The Republican Party's Death Wish

The political death-watch for RNC Chairman Michael Steele is wildly entertaining: who knew the party that gave us George W. Bush and Sarah Palin was holding back its best buffoon yet? The bigger question, though, is not so much whether Steele will survive, but whether it his party that is doomed.

Defeated, lacking in leadership, deeply divided despite its shrinking size, out of touch with the country, demographically unrepresentative: the GOP has hit the kind of perfect storm that it has not faced in a long time, and it is not an exaggeration to state that the party's survival is at stake. Yes, Republicans have been in deep crises before, most recently in the aftermath of Watergate, and have lived to see another day. Yes, the party's corporate benefactors are not likely to let it go down without a fight. And yes, the US electoral system is not conducive to change: since the demise of the Whig Party 150 years ago, Democrats and Republicans have mostly had the field to themselves.

But the current crisis feels different. The Republican Party's defeat in November was so complete that you have to go back to, well, the post-Watergate 1970s for a comparable imbalance in Congress in favor of the Democratic Party. And it could get worse in 2010: four GOP-held Senate seats are open, with probably more to come. Thanks to infighting, other seats are also endangered: in Kentucky where the party is desperate to get rid of its mad Senator Jim Bunning, who will have none of it; and in Pennsylvania, where the 79 year-old moderate incumbent Arlen Specter is unlikely to make it past the GOP primary, so despised is he in his party. On the presidential front, the numbers are equally as grim: in a two-person race, one has to go back to 1964 for a Republican performance as dismal as John McCain's.

McCain's campaign and defeat, combined with Bush's record unpopularity, have left the party absolutely leaderless. There are at least two-dozen men and women who could claim to be the most powerful person in the Republican Party: from Steele to Palin to Rush Limbaugh, through a list of members of Congress, Governors and failed Presidential candidates, it is a complete free-for-all. Making matters worse, these would-be leaders are mostly a deeply unappealing bunch born to do anything but lead. On what is clearly the most pressing issue of the time, the economy, top Republicans have neither followed, nor lead: not only did they get us into this spot, but they have absolutely no idea how to get us out of it. If there were one, just one, strong voice in the party to argue coherently against the stimulus package and government spending generally, perhaps the country would listen. But instead, there is a cacophony of absurd doomsday forecasts, trickle-down retreads, senile railings against earmarks, rantings about the stimulus' lack of religiosity, or simply silence. We have yet to hear a single realistic scenario from a top Republican that would outline how and when the country could move forward from its current meltdown.

Of course, the Republican Party could go on losing elections ad eternam and still survive, as it did for the twenty years following the Great Depression (with one electoral hiccup of a win in 1946). But the rumblings of discontent from those whose individual political careers are at stake are already getting louder. The split is most evident among Governors: the sniping between moderate, or at least pragmatic Republican chief executives, and their right-wing orthodox counterparts is striking. In one corner, are most prominently Arnold Schwarzenegger of California and Charlie Crist of Florida, who are embracing the stimulus funds coming their way. In the other corner are nutjobs Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, who have threatened to turn down stimulus money, or perhaps some of it, especially that which would go to increasing unemployment checks, because, well, we don't really know. But that's what Ronald Reagan would have done. They're pretty sure. Perhaps. Anyway, it's government money, so it's bad money and they don't want it. Look for the pragmatic wing of the party to chuckle ever louder at their party's economic ayatollahs and, eventually, to ignore them, as Utah Governor Jon Huntsman has decided to do: "I don't even know the congressional leadership. [...] I have not met them. I don't listen or read whatever it is they say because it is inconsequential -- completely."

