A Pandemic Worse than the Swine Flu

Five billion are killed by a virus. Sound familiar? Think the reaction to swine flu. The 1995 science fiction film starring Bruce Willis and Brad Pitt called 12 MONKEYS identifies a terror group implicated in this plot. This was a red herring (diverted attention).

Willis failed in his return from the future and doomsday was not prevented. It occurred to me that our current imagined pandemic might well be the modern day equivalent. Again, we are focused on the wrong target. Maybe there is a lesson to be learned.

As a starter, let us review where we are on this subject. RJ Eskow provided in HuffPo an excellent summary, entitled, The Meaning of Swine Flu, the Universe, and Everything. If you read through the comments and trace some of the references, you can take a comedic pathway leading to Jeff Horwich's Don't Cough on Me Alejandro (sung to Don't Cry for me Argentina), a satire found in Face Book. Also, too, you just can't skip another HuffPo posting, this one in the Comedy section, by Juliet Jeske, on Congresswoman Michele Bachmann's Guide to the Swine Flu. You will then be trapped into yet another Comedy HuffPo, this one by Will Menaker, on CongressBorat Bachmann, from Minnesota, always in the top ten among states in educational achievement and well being (health). Yet, funny, but they produce a Governor Jesse Ventura and can't extricate themselves from the continuing farce with Al Franken, known as their senatorial race. But I digress.

You might think that I am making a joke of the swine flu, for my April 24 posting was entitled, Benefits of the Swine Flu Scare, followed on May 5 with Cinco de Mayo and the Swine Flu. But no, my message is deeper, for these seeds of hysteria provide clues about our future. You can wonder about how we got ourselves into this dilemmic mode: on the one hand, we have something that will almost never happen (a serious swine flu epidemic), while on the other, there is death, worried mothers and panic.

Let's first look at the reality. You can go to my Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity (see box on the right) or Planet Earth and Humanity, where hard numbers are provided. To summarize:

1. The regular flu kills one in a thousand, while the swine flu seems closer to one in a hundred. That previous avian flu of a decade ago has a 60% mortality rate, but it is not all that contagious. The fear is that the swine flu will morph into a more dangerous form. The potential of this happening is very low, and, in any case, it is appearing that all 50 or so variations might turn out to be treatable with one vaccine. So, certainly, continue the vigilance and spend my tax dollars to develop a common vaccine, but don't close down countries and schools, and, by the way, tourists can safely return to Mexico and Hawaii.

2. The numbers are embarrassingly obvious. Since the so-called epidemic was announced only a little more than a month ago, we have had about 500 cases and 3 deaths a day. I wouldn't want to be one of those statistics, but consider that a million people daily contract some form of flu and at least a thousand die, every day, usually from complications (heart, pneumonia, etc.). This terrifying swine flu is thus hardly detectable noise. I might further add that traffic fatalities number 3000/day, but we drive on.

Why, then, has the world, epitomized by the World Health Organization (which can best be appreciated if you know the internal workings of the United Nations), gone bonkers over the swine flu? I would like to speculate on the reason. I think it has to do with our political way of life influenced by the world wide web (WWW), as sensitized by the terroristic act of September 11, 2001. Add the palpable need to cover your rear.

First came airport security. From all reports, the vast funds allocated and the time we waste have not made us any safer. Yet, the great majority of the public likes it. Of course this is symptomatic of our world today where most believe in the afterlife but have doubts about evolution and global warming.

In particular, the masses are supersensitized to any threat. So when you mix in the World Wide Media (WWM) and WWW, the reaction can be instantaneous and overwhelming. I early recognized the power of this medium, so thought that the Huffington Post would be an ideal vehicle to share my thoughts, for the instant feedback feature of these virtual portals, in my mind, would provide power to the people, replacing protest marches. Clearly, I have not learned how to galvanize action because my 52 HuffPostings have influenced few, if any. Part of this failure I ascribe to the fact that I tend to focus on Peak Oil, Global Warming and related topics. There is no threat of early death in my articles.

Swine flu, though, conjures dark images of your mortality. The communications industry, like CNN, saturates air time on such issues because they know people will watch. The WWW picks it up and decision-makers are hopelessly influenced. The cascading circle of information gains a life of its own. The truth is that the truly dangerous virus is not the swine flu, but the medium itself. The pandemic is this resultant overreaction.

My simple solution is to jump on the bandwagon and complete THE VENUS SYNDROME: The Novel. (In the box on the right, click on SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, and go to the Free Preview.) Taking a cue from this posting, if compelling logic does not work for global warming, perhaps fear might.

Comments

[Barnaby Dawson]

The rate of deaths a day you calculate is pretty meaningless for four reasons.

Firstly severe cases are more likely to be detected so this would bias upwards a mortality rate calculated from detected cases.

Secondly deaths lag infections in time, the initial phase of infection follows an exponential trend and so calculating [deaths so far/cases so far] will produce a strong bias downwards on mortality rates.

Thirdly comparing the seasonal flu with the very beginning of a new pandemic (where by definition the numbers infected are low) is misleading.

