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Paul A. London

Paul A. London

Posted: December 27, 2010 11:20 AM

Unemployment and Economic History

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If you want to understand what the U.S. faces today with no prospect of bringing unemployment down to 3 or 4 percent you need to read Since Yesterday, Frederick Lewis Allen's book written in 1939 about the Depression years in America. Allen was the editor of Harpers magazine. In 1930 he had written a classic book about the events and attitudes that marked the Roaring 20s. Since Yesterday, on the Depression decade is more relevant today.

What Allen shows is that the businessmen of the 1920s, who had inspired awe, those who Calvin Coolidge called the "Big Men" of the country, and who the country had admired and trusted, were completely discredited by 1933 when Roosevelt took office. Herbert Hoover had gamely taken the advice of the Big Men and it failed him. They had no idea how to end the Depression. Andrew Mellon, Treasury Secretary to Coolidge and Hoover and one of the richest men in America, and Samuel Insull, the Chicago-based "leverager" of utility stocks were facing de facto exile. Richard Whitney, once head of the NY Stock Exchange would eventually go to prison in handcuffs. By 1932, these erstwhile "masters of the universe" were the object of almost universal scorn.

Americans forget this history. When I hear people say that Obama has to listen to business leaders I wonder what they think these leaders have learned since 1933. They and their followers are recommending word for word the policies their predecessors recommended to Hoover --- balance the budget, cut spending, don't tax business. What the American public should learn from this repetitive baloney is that there is a big difference between believing in competitive private enterprise, which we should, and believing that business leaders have insights about policies to end joblessness which they do not.

Frederick Lewis Allen did not stop at revealing the uselessness of the "Big Men's" locker room incantations. He saw the weaknesses of the New Deal too: It never hit on a fully successful approach to unemployment. Joblessness fell from 25 percent when FDR took office to just over 14 percent 4 years later but then went back up to 17 percent in 1938. Allen acknowledges that the New Deal was an improvement, but it was not satisfactory anymore than a few percent reduction in unemployment to 8 or 7 percent will be satisfactory in the next three or four years.

Roosevelt's advantage over Obama is that Americans felt he cared for them. In "the legislation which he sponsored," Allen says, "(ordinary Americans) read a genuine friendliness toward them, a genuine desire to help them." .

Since Yesterday was published in 1940 so Allen had not seen what finally ended the Depression. What did was World War II. It put 13 million Americans in the armed forces and millions more into defense jobs making ships, planes and munitions. It was financed largely by the Federal Reserve bond-purchasing program far larger than the New Deal's "pump priming" and today's modest "stimulus" programs. Financing the war took roughly 25 percent of Gross Domestic Product for four years.

What the U.S. needs today to drop unemployment to a politically acceptable 3 or 4 percent is the peaceful equivalent of that war, a very large infrastructure bank charged with modernizing the public plant --- transportation, power and water systems, communications, recreation facilities, and more. The Fed should buy the bonds of such a bank, charging it low interest rates, just as it bought Treasury bonds at low interest rates to fund World War II. (This is fundamentally how the Chinese are funding the impressive explosion of public works in their country.) If the U.S. does not create such a large works program, I believe we are going to face a long period similar to the 1930s with corrosively high unemployment. This will discredit democratic governments just as it did during the Depression with all the attendant risks.

The argument for a big works program is based not on economic theory but on concrete historic experience. The history is there for us to draw on. What about today's business heirs to Mellon, Whitney and Insull? A massive infrastructure program financed by the Fed would be the best thing that could happen to American business. Unfortunately historic experience and even the memory of money in their pockets has never been enough to convince the egotistical "Big Men" of business that they are not as important as they believe they are and that sometimes the country needs government to play this role.

 
 
 
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09:02 PM on 12/31/2010
The global elite is what destroyed the world and what it will continue to do. Soon there will not be any corner in the world that can be developed and their resourses stolen.
It does not matter how many aide packages or medical packages are delivered overseas for a corporation to recieve a tax break or juggle a different currency to make a buck-soon the whole thing will fall apart because of greed.
Soon all of the money stolen from the bommers will be squandered and none will be left for anyone
The banks and mortgage companies continue to steal.
If the economy was getting as good as they say-there would be no need to rob people.
Who are they trying to kid?.
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KWiedemer
Denver Unemployment Examiner
11:08 AM on 12/28/2010
"Unfortunately historic experience and even the memory of money in their pockets has never been enough to convince the egotistical "Big Men" of business that they are not as important as they believe they are and that sometimes the country needs government to play this role."

Well stated; the problem is the 'big men' include those in Washington 'running' the country - the big men alre also are the government.