It is telling that Congressional Republicans' biggest self-perceived achievement in months (or is it years?) was the unanimous rejection of the stimulus package by their House caucus. They partied like it was 1984 in celebration of this symbolic success, ignoring the fact that a growing majority of voters favor increased government spending. This is nothing unusual, as, on nearly every issue, Americans prefer the Democrats' positions, which only seems to harden the besieged Republicans. Rather than make them look strong and consistent on their core values and principles, Republicans increasingly come off as stubborn lunatics sticking to failed policies and dismissive of the country's will. Perhaps one day Americans will again favor economic policies that destroy the middle class, further impoverish the poor, create billionaires by the boatload and threaten the country's stability, but even for a people with a strong capacity to forgive and forget, this does not seem likely to happen soon. That the Republican Party is out of touch with a vast majority of the country should not be a surprise: even as heterosexual Christian white men are shrinking in numbers (probably fewer than a quarter of Americans could be so described), they make up well over 90% of the party's members of Congress. There is nothing inherently wrong with heterosexual Christian white men, but a party this homogeneous does not have a shot at understanding what the country needs. It also explains why Republicans are left dredging for diversity among the Palins, Jindals and Steeles of the world. More ominously, you cannot expect much of a future when you have lost an entire generation of young people, and several generations of immigrants, for the benefit of short-term electoral gains that never materialized. Nor can you beat up on every significant growing constituency and expect it to come around at election time.

For now, Republicans seem to be settling their hopes on the usual suspects: abortion and gay people. When Steele is deposed of his chairmanship, it will be because of his intemperately moderate comments on both issues, which have predictably energized the party's social conservatives. Indeed, Barack Obama may well add fuel to the fire if he extends benefits to same-sex partners of federal workers. This, says sex-obsessed right-winger Gary Bauer, will "provoke a furious grass-roots reaction [and] reinvigorate the conservative coalition." So that is what will unify the Republican Party: keeping gay people uninsured. A sure winner. The GOP has long been fissured along social issues, with moderates generally losing the internal battles on abortion and gay rights, but winning the bigger war, as America in general has progressed their way. Now economic policy is proving equally as divisive, except that most Americans actually care deeply about the issue (as opposed to, say, late-term abortions.) This is why Republicans' position on the stimulus package is so unfathomable: what base exactly are they catering to? Surely not to their shrinking bastions in Appalachia and the Deep South, among the poorest states in the country, and precisely those most dependent on federal money. As irrational as we may think they were for voting for McCain, does the Republican Party really think that struggling white voters in, say, Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana will take kindly to the GOP's bizarre last stand on the economy?

The current Republican in-fighting is often described as a battle for the soul of the party. The GOP has no soul, so that description is inaccurate. However, many of its members, like all politicians, have an instinct for self-preservation. The question now is where these survival impulses take individual Republicans. There is talk of some moderates leaving the party, either as independents (Schwarzenegger) or Democrats (Specter). Those who remain will either reengineer the party to look, act and think more like mainstream America; or they will delve deeper into its most extremist recesses. If it is the former, it is hard to imagine the party's right-wingers staying onboard and, with nowhere to go but out, it is likely they would at least attempt the previously unthinkable: forming their own conservative party. If the extremists win and take the party ever further right, what will happen to the middle-of-the-road wing of the Republican party, let alone its moderate and liberal members? Their political careers, already threatened, are likely to become yet more tenuous, at least as Republicans. With the Democratic Party occupying the terrain from the center of the spectrum to the far-left, there is little room for an alternative moderate, centrist party. That would give the more pragmatic members of the GOP little choice: to lose as Republicans, or win as Democrats or independents. In either scenario, the Republican Party in its current incarnation would wither away, or perhaps even disappear.

