More

Paul Loeb

Paul Loeb

Posted: May 21, 2008 07:23 PM

The Bosnian Sniper Math of Clinton's Popular Vote Claim


Obama did the right thing by praising Clinton following the Oregon and Kentucky vote, and working to reweave the fabric of Democratic unity. And I'm delighted that Clinton said, "No matter what happens, I will work as hard as I can to elect a Democratic president this fall." But then she insisted once again, that "we are winning the popular vote." This lie undermined every word she said about coming together.

The superdelegates understand the real math, or they ought to. But given the "bitterness" of so many Clinton supporters toward reality that the woman they thought would be America's first female president will not be, the more they hear a story that suggests Obama's win is illegitimate, the more likely they are to bolt. If Clinton's voters embrace that story that "a man took it away from a woman," denied her a victory she rightly deserved, they're at risk of staying home come November, or holding back from the volunteering and the get out the vote efforts necessary for the Democrats to prevail.

Look at Clinton's math. She leads only if you give her 328,000 votes for the Soviet-style Michigan election, while giving Obama zero for not being on the ballot. And if you then ignore the caucuses of Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and my own state of Washington -- where a record quarter million people turned out to participate. Our votes don't count under Clinton's math. She disappears them down the memory hole of history in an argument that invents reality as much as Bush's claims of Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction or Clinton's earlier story about running the gauntlet of Bosnian sniper fire.

If the media corrected this, it would be less of a problem, but they haven't, or at least not in the same stories where they repeat her claim. The AP story in my local Seattle newspaper reported Clinton's claim without question, saying only that it included contested Florida and Michigan votes and excluded the Iowa caucuses. The otherwise excellent New York Times story included not even the slightest corrections or caveats, although the Times has done other stories on the subject. Neither mentioned that polls actually have Obama doing marginally better in Michigan than Clinton, nor have they explored the impact of roughly 60,000 Democratic voters who crossed over in Michigan to vote Republican, many of whom were participating in a mirror image of Rush Limbaugh's "operation chaos" campaign. Clinton's argument also ignores that this isn't how the rules are set up, and that if they had been, Obama would have made time, following the Iowa victory that made voters take him seriously, to have made more than three brief visits to California and one to New York State.

Clinton's been praised of late for refraining from any truly outrageous comments, like her claim, following the Indiana and North Carolina primaries two weeks ago, that only she has the support of hard working white voters. That still reminds me of a workplace sign proclaiming "14 days since a fatal accident.". But every time she claims she has a popular majority, she's shattering whatever ceasefire exists and making it that much more likely that her supporters stay home come November. If she really wants a united party, she needs to stop, and the media and the superdelegates need to hold her accountable.

Paul Rogat Loeb is the author of The Impossible Will Take a Little While: A Citizen's Guide to Hope in a Time of Fear, and Soul of a Citizen. See www.paulloeb.org To receive his articles directly email sympa@lists.onenw.org with the subject line: subscribe paulloeb-articles

 
 
  • Comments
  • 353
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3 4 5  Next ›  Last »  (6 total)
11:55 AM on 05/23/2008
Well, excuse me for being so simplistic, but without counting all of the votes, the election is illegitimate. Sometimes things are exactly as they appear. No need to over think this one. I also still do not understand another simple one. Why did Obama pull his name off the ballot in Michigan in the first place? Seems like a lot of words and no logic to me.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
vipersdad
01:16 PM on 05/23/2008
Both candidates agreed to decertify the results. Other Dem Candidates pulled their names as well. The better question is why Hillary left her name on there after making the agreement she made. Feels like she is not being true to her word on this issue.
01:46 PM on 05/23/2008
First, I would like you to name a presidential primary in the last 20 years (except this one, of course) where the people in the last states had a choice! Hell, in 2004 we didn't even have a choice by super tuesday!!!

Second, Obama pulled his name off the ballot because that's what was expected of him. Even though the pledge that they ALL agreed to didn't specifically state that they would remove their names from the ballot, it was known by ALL candidates that the pledge was meant to include appearing on the ballot. So Obama had more integrity than did Hillary!
09:43 PM on 05/27/2008
so, "integrity" is doing what the party tells you to do?
photo
janmB
INSPIRED
03:23 AM on 05/23/2008
WOMEN ARE ANGRY. THIS CAMPAIGN HAS SHOWN HOW MUCH HATE AND DISRESPECT FOR WOMEN THIS COUNTRY HAS.

Doesn't the progressive movement know how divisive it has been that every democratic talk show host in this country has been trashing Hillary Clinton. (except Thom and your AARadio's most recent guest host, Ron Kubie)

what is the purpose of the super delegates if they are to rubber stamp the person who gets the margin of delegates so small as to be able to be changed by the 700 super delegates." ?????

