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Paul Loeb

Paul Loeb

Posted: January 16, 2010 07:32 PM

Call for Coakley: How Three Votes Can Tip an Election

What's Your Reaction:

On election day 2004, I was canvassing in my home state of Washington, alternating between knocking on doors for gubernatorial candidate Christine Gregoire and breaking to call Ohio and Florida. After three recounts, Gregoire won by 129 votes. I had no idea my state election was so close, but I did get three people who wouldn't have otherwise voted: One forgot it was election day. One needed a ride to the polls. A third didn't know how to turn in her absentee ballot. If you multiply my efforts by those of thousands of other volunteers, we clearly helped make the difference. Had more volunteered on the other side, the results would be reversed.

I'm thinking about this in terms of the election to fill Ted Kennedy's seat. The Democrats have disappointed many of us. But Kennedy fought for progressive change the bulk of his life. Martha Coakley may not be a great campaigner, but she's worked and voted for the same causes, while her opponent, Scott Brown, is a right wing Republican who's opposed everything Kennedy ever stood for. If people are pissed at Obama and the Democratic Senate for not doing all they promised, electing Brown adds yet another right wing Senator for three years or longer. With turnout likely to be low, Republicans motivated, and polls showing a toss-up or even a slight Brown lead, it would be a tragedy if he slipped in on resentment backlash, and the demoralization of progressive voters and volunteers.

Many of us know that, and we're hoping Coakley will pull it out, but that's not enough. We can donate, and should. But we can also call, as so many of us did, in 2006 and 2008. And those calls do make a difference, and even more in an off-year election where turnout is likely to be low, where the positions of the candidates can be blurred, and where there's a third party, unrelated conservative Kennedy on the ballot. Imagine if we each convinced three additional voters, or one or two, and 20,000 other volunteers did the same, and the margin ended up a thousand votes, five hundred votes, or the 312 votes that elected Al Franken over the execrable Norm Coleman in 2008.

I remember calling in 2006 through MoveOn's Call for Change program, contacting voters in Virginia, Missouri, Montana, and other states with key Senate and Congressional races. Grabbing spare moments where I could, I dialed my way across the country, convincing maybe 20 people who wouldn't have otherwise to back the Democratic challengers. Some initially resisted saying, "They're all the same. They're all corrupts." Or "My vote won't matter so why bother." But I convinced them to vote, and added a few with election-day reminders. Later I read that MoveOn had 120,000 volunteers. If each had half the impact of my efforts, that meant over a million votes, in a season when US Senate seats swung on margins as close as Montana's 3,500 votes, Virginia's 9,000, Rhode Island's 29,000, or Missouri's 48,000, our common efforts tipped the balance. Many of us made a key difference calling states like Minnesota, Ohio, North Carolina and Indiana in 2008. And the Senators we elected in 2006 and in 2008 have been good ones, and by and large supported decent agendas, in contrast with ones like Lieberman, Nelson, and Baucus. They haven't been the problem.

It's easy to think of our individual election volunteering as insignificant. But when enough of us act even in small ways, we can have a powerful impact. Studies have found that if you talk to a dozen people by going door-to-door, you'll likely add at least one new voter for your candidate, a ratio that tends to hold true from local to federal elections, so long as you're working in reasonably receptive neighborhoods. Phone outreach can have a similar impact, though you need to talk with more people for a comparable result.

We all have more than enough demands on our time, but even if we just each spend a hour, it could tip the difference. I had no idea my efforts would be so critical in 2004. They may well be again.

Paul Loeb is the author of Soul of a Citizen: Living with Conviction in Challenging Times, which St Martin's will publish April 5 in a wholly revised edition, and The Impossible Will Take a Little While: A Citizen's Guide to Hope in a Time of Fear, named the #3 political book of 2004 by the History Channel and the American Book Association. See www.paulloeb.org To receive Paul's articles directly email sympa@lists.groundwire.org with the subject line: subscribe paulloeb-articles

 
 
 

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08:28 PM on 03/05/2010
I'm not convinced that personally walking around knocking on doors is the most effective use of time. Can't we find something a little more effective? A "Force Multiplier" ? At least phone calls are faster.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Loeb
Author Soul of a Citizen and The Impossible Will T
05:03 PM on 01/18/2010
A couple thoughts. It's 92Vette's right to support George Bush politics, but that is what she and Brown embrace. She argued earlier "the view from around the world never changed under Bush, that is just a lie. People that liked the USA still like the USA. People like terrorist hated the USA still hate the USA.”

Coakley wouldn't have been first choice--I liked Capuano and Khazai better, but they're strongly supporting her for a reason. They all represent a progressive politics in Ted Kennedy's tradition. Brown goes in the other direction. Saying "he's for health care but not the current Democratic care plan" in case doesn't mean public option or single payer or progressive payment. He supports the general Republican line which is effectively the line of the insurance companies.

