Eight Reasons the Democrats lost Virginia & New Jersey--and How to Recover

Losing the Virginia and New Jersey governorships hurt. Local factors played a part, but these are major states. So it matters why the Democrats lost them. Here are eight reasons, with lessons on how to reclaim the momentum of just a year ago:

Bad candidates.
The consensus choice, but worth stating before moving on to reasons less obvious. Creigh Deeds ran an awful campaign, even saying he'd reject a healthcare public option. As a follow-up poll confirmed, he lost major support as a result. Jon Corzine's ratings were disastrous from the beginning and his Wall Street background combined with the massive indictments of so many New Jersey Democrats to offer the worst possible symbolism. You have to give people something to fight for, and if our candidates are this unpopular, we'd better get better ones.

Blue Dogs.
The Blue Dogs watered down the stimulus package so much that it couldn't stem the continuing loss of jobs. It also included far too little aid to beleaguered state and city governors. So unemployment has continued to climb, creating an understandably disgruntled electorate. No one likes a governor or mayor whose main job is to cut needed services and throw more people out of work, so this puts Democratic incumbents in a terrible bind. If Democrats want to protect their incumbents in 2010, they need to tackle continued job losses and the continued bleeding of local budgets.

Baucus, Nelson, and their cohorts. (More Blue Dogs)
Imagine if Democrats had united to pass a health care bill like the original House version, including popular elements like a strong public option and being funded through taxes on the wealthy. Imagine if they'd done it promptly after some reasonable discussion, instead of dragging it out for months and second-guessing every step. Obama and the Democrats would have something to show voters by now, a record as a party that can get things done even on critical and difficult issues. Instead, after watching endless internal bickering, the public fears the Democrats really will never get their act together, and that what they do pass will be so beholden to wealthy corporate interests that it won't address our real problems. The sooner the Senate and House pass a reasonably progressive healthcare bill, especially one that starts benefiting people immediately, the more the Democrats can reclaim their reputation.

Obama.
Obama hardly has sole responsibility for the defeats, especially since most voters in New Jersey, and even Virginia still approve of his presidency. And he's done some important things, like beginning to repair our relationship to the rest of the world, supporting alternative energy and respecting scientists' warnings on climate change, and signing strongly progressive student financial aid legislation. But maybe if he'd talked more honestly about the level of disaster we've inherited, and what it will really take to address it, Americans wouldn't be backlashing so severely on the economy. Maybe if he had put people other than like Geithner and Summers in charge, voters wouldn't feel that if you're a banker or speculator who helped crash the global economy, you and your institution get a bailout or golden parachute, but if you've been thrown out of work or your small business fails, you're on your own. Maybe if he'd leaned on the Blue Dogs more (channeling his inner Lyndon Johnson), they'd have come around by now. Obama needs to start governing more as he campaigned--by consciously building a movement and creating momentum to carry candidates and legislation he supports over the top. And he needs to take stronger moral leadership on the key issues we face.

The plummeting youth vote, and demobilization in general.
In exit polls, Virginia voters under 30 dropped from 21% of the 2008 electorate to 10% this year, and from 17% to 9% in New Jersey. Minority voting saw a similar decline. In both states, over half the Obama voters of a year ago simply stayed home, more than a million people in both Virginia and New Jersey. With this collapse of the Democratic base, even relatively modest Republican turnout could carry the day, and did.

In Seattle, where I live, voters elected a strong slate of progressive local officials, both in the city and our more conservative county, including candidates who defeated entrenched incumbents. These candidates actively targeted young voters, whose participation also helped defeat a regressive statewide tax initiative (predecessors of which had passed) and pass a statewide initiative affirming civil unions. The difference is mobilization and vision. Our local candidates invested resources on reaching young voters and giving them something to turn out for. The Obama campaign reached out to young voters intensively, as did major nonpartisan efforts like those of the PIRGs and RockTheVote. This time, the Democratic campaigns did minimal outreach, and too many young voters who would have supported Democratic candidates never made it to the polls.

