The Predictalator has run every Week 1 2014 NFL game 50,000 times. Below we present the up-to-date top three at each fantasy position for the week, a sleeper likely to have a breakout game (generally chosen as the best $/FP value on daily fantasy sites), a player to avoid (the worst $/FP value) and some injury situations to monitor heading into the week. Also, check out free projections for every player in every future week in our Rest of Season Fantasy Football Rankings.
Quarterbacks
1. Peyton Manning 30.2 FPs (DEN vs. KC) - Get used to seeing this. Manning is projected for another 30+ point outing as an easy favorite over a Chiefs team that will have six new (read: not better) starters on defense from last year's strong squad. Even against a healthier and better Kansas City team last season, Manning threw for 726 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions in two games. The Chiefs have regressed across the board since then.
2. Andrew Luck 27.6 FPs (IND vs. PHI) - A rare elite passer who actually shines more in fantasy leagues that reward just four points to passing TDs and six points for rushing and receiving TDs, Luck is a legitimate dual threat quarterback who enters into an almost assured shootout on Monday night with the league's fastest tempo offense. Despite being a playoff team, the Eagles gave up a league-high 4,636 passing yards last season.
3. Jake Locker 24.3 FPs (TEN vs. DAL) - Locker was our breakout candidate last week and is a top three player at his position this week. While his Week 1 24 point fantasy performance was certainly no fluke, this top three ranking is equal parts Locker's ability, the strength of his receivers and a matchup with the worst defense in the NFL. I don't know if the Cowboys will make Austin Davis look good next week, but be prepared to stash away Ryan Fitzpatrick for a possible breakout performance by the Texans against the porous Dallas defense in a couple weeks.
Breakout Candidate: Robert Griffin III 24.1 FPs (WAS vs. JAC) - Griffin completed 78.4% of his passes for 267 yards in Week 1 at Houston. He did not have a touchdown, but the Redskins also fumbled twice within the Texans' ten yard-line (one on a 48 yard pass that may have scored otherwise), taking away Washington's scoring opportunities. This week, RGIII heads home and does not have to worry about constantly running from J.J. Watt. Instead, he faces the sixth weakest pass defense in the league.
Must Avoid: Matthew Stafford 16.5 FPS (DET @ CAR) - Whereas quarterbacks facing the Cowboys are almost must-starts on matchup alone, QBs taking on the Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers should usually be avoided. The Panthers allowed just 5.0 yards-per-pass in Week 1, adding two interceptions and three sacks. Last season, Carolina led the league in sacks at 60 and had more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed. Adding to the concern, Detroit's starting RT just went down with injury.
Running Backs
1. Adrian Peterson 17.7 FPs (MIN vs. NE) - The Patriots just gave up 191 yards rushing to a team with one of the more questionable offensive lines in the league. Adrian Peterson would be the most likely player in the NFL to gain 100+ yards against an average team, let alone in this situation. He's a close as it gets to a lock to top 100 yards rushing this week.
2. Arian Foster 16.7 FPs (HOU @ OAK) - Speaking of last week's games, Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson just gouged the Raiders run defense for 212 yards on 34 carries (6.0 yards-per-carry). Meanwhile, Arian Foster had 29 touches in his first game of the season. Houston head coach Bill O'Brien and Foster are both saying that the heavy load will continue as long as he is healthy. Owners should ride Foster as long as that lasts, but also try to pickup Jonathan Grimes for the point in the season when it doesn't.
3. DeMarco Murray 16.6 FPs (DAL @ TEN) - Dallas showed a commitment to the run early on Sunday, but the game got away from the Cowboys almost immediately and Murray was phased out of the attack. He still put up good numbers and should do even better in a game expected to be at least a little closer this week.
Breakout Candidate: Terrance West 13.1 FPs (CLE vs. NO) - West was drafted in more leagues than not as a possible workhorse running back of the future for the Browns if Ben Tate were to go down with an injury or become ineffective. That did not last long. While he was effective, Tate had just six carries before an injury in Week 1. West came in and picked up 100 yards on 16 carries. Many fantasy owners have rushed to pick up his back up Isaiah Crowell who scored two touchdowns, but this is West's job as a feature back. Expect more plays in the passing game as well (no RB was even targeted by Brian Hoyer in Week 1, yet that will change, especially if tight end Jordan Cameron misses the game as well).
Must Avoid: Knowshon Moreno 10.0 FPs (MIA @ BUF) - Moreno's 24 carries may make him look like the feature back in Miami, but Lamar Miller projects to have a better week this week. Part of the disparity in carries stemmed from an early Miller fumble and some combination of a lack of trust and a message sent after. Miller, however, was still in the game on every passing down for the Dolphins, catching four passes (on five targets) to Moreno's no catches (or targets). The coaching staff likes Miller's talent better right now. As long as he can hold onto the football, Miller is likely to best Moreno in fantasy points each week.
Wide Receiver
1. A.J. Green 17.0 FPs (CIN vs. ATL) - Without Marvin Jones or Tyler Eifert on the field, Green and running back Gio Bernard should continue to see the bulk of the passing targets. Green was targeted nine times last week and ended with six catches for 131 yards and a touchdown (Bernard had ten targets). Green may be the most valuable wide receiver on the field in the league and is a top play for fantasy as well.