If you like the Mitch McConnell Republican Party, it's reasonable to vote for Brown. If you don't however, it's totally self-defeating.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Nelson Montana
Artist, Author, Composer
09:30 AM on 01/18/2010
This is a valuable lesson for the Democrats. Being in power isn't a privilege, it's a responsibility. You have a certain amount of time to get things done or you're out. Looks like they're out. But I wonder if they'll realize why.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Wallysmom
What Washington needs is adult supervision.
08:50 AM on 01/18/2010
"Scott Brown, is a right wing Republican who's opposed everything Kennedy ever stood for." That in itself speaks volumes for why Massachusetts voters should think twice before voting for him. Regardless of how poor a campaign Coakley is running, to give the Republicans this win -- something to slap in the faces of every Democratic running in 2010 -- would be enough to keep me from putting this man into the Senate seat.
02:00 PM on 01/18/2010
The thing that's killing the corporate Democrats is that they sold out their base. They are not going to get people to the polls with "We're not Bush," "Look out! Sarah Palin," and "Where else are you gonna go?"

The Democrats need a slap in the face. Maybe they'd wake up and realize that benefitting corporations at the expense of the American people is what may get them kicked out of office in November.
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Wallysmom
What Washington needs is adult supervision.
02:28 PM on 01/18/2010
You must be young or you don't follow politics. The Republicans have NEVER been for the blue-collar, union, minority, working type or women. They, not the Democrats, have been in favor of wealth for a few (white, male, fat and happy) and big corporate control. The Democrats didn't sell out their base, they did not do all that Progressives wanted on the healthcare front. REPUBLICANS NOT Democrats were kicked out of office in November....geeze.
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GunnyJ
I do my best every time.
06:58 AM on 01/18/2010
If Brown wins, then the people have spoken. The people of the great state of Ma must be prepared to live with and fully support Mr. Brown and his ideals. Let's hope they know what they are doing....
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middleoftheroad
01:05 PM on 01/18/2010
You know, I think Dems are just a bit unhinged...they still Have Kerry, The Gov Mansion, EVERY rep, the State House and most local positions...You think this one vote for SOME checks and balances is the end of the world?
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02:57 AM on 01/18/2010
Sorry Paul, if you intention was to inspire demoralized Dems in MA, your article just doesn't cut the muster. Don't tell me to make a trillion telephone calls when I don't even know whether I will make it to the polls. You must not know much about Coakley or MA if you think that she could even begin to fill Teddy shoes. I didn't vote for her in the primary. Michael Capuano, my State Rep, would have been a much better candidate. But beyond this, the race is a referendum on Obama's policies and the health care legislation in particular. Obama acts like a Republican, don't you think? Give me a good reason to vote for Coakley.
07:30 PM on 01/17/2010
Obama couldn't even fill the 3000 seat hall for Coakley today, without estimates at 1100. Meanwhile, Brown had sold out his 3000 seat hall, with a huge overflow crowd estimated at over 1000.

It's over kiddies, Kennedy's seat is lost. I wonder how Dems will fare in Arkansas and Indiana come November ahhahahha.
11:43 PM on 01/17/2010
he only needs to fill the voting booths and it's funny how people will turn up in the end....people who get...this Brown guy...hasn't got an health care plan either...and you need one cause the costs are going up as we type..
11:58 PM on 01/17/2010
Sadly, the bill in the senate has been reduced to mandates to purchase insurance from politically connected monopolies that will only be regulated by the same toothless state boards that don't enforce the consumer protections we have now.

Forcing people to buy from monopolies who's only responsibility is to raise prices as high as they can and to pay out as little as they can to maximize shareholder profits is bad. When those monopolies are allowed to engage in price-fixing because of an anti-trust exemption, it's worse. When those monopolies will only be regulated by the same toothless state boards that don't enforce the regulations we have now, it's downright immoral. And there's more:

* Large age ratios force older consumers to pay substantially more for their premiums
* Insurers are given wide latitude in design policies and allows for the sale of very low 60% actuarial junk insurance and “catastrophic plans”
* People will be force to pay 9.8% of their income for a low value insurance plan
* The weak risk adjuster that would not stop insurers from trying to game the system and cherry pick customers

So this really is all about benefiting the insurance companies. It's worse than nothing and won't control costs. Taxes, premiums, and out-of-pocket costs will go up.
07:10 PM on 01/17/2010
When pharma doesn't get what they were promised by Democrats, they withhold funds and run attack ads.

When voters don't get what they were promised by Democrats, they work harder, make calls, give money, and drag friends to polls.