The Democrats and the media who threw ACORN under the bus.
ACORN definitely made some poor staffing choices. But their alleged "voter fraud" is a Republican myth, since when a handful of paid canvassers added fake registration names, the only institution harmed or defrauded was ACORN itself, who'd spent money to register nonexistent people, none of whom ever even tried to cast a vote. Fox and its cohorts never mentioned that ACORN was legally required to turn in the dubious names, which they flagged for election officials to reject. And yes, some low-level staffers deserved being fired or worse for not instantly ejecting the young conservatives who played pimp and "ho," but the media stories never mentioned those who did and even called the police. The real reason for the attacks was the organization's long-time role in organizing low-income communities, and their registering 1.3 million legitimate voters in the 2007-2008 election cycle alone. By failing to stand up for ACORN's legitimate achievements, cowering Democrats helped the political right demobilize a major force to get low-income communities to participate politically. Other efforts will find hard this force hard to replicate.

Organizing for America.
Organizing for America has done some important things, like generating 300,000 phone calls on healthcare reform. But mostly, it's just been sending out videos of Obama's talks and then asking for money. They've done little or nothing to foster the actual campaign's intensely creative invent-your-own-approach style, and little to connect people so they can empower each other to act. Despite a 13-million-name email list, the organization's impact has been underwhelming so far. They need to start taking more risks and help rebuild a strong grassroots movement among those who did so much to elect Obama. That would go a long way toward shifting America's political culture.

Our common inaction.
This is perhaps the most important area that needs to change, because it affects everything else. A few days before the election, I had dinner with my friend Magdeleno Rose-Avila, who used to work for Cesar Chavez and first got Sister Helen Prejean involved in death penalty issues. A year ago, Magdeleno said, everyone he knew was going to the mat to get Obama elected: giving money, time, everything we could. We stretched beyond what we could, and then we stretched some more. Now, most people he knows have become political spectators. We send out emails. Maybe we call our Senators. But compared to the year before, our actions are minimal, and ineffectual. We haven't been reaching out, canvassing, bombarding the media, calling swing states, marching in the streets, attending town meetings, and coming together to get our voices heard. Or at least not enough of us have. If we want significant change, we must lead the way we did before, but have since stopped. If we want progress, we're going to have to work for it.

The reasons for the Virginia and New Jersey defeats are correctable. We can get better candidates, and make clear to those running that if they stand for nothing, their constituents will fall for anything. Obama and the House and Senate leadership must tell Blue Dogs and Senators like Baucus: The more they block progress on popular key initiatives, the more swing Democrats, including many of the most conservative, will pay the electoral consequences. Conversely, if they can finally pass a decent progressive healthcare bill and help shore up state governments, they'll ultimately benefit at the polls. For his part, Obama needs to start building a movement again. That means leading by example, playing hardball with obstructionist Democrats, and encouraging those grassroots citizens who act on the issues he cares about--even if they push him farther than he'd like. Finally the rest of us must recognize that the fight to get our country to deal with its most critical issues is a huge one, and that change can't come from Obama alone--something that should be amply clear by now. We have a chance that will be fulfilled only if we start reaching out once again to our fellow citizens, as we did when we helped carry Obama over the top a year ago.

Paul Rogat Loeb is the author of The Impossible Will Take a Little While: A Citizen's Guide to Hope in a Time of Fear, named the #3 political book of 2004 by the History Channel and the American Book Association. His previous books include Soul of a Citizen: Living with Conviction in a Cynical Time, whose wholly updated second edition will be released in March 2010. See www.paulloeb.org To receive his articles directly email [e-mail] with the subject line: subscribe paulloeb-articles

 

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Comments

[yurbud]

The youth vote is a critical issue.

Idealistic kids are not going to get excited by incremental, glacial change and unnecessary compromise with a dying party--compromises that hurt real people for the sake of symbolism.

Worse, it seems incredible to me that Obama would make it known that he didn't want David Patterson to run again in New York, but he personally campaigned for Corzine. As soon as the Wall Street bailouts in general and the misdeeds of Goldman Sachs in particular hit the news, Obama should have treated Corzine as if he were radioactive.

Instead, he bows and scrapes before Goldman Sachs like the guy with a fruit cart when the mafia comes around to collect their protection money.

[JPE33180]

When do we suppose the Christie scandals will break? I figure 8-10 months after swearing in.

[abluevoice]

It's pretty amazing that the exit polls in these two states showed over 85% of voters, voted because they were upset about the economy. How any Democrat candidate could lose to a Republican from the party of just say no to every solution created to save the economy and the party that caused the economic collapse is mind boggling.

