The signs are dismal. Yes, the economy, but worse regarding the dual hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming. First, oil will apparently remain under $60/barrel for several years. Peaking at $147/barrel just this past July, Goldman Sachs expects oil to drop to $30/bbl this quarter. I must warn you that they did predict crude would rise to $149 by the end of last year, missing by about $100/bbl. But our U.S. Department of Energy predicted that oil prices would average $43.25/barrel this year (it was $99.55/bbl last year), and further, projected that the price will be $54.50/bbl next year. That agency has historically missed the mark with uncommon regularity. What if, though, GS and the USDOE are right this time? On top of all this, Secretary Designate Steven Chu, at his confirmation hearing, was picked up supporting coal and nuclear power. Yes, he had to balance his views for the Republicans, but the media emphasized that coal-nuclear point.
Second, millions probably won't perish from a terribly hot summer anytime soon. Well, that's good, but the problem compounding all this is a lot of misinformation being reported, including reports that the planet has cooled since George Bush has been President. The media likes to play with these stories, confusing the masses on something that still results in really cold winters and sea level rise that cannot be appreciated, especially if you happen to live in Kansas or D.C.
What are so bad about relief from climate change and LOW gasoline prices? Decision-making! The lack of crises will only further delay the need to take vital steps regarding energy and the environment. And time is of the essence.
Over the past few years, the United States has annually used about 100 quadrillion Btus of energy. Let's toss away that dimension (but analyze in terms of a hundred), so of that sum, 40 was oil, 23 coal and natural gas each, 8 nuclear and 7 (a bit high, but it was 6 in 2003 and looms to hit 7 soon) renewable energy. Biomass was 3.6, hydropower 2.5 and everything else was noise, although wind power is up to 0.32 and rising. Note that our energy consumption has not gone up much (98 in 2003), but, surprisingly, renewables have barely increased a grand total of one (1) in that period, partly because hydropower has declined. Yes, only a one percent improvement since 2003. Part of the reason for this lackluster advancement is the lack of enthusiasm for needed change.
But, unless we take decisive action now, we will have missed another opportunity. For the sake of Planet Earth and Humanity, we must immediately enact two meaningful measures, a national one and the other international.
1. First, Congress must add a $1/gallon gasoline investment surcharge now. We moaned at $4/gallon gasoline when Europeans were paying more than $10/gallon. The national price for premium today is less than $2/gallon. A whole dollar only kicks the price up to $3/gallon. This fund would accrue about $125 billion/year. Work out the rebates and subsidies, but spend most of the revenues on renewable energy research, demonstration and commercialization.
2. On a global scale, the G8 nations need to agree at their 2009 Italian Summit on a 1 cent/pound carbon dioxide remediation duty linked to crude oil at $30/barrel, to proportionately increase such that the levy would be 5 cents/pound carbon dioxide at $150/bbl crude. The sum collected could amount to about $200 billion/year just in the U.S. Funds should be used by each country to install smart grids and accelerate renewable energy investments. At 2 cents/pound, would almost double coal-fired electricity, making unnecessary any renewable energy tax credits, bringing into competitiveness wind power and, perhaps too, utility scale solar thermal power.
But, as explained in my HuffPo of January 5, nothing will happen because there is no crisis. A potential fatal flaw of our society is the inability to make tough decisions absent any man-made or natural calamity. No doubt a tepid cap and trade attempt will be made and there will be sincere bluster about a workable replacement for the Kyoto Protocol. But those border on paralysis by analysis.
This $325 billion judgment palls in comparison to the Wall Street rescue package ($700 billion), the upcoming Obama stimulus program ($1 trillion) and the Middle East Wars ($3 trillion). Yes, this is comparing apples and oranges, for one, people hate taxes and can almost accept loans or fight terrorism, especially when you don't feel the daily bite. Nevertheless, this Peak Oil/Global Warming fund will insure for stable energy prices while providing development insurance to avoid an impending cataclysm far worse than our current relative hangnail.
The American public believes, more than 90%, for example, in an ethereal concept such as a God. Is it possible for the Obama Administration to believe in the overwhelming evidence provided by scientists and specialists about the impending doom being forecast from the crush of Peak Oil and Global Warming, and, thereby, take immediate and appropriate action? Yes they can, so do it now!