Super delegates had no role when a candidate had more than 700 more delegates than the opponent. This race has been a RARE case. The super delegates have been coerced to support Obama has alienated Hillary Clinton voters to a devastating (won't vote for Dem ticket) extent. We are angry out here...most angry with progressive radio

PEOPLE NEED TO HAVE A POLICY REASON, not just the stupid, vapid "change and hope, change and hope" childish chant!"
08:33 AM on 05/23/2008
Actually, if you look at the race which caused the superdelegates to be created (1980, Carter v Kennedy) you will find that they were created after Teddy Kennedy ignored the will of the voters which gave a plurality of delegates to Jimmy Carter, and thus they were created to ensure that the party would not have another case where a losing candidate ignored the rules and ran too far!
11:37 PM on 05/22/2008
Jonathan Alter’s “No on toe Florigan†in Newsweek Magazine (May 19, 2008) provides some insight on Hillary Clinton’s claims about Florida and Michigan. Here is a summary of what Alter’s article contained.

1. Both Florida and Michigan violated rule set down by the DNC to create some order in the primary process, which is still in serious need of reform.
2. Hillary Clinton intially said that the votes from Florida and Michigan should not count.
3. In 1004, Clinton's campaign manager, Terry McAuliffe then head of the DNC told Carl Levin â€If I allow you to do that, (Move the Michigan primary) the whole system collapses. The rules are the rules.†(This quote comes from Alter's article
4. Obama did not enter the Michigan primary or campaign in Florida because he was following the rules sent down by the DNC. Hillary was disobeying the rules.


I do favor a compromise of some sort. But the compromise must be based on the following:
1. The compromise cannot condone scofflaws.
2. The compromise must not reward lying and cheating.
3. The compromise must not penalize candidates for following the rules.
4. Hillary Clinton must admit that she lied to the public regarding Michigan and Florida

I would also like to know whether any he politicians responsible for the Florida and Michigan imbroglio had any connections to Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

I might close by saying I really do not appreciate Hillary Clinton’s latest attempt at pandering. Democrats need a united party.
08:34 AM on 05/23/2008
I say then that we add the delegates from FL and MI at a 50/50 rate, and leave the supers from these states out of it!
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
AlphaDoc
2 wrongs don't make a right, but 3 lefts do.
10:14 PM on 05/22/2008
Let's not forget her recent assertions that it is the Democratic party which is seeking to disenfranchise "her" voters in Florida and Michigan. Every time she makes such a claim, she is giving her supporters permission, if not downright orders, to cross over and vote for a Republican who will strip them of their right to choose and embroil them and those they love in yet another unnecessary and bloody war. The woman is a sociopath, and the superdelegates should move to stop her immediately.
photo
janmB
INSPIRED
03:27 AM on 05/23/2008
WHEN IT COMES TO BEING NASTY----DEMOCRATS ARE AS BAD AS REPUBLICANS ONLY WORSE AS THEY EAT THEIR OWN KIND. !!
I HAVE NEVER SEEN SUCH HATE FOR WOMEN IN THIS COUNTRY AS DURING THIS CAMPAIGN.

Doesn't the progressive movement know how divisive it has been that every democratic talk show host in this country has been trashing Hillary Clinton. (except you Thom and your AARadio's most recent guest host, Ron Kubie)

What is the purpose of the super delegates if they are to rubber stamp the person who gets the margin of delegates so small as to be able to be changed by the 700 super delegates."

The PUBLIC NEEDS TO HAVE A POLICY REASON, not just the stupid, vapid "change and hope, change and hope" childish chant!" for OBAMA.

Obama's ties to terrorists----to I HATE AMERICA spewing Pastor Wright HIS MENTOR for 20 years.
This country has gone NUTS.
08:36 AM on 05/23/2008
First, to complain about how nasty Obama supporters are being to Hillary by using a post like this completely negates both your point and your credibility.

