet, he is not. He has a real chance of winning.

When confronted with what will be presented as a black (make that angry black), secret Muslim, anti Israel/Arab lvoing/terrorist loving, extremely liberal candidate, a lot of folk on the right are going to hold their noses and vote for Brother John. We have not seen the last of Pastors Wright and Farrakhan who will be used to Willie Horton Brother Neo. Nor the missing love of flag lapel pins.

All the Republicans need to do is sow enough doubt about him.
And present McCrazy as the safe pair of hands.

McCrazy is positioning himself - the maverick who does what's right and challenges his own party, the war hero (cue the music and get out those American flags). The tough as nails guy for these tough times.

Then look at the Democrat Party where many partisans of Sister Yoda or Brother Neo say they won't vote for the other guy.


Recipe for defeat.

[sparkandy]

The Democrats will pull together in November for the most part and vote for their candidate. I don't know how many Dems will vote for McCain over Obama but they must be out there, because I know two at least. But it's the Independents, progressive Republicans and conservative Democrats who will be yall's problem. The mudslinging hasn't even started yet. What we've got is two miserable choices once again and now we have to decide who we hate the least before we vote.

[txbyrd]

I'm a member of a boomer-age networking site modeled after MySpace. (Eons) You would think this would be a target demographic for McCain.

There is a forum for Obama supporters with 234 members and is pretty active. Obama's personal page has 274 'friends.'
There is a forum for Clinton with 104 members that is very quiet now. Clinton's personal page has 354 'friends'

No one has started a forum for McCain. On his personal page he has 3 'friends.'

[mindact]

We're really not worried about John McCain in the fall. Here's why, he's such an easy target to get swiftboated. If the repugs decide to play the Wright Ayers card, we will release the entire payload on John McCain.
We act as if the republican party are the only ones with the capability to swiftboat our opponents. We have well funded organizations that will turn McCain into an pantsy enemy collaborator (aka his vietnam days) in the fall. We also have the dirt on his drug addicted stepford wife. And oh get this, by the time we regurgitate how he abandoned his crippled wheelchair confined first wife, who stood by him b/w thick and thin for the shiny flashy rich lady he's walking around with as a trophy wife, there will be no woman on earth willing to vote for him. We don't even have to bring back his black love child given to us by George bush. Conservative will drop him like a bad habit....

This is even before we get into the policy issues. We just have to take the soundbites the DNC has been running both on the war and the economy a couple of notches up. Then the final indictment will be the picture of the oneness hug b/w GW and McCain. By the time we're done John McCain and George bush will be one and the same. If the republicans want to play dirty, in the words of George bush, bring it on

[txbyrd]

This is exactly the kind of campaign I hope to avoid.
Just put McCain and Obama on stage for a few debates. Piece of cake.

[Susan60]

YOu would think it would be a piece of cake but as long as our corporate media continue to cast McCain in the roll of Maverick, the task of the Democrats taking away uncommitted independents is much harder.
We need people to learn about the real McCain. Until they do, and until the media starts to scrutinize his past voting record and statements and show the country just how conservative and right wing he has been, then Democrats are in for a tough fight. And after 8 years of Bush, it shouldn't be that hard to dislodge the Republicans from power. The media needs to do its job of informing citizens with the information they need to know to make an educated vote. That shouldn't be that hard either, at least you would think.

[definitelyNOTmisterRIGHT]

txbyrd, that's the most intelligent, thought out thing i have seen here in days! why stoop to thier (repugs) level when we spend so much time saying how unethical they are? i can hardly wait for the day that obama & mccain are standing together on the big stage, debating. it will be obvious to all what has been obvious to most of us for quite some time, barack is the superior candidate and will win decisively in november. have a great day!

[biwee]

WOW! A good post. I am a recovering Republican. I did vote for Shrub in 2000. I just could not go for someone who said Willy Jeff was a great President. I actually think Shrub was elected in reaction to the Rodhamites in the White House. But, I soon saw that Shrub had turned his government over to Israel First Zionists, and I quickly recognized the scam and lies of the runup to the unnecessary war of choice for Israel in Iraq. Now, I will NEVER vote for another Repubbie, and I know that you do have tons of dirt on McCain. And, I hope you dump that dirt on him at the most opportune time.

[djk20042]

As a proud Operation Chaos operative, I have to sadly admit you're mostly spot on here.

McCain is a republican in name only----he's essentially a liberal. The base dispises him because of
* McCain-Feingold
* Amnesty and pandering to the illegals (including his recent speech to the racist group La Raza)

The only thing he does right is his anti-infanticide record--which is mostly pretty good and has improved with his changing views on stem cell research.

[JohnJames]

God, you conservatives are just too rich. You mean McCain now claims to be more worried about microscopic cells in a petri dish than real live suffering people. Glad he saw the light. By the way, since you're so worried about infanticide, be aware that Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran McCain apparently has no regard for the millions of children in the Middle East.

