Imagine, for a moment, Osama bin Laden assessing his position. He spent his youth enjoying the good life in Beirut (then the "Paris of the East"), cars, women, booze, partying. On a pilgrimage to Mecca, he became a radical Muslim, returning home to Saudi Arabia repulsed by the hypocrisy of the royal family. Expelled from Saudi Arabia to the Sudan , he built a following and a financial structure to finance it. Then, expelled to Afghanistan, Osama (aka, the "Arab Sheikh") supported the mujahaddeen fighting the Soviet Union and won.
When Iraq invaded Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia feared it was next, Osama offered his mujahaddeen to protect it. Instead, the Saudi government turned to the US, thereby, in bin Laden's eyes, committing a double sin: rejecting him, and allowing "infidel" feet on holy (Saudi) soil. Incidentally, It has been observed that suicide attacks have occurred only when Western troops were on "muslim" soil, suggesting the inflammatory power of that image in Arab minds.
After years of turmoil in Afghanistan, Osama's protectors, the Taliban, assumed power, and he built al-Qaeda (literally, "the base") into a loosely-organized, worldwide organization, whose major purpose was to expel the West from Muslim lands. To do so, attacks against the west in the Middle East, and in their homes, were considered justified. Al-Qaeda staged attacks in Africa, Bill Clinton retaliated but did not fall for bin Laden's ploy of getting the US bogged down in a land war in the Middle East. Al-Qaeda attempts to attack the US Homeland, such as the planned bombing of the LA Airport at the millenium, were thwarted.
Enter, George Bush. Ill-prepared. Factually-challenged. Intellectually-lazy. Belief-driven. Star Wars-focused. al-Qaeda-ignorant. Clueless National Security Advisor. Surrounded by Iraq-attack proponents.
So, bin Laden uses the Bush vulnerabilities to launch a stunning attack, but overreaches. With world opinion united, the US topples his Taliban sponsors. Cornered at Tora Bora, Bush, counseled by the Iraq-attackers that US casualties would sour subsequent support to invade Iraq, refuses to send the requested 600 Army Rangers to pin him, and close the noose. bin Laden escapes.
Then, miraculously (?), Bush takes 2/3 of the US intelligence effort in Afghanistan, 150,000 troops and the majority of US firepower, and sends it NOT against bin Laden and al-Qaeda, but moves it to Iraq! Away from bin Laden and al-Qaeda!! They remove the secular Saddam, all exactly what Osama wanted.
And, they STAY. Who could be happier than bin Laden. Western boots occupying a Moslem country! Perfect for recruiting, perfect for enraging young people to sacrifice for Allah. Every time the US appears to think of withdrawing, Osama says that Iraq is the central theater for the war on terror, and, bingo(!--can Osama use that gambling-associated word?), Bush and his advisors not only fall for the ploy, but actually QUOTE him to the American people, falling into the trap of staying there, keeping them bogged down so they cannot seriously go after bin Laden.
In the process, Bush also takes the US far to the right, trampling our traditions, compromising our vaunted liberties, and projecting a rigid rightwing messianic militarism, all providing a victory for bin Laden and sharpening the divisions in the world.
Remember Osama's appearance on the eve of the '04 election? What had John Kerry been saying? That Bush had not gone after bin Laden. That Iraq was a diversion. That he was going to fight terrorism intelligently---by bolstering intelligence services, increasing Special Forces, re-establishing relations with our allies, raising respect for the US in the Islamic world, inspecting 100% of the containers that come to the US, enacting serious homeland security legislation to protect transportation/food supply/chemical plants/nuclear facilities while restoring American traditions. All the policies that would hurt bin Laden's mission, all the approaches to hunt bin Laden himself.
George Bush has been bin Laden's favorite President.
Imagine what Osama must be praying for now....if only Dick Cheney would throw his hat in the ring for '08.
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