Denver Unemployment Examiner
http://www.examiner.com/unemployment-in-denver/kelly-wiedemer
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Trepasky
Sanity is neither free nor easy
07:31 AM on 12/28/2010
Without demand for products, businesses will cut back employment and/or hours/wages. The unemployed are unable to create demand, as necessities and shelter costs consume any funds they have. We also have a large number of unemployed who do not receive any benefits. They are spending even less and all unemployed are or will be seeking aid form food banks, and other community services. With the Feds cutting TANF, the burden of their needs will be a drain on local and state services.
Instead of addressing the problem, the Feds are shifting the problem to the states. Corporations and Banks are profit driven. They will not change the jobless problem other than adding more unemployed.
Public works and ultrastructure based projects will give the unemployed an opportunity to earn a living which would help us move forward.
One issue that seems lost in much of the press is normal population growth needs at least 150,000 jobs per month created. November's, 39,000 jobs means 110,000 of those entering the work force will not find a job.
The wealthy continuing to invest their money into stocks and financial instruments, does not create jobs, but does make for lovely bonuses for banks and businesses.
Our country will continue to struggle and many Americans will suffer because Congress panders to the interests of only 2% of our population.
If Congress was serious about fixing the problem, they would have done something during the past 2 years instead of just saying "NO".
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raphaelbonee
The snake was right "the gods lie"
05:59 AM on 12/28/2010
The argument for a big works project is sound. It would create jobs. It would require government spending.

My problem with it is as follows. What then. The government spending is unsustainable. There isn't the demand to transition to as there was after WWII. The industrial base, the manufacturing base is not there to pick up after the spending is done. You would be priming an empty well.

There is this mind set that refuses to see that business as usual will not work. It was never intended to work. No one who has ever started a company said to themselves I'm not going to patent my products and processes. I do not need nor am I entitled to that protection. Yet that is exactly what we as a country have been asked to do in accepting free trade.

I guarantee you if government were to declare patent protection illegal there would be no end to the howling and the gnashing of teeth. All this is pretty straight forward. Royalty fee a company does well ... no royalty fee a company goes bankrupt. Tariffs this country does well ... no tariff this country goes bankrupt.

So how is it that everyone in the country bought intothe idea of freetrade. The answer "debt". It's ok to be in debt. Debt isa good thing. Buy on credit, easy loans job or no job. Debt makes it easyto ignore the fact that nothing is made here anymore

There's an insanity to it all.
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dporterdvd
Progressive DemoCats Are Lion Hearted
03:09 AM on 12/28/2010
Great article. Most people agree that depression era unemployment ended because of WWII and defense industry jobs which means THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PAID FOR MOST OF THE JOBS WHICH ENDED UNEMPLOYMENT. As long as today's corporations just sit on profits and refrain from hiring, the only thing which will end current unemployment is massive hiring by the federal government.
nothingchanges
too soon old, too late smart
10:52 PM on 12/27/2010
IMPO...........Facts will not sway the decisions made in Congress. The only thing of consequence there is money. This is the real "Green Economy"....... not the farce that most of us espouse.

Corporations paid for their elections. They, in turn, work for those that pay them the most. Those are the only facts that matter, at least, until campaign finance reform becomes a reality, or voters learn to ignore paid commercials. (I don't hold out much hope for either of these to happen any time soon).
04:30 PM on 12/27/2010
Govt was not created to be a welfare state nor a job creator. If govt would just have done their job in 1920 well as 1990 and protect consumers from bank fraud/ponzi schemes then most of the bubbles would not have occurred.
05:24 PM on 12/27/2010
If private business would do its job and create jobs, the government wouldn't have to be a job creator.
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MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
08:00 PM on 12/27/2010
Unfortunately, the job of private businesses is not to create jobs, but to make profits for the owners of the business. That is the bottom line of any business. Jobs are only created when needed to make a profit by producing a good or a service.
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ritamary
02:00 PM on 12/28/2010
If private business would do its job and stop all their scams then maybe the Great Depression and the Great Recession would not have happened.
04:14 PM on 12/27/2010
Interesting article, but the situation today is so very different from 1930.

Trillions of fed debt.
Trillions in bank debt.
Trillions in consumer debt.

Printing more money will only pass the problems to our kids.
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Silverpegasus
07:46 PM on 12/27/2010
Is it really? I don't think so.
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MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
08:04 PM on 12/27/2010
But without some investment in this country, without the middle class, our kids will have very serious problems anyway-- unless you are one of the upper 2%. Those kids will only have to worry if they don't lock themselves behind their gates.