Which approach works better?

Take a look at the drug reimportation amendment that died in the senate.

Sticking with Democrats, no matter how many times they've sold out doesn't make them respect voters more. Maybe this election, whether it's close or a loss, will wake Democrats so they can change course.

Because if they repeat the Great Sellout of 2009, they're toast in November.
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middleoftheroad
01:07 PM on 01/18/2010
And where was Coakley last week (he night her guy was knocking down reporters)? DC at a BIG PHARMA fundraiser, while Brown was hitting the streets meeting with voters.
06:33 PM on 01/17/2010
I'm in Michigan,where things are rough. People gave Bush 2 terms and think for some reason they should trash the Dems after 12 mo. Bad math.. Change the leadership, put pressure to bear,
but don't abandon the party. Set an example-take the higher road. Obama may have let people down
but show him that we have fight and spirit. and won't be forgotten. That's right-make this UNFORGETTABLE.
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Paul Loeb
Author Soul of a Citizen and The Impossible Will T
05:06 PM on 01/18/2010
Totally agreed. I'm furious at Lieberman and Nelson and the others who held the health care bill hostage. That doesn't mean electing Republicans who care about nothing except blocking every initiative the Democrats propose.
06:05 PM on 01/17/2010
I should also point out that the vast majority of voters I have spoken with (now nearing 100) have been not just pro-Coakley, but STRONGLY pro-Coakley. I have talked to a half dozen people who are voting for her AND bringing along other eligible voters for her as well!

We can win this.

One of my favorite sayings: "If you have to go down, you might as well go down swinging." C'mon folks, get out there and volunteer.

http://my.barackobama.com/CoakleyN2N
DUSAA-1775
never moon a werewolf
06:35 PM on 01/17/2010
well that proves it !! Coakley wins with 99% of the vote !!
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middleoftheroad
01:08 PM on 01/18/2010
Look at a place like Marlborough, MA...has been full of Obama signs on yards, and now it's full of Brown signs. It's over.
06:05 PM on 01/17/2010
I got this email from MoveOn.org:

On Tuesday, January 19th, there's a special election in Massachusetts to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.

...special interests have poured in hundreds of thousands of dollars to mislead voters -- and the traditionally low turnout in special elections means this race could be very, very close.

The stakes here are incredibly high. You know how hard we've fought and how close we've come to finally passing health reform. But also know this: To get the job done, we need Martha Coakley's vote in the Senate.

No matter where you live, you can play an essential role. OFA volunteers around the country are calling key Massachusetts voters and making sure they know when and where to vote, and how important electing Martha Coakley is to the country.

Each voter we reach could be the one who tips the balance.

Can you help by calling potential voters in Massachusetts?

Making these calls could be the single most important thing you can do right now to ensure the passage of health reform.

Martha Coakley will be a vital ally to President Obama in helping our families get back to work, launching a clean-energy economy, and reining in the Wall Street abuses that still put so many Americans at risk.

But it all comes down to you. We need you to help get the word out, so please start calling today:

http://my.barackobama.com/CoakleyN2N
07:16 PM on 01/17/2010
What do I say when they ask why President Obama is calling for mandates when Candidate Obama said, "If mandates worked, we could solve homelessness by mandating that everyone buy a house?"

What do I say when they ask why President Obama is pushing for an excise tax on those with high insurance premiums to fund this bill when Candidate Obama said there would be no taxes on benefits?

What do I say when they ask where that "fierce advocate for gay rights" went as Rick Warren, a man who was a mentor to the minister who introduced legislation in Uganda to execute all homosexuals, was a speaker at the Inauguration.

What do I say when they ask why, one week before the election, Martha Coakley wasn't in Massachusetts but was at a DC fundraiser sponsored by pharma and health insurance lobbyists who managed to make the health care reform bill into little more than mandates to purchase insurance from politically connected monopolies that will only be regulated by toothless state boards that don't enforce the laws we have now?

I feel too betrayed to support the Democrats. How can I ask anyone else to do it?
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Doug Watt
Not ready for 2012
07:40 PM on 01/17/2010
Exactly. I'm not about to vote for a Republicans but we've been had by Obama.

Now Obama is going to a prayer breakfast with the Ugandan who wrote the proposed law calling for death for gays.