Second, when people get inspired by Obama, and not by Hillary, they are going to support him! Just like we did with Bill Clinton (though to a greater extent!) and just like we did with JFK!!!
10:30 PM on 05/24/2008
The subject matter and the style of your post is not only extremely negative, but also is spewing the venom and poison your are complaining about. I counted no less that ten words: nasty, hate, bad, worse, stupid, vapid, childish chant, terrorist, nuts, all of which suggest what's in your mind. Have you ever considered visiting a therapist.
No one hates women in general as you seem to suggest. People only dislike the kind of women that lie. cheat, and whine because they are sore losers. They complain of unfairness
when their lies and underhanded methods are called into question, and to make matters worse, they accuse others, usually decent human beings of being the cheaters.
Women are not hated because they are women. If they are disliked is because of their foul behavior. So, please. Get yourself some therapy, and get your hatred out of your system, and stop projecting yourself.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wrabbitt
Soylent Green IS People.
09:58 PM on 05/22/2008
Hillary is a Washington insider, and we are seeing how it is used to change facts to fit her scenario. The Clinton years in the white house were notable for the Monica scandal, and Bill's 5 cent gas tax. And many other Insider games. Lobbyists are her best friends,the favors owed by her are numerous. After she has destroyed the Democratic party, maybe she will come back here to upstate New York, and lose her job as we all have. After eight years of Clinton, do we need more? Obama said he wouldn't be a perfect president, but at least when he pats you on the back you don't have to worry about the Clinton knife, Et Too,Hillary? Hillary please go to the Republican Party ! They are good at lying ,and making things up as they go along. McCain needs a running mate. You can always say "natural causes"
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Rutabaga
Total geek, and proud of it.
09:27 PM on 05/22/2008
Hillary Clinton is destroying the Democratic Party with her behavior...she really is like a toddler who isn't getting her way, and she's going to have a tantrum for as long as possible until someone finally gives her the lollipop she so desperately wants. The lollipop that she feels she deserves, and is entitled too.

I have also lost a lot of respect for Bill Clinton during this whole fiasco. He's basically been a jerk, to put it simply.

If McCain wins in November, I feel a lot of the blame for it will be on Hillary Clinton's shoulders. She's attempting to drag this fight on so long that the corporate media, which apparently cannot focus on more than one subject at a time (unless it has to do with things like American Idol, The Hills, celebrity babies, celebrity mugshots, murders of pretty young white women, or polygamy cults) will continue to give McCain a free ride until the damage simply will not be able to be undone.

What gets me, though, is the number of Clinton supporters who have vowed to never vote for Obama if he's the nominee and will instead vote for McCain or for no one at all. When I hear their huffing and puffing, all I can think of is that classic line from Fast Times At Ridgemont High..."What are you people, on dope???"
11:38 AM on 05/23/2008
Thank you! well said ..Rutabaga!

Might I add....All those saying ......Poor hillary, they hate her because she is a woman.

She is telling people to think this.

What they Are not noticing is that ..... IT IS... .... her very bad behavior! ........that they hate ..not her gender....
07:55 PM on 05/22/2008
I just wish the Dem. party leaders would do their damn job and get this nut out of here cause she is clearly not giving a damn about the Dem. party nor is her husband! She could care less about the Dem. party and I wish everyone would stop suggesting that she be the V.P. choice! No way in Hell should he even consider her.She brings nothing to the table for the Dem. party nor does she help him.The best thing that could happen is that her supporters wake the hell up and start acting like real dems. This is not about Hillary! Hell think of yourselves and help elect Sen.Obama!! OBAMA'08
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wrabbitt
Soylent Green IS People.
07:14 PM on 05/22/2008
Hillary has invented a new, new math! If her intention is to run with McCain then we Dems can feel free to win with a landslide. She has a better chance of winning the nomination from the repubs as Mcsames running mate (watch your pages john)
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mheister
Raconteur. Blog michaelheister.com
06:37 PM on 05/22/2008
The funniest recent description of Hillary Clinton I have heard is she's the "Democratic Party's psychotic ex-girlfriend."

I well realize that description is incendiary to some feminists - and I hasten to add she's done some good work in the Senate and her husband was the best moderate Republican president this country's had since Eisenhower - but to those of us still in the dating pool, the comparison hits us as funny because there's a kernel of truth there.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gevan
the pilgrim has landed
06:05 PM on 05/22/2008
Now now, just think of what you are saying. For a Clinton to stop lying, it would take the intervention of an omnipotent deity...i.e. a miracle. So keep praying if you like, but don't bet the family farm on it.
04:55 PM on 05/22/2008
We are all so emotional about this whole thing, aren't we.

It's just like this year's Super Bowl. I had read an article by a doctor just before that game, in which he said the chances of getting a heart attack while watching the Super Bowl, is 50% higher.

Speaking of math and the Super Bowl and emotions, against all odds, New York ended up winning, just as the Senator from New York can end up winning, as well.

