GOP: Imploding, Meaningless, and Run by Crazies, But not Dead

For the past couple of decades, the consensus in the mainstream media was that the Democratic Party was in dire trouble: politically close to irrelevance and on the wrong foot demographically. Even Bill Clinton's eight years in power were considered a fluke: brought on by a third-party candidate, Ross Perot, and reliant on a centrist triangulating strategy that threw Congressional Democrats under the bus. Red states were growing the fastest, gaining congressional seats and electoral votes which would ensure a permanent GOP majority.

Obviously, it has not quite worked out like that. From Arizona to North Carolina, and Nevada to New Hampshire, the scope of the defeat for the Republican Party in 2008 is stunning. The very states that the GOP was counting on to build on its electoral successes of the past 20-some years turned against them the hardest. Much of it has to do with the ineptitude of the party's leadership, from the economy to the war in Iraq, but it is also about simple math: did Republicans really think that newcomers to Colorado, Virginia and a dozen other fast-growing states were of the same mind set as the backwards-looking social conservatives that had dominated local politics? Or were they more likely to be transplants from blue states with little appetite for fights about abortion, gay rights, and English-only initiatives?

The answer is in the numbers, and they are ugly for the Republican Party. On the presidential level, the fastest-growing state last year, Nevada, flipped to the Democrats, as did two others among the top 10: Colorado and North Carolina. Georgia swung 14 points, coming close to giving Barack Obama an unexpected victory, and Arizona actually voted more Democratic than four years ago, even with John McCain on the ticket. Rather than strengthening the Republican Party, internal migration and immigration have diluted its strength in some critical strongholds.

It is in the Congressional results that the scope of the disaster for Republicans is best illustrated. Democrats now outnumber Republicans in the delegations of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado. Indeed, New Mexico's entire delegation, as well as its governorship, is Democratic. Among other Western states, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and Montana all send more (often far more) Democrats than Republicans to DC. The GOP's Western front now consists of Utah, Alaska, Idaho and Wyoming, some of the smallest states in the country; and even those are showing cracks, with Alaska and Idaho electing Democrats to Congress for the first time in years.

The GOP's ambitions in the Northeast have long been limited, but they nonetheless managed to fall short of even the lowest expectations. New England's six-state, 22-person House caucus is now entirely Democratic thanks to the defeat of last GOP Rep standing Chris Shays in Connecticut. In New York, the Republican delegation now stands at three, less than 10% of the 31 members of Congress from the state.

The Midwest may remain a battleground, although one that was lost resoundingly by Republicans this year: only three of the twelve states in the region now send more Republicans to Congress than Democrats: Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri, the latter now having officially forfeited its bellwether status.

Even in the South, cracks are beginning to show. Virginia and North Carolina, in addition to swinging to Obama, both contributed to the growth in the Democrats' Senate majority and feature Congressional delegations dominated by Democrats. Victories in previously scarlet-red districts in Mississippi and Alabama may also prove problematic for the Republican Party. Overall the GOP has an edge in the region (80 to 62 in the House; 19 to 7 in the Senate) but that is far less of an advantage than the Democratic Party's in the Northeast and the West Coast, for instance.

Those members of Congress from the South represent nearly half the entire GOP representation, and it is not an exaggeration to call the current Republican party a regional one. This in itself is a severe problem for the GOP, especially as the West is actually a faster-growing region, but other demographic data from exit polling should be even scarier for party leaders.

Losing the youth vote is something most Republicans expect, but losing 18-29 year-olds by 66% to 32%, as McCain did this year, is a preposterously high obstacle to future growth. By the same token, the only age group the Republican candidate won, those 65 and older, is not one the party can rely on to stick around forever.

Ethnically and racially, too, the Republican party is in a bind, winning among the only group that is shrinking nationally: non-Hispanic whites. McCain lost by the GOP's usual massive margin among African-Americans, but also by 2 to 1 among Latinos and Asians, the fastest growing groups. The Republican Party lost among urban voters, of course, but also among suburbanites; it scored only among rural voters, a shrinking demographic group.

The loss of the suburbs remains one of the biggest challenges for the GOP, one that has been years in the making, and will not be solved overnight. Here too, a look at Congressional results over the years shows how, one by one, quintessentially suburban districts started falling to Democrats in the 1990s, culminating in this year's victory by Obama in the suburbs. It was not so long ago that places such as Walnut Creek outside of San Francisco, or Long Island, NY, were staunchly Republican bastions. Contra Costa County, where Walnut Creek is located, voted for Obama 68% to 31%, and both Long Island counties favored him too. Both regions are have solely favored Democrats for Congress in recent years. Entire swaths of suburbs around New York, Chicago, Washington, Philadelphia, Detroit and large California cities are represented by Democrats in Congress, who often win by massive margins. On the suburban level, GOP strength is concentrated around a handful of Southern cities such as Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta.