That the GOP survived the 1970s is no indication that it can survive its current crisis: Watergate was very much about one man, Richard Nixon, and while the Republican brand was badly damaged, its policies were not: Vietnam was not a Republican war, and the dreadful state of the economy was not particularly perceived to be the responsibility of the GOP, or even of Nixon. In fact, Nixon's approval ratings remained quite high until the Watergate scandal fully unfolded. His Republican successor, Gerald Ford, started his own term with sky-high popular approval. The party is in a very different situation now: the Iraq folly and the disastrous economy are widely believed to be the result of Republican policies, which the party endorses to this day. The GOP's bulwark of corporate benefactors is also crumbling: they have far more pressing matters than to prop up a party that has not done much for them lately. Indeed, the US Chamber of Commerce, not exactly a Marxist stronghold, enthusiastically endorsed the stimulus package. The Republicans' best friend remains an electoral system that entrenches the two-party system. That said, there is precedent for more than two parties in countries with similar first-past-the-post elections: the UK, for instance, has three main parties, all of which have parliamentary representation. And, also in the UK, the emergence of the Labour Party in the 20th century spelled the doom of the Liberal Party, until the latter reincarnated and merged with a fourth party in the 1980s.

The Republican Party's predicament bears little resemblance to the one facing Democrats in Bush's first term, when Karl Rove famously predicted a long-lasting Republican majority. This asinine forecast was based on the flimsiest of evidence: four years during which Republicans were in charge of both the White House and Congress, a Bush defeat in the popular vote followed by a narrow win, and a few equally narrow Congressional victories, mostly eked out through a probably illegal redrawing of districts in Texas. To put things in perspective, the only time Republicans have matched the kind of majority Democrats now enjoy was in 1921-23, after which a string of increasingly slim GOP victories eventually yielded the Great Depression (funny how that works). Even so, no one is predicting a permanent Democratic majority: that does not happen in a democracy. What we are predicting is that a party as failed, rudderless, and out-of-touch as the present-day GOP is destined for extinction unless it changes drastically and quickly. And that by staking its future on the likes of Palin, Jindal, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, all of whom have failed every significant test of political leadership, the Republican Party is simply accelerating its increasingly inevitable demise.

Comments

[NoMoreInsanity]

The GOP train can't go fast enough over the cliff....W­hat a relief to see these death throes after having gone through eight years of these abusive, ever so pious, extremist bozo's.
I wake up in the morning to find more done in one night by an admisitration then what the previous one had accomplished in years. Of course you'll have the GOP scream and rant. You'll hear things like "socialism," and hear rotund, sweaty mike jockeys who want to send us all back to the 50's with Ozzie & Harriet scream that it's the end of America as we know it. That's okay, because brutes like that will shout and scream to no end when they start seeing their own end in sight. They want to instill some sort of fear in me that if I don't listen to their twisted logic, all is going to be lost and we're going to hell in hand-basket. In the words of the big "W"..."Bri­ng it on." Nothing compares to the kind of sick fear that they tried to push on me the last eight years. How can any sensible or sentient being EVER want to go back to that horrible crap?
It's nice to see these idiots on parade. The more they speak; the more they just bury themselves. Let them shout from the rooftops! We are finally seeing these so called "neo-cons" for what they really are/were: Greedy bastards who got away with way too much.

[CharlesLewis]

The Democrates blow themselves up, always and the Republicans blow everybody else up, always. The Democrates stand around wringing their hand, pissing and moaning and the Republicans just go for the money and power. Looks like now the Republicans have learned by default something from the Dems. Jesus, thank God for whiskey.
polyblog123.blogspot.com/

[rbenjamin]

Great post by Paul Jenkins. Last year, I felt so lonely predicting the demise of a national Republican Party. No longer. The notion is becoming fashionable and is well on it's way to conventional wisdom. To give proper credit, people like Palin, Steele and Jindal have been a big help. Special thanks to Rush.

So, here we are. Stampy, the once beloved GOP Elephant is old, ill-tempered and incontinent. He scares the kids and neighbors are beginning to talk about the noise and smell. Time to lead him out to a quiet spot in our National Back Yard and put him out of his misery.

[MissKaren]

It would be one thing if they were bumped off but these guys seem to be offing themselves and that's ugly. There is NO leadership. It is a vacuum. The GOP doesn't listen to its bright people but wallows in the gutter with rightwingnut populists. Sad.