Then she'll have Obama as V.P., uniting the party, then our chances of having a heart attack will be greatly reduced.
05:57 PM on 05/22/2008
People tend to get emotional when you tie your personal ambition to the plight of millions of People in the Civil Rights era. She not only will not win, she will not be VP, and will be lucky to remain in the Senate.
07:51 PM on 05/22/2008
Yes, and I would add that there is zero chance Obama would accept the VP position on her ticket.

Obama supporters are not racists like so many Hillary supporters. We aren't dumb enough to vote for McCain. But there is a chance that millions of Obama supporters will stay home (or at work) on election day.

Hillary was smart enough (until her "hard working white people" comment) to not make the most outrageous comments herself. She would just let her rabid supporters make them and let it go. It has gone on for so long now that it is obvious her campaign appreciates the bitter, angry and hateful comments coming from her supporters.

- Obama/Bloomberg '08
12:30 AM on 05/23/2008
Since when does the person who is winning the nomination become the VP to the person who is losing?

Oh, I guess you must be living in the "Bizarro" world.
04:08 PM on 05/22/2008
My feeling is that we democrats have lost the election, and we have Hillary to thank for it. I have called and E-mailed the DNC, but today I called them and got a real person and was told that the Florida/Michigan situation would be resolved in an equitable way that is fair to both sides. I hope so, but it may be too late. Also, if it is fair and equitable, you can bet that Hillary will be against the decision.
04:03 PM on 05/22/2008
First of all, the popular vote doesn't count, only the delegate vote. Had Hillary's team planned and executed a perfect strategy like Obama's team has and was ahead in delegates, my guess is Obama would still be in the race but wouldn't be making a devisiive issue of it and Hillary's people would be calling them sexist for denying them the victory.

Second of all, when Obama was putting forth the argument that superdelegates should vote as the voters do, Hillary was saying not so fast. There was even talk of her trying to talk pledged delegates over to her side. Now, superdelegates are speaking in large numbers and are overwhelmingly for Obama. Some are doing it for unity. Others are doing it because he is their personal candidate of choice. She was the one who said Supers should vote their heart. That's what they are doing.

She is making every possible argument so that she can make every possible claim. If I ever get convicted of a crime, I want her to be the lawyer who handles my appeal. But that doesn't make her president.
06:27 PM on 05/22/2008
I don' think that Obama would still be in. He's been looking out for the party and the country forever, so he'd have already stepped down once it became obvious that he couldn't win!
03:12 PM on 05/22/2008
You guys, the primaries are like Indy qualifing, the racers get to use gasoline, they only race against a clock, in the actual race they have to use alcohol and tere is going to be someone on his ass.Obama has been running on high test fuel and he has the umbrella of the Democratic party to protect him, if he gets the nod, then he is going to be defending every bit of the way. Hillary did not let him have it like the Republicans are going to let him have it.
06:33 PM on 05/22/2008
He sure got a lot worse from Hillary than he gave to her.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Awakenedcitizen
01:33 AM on 05/23/2008
Friends--I logged in to Hillary's blog site and submitted a comment about working 110% for the nominee, whomever it is, and the 10 things about John McCain to be concerned about.
They did not publish my post. The only things on the site were the most viscious, vitriiolic, screaming (some put caps on for effect) posts I have ever seen. Thank you for mostly sane, sober comments here. BTW, as disgusted as I am with the Clinton campaign tactics, if she were to be the candidate, I would work my heart out to get a Democrat elected. A McCain presidency would put us back 20 years--and I am from Arizona.
08:40 AM on 05/23/2008
Looking at the race that I've seen (which is apparently different from the race that you've seen) it's been that Hillary has been trying to throw everything that she can find at him, and nothing has stuck. She's even thrown falsehoods at him, and nothing has happened. There's nothing out there to FIND, and Obama is much more likely to fight back when he knows that it won't rip the party apart (which is the reason why he hasn't been fighting back against Hillary!)
03:08 PM on 05/22/2008
I'm trying to imagine what Clinton is like when her shoes her off and she's relaxed and loose and I can't. Her husband praised her for being more relaxed now, saying that she was painfully shy when he met her. Add the reports of her sharp temper, and the anger that is often obvious behind her big smile. She's clearly wound so tight that her inner gears and sparks and misfires distract her vision. Add to that her excessive wealth and sense of importance, her flippancy towards budget issues in her own campaign and you have somebody who could be disastrous as president.

About McCain: you youngsters who fearfully pretend that age can be overcome haven't been there. Actual old people know perfectly well how age degrades you and oppose him. Its not the same as rasism or sexism.

Obama seems to turn to lofty, fuzzy ideals and compormise when he doesn't know what else to do, but at least he can see past his own nose, which means he will acually listen to experts. He frequently seems smart and wise and restrained. Yay Obama.