Beyond its regional concentration, the Republican Party's face is from another time. The party's only Hispanic Senator has just announced he is not running for reelection, leaving an entirely white, non-Hispanic GOP Senate. In fact, the party's Congressional caucus overall includes only three Latinos, no African-Americans, and just one Asian-American elected this week in a Louisiana district that is so Democratic he is sure to lose in two years. Republican women are a dwindling group in Congress: down to four in the Senate (including the two Senators from Maine), with one, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, likely to retire soon too. In the House, they are down to 18. There are three openly gay Democrats, but no Republicans. Overall, straight white men represent about half of the Democratic Party in Congress, but close to 90% of Republicans. Indeed, nearly half of the Republican caucus is composed of Southern white men.

The conservative remains of Republicanism are likely to yield an ever more right-wing direction, as evidenced by the current race for the party leadership. One strong candidate calls for change that emphasizes "commitment to be the party of [...] respect for the sanctity of life, traditional marriage, the importance of family." It is far from clear that disgust with the Republican position on social issues is the sole culprit for the alienation a growing majority of voters feel towards the party: after all, majorities of voters in California, Arizona and Florida, defeated same-sex marriage recently. But it is certainly clear that right-wing campaigns that focus on the "sanctity" of marriage, life and guns are doomed for failure, at least nationally.

This surely means that in the long run, self-preservation will take precedence, and some form of reason will prevail, as it did, for instance, within the UK's Conservative Party. Drained of life post Margaret Thatcher, the party became increasingly insular, focused on older, native-born, white, male, rural voters, as the country became younger, more diverse and suburban. The current leader of the Conservatives, David Cameron, has brought his party close to victory after 14 years in the wilderness, and his potential success bears some lessons for Republicans, even accounting for transatlantic differences.

The cultural warfare that exists in the United States does not define British political life in the same way, except perhaps on immigration. Nonetheless Cameron has aptly put behind him topics such as gay rights and abortion that are sure losers in the long-term because of cultural and demographic shifts. Indeed, he has co-opted some of the governing Labour Party's stances on these issues, and even taken what in the US would be considered a more liberal attitude than the Democratic Party's. He has also emphasized policies on the environment, for instance, that are of growing concern to suburban and younger voters. Even if the environment is not the top vote-getting issue in most countries, in the UK, at least, it gives Cameron a modern sheen that his party has desperately lacked. The recruitment of candidates who are not straight old white men has also been given a priority, and time will tell how successful that effort will be, but, again, at the very least (and quite cynically) it gives the party a contemporary look that has been sorely lacking. At the very least, Britain's Conservatives have developed a viable marketing strategy.

No one expects a Southern-dominated GOP to abandon its single-minded focus on social issues but, at some point, Republicans will want to win again. After all, many up-and-coming party members have staked entire careers and livelihoods on winning, and winning as Republicans. There are only so many elective offices in rural Alabama and suburban Houston, and they cannot satisfy even a dwindling group of ambitious Republicans. They will start to show more pragmatism, perhaps get lucky, perhaps the Democrats will overplay their hand on taxes and bailouts, but they will be back: the US electoral system is built that way and big business has too much invested in the party to let it fail (just call it the Citigroup of political parties).

For some perspective, two years ago, one mainstream conservative commentator described the Democratic Party as "imploding," "meaningless" and run by "crazies." Just one national election later, Peggy Noonan looks like the fool that she is. And even though we know that it is the Republican Party that is imploding, meaningless and run by crazies, we also know better than to assume it is dead.

Follow Paul Jenkins on Twitter: www.twitter.com/PaulcJenkins

Comments

[killmenow]

I am always surprised when Peggy Noonan continues to be hired as a pundit on TV. She has so little to say, and never anything of any substance. But the end of your piece is depressing. The very thought that this is all temporary, and that the Republicans may have a resurgence anything on the scale of what the Democrats have achieved is just unthinkable.

[LightningJoe]

Wasn't it a Republican who said, "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time; but you can't fool all the people all of the time."

Maybe the GOP should have read up on their notable quotes, before they tried to fool everyone.