[Gregor53]

Very good article with a well thought out basis that is supported by examples. I am glad that the UNITED States is finally becoming a little united again. We all need to support each other in these terrible times and we do not need a bunch of "Just Say No" politicians that are trying to keep the memories of the "old day" a reality. Diversity is the key to success, NOT polarization.

[ObjectiveRealist]

All true. It is a very good post by Jenkins. What impressed me most is that he was able to be so neutral about it, or if you prefer, objective. ;) It's easy to find writing that either cheers or laments the demise of the GOP. This post stands out.

Personally, I do not care whether the GOP crumbles, reinvents itself or slowly retreats into the Deep South, where it could probably sustain 10% - 25% in Congress, be utterly powerless, but nevertheless get elected on the same silly hate- and fear-mongering that got Dick Cheney his approval ratings. What matters to me is that the Cheney-Bush, Inc. agenda has been exposed for what it is, understood by enough voters to repeal it bit by putrid bit, and that their "ideas" are not taken seriously. If some politicians choose to stand by those losers, and if those politicians continue to be what the GOP chooses to sponsor for election, they will get what they deserve: loss and shame.

[Jacksonian]

As the G.O.P. prepares for its relegation to the margins of history, a fate it richly deserves, I have only one thing to say: May the Republican party Rest in Peace.

[dst1]

And at last maybe we will get some of that peace too.

[Lechuguilla]

An excellent article ...

"The Republicans' best friend remains an electoral system that entrenches the two-party system."

Bingo!

If there were a viable left-of-center party, i.e. the Green Party, then the current Democratic Party could assume the role of the centrist or right-of-center philosophy. In that case, the Republicans would be devalued to third Party status. But that's a big "if".

I don't quite see how we can overcome the current reality of an "electoral system" that is rigged to ensure the survival of an inept, soulless political Party ...

[ObjectiveRealist]

Instead of "campaign finance reform" that fine-tunes the rules for donations and lobbying, we need to overturn the interpretation of Free Speech rights which falsely asserts that corporations have any valid role in politics at all. City by city, county by county and state by state, we need to double down on President Obama's campaign finance and lobbyist policies. He pointed the right direction but we have to go much further and we have to do it in local referenda. If we do it nation-wide first, I think such a centralized effort would be too easy for centralized corporate interests to block, and they'll stoop to any methods, as the Norm Coleman fiasco shows, to preserve corporatist represenation.

What I have in mind is "individual donations and individual lobbying only," meaning that even non-profit groups would be able only to contact their members, and try to organize their members' lobbying efforts, but *all* contact with Congress would have to be by individuals on behalf of our own interests. No hired lobbyists, for any cause, ever.

I think the advantage of having corporations out of politics forever would far exceed the inconvenience to groups I support, including labor unions, PIRGs and the Sierra Club. Those would have much less work to do, don't you agree?

[soulfulnotes]

True that.

[ALC]

The permanent republican majority that Rove, DeLay and others espoused is proof of their stupidity and ignorance of the workings of a democracy along with their pathetic math skills. 2000- Bush makes it into the white house despite LOSING the popular vote and with a lot of help from the U. S. Supreme Court. 2004-He wins re-election by the slimmest margin ever achieved by a sitting president. In the meantime Bush and company are arrogantly declaring that they have political capital and are ready to spend it as if they rode in on some kind of mandate. Then they proceeded to get every agenda of theirs shoved back up their kazoos and couldn't figure out why. These "geniuses" missed the simplest mathematical truth of both elections. ONE-HALF OF AMERICA DIDN'T WANT THEM TO BEGIN WITH!! Stupid People.

[CanadianBeef]

Great column except for the statement that the Democratic Party occupies the political spectrum from "the center to the far-left." There are a few, a very few, genuine progressives among the hundreds of Democrats in Congress. Actual progressives would introduce single-payer, universal health coverage, pull all troops out of the Middle East, and nationalize the banks. The party is doing none of these things in spite of historic levels of popularity, an economic meltdown, and a GOP in disarray.
Several European countries have actual communists in national government. The U.S. doesn't even have a social-democratic party at the federal level. Even Canada (my home) has that. You have a long way to go, America!