[definitelyNOTmisterRIGHT]

JohnJames, scary, but true! by the way, beautifully stated! keep up the good word!

[Litabell]

Proud to errode our right to vote? Congratulations. Myself, I take my voting privliages very seriously and find it appalling that lemmings like you try to dishonestly disrupt the system because some drug addled blow heart orders you to.

And I find it insulting as a liberal that you call McCain a liberal. He is a neocon through and through and a shameless panderer who has alot of skeletons in his closet. Fortunately, mindless robots like you are in the minority. I know lots of people who love their country more than their party and will vote their conscience this fall. I know many republicans who will not ever vote for McCain. They don't want their kids and grandkids sent to fight unnecessary and endless wars.

[UnbiasView]

McCain does have a base problem, I am a fiscal conservative and probably won't be voting for McCain because he is basically an independent with an R next to his name. I would rather see Obama win and let him try his socialist experiment for 4 years like Jimmy Carter did and hopefully a real conservative will stand up. After America sees what socialism brings, expect to see at least the next 12 years to go the other way.

[JohnJames]

You mean the country could end up like France or Canada? Last time I checked those wretches weren't fleeing "socialism" to come here. I only wish Obama could begin to accomplish so much. By the way, Carter did his best to warn the country about our dire dependence on foreign energy thirty years ago. He's been ridiculed by Republicans ever since but the joke's on us if , as seems quite likely, we're now slamming into peak oil totally unprepared.

[okfalls]

Canada is NOT a socialist country.

[UnbiasView]

"Carter did his best to warn the country"

He was President, why didn't he do a damn thing besides make himself look like a fool? You do know that the threat of another Jimmy Carter is what got the 2 Bush's into office. Worst Presidents ever (1. GWB 2. Carter)

BTW, I sure like Canada because 1 out of every 8 of the doctors they train in come to America to practice medicine :)

[soapington]

If you you think Carter and Obama are socialists, I shudder to think what you mean when you say you are a "fiscal conservative."

[HypocrisyAlarm]

That's an easy one. In real English "fiscal conservative" means ultrafascist. You know, like Mussolini.

[cct1984]

Unbiasview
I know how you feel...I'm tempted to do the same thing. If Obama believes half the things he says, then his presidency will be a disaster and will likely result in a true conservative being elected in the next cycle. The only thing that gives me pause is the war on terrorism. If Obama becomes the president he will pull out of Iraq and pretty much cede the Middle East to the extremist. All the gains that have been made will be gone and the lives lost will have been for nothing. Obama is nothing more than a black Jimmy Carter, albeit with more charisma. If he thinks he can simply negotiate his way out of the problems facing us in the Middle East vis-a-vis Iran, then he is dangerously naive—his plan is nothing more than appeasement. Ahmadinejad will make a fool of him the way Khomeini did Jimmy Carter during the American hostage crisis.

Pulling the lever for him will be a tough choice. Decisons..­.decisons.­..decision­s...

[UnbiasView]

Trust me, vote for Obama. Watch what happens when he tries to take oil companies profits . . . the economy will be destroyed, watch what happens when he comes up short on trying to put in place universal health care . . . it will never happen, watch what happens when he passes hos global poverty act and we send $1 trillion more than we already give to other countries.

[Susan60]

Thank God that people like you are becoming extinct, like the dinosaurs. Obama can absolutely do no worse than the President that you no doubt voted for not once, but twice. If voting for Bush is any indication of your judgement, then I think it's a fair assessment for me to make that I shouldn't listen, nor should anyone else, to a word you say. Let's consider this poster the Bill Kristol of this thread.

[nippersdad]

Congratulations! No Republican talking point or fearmongerers' dire warning need ever die with adherents such as yourselves. We now know what type of literature will be filling George's "library." You do realize that your point about "ceding" the middle east is an admission of Imperialist U.S. policy under conservative rule? What was all of that tripe about being a "fiscal conservative"?

[definitelyNOTmisterRIGHT]

cct1984, wow, you are delusional! what "gains" are you referring to? i hope you are just "trying" to be funny!

[definitelyNOTmisterRIGHT]

UnbiasView, do you actually want a rerun of the last 4 or 5 horrible republican presidents? i can't believe anyone would truly want anything resembling this criminal bunch (nixon,for­d,reagan,b­ush,baby bush) in our highest office again! utterly embarrasing!

[UnbiasView]

Odd that if Reagan was so bad you would see Obama & Clinton mention his name with positive comments. Only far left wackjobs that are socialists didn't like Reagan.

Couldn't argue Bush II, he sucks.

[dadw5boys]

They vote their pocket books thats all. Tax cuts on capital gains they love it they can buy oil furtures and drive the cost of oil and all commodities sky high. MAKE A FORTUNE AND PAY FEW TAXES.