Fourthly as the numbers infected so far is low (mostly in first world countries) many of the patients have got a much better standard of care than we could expect in a third world country during the pandemic and hence the death rate now will be lower than that at the height of a wave. Also during a wave of infections there will be deaths from communicable secondary infections so the overall mortality will increase.

The numbers are very easy to misinterpret. In previous pandemics there was not a high correlation between mortality rates both between countries and between waves anyway.

The mortality rate probably hasn't been dropping over the last month. Its more likely that this is measurement bias from using recorded figures (as your testing gets better you detect more people with mild forms of the disease). Where is your source for the claim that these versions have been around in "most communities for many decades"?

[Patrick Takahashi - Huffpost Blogger]

Let me repeat that your point of view is the more responsible one, the attitude that should be maintained by governments. My concern is more about the hype that exaggerates the reality.

Regarding whether H1N1 has been in our various communities for a long time, consider that at least 50 strains are now circulating. Only one can be traced to the recent Mexican version. Go to:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-tc-nw-swine-flu-0522-0523may23,0,4164447.story

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124346642019860251.html

Thank you for your thoughts, but let's see if this Mexican swine flu makes a serious comeback in the Fall. It is just my personal opinion (based on previous epidemics reported in Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity--see box on right) that this will just not happen. Governments can then claim credit for being responsive and effective. Nothing wrong with that. In the meantime, it does make sense to develop an appropriate vaccine for H1N1, just in case.

[kwinyan]

I wasn't aware of the WHO going bonkers, but of the media sensationalizing off their information and whatever else they could. It seemed like a big distraction with an element of fantasy -- that of a deadly foreign virus sweeping the country and planet.

[Patrick Takahashi - Huffpost Blogger]

Yes, you're right that the media have been the actual virus. Anything related to the United Nations always takes the pathway of least political resistance, which, in the case of swine flu, means being cautious. This conservatism is then interpreted by the media to be serious. As only one example, WHO's six-phased pandemic alert level is in itself a problem. It is now at 5, the second highest point, for almost no reason at all. So this big international gathering announces that the Pandemic Alert Level is raised to 5:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/29/swine.flu/index.html

and this nano-pandemic is thusly exaggerated.

[Barnaby Dawson]

Firstly no one knows the likelihood of the swine flu becoming more dangerous. Essentially all we have to go on is the three 20th century pandemics. In all of these the flu became more dangerous in the second wave. In two by a little and in one by a lot. It would seem more reasonable to say that this strain is likely to become worse and has a significant probability of getting much worse. The seasonal flu is not a good comparison because this new strain will be evolving at terrific rate as it has to adapt to a new host. The evolutionary pressures on a strain that has just jumped host are very different to a seasonal strain too.

Secondly you ignore the demographics of mortality for this flu strain. Its killing people with a much higher life expectancy than the seasonal flu. That should be taken into account.

Thirdly by your reasoning almost every cause of death would fail to be newsworthy because it doesn't kill 0.25-0.5 million a year. The view that a new event, that could cause 0.5 million excess deaths (probably significantly more), is not worth strong media attention is bizarre.

Do criticise the reporting of terrorism, the worries over the MMR vaccine and the media attention paid to reality TV. Do weigh the various possible counter measures to the swine flu according to their efficacy and cost. But please don't underestimate the worst new threat to public health in decades.

[Patrick Takahashi - Huffpost Blogger]

Please reread my posting, for many of your concerns were, in fact, qualified and/or justified. Anyway, consider:

2. The numbers are embarrassingly obvious. Since the so-called epidemic was announced only a little more than a month ago, we have had about FIVE HUNDRED cases and THREE deaths a day. I wouldn't want to be one of those statistics, but consider that a MILLION people daily contract some form of flu and at least a THOUSAND die, every day, usually from complications (heart, pneumonia, etc.). This terrifying swine flu is thus hardly detectable noise. I might further add that traffic fatalities number 3000/day, but we drive on.

The mortality rate has actually been dropping during the past month and H1N1, at least those 50 "other" versions, has probably been in most communities for many tens of decades. But, then, you represent the prevailing view of the masses. This is why I felt compelled to provide a counterpoint.

[HeevenSteven]

Hello Patrick, thanks for another thoughtful blog.

Our corporate media has failed miserably. CNN doesn't even have a science staff now, no producers, nothing; they got rid of them all. Don't need any pesky science geeks scaring us about global warming; people might stop shopping. Please keep up the good fight.

[Patrick Takahashi - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks again for your thoughts. Coming from you, this is meaningful.

[ModernTimes1]

Only one comment, 12 Monkeys itself one of the best commentaries on the subject of pandemics and possible repercussions thereof.
As well as Pitt's best role, I might add.

[Patrick Takahashi - Huffpost Blogger]

Okay, now, how do we cure this epidemic, or, at least take this opportunity to press for better causes. You might take a look at a previous posting I had on a related subject:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/patrick-takahashi/evolution-global-warming_b_168827.html

Aloha.