2. Demaryius Thomas 15.5 FPs (DEN vs. KC) - The output for Thomas in Week 1 was a bit disappointing, but it's important to compare the final stats with the game plan. Thomas was targeted 11 times, the most of any player on the Broncos. And though the Broncos scored three TDs in the passing game, tight end Julius Thomas got them all. It's not always going to be that way. Demaryius Thomas is the most gifted and best weapon for Peyton Manning's elite aerial attack.
3. Pierre Garcon 13.5 FPs (WAS vs. JAC) - Garcon led the league in receptions in 2013 and is primed for another strong season. He picked up 12 targets in Week 1 and should have no problems exploiting a weak Jacksonville defense (see Jeremy Maclin in Week 1). Garcon also stands to benefit from Jordan Reed's injury. He is both the most sure-handed pass catcher and most likely red zone target that the Redskins currently have.
Breakout Candidate: Marqise Lee 8.6 FPs (JAC @ WAS) - Lee currently ranks #33 in our wide receiver rankings for the week, 28 spots ahead of Allen Hurns. Hurns put up the most surprising line of anyone in fantasy in Week 1. However, it's important to note that Lee was the focus of the passing offense when it got into comeback, hurry-up mode late in the game. With the Jaguars likely to be in that same position throughout the season, Lee is a fringe starter each week.
Must Avoid: Roddy White 5.8 FPs (ATL @ CIN) - Watching the game in Week 1, if White is at 100% health right now, then he has not aged well. White did catch five of his seven targets from Matt Ryan for 72 yards and a touchdown, but he did not necessarily look explosive in doing so and it's extremely unlikely that Ryan will complete more than 30 passes for more than 400 yards again this week on the road against a good defense. White is a situational play week-in-and-week-out at this point. This is a week out.
Tight End
1. Julius Thomas 14.9 FPs (DEN vs. KC)
2. Jimmy Graham 14.9 FPs (NO @ CLE)
3. Rob Gronkowski 9.9 FPs (NE @ MIN)
Breakout Candidate: Marcedes Lewis 6.8 FPs (JAC @ WAS)
Must Avoid: Martellus Bennett 6.0 FPs (CHI @ SF)
Kickers
1. Phil Dawson 10.7 FPs (SF vs. CHI)
2. Adam Vinatieri 10.6 FPs (IND vs. PHI)
3. Steven Hauschka 10.6 FPs (SEA @ SD)
Breakout Candidate: Brandon McManus 9.0 FPs (DEN vs. KC)
Must Avoid: Cairo Santos 5.8 FPs (KC @ DEN)
Defense
1. Houston Texans 11.2 FPs (HOU @ OAK)
2. Denver Broncos 10.4 FPs (DEN vs. KC)
3. Carolina Panthers 10.0 FPS (CAR vs. DET)
Breakout Candidate: Washington Redskins 9.4 FPs (WAS vs. JAC)
Must Avoid: Cincinnati Bengals 5.3 FPs (SF @ DAL)
Injuries to Watch
1. Jordan Cameron/Ben Tate - These injuries may not seem that significant to a team that is generally not thought of as having elite fantasy prospects, but something very interesting happens in the numbers when reviewing the possibilities here. If Cameron and Tate both miss this game against the Saints, then both RB Terrance West and WR Andrew Hawkins become top ten players (must starts) at their positions for the week. If both Cameron and Tate play, Hawkins ranks outside the top 25 receivers and Terrance West outside the top 40 running backs, while Cameron would take over his typical spot as a mid-TE1 (around #5 at tight end for the week). With two players that warrant so many touches and targets when healthy, the ramifications of the fantasy result of either or both not playing are notable.
2. Baltimore Running Backs - With Ray Rice cut from the team and Bernard Pierce ineffective since his rookie season, the Ravens running back situation is a mess. For what it's worth, in my three leagues, I currently have Pierce on two, Justin Forsett on one and rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro on the other. This email goes out after Baltimore's Thursday night game, but I don't expect that game to be very indicative of the future at the position for the Ravens. Even if Forsett looks like the guy now, his best role is in passing situations. Pierce or Taliaferro should be the feature back for the long-run.
3. Eddie Lacy/Doug Martin/Toby Gerhart/Andre Ellington - Less than half the league has a clear feature back that stays on the field for almost every situation. Before the season, we talked about the four obvious feature backs - Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson - at the top of our fantasy rankings. Four from the next tier of players are questionable for this week. With Toby Gerhart and Andre Ellington, missing the game would like lead to a running back by committee approach for the Jaguars and Cardinals respectively. In Green Bay and Tampa Bay, James Starks and Bobby Rainey (because Mike James and Charles Sims are also injured) are worth owning as speculative plays in case of injury. However, neither has a great matchup this week as the Packers host the league's best run defense (Jets) and the Rams (the Buccaneers' opponent) also have a top five defense against the run. In each of these situations for Week 2, it's best to have another RB from a different team ready to plug in if necessary.