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Paul Yeager

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U.S. Warmth Continues, but Globally Coolest Land Temperatures Since 1994

Posted: 03/17/2012 6:38 pm

Reading any article based on statistics is a lesson in interpretation, and the latest global temperature statistics provide an opportunity for some differing opinions on the topic of the climate: While the United States had an exceptionally warm winter (fourth warmest) and global temperatures remained above average in February, global land areas were the coolest since 1994.

In other words, just as cold winter in the U.S. during the previous two years did not mean that it was cold globally, a warm U.S. winter this year didn't mean that it was warm globally. Determinations about global temperature trends need to be made based on global data, not the data in one part of the world.

The warmth in the U.S. in the winter (December through February) was exceptional, and it's a trend that has continued in earnest in March. However, the extreme cold affecting large portions of Europe from late January into February tempered the overall statistics, especially those for land surface temperatures.

The combined global land and sea surface temperature was 0.67 degrees (Fahrenheit) above the 20th century average, which is simultaneously the 22nd warmest February on record (since 1880) and the coolest February since 2008. The combined average land temperature was 0.68 degrees (F) above the 20th century average, which is simultaneously the 37th warmest February on record and the coolest since 1994.

The combined land and sea surface temperature is the most important since that gives the best overall indication of the global temperatures, and it remains above average. However, it may be surprising to those of us living in the currently warm U.S. weather to learn that land surface temperatures were the coolest they've been in nearly 20 years in February.

2012-03-17-significant_weather_events_2012.gif

No matter what we think of the individual statistics, it's clear that February was a month of extremes. Temperatures across the Midwest, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States were exceptionally warm, averaging nearly 8 degrees above the 20th century average. Meanwhile, on the Eurasian continent, an estimated 650 people were killed by extreme winter conditions, including record cold and record snowfall.

Other highlights included France the driest February since 1859 in France, the coldest February since 1959 in Germany, and a Madagascar cyclone (another name for hurricane) that killed 23 and left 190,000 people homeless. Also, Australia experience their 8th coolest February (late summer Down Under) on record.

The Arctic had the fifth lowest extent of sea ice on record, while the Antarctic had the fifth largest extent of sea ice on record.

 
 
 
Reading any article based on statistics is a lesson in interpretation, and the latest global temperature statistics provide an opportunity for some differing opinions on the topic of the climate: Whil...
Reading any article based on statistics is a lesson in interpretation, and the latest global temperature statistics provide an opportunity for some differing opinions on the topic of the climate: Whil...
 
 
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04:53 PM on 04/10/2012
We tend to focus on the climate of the moment, e.g. abnormally cold winter in New York, say. To better see trends we must look a broader pictures. For example over many decades we see shifting ranges for both flora and fauna across vast land areas or our planet. These broad-based shifts provide solid evidence for the ongoing warming of the earth. That's not to say that specific measurements such as atmospheric temperature profiles are not indicative, they certainly are. However until the recent addition of satellite based observations such measurements are non uniformly distributed over the earth making analysis difficult. Nevertheless the only argument now among scientists who actually have degrees in the field is how much of the warming is to to human activities...
03:10 AM on 03/20/2012
Climate quacks pretend that skeptic facts that the global warming rate has flattened since 1998 are due to 1998 being an outlier. To test this notion, I've plotted the linear trend every 2 years since 1998. As you can see apart from the trend from 2008, all other trends show a flat or cooling trend:-

http://tinyurl.com/7r7edc2

This is why you can't trust climate quacks, they deny science.
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Dallas Dunlap
07:15 AM on 03/20/2012
curryandwebster - Plotted the linear trend every two years? ROTFLMAO!
Please, look up the meaning of the term "statistical trend."
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DocSkull
My questions aren't rhetorical.
09:55 AM on 03/20/2012
You misunderstand. No one says it is an outlier. That has a different meaning from the way you are using it. It is merely the warmest of the set. Although warm, it's influence on the trend is only equal to one of many years. You are stubbornly pretend to that one year can over-rule the trend expressed by more than a hundred others. That is just plain wrong. You would need many years which are well below the average in order to reverse the trend, not just one particularly warm one.

An understanding of averages is part of grade school curriculum and I'm at a loss to explain how you could possibly be confused on that point. .
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niumarmion
a temporary being
11:35 PM on 03/19/2012
Thanks to the author for being truthful, but it has been so warm in the midwest that it seems so foreboding, although we are all enjoying the early summer.
03:13 AM on 03/20/2012
The 48 states and parts of Canada have been exceptionally warm. However, Alaska, Australia, Siberia and Australia have been exceptionally cold over the last 2 months. Other regions have varied.

A good way of looking at the whole globe is to look at the NOAA animation over the last 7 days here:-

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.anim.html
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DocSkull
My questions aren't rhetorical.
09:57 AM on 03/20/2012
Once again you try to evaluate the long-term global trend by looking at only parts of the globe and a mere week of time.
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redscarecrow
Left-wing knowitall
05:28 PM on 03/19/2012
Too warm too early this year, winters not what they used to be, makes this old New Englander nervous....
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DocSkull
My questions aren't rhetorical.
09:58 AM on 03/20/2012
Bugs are going to be fierce this year.
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AntiClast
If it ain't broke, don't break it!
11:30 AM on 03/20/2012
Maple syrup crop must be about non-existent, unless they got sap in February.
04:54 PM on 03/19/2012
We know the earth was cooling during the 30 years between 1940 and 1970. Now we learn that he earth has been cooling since 1994. I'm not ready to destroy our economy so Al Gore can buy another private jet.