[UnbiasView]

Doesn't everyone vote their pocket books? Who wants to have higher taxes and a decreased spending power?

[definitelyNOTmisterRIGHT]

responsible, compassionate, intelligent americans!

[Danny]

"But the GOP had the House, Senate, and White House and while they did enough at the edges of those issues they did not remake America into a theocracy". Darn, I won't vote for him, he musta been on the loony edges-- voting for Obama anyway.

[Paul]

There is no one challenging McCain for leadership of the Conservative movement because the Conservative movement will be consigned to the dustbin of history in November.

Conservative Republicans have failed at everything in the last 7 years. It's only philosophy - that government is too big and inefficient - is a bankrupt one. All the successful European countries have MORE government and MORE taxes and a better lifestyle for their citizens as a result.

We may be a few years away from the general realization, but Socialism is the way forward.

[fflambeau]

Oliver,

You are exactly correct and are the only person I have seen make this analysis; the mainstream media have not mentioned this at all (maybe because they treat McCain as the "maverick" saint). Fact is, he is the presumptive nominee and about 1/4 of the small Republican party doesn't like him! I agree with you too that the religious right will stay at home and not work hard for McCain. He realizes this also and that was the reason for his talking up "conservative judges" (code word for anti-abortion judges) yesterday. He knows he has a problem. He has other problems too: like age (he'll be 72 (not 71 as Newsweek mistakenly recently wrote) in August; he publicly admitted knowing nothing about economics; he has called for the US to be in Iraq for the "next 100 years" (but has quickly backpeddled from this once he saw the political fallout). Good analysis, Oliver.

[UnbiasView]

Please explain who you think these "Conservative Republicans" are in Washington right now because I haven't seen anyone decreasing the size of government which is a staple of conservatives.

[UnbiasView]

"Socialism is the way forward"

It is if you really want to destroy this country, can you name me 1 government program that is run well and is efficient?

[UPer]

And can you explain to me how big business can solve our problems? It seems that big business, which runs our government now, has screwed this country more than any government program has ever done. Commodity traders, large financial institutions, Wall Street, and big business has fed off the little people ever since the Repukes took control of Congress and finally had the troika...P­residency, Congress and the Senate. Tell me you think this country is better off now than it was during Carter. At least Carter didn't start illegal, immoral wars, shred the Constitution, and make the rich richer. I've always felt that the high oil prices at that time was a OPEC, oil company led attempt to sink a highly moral person who actually cared about the average American. Right now the conservative repuke uses the religious right for their own financial gain by 'supporting' anti abortion, anti gay, and patriotism causes. They don't care one twit about these causes....it's a way for them to further their own agenda which is to increase their portfolio on the backs of the middle class and poor. Too bad the American Sheeple are too lazy to think and read. I fear McCain will wave the flag and there we are, another 4 years of Bush.

[Susan60]

A government program under a Republican you mean? No, I can't. And why is that? Because Republicans hate government and so what do you do when you hate something? You destroy it and make sure it doesn't work and then you look back at the carnage and say, see? Government is evil and doesn't work.
Under Bill Clinton, Government worked just fine. Take FEMA for example. FEMA was a cabinet post that functioned extremely well. Under Bush, it was a fiasco run by a former horse judge.
On the other hand let's take the Republican philosophy of privatizing everything. That works well, doesn't it? Not only has billions of dollars gone missing in Iraq because we have privatized everything, but 12 of our soilders have been electrocuted by KBR because of faulty wiring and NO governement oversight. Yeah, those silly Republicans. They sure know how to run a government. Oh yeah, no they don't.

[nippersdad]

Medicaid and Medicare used to be vastly more efficient than their free market oriented parallells (still is to a degree), until conservatives eliminated their ability to bargain for prices. FEMA used to be a great agency...until conservatives put horse trainers in charge of it. The Military used to be great until conservatives gutted its' ability to defend the U.S. in overseas, imperialist wars of choice. We used to have the best public infrastructure in the world (education, power, water, roads, communications, etc.) until conservatives starved its' maintenance and improvement budgets through their incessant tax cuts. ........

Now, all of those "inefficient" European socialist countries outrank us in the efficiency of their government programs. congratulations.

[cct1984]

"...Socialism is the way forward."
Wow, liberals finally show their true colors--I give you credit for being honest. I say let the voters decide: socialism or capitalism. BTW, If you truly believe in socialism why don't you move to Cuba or Venezuela?

[nippersdad]

One might also ask if you truly believe in fascism, why not move to Burma? It would appear to have worked well for them (snark). There are vast degrees of difference between a capitalist country with social controls (what the U.S. was after FDR) and a totalitarian regime calling itself a socialist country (Cuba). Conflating them does your argument no good insofar as you only end up sounding ignorant.