[Dangersea27]

Agreed -- we have a loooooooooooong way to go! And as long as people poop their pants everytime some one says "Boogaboo! Socialist!!!" it will be a while.
Not sure if we can get there from here.

[Opygollopy]

Socialism is not a dirty word. If you have a police force, firemen, welfare system, unemployment system - it is socialism. It benefits the people for the good of the country. Many Americans mistake it for Communism which is wrong. You still have your own choices that no one can make but you. You just have better choices. IF you give it a chance, it could also give you better health care resources that would NEVER put you into a situation where you lose everything. It is a health system for all, not just for people who can afford it.

In Canada, you have to pay 6% for your health coverage a year. Anyone making 20K pays 300 dollars a year and so on. No one goes bankrupt here due to health issues and you can never, ever be denied for existing health probs. If you need a transplant, it goes to the neediest person first. No favoritism and no added cost. Just your yearly health care insurance at 6%. We have excellent medical facilities and short waiting periods. Only elective surgery has longer waiting periods.

I had surgery in December - 6 Doctors appts, 2 Cat Scans, 1 MRI, a hospital stary, follow up and meds and it cost me around 6 dollars and that included all blood tests etc. Cant go wrong with that. If that is Socialism, I'll take it every time.

[dolphy]

A world without the far right rethugs. That will be even a better world than a world without Saddam.

[nettyspagetti]

I don't think that will happen in our lifetime, but we can hope for the future . . .

[ChuckiePoo]

The GOP is hell-bent on committing suicide. Every time Michael Steele makes a sensible comment -- such as criticizing Rush Limbaugh, or saying that abortion should be a matter of "individual choice", or saying something nice about gays -- he gets his head handed to him. The one thing Steele has been extremely successful at is in drawing the GOP snakes out from under their rocks and having them spit their hell-fire and brimstone at him. Steele has been a lightning rod for Republican flame-throwers. He keeps goading the GOP base into trumpeting their true colors to the rest of America. At this rate -- "Ah, these Republicans, I fear they're not long for this world".

Please visit my Blog:
"Conservatives Are America's Real Terrorists"
http://conservativesarecommunistss.blogspot.com/

[holyhandgrenaid]

Your proposal for the possible fate of the GOP falls short on what will actually happen I think.

I agree that the ultra-right wing will seize control of the party permanently, and the moderates will be driven out. However, the moderates will not just take losses, and there most certainly still is ideological space for them. They will form a third party, and in time they will lure the Mark Pryors and Blanche Lincolns of the world over to their party. The Democratic Party will lose seats, and have 2 oppositions: one that is occasionally cooperative, and one that is never (guess which is which).

Truth be told, a Moderate party of Specters, Snowes, Nelsons, and Landrieus would probably quickly become the majority, I think.

[dst1]

This is something that I could live with. My Arkansas senators Pryor & Lincoln are great people. That was a long time ago but I still keep track of them.

[blaqntelligence]

Thoughtful and thought-provoking, from both author and comments. Thank you all.

[unite4change]

The Southern strategy = Bigots who want to go back to their past time paradise: Affirmative Action, only whites need to apply, and whites not wanting to compete against nonwhites. Hate everything and everybody that's different. Their slogan and the GOP slogan should be "We Love to Hate" or "We Love to Hate in the Name of God".

[Mecheng]

We have but you are not listening. but I am a Republican and here is something to chew on:

1. Cut the capital gains tax, not increase it.

2. Cut the corporate net income tax -it is the second highest in the world.

3. Condition any stimulus $$ going to states on the passage by the state legislature of a balanced budget amendment that cannot be repealed for at least 10 years.

[darthmaul]

Let me take the liberty to respond to your prescription to our economic malaise.