I think people are just tired of being lied to. Even the people who like the substance of such lies, seem to be slowly coming to the conclusion that living in a willful fantasy just might be second fiddle to actually seeing what's really happening around oneself.

This ties in with my own point of view. Given a choice between a depressing reality, and a painted fable, I'll pick the reality any day. If you know the kind of animal you're dealing with, you're less likely to turn your back to it when you shouldn't.

[Yarrr]

This is what reliance on wedge issues gets you!

[jdh45]

I think Palin is a perfect example of the cons mentality.
Pro white,pro big business...oh and of course personal responsibility(what a joke).
They never take any responsibility for anything they do(Michelle Bachmann).
They are the victims of the media, the unions and the democrats. And of course the liberals. Poor GOP.
Quit criticizing and come up with some ideas..Gay marriage? are you kidding me! that is what concerns this party? Typical ,Party First not Country first. That is the GOPs main problem.

[bioluminescence]

Somehow America has been conditioned to think that if Product A isn't good then Product B must be: Example: If you're not a Pepsi person, you're probably a Coke person. For generations their used to be two kinds of car owners in the U. S.: Ford guys and Chevy guys. If it ain't one then it must be the other. Only lately have we begun to realize that Fords and Chevys aren't that great anymore and that Pepsi and Coke are both bad for you. Is it so unforgiving to even think the same way about the choice between Republicans and Democrats? Love one this year and hate the other one. Next time do the opposite. If it ain't one then it must be the other. Unless I missed it, the promise of the election was to empower the middle and working classes after 25 years more or less of trickle down pandering to the business and wealthy elite that actually ended up being trickle up. Delivering that will take fundamental changes in how politics are handled fundamentally in Washington not just a series of crisis management projects.

It is the only meaningful standard to apply to this government.

[Robert2664]

Man is it entertaining watching the gop blame each other for failing to win the white house for at least 4
more years.

[shamaniceconomist]

"Conservative" used to mean cautious and wanting to avoid trouble. It doesn't sound very Republican, does it? The Republican Party will have to replace much its current leadership in order to appeal to at least some voters who are not so interested in stirring up trouble.

[Lablover53]

Thank God I live in a Blue State (Washington).
I think people are getting tired of the "if you are not with us, you are against us" mentality.
The divisive, judgemental stand by the Repubs on issues such as gay marriage, abortion, etc. are not important to people right now as we watch our economy tank.
I could care less who my neighbor is sleeping with. I want government out of my bedroom and out of my personal decisions. I don't want the government injecting religion in my local public schools.
Instead, I want government working to bring back the manufacturing jobs we have lost the last 5-15 years. I want us to strengthen our economy, schools, communities by stopping the outsourcing of our jobs.
Let's get out of Iraq instead of spending billions of dollars there every month.
Good riddance to the Bush/Cheney administration and all their divisive, hateful cronies.
I hope the American people wake up and pay attention.

[StillAmused]

Like any compost heap, the GOP does still generate some heat as it decomposes.

[youknowwhat]

Good!

[JohnJames]

The Democratic party may eventually be grateful for the gay marriage issue, which for the most part they've wished would just go away until now. As banning gay marriage represented the GOP's only real victory in the past election some social conservatives are concluding that the party needs to become even more extreme, more conservative to win back disaffected voters. As a gay Democrat I hope they believe that and try it.

[Nacio]

Actually the government has all but taken the discipline of the "little darlings" away from parents that would actually take the responsiblity of teaching/discipling their children. As a result, we are now reaping the rewards of unruly behaviour in the streets of America and in the school yards, etc.

I see no good coming from people taking delight in the failure of one party or the other, or even who is at fault, at the end ot the day, it will cost us all.....

[kdogg]

Give me a break. Parents are to blame for the lack of discipline, not the government. Just because social services frown on parents beating their kids doesn't mean that children can't be taught discipline and morals from their parents. The problem is that both parents have to work to support a family because people live outside their means and no one is around to watch the kids. People try and make schools discipline these kids because the parents can't or won't but the schools have no real power to enforce the discipline so the kids learn nothing.