It would seem all the Democratic candidate in both of these states had to do was at every speech say my opponent belongs to the party that caused the economic collapse and supports the party that has no solutions and wants the economy to continue to fail. But I guess they didn't think about this, because the Dems are too busy gloating and looking forward not backwards.

[Paul Loeb - Huffpost Blogger]

To be clear, I think Obama's definitely done some good things in office. Huge difference from Bush or what we'd have had with McCain. But the Blue Dogs and their Senate equivalents have blocked progress on both the economy and health care, and the Democrats in general have paid the costs. To change this will take continued involvement from all of us who worked for change.

[Guscat]

I believe there was only one reason these two races were lost. Both candidates ran terrible campaigns and were not liked by the electorate. It had nothing to do with Obama nor what is going on in Washington.

[MysticalPippin]

Mr. Loeb has shown us some concise & excellent reasoning. I wish the white house would take his sense and use it to make a strong and clear showing of WHO'S IN CHARGE here. C'mon Dems we, the little people are waiting for you to follow thru on your promises to rid the unbelievable unfairness the right wants to govern us by. They claim they want less government - and yet the laws they want to reverse or put into place will not allow women freedom of choice, the poor without means of any knd of health, housing or job support - thus keeping them poor and under their thumb of power. Less government my ass.

I am wondering why though, no one seems to be talking about the fact that another seat in the house was taken by the Dems. In an area that historically was Republican. That to me is much more important than electing two republican governors who dont' have an official say or vote in congress.

[BBremner]

Right On Brother!!

Like you, I live in Washington, not the center left ultra-liberal Puget Sound area but the far Upper Right area with nary a Democrat to be found in the Legislature. Where Seattle and the Puget Sound area carried the state for civil unions and taxes we all voted them down, the civil unions by a 60-40 margin. However in Ferry County - my home, we had an issue which pretty much started out as a liberal vs. conservative disagreement. The issue was a motorized vs. a non-motorized trail and it was pretty much the greens vs. the motor heads. The liberal-green group got out and really pushed. The conservative-motor heads got creamed. We won by the 60-40 margin.

It can certainly be done, Democrats can win in "conservative" areas. But we can't win by sitting on our hands and whining.

[LeRoyHolt]

Until democrats learn to sell their brand... Democrats will not gain the support needed to win elections.
Democrats in the 60's were known as the peoples advocates...... that message has been lost to chants of "no new taxes". Democrats have to learn to turn"no new taxes" into a position of strength for their party...
Frankly, a message of no new taxes for the middle class.... but equitable taxation for everyone... the value message is available the Democratic Party ... it just needs someone with stones to sell the message.

[Chbronze]

How do you explain the suburban republican victories around NYC or the statewide election republican victories in Pennsylvania? No, it can't be the policies, it has to be bad candidates all of them. Independents see taxes being raised, and spending being raised just like old democrats, we have found the change was only better marketing.

[MsDee]

I would also blame political exhaustion. To get Obama elected, we had to punch and kick and fight for months to get what we wanted. A lot of us are tapped out and just ready to sit back and see the fruits of labor. Plus, think many people still don't realize the impact of the local, state elections.

But, unfortunately, I think the trend may continue. I recently moved to Colorado, after several years in Virginia, and the local buzz about the current governor here in Colorado is far from good. Local, very 'liberal' papers are bashing Ritter relentlessly. The latest move is he is planning to cut some funding for schools to help with the state budget, along with continuing the furloughs. Not good.

So, where does that leave us loyal, blue bloods? Vote for someone we're unhappy with, or stay home? The clock is ticking..

[Paul Loeb - Huffpost Blogger]

I talk a lot about political exhaustion in the new version of Soul of a Citizen, out this March. But it has been a year. So I think we're dealing with something more psychological than physical, even if we ran on adrenaline nonstop all last year, as many of us did

[ladyfractal]

Btw. to JanP;

I took the liberty of looking at Nobel Prizes in Medicine covering JUST the last 10 years. Of the 27 laureates in that field alone, 13 were Americans the other 14 were all from either Western Europe or Australia. For comparison, in the prior decade, of the 19 laureates all but 7 were Americans. So for the last decade, the ratio was 14/13 the prior decade it was 7/12.

However, let's look at actual health-care outcomes. According to the CIA World Factbook the United States has a higher infant mortality rate than any OTHER industrialized nation. It also has a lower life expectancy than any other life expectancy. Being an white American male shaves about 13 months off your life. For white American females it's about 11.5 months. For black American males it's 5 years! For black American females it's about 3.3 years.