1. Cut the capital gains tax, not increase it.
Right now, there is no such thing as Capital Gains, so reducing a tax rate on 0 gains is meaningless.

2. Cut the corporate net income tax -it is the second highest in the world.
This is a bit of a canard because while the tax rate is high, the U.S also has the greatest number of corporate tax loopholes of any OECD member

3. Condition any stimulus $$ going to states on the passage by the state legislature of a balanced budget amendment that cannot be repealed for at least 10 years.

This task would be akin to "herding cats." Trying to get all 50 states to agree to this would be impossible.
And the Republicans wouldn't want it because it infringes on "states rights."

[TremoluxMan]

1. Very few but the richest need to worry about capital gains. This is a non-issue.
2. You need to look at the effective corporate tax rate, not the nominal rate. After you factor in all allowances, credits, etc., the U. S. corporate rate is very competitive.
3. Sounds fine on paper, but is unrealistic and impractical in practice.

The middle class is what fuels the economy. The are the most numerous and those who drive the demand for goods and services. When is the last time someone making over $500,000 went to Lowes for a deck project or Best Buy to buy a TV or washer, dryer or refrigerator? They don't buy Fords, Chevies or Chryslers. No one I ever knew or know ever had to worry about capital gains.

[roger37]

Capital gains is indeed a non-issue, especially since the estate tax has been repealed. The repeal of the estate tax, better known by Grover Norquist's label "death tax," is really just a way for wealthy families to avoid capital gains taxation by means of succession, thereby making the world safe for rich folks.

[mrfreeze]

Mecheng - Why would changing the tax laws for the rich and corporations help this country? Please connect the dots. Really, I'm sincerely curious. Can anyone show me where corporate taxes have been decreased and jobs were created, or wages for workers rise? Please explain what the direct benefits of lowering corporate taxes are. It seems to me that corporations lower costs and increase profits mainly by outsourcing their workforces to cheaper places. As for capital gains tax cuts for the wealthy: the 300,000 wealthiest Americans have a net worth higher than the bottom 150,000,000. To suggest that the wealthy need more tax breaks is ridiculous. Instead of coddling the rich, we should be ensuring that our schools are producing people who can actually do jobs that command a living wage. We should be investing in our infrastructure and re-engineering health care.

[Opygollopy]

1. Capital gains tax - doesnt affect anyone who isnt working.

2. Corporate net income tax - It has been proven that there are so many loopholes that they pay less than 2% per year.

3. Balanced budget amendment for each indivual state will vary due to the fact of existing debts each state had before the Stimulus. Some states will find it difficult to balance their budgets in l0 years as it exists right now before they even get the Stimulus.

[PocketWatch]

1. Capital gains = income. Income should be taxed.
2. Corporate income tax... as I've mentioned ad nausium, I'm a Business Consultant for small and medium sized businesses. When my clients start doing what I say, about a year later I always get a phone call that goes "OMG, I have to pay TAXES!" I ask why, and they say they've actually started to show profits. My response is "Would you rather have the other problem?" The answer is, of course, no... LOL Now, the rest of the conversation is how to reduce booked profits to avoid taxes. I always tell them there is one rule: any money spent to increase expenses and reduce profits on the books must be spent to either increase Net Worth, productivity, or quality. These are investments in the company that will continue to pay off down the road making the company snowball into a better and better company. No company junkets just to get rid of $$ on the bottom line.
3. Balanced budgets. Wisconsin has a good system. Constitutionally, the process is in 2 parts. First, pass a tax bill. This renders a total dollar amount of income for the state. Once that's settled and passed, THEN they do the spending bill, using the income just determined. Also, the state constitution forbids imabalances. Sensible and effective.

[unite4change]

Very interesting videos, every American should see:


How we got Managed Healthcare

Click here: YouTube - Nixon Launches the HMO's - What a SICKO


Financial Crisis

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meltdown/view/


The Corporation:

Part 1: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3969792790081230711

Part 2: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7365345393244917682