[RussellH]

This almost ancient canard won't fly, Nacio! Parents long ago abdicated disciplining their offspring leaving it to schools to do so. The bases for much of this abdication parallels the growth of women (mothers) in the work force, the financial necessity for two-income families to survive in stagnating income growth. The rise in "home-schooling" reflects more the distrust some parents have in contemporary curricula---a more progressive one that asserts the value of teaching evolution and equality for gay students among straight students. If you keep the "little darlings" at home, then they won't witness real world events and experience the benefits of equal treatment for all. Of course, at home they have a bit of bible reading, learning scripture along with Shakespeare which is what schools used to teach when American life was anything but equal. Unruly behavior in streets and schoolyards appears more to be the result of frustrations from the seeming demise of the American dream. Adolescents no longer see the advantage of a high school education because they cannot afford college anyway. I take unabashed delight in the failure of the GOP to continue to promote its atavistic views and stifling social mores more akin to Victorian times than 21st century. Perhaps you also approve of the Bush "Legacy Project" in its blatant attempt at reflecting blame for all its failures. Contact Karl Rove/Karen Hughes to apply.

[Petesdaddy]

The demise of the GOP would not be all that bad for this nation. Division and hatred and destruction have become characteristic of the Republicans and it's time to rid our politics of the stinkin' thinkin' that defines this party.

[Jesster]

Perhaps the GOP (Gone) Out (of it's mind) Party - could be replaced by a rational, thoughtful and authentically "Conservative Party". It might be worth a try. I have serious doubts that the current Republican Party can ever salvage and/or redeem themselves.

[frantaylor]

What's with this "now" business? What is different about "now" than any time in the past? Human nature has not changed one iota in all of recorded history.

[shamaniceconomist]

Perhaps the people taking delight at the failure of the Republican Party are just hoping for an end to the corruption that so many Republican officials have stood for.

[OCPatriot]

Fear...
See: www.ocpatriot-runningcomments.blogspot.com
Neal Gabler's article traces Republican strategy to Senator McCarthy, not Goldwater. Gabler says the real connection is from Sen. Joe McCarthy, to Nixon to Bush and now to Sarah Palin. McCarthyism became a means to play on the anxieties of Americans, convincing them of danger and conspiracy even when they didn't exist, which he used to build power and support. George H.W. Bush used it to get himself elected, terrifying voters with Willie Horton. His son used fear of 9/1, tried and true McCarthy tactics. The thread continued through McCain and then Palin, probably through Rove (who also coached W.), and now even Jeb Bush, and I quote Gabler, "That's why McCain described Obama as some sort of alien and why Palin, taking a page out of the McCarthy playbook, pushing Obama's relationship with onetime radical William Ayers."

What Gabler believes is the Republican Party will continue to move rightward. Fear and blame; rabble-rousing; Rush Limbaughs, Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reillys; and now Palin. Probably because it cannot be believed as the party of small government or fiscal responsibility or moral integrity; all credibility lost in the harsh reality of events; at least not until people forget and these actualities become memories and fade. It is dangerous because it incites people to do violent things.

A shame, some of the original precepts of fiscal responsibility and keeping government out of peoples' lives and moral integrity are well worth preserving.

[killmenow]

Despite years and years of Republican propaganda making those assertions, I have never seen "fiscal responsibility and keeping government out of peoples' lives and moral integrity" as Republican precepts. Those are liberal beliefs co-opted by Republicans to disguise their true agenda of benefiting the rich over the rights of individual Americans.

[musselmanm]

Transplanted from California to North Carolina. I have never in 40 years of voting, voted for a Republican candidate for any office to my knowledge.
I hate to put forth what may be some bad news to many of my fellow Liberal transplants but, I took advantage of the crazy California housing bubble.
I bet many of us transplants are the ones that sold whille the banks were ripping others off!
Disability in California would have left my wife and I broke and homeless.
I have followed my instincts in property matters and was as right as I was about my marriage. Absolutely could not have turned out better!
We love North Carolina! Not a bad place to retire.

[noamjunior]

Gop better hope Obama succeeds becasue when people are secure in their ecconomic well-being (like in 2000) they are more easily destracted by the sideshow of non-issues Gopers use to win elections

[tigerakabj]

There is a new generation now that doesn't play that gay marriage/abortion crap. In 2016, these now 10 year-olds will be 18 and would have grown up under an Obama presidency.

One of the resons the GOP lost was that Obama called them out on their behavior before they even did it. Please believe in 2016, whoever the candidate is, they will know the GOP's gameplan.

[1differentdrummer]

The Goofus Old Party is reaping what it has sowed. Embrace war. Worship Rush. Stick with the Bible in school, commandments in courts, outlaw stem cell research, allow guns in all public venues, teach only the three Rs plus creationism as science in schools, demand anti-abortion litmus tests for candidates, etc., etc., and see what you get. Wow, it's what you've gotten this cycle. Imagine that.