Cheers
LF

[cabanas]

Continue being in denial, continue listening to your invisible IPod ignoring incoming traffic and warning signs, continue being the nagging wife when it comes to blaming Bush, continue demeaning and vilifying those who oppose the Democrats' agenda, continue muffling the Middle class. At the end there is 2010.

[ladyfractal]

HuffPost's Pick

There's a lot here for liberals and progressives to take note of.

The conservative side is fired up and they are willing to fight *dirty*. Liberals and progressives keep making the mistake of believing that conservatives want to negotiate with us. They don't. It's manifestly clear that they don't. They want to *win* and they will do anything it takes to win. I do not know a *single* conservative who likes Sarah Palin who is *at all* interested in there being a viable, liberal, opposition. It may be healthy for the country for there to be two ideological poles at opposition and I certainly believe that it *is* good for the nation, but most true-believing conservatives don't believe that. They believe that an America without liberals would be a better America. They are willing to do whatever it takes to bring that America about. If that means ginning up fear that the health care bill currently before Congress will lead to Dachau, so be it. IF that's what it takes to win that's what they'll do.

If it means being in bed with the Birthers, the Deathers, the racists--then so be it. It doesn’t matter because it will mean the defeat of liberal ideas.

I'm not suggesting that liberals and progressives take up those tactics and strategies and make them our own. I AM suggesting that we should stop pretending that the people we're fighting against have any place for us in their America--they don't.

Cheers
LF

[whatnowgop]

HuffPost's Pick

When will we learn to fight like them. They have been successful using it. We don't have to use the lies they use, but grow a spine and get some more mouths out there like Grayson and work for Progressive or Liberal radio stations like Limbaugh and others. We need some rich people that have our beliefs to start investing in flooding the radio and TV market with our version of propaganda. Hit Conservatives hard in their soft bellies. Out their lies and make fun of them. Change the language like they have. If they attempt to hijack language like their think tanks have in the past just keep repeating things like they do. They will lie and be proven wrong, but they keep repeating the same thing. This will take a lot of work, but it will pay off in the years to come.

[drdarkeny]

Exactly what I keep saying! The Right is incapable of seeing reason or logic as anything other than weakness - so let's give that attitude right back TO them, in spades!

[MysticalPippin]

Oh YEAH! Whatnowgop! Fantastic post.You've been fanned! I've been saying this since 2001! Why in the heck are the Dems such push overs when it comes to the Reps lies and demands? Obama should've just said - here is the bill and we're passing it. If you Reps don't like it - tough - DEAL WITH IT! Forget about the bi-partisan attitude because in the past 50 years the Reps sure as hell have. They could care less what's right, fair and above all the truth. Why do we keep cow-towing to these morons who clearly hate anyone that doesn't have the same ideology as them. Why do we continue to bend over backwards to please the handfull of the far right nut jobs like the limbaugh machine, who use their archaic religious beliefs (ahem, I mean their FAKE religious beliefs) as the guiding rule for governing a free country? These people are so far from having real faith and the policies they claim to live by that they are nothing but charactcatures of the conservative fundamentals.
The Dems need to stand up to these bullies - show the country what liars & hypocrites they are and move to make the changes while there is still time.

[ndbltwy]

It's hard to get excited about the political process when you see Democrats being the problem. We knew the GOP wasn't going to help pass health care but to see the Democrats choose contributions over constituents, its heart breaking. You start to doubt all you thought you believed in, there really isn't a difference between the two party's when you get right down to it. Harry Reid, spineless. Nancy Pelosi, cant get to 218 without giving away the store. Obama marches around the country for 2 years shouting out "Public Option" gets in office public option who? And worse of all the message the spineless Democrats got Tuesday is they have gone too far. So this is what we're supposed to get excited over and go vote, yeah give me a break, better yet give me a reason to vote!

[rad21]

The take-home lessons are:

1. Attack wavvering Democrats in the primary with good challengers.
2. Plan and Defend well-thoug­ht-through policy positions. (We do not reduce high cost of healthcare with more reimbursement to providers achieved by raising taxes).
3. Taxing and spending more is not a solution.
4. End the "too big to fail" approach.
5. There is too much dilly-dallying on important policy issues.