I can't support such a craven politician anymore.
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Pumpsie
05:58 PM on 01/17/2010
Massachusetts progressive and independent voters have to do the right thing here and that is defeat Coakley, who is a stand-in for Obama. If THIS is what it takes to defeat this monstrosity (and this is exactly what it is, a monstrosity) of a healthcare bill, then so be it. The country will be better off in the long run for it. The Emmanuel Presidency has already flipped a middle finger at progressives everywhere by steering a hard right course in favor of big banks, the healthcare insurance scam industry, and the richest elites. This time, let's hope that Massachusetts progressives flip that finger right back at these bastards. Stop being suckers for the Democratic Party. Let's start a real Progressive party movement.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Loeb
Author Soul of a Citizen and The Impossible Will T
06:42 PM on 01/17/2010
I've always disliked liked Rahm Emmanuel, but this kind of self-defeating purism makes no sense. Obama finally did propose a progressive tax on the banks. Coakley supports it, Brown opposes it. Coakley would be pushing to follow up on the health bill, which might still give us a chance at something better, like a public option down the line. Brown is a total shill for the insurance companies, which means no restrictions on what they can do. Coakely opposes Afghan escalation. Brown supports Bush style foreign policy.

The notion of sending a message by electing right wing Republicans was a disaster in 1994 and it if it happens again, it will be further disaster. Protest in the streets, for sure, but if you have a chance to elect a decent progressive Senator over right winger, you take it.
07:08 PM on 01/17/2010
Coakley spent the Tuesday before the election at a pharma/insurance industry lobbyist fundraiser in DC. She doesn't even seem concerned about being viewed as an insurance industry sellout.

And the we'll fix it later nonsense is a big lie. If they aren't doing it now, they won't fix it later. When Democrats held their noses and voted for No Child Left Behind under Bush, they vowed they'd fix it. They took the House, nothing. The Senate, nothing. They still haven't gone back to fix NCLB. Ask any teacher and they will tell you that it has decimated education. Some reforms are worse than nothing.

This mandate to purchase insurance from politically connected monopolies that will only be regulated by toothless state boards that don't enforce the consumer protections we have now is worse than nothing.

Insurers will never let captive customers go. They have everything they want. They aren't going back to the negotiating table. They won't let the senators they bought go back either. We are the serfs of the insurers for the next generation.
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10:53 AM on 01/18/2010
As to whether people have enough sense to realize that, the issue is in doubt.
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jcaunter
Profile: schizoid, INTJ, IQ145
05:31 PM on 01/17/2010
I didn't like being disrespected after I worked long, hard hours to get Obama elected in 2008. And I'm positive that if I went out of my way to help Coakley I'd feel just as under-appreciated. So thanks, but no thanks on this one.

I suppose now all of the establishment Democrats can see now exactly what it means to have your base mad at you. I don't care; leave me alone.
06:01 PM on 01/17/2010
Well, you can bet that I'll be on the phones, calling my heart out...for Scott Brown. I'm in California, but this race is too important to let slip, just as the original author noted. My calls, and the calls of others like me, will assure some sanity returns to the halls of government in DC. Go Scott Brown!

http://www.CitizenConservative.com
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06:17 PM on 01/17/2010
Scott Brown and Martha Coakley are two corporate peas in a pod. Neither of them cares about anything more than the corporate lobbyists who fund their campaign.

The similarities don't stop there. Scott Brown has ran an anti-gay crusade during an election. Martha Coakley ran a wichhunt that landed an innocent family in prison in advance of one of her campaigns. Neither of these politicians deserve the public's trust.
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TomDegan
Author of "The Rant": http://www.tomdegan.blogspot
08:35 AM on 01/17/2010
Mississippi? Without a doubt.

Alabama? Inevitable.

Texas? A foregone conclusion.

Having said that, I refuse to believe that - given all that the GOP has done to this once-great nation in the past decade - the good people of Massachusetts would be stupid enough to send a Republican to Washington at this point in our history.

I'm sorry but I just refuse to believe it.

http://www.tomdegan.blogspot.com

Tom Degan
Goshen, NY
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dsws
No owning ideas. Limit only commercial use.
05:21 PM on 01/17/2010
I might feel the same if I were sitting in NY. Here in MA, I can't take that chance. I have to go volunteer.
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BillZBubb
It's hot in here: I need more fans!
11:37 PM on 01/16/2010
This election season is going to be a repeat of 1994. The Democrats had a chance to lead and they have blown it. From Obama on down, they abandoned their base to please the right wing and moneyed interests. The bank bailouts, the non-reform health care bill, Gitmo, no action on jobs, you name it all have been disasters. How could a Democratic president and congress not act aggressively on job creation when unemployment is over 10%???? It is amazing and pathetic.

Progressives like me are demoralized and unethusiastic. If Coakley loses, the health care bill might die. I ask "Is that a bad thing?" It is a bad bill with plenty of goodies for the insurance industry and big pharma but very little for the average person. It doesn't do much to reform anything. The mandates will cost Democrats seats too.

Having the "60th" vote is meaningless when people like Lieberman and Nelson are in that count.