The only way we can consider paying back the trillions of debt is to start producing in this country, and for that, we need a stronger infrastructure.
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Frank Jenkins
Cubs Fan, Ph.D Common Sense & Reality
03:47 PM on 12/27/2010
Spot on article
03:41 PM on 12/27/2010
America has a habit of doing the same things over and over and expecting a different result. What the country needs is STABILITY. Put a moratorium on spending, make banks re evaluate mortgages that are in jeopardy (to keep owners in the home), extend unemployment benefits to keep people from being poor, enforce regs on businesses to create jobs at home (to bring unemployment down), force the top 2% to carry the burden of taxes needed in the stability, we need peacetime work projects (infrastructure, clean energy, dams, bridges, highways and beautify America etc), lift the cap on SS and Medicare to take care of the seniors, allow elder unemployed to collect SS with no penalty. THESE ARE CHANGES, not the same bad 2% voices pushing the failed policies of the past.
04:30 PM on 12/27/2010
Typical lib - the answer is always someone else's money
05:31 PM on 12/27/2010
Conservatives don't have any answers to fixing the economy that Bush ruined. And those tax cuts for the rich that they love so much don't create jobs. The Wall Street Journal says Bush has the worst record of job creation on record. http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/01/09/bush-on-jobs-the-worst-track-record-on-record/
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Silverpegasus
07:49 PM on 12/27/2010
Yep, just like Wall Street used OUR mortgages and 401Ks to do their unscrupulous gambling on derivatives, CDOs, etc.
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MeinNH
Ooooo Silly Me
02:25 PM on 12/28/2010
Good ideas.
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03:26 PM on 12/27/2010
Bring back the J.T.P.A.. Best thing Quale ever did and it did help many.
03:11 PM on 12/27/2010
'Player Piano', author Kurt Vonnegut's first novel 58 years ago, pointed out a key aspect to today's unemployment; automation and technology is a two edged benefit. Massive educational efforts are required to open opportunities in green and sustainable energy production as well as in the massive upgrading required for the country's infrastructure. Food production depends on oil and the world is consuming oil 3 times faster than it's discovering it (the decade of greatest discovery was the 1970s) German and American Military planning accepts the reality of Peak Oil. Last week's modern miracle of non-aging mice has a certain implied and ominous portent. Henri Poincare, the famous French scientist and mathematician, said,"Science progresses, funeral by funeral." evidently, so does common sense. Unless it regresses, election by election.
Linda from Deerfield
Paying attention
06:16 PM on 12/27/2010
You make it seem that we are the ones cursed with interesting times.
08:04 PM on 12/27/2010
And just think. In that book it was supposed to be funny that the country elected an actor as president.
02:30 PM on 12/27/2010
Unfortunately, we have "Republicans" to deal with, so as things stand, this isn't going to happen. There are a host of reasons why we should be making these kinds of investments, and it all boils down to solving the employment and economic problems in the long term, and making investments that will give our country the ability to compete going into the future. That's what's so important about investments in education, technology, innovation and infrastructure, and why we need to eliminate those tax breaks for the wealthy, because that money should be being used to invest in our future (we're still benefitting from investments in innovation and infrastructure made in the 50's and 60's, and the only reason we were able to make those investments is because we had sensible, progressive income taxes on the top income brackets). Unfortunately, Republicans instead believe that incentivizing outsourcing to 3rd world labor markets, and giving tax breaks to people who do little to create jobs here, is the way to solve our economic and employee problems, and as long as they have at least 41 votes in the Senate, they intend to disallow our government from doing anything else.
wsdave
Abusive or Insulting? I won't be responding.
02:28 PM on 12/27/2010
The problem with a modern day WPA is that while the first one DID create some pretty cool infrastructure for the country, it didn't actually pull the country out of a depression: It took the war to do that.

Ultimately, the problem isn't that the "big men" ruined the economy, its that you and I did. WE borrowed beyond our means. WE had to have the brand new cars and big screen TVs. WE had to buy houses that were bigger than we'd ever need. And at the end of the day, only WE can save the economy.

The US government has been spending beyond it means for 60+ years, and there is NO reason to suspect that it will change that any time soon. If WE don't start saving more and learning to live WITHOUT 100" TVs and new Hummers (and Hondas), then the boom/bust cycle will continue. Well, it will continue about twice more, then it will be over, with no more booms to be had.

The government won't save us: We must save ourselves.
03:10 PM on 12/27/2010
No, big men were the ones who made it so easy to get the loans and the credit to fuel that consumption spending, who contributed to the massive income inequality in his country that helped to promote the easy money and high consumption lifestyle, who themselves took on too much risk and when things went bad credit for bailouts.

Nothing we do will recover the economy, your idea will only prolong and deepen the bust, and prevent any recovery whatsoever.
wsdave
Abusive or Insulting? I won't be responding.
03:34 PM on 12/27/2010
"No, big men were the ones who made it so easy to get the loans and the credit to fuel that consumptio­n spending..."

Uh, sure, but you aren't REQUIRED to take that loan. You did it by choice, as everyone did. My largest TV is a 27" tube unit (about 10 years old), and my car is nearly 20 years old. I bought a 2 bed/1.5 bath house for a family of 3. We don't own a video game system, but have plenty of books and art supplies for the kid. We spend time playing with her and teaching her Spanish and Russian, so the boob tube and video games don't have to.

And even though I'm only in my mid-40s, we could retire tomorrow on our savings if we wanted.

So, yeah: The "big men" make it easy, but you can still say no.
04:32 PM on 12/27/2010
Always blaming someone else for your own actions. Nobody forced anyone to sign those big mortgages and credit debts.
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therealist2000
The day We the People bring down Corporate America
01:57 PM on 12/27/2010
America is a Corporate State. The Business of America is Business.
There lies the problem. Everything in America is ABOUT business.
02:13 PM on 12/27/2010
Trade (i.e., business) is innate to the human race. This will not change. Being smarter about how you go about it does have to change.
05:04 PM on 12/27/2010
Trade is something humans learned to do. It's not innate.

And don't even get me started on the concept of "money".