We hear that the aquifers are being drained all over the world. Where does that water disappear to? Could that explain the rise in the oceans?
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jimboy71
Hen Diapheron Heautoi
05:11 PM on 03/19/2012
Oh good lord.
MGhamma
Reality is 100% biased!
06:44 PM on 03/19/2012
What part of "global land temps" don't you understand?

The surface of the earth is 3/4 water.

Ocean temps are at 2000 year highs.
03:17 AM on 03/20/2012
The ocean temperature is stable and certainly not at 2000 year highs:-
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/

Global warming is confined to the land, and isn't distributed evenly. The Arctic has had significantly greater warming than anywhere else.

You can't trust the climate quacks. They never provide evidence and make stuff up.
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PaulBardinas
Educating one person at a time.
04:49 PM on 03/19/2012
Either Paul Yeager is ignorant of all the facts as they relate to climate change, or he is being deliberately misleading when he implies that there is somehow confusion, or even contradiction in the data. Not sure.
06:02 PM on 03/19/2012
He provides a summary of the NOAA global state of the climate report every month. Don't hear you complaining when it shows warming.
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PaulBardinas
Educating one person at a time.
01:03 PM on 03/20/2012
Why would I complain when he shows the NOAA report. It's the cherry picking and misleading comments he makes that I object to, not the data itself.
10:45 PM on 03/19/2012
I don't think he implied that. He did point out that the sea temperature continues to rise.
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PaulBardinas
Educating one person at a time.
01:32 PM on 03/20/2012
I'm not suggesting that he was is lying or even supressing data. I suggest that the way he interprets the data implies that these often contradictory regional or weather related conditions make it appear as though the data would suggest equivalent evidence for global cooling and warming. That is simply not the case. Weather extremes are the hallmark of climate change induced by global warming. A 2°F rise in average global temps doesn't translate into linear increases in rising temps for every part of the planet. Global warming was predicted to unleash extremes of droughts in some parts due to higher temps and flooding in other due to higher levels of evapoartive moisture in the atmpsphere. How these are distributed will vary wildly based on other factor like jet stream, La nina and el nina systems, ocean currents, etc. I just don't feel he's being very honest in how he presents the data.
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PaulBardinas
Educating one person at a time.
04:46 PM on 03/19/2012
Absolutely irrelevant facts that are only trying to mislead. After all that rubbish the point that climate scientists are making is the same. The earth has warmed roughly 2°F, largely because of CO2 released from fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methane release, etc. The trend line still points up. These are all largely human activities. Current CO2 levels are the highest in 800,000 years at 390 ppm. Given the energy imbalance the earth will continue to warm and feedbacks will likely accelerate the warming. Globally the last 3 decades have been consecutively warmer and the last decade was the warmest. The Antarctic has a nice hole in the ozone layer that affects weather patterns, while the North Pole is not so lucky. Higher concentrations of CO2 there have resulted in diminished sea ice and above average warming. Facts people!!!
03:38 AM on 03/20/2012
Facts which apparantly you don't feel the need to provide any links to to prove your point.

I've plotted the trends every 2 years from 1998, only the trend from 2008 shows any warming.
http://tinyurl.com/7r7edc2

You claim that sea ice extent is diminishing:-
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

Arctic sea ice extent is clearly increasing and back in the normal range.
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DocSkull
My questions aren't rhetorical.
10:20 AM on 03/20/2012
As we've told you many time before, you want to use volume of ice to argue that it isn't melting rapidly. Ice extent is the area of water that includes 15-percent ice.

You are arguing that a pumpkin smashed on the sidewalk has gained mass because it is spread out over a larger area.
02:44 PM on 03/19/2012
Huh? All while CO2 has been increasing linearly for the last 15 years.

I guess we can take this as proof that CO2 isn't all that bad after all.

I guess it's time for those lazy alarmist scientists to actually do some real science (i.e. WORK) and figure out what is really happening with our climate.

Could it be the trillions of tons of water that we pump out of the ground every year? Could THAT have an impact on climate?

Naaahhhh. Trillions of tons of water vapor can't possibly do anything to our climate. It has to be a trace, insignificant gas called CO2 that really does nothing other than allow bloated politicians to scream about raising our taxes.

Yup. CO2. The devil gas.
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Wanderland
Generic white guy
04:31 PM on 03/19/2012
The thermal properties of CO2 are well known, and not in question, except in your mind.

Try getting your science from scientists and not shills for the fossil fuels industry.
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06:04 PM on 03/19/2012
Yep 1.2C for doubling of CO2 levels from pre-industrial level of 280ppm. That would take 300+ years to warm the planet by 1C. The 0.2C per decade alarm call from climate quacks is based on a mythological feedback effect.
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PaulBardinas
Educating one person at a time.
04:54 PM on 03/19/2012
Nonsense. The fact that CO2 has increased linearly, but that warming hasn't is not proof of anything. The warming trend has followed the increase in CO2. Hundreds of other factors do and will continue to impact average global temperatures. Obviously, since CO2 is not the only factor in temperature it is absurd to suggest a direct linear correlation must exist. Learn some science. As we start to see feedbacks of methane release and less relective ice surfaces it is likely that you will actually start to see the warming actually get ahead of the CO2. Facts!!
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03:46 AM on 03/20/2012
Plenty of climate quacks have tried to suggest a correlation between global temperature and CO2 emissions. I remember challenging Peter Gleick in a Forbes article shortly before he was defrocked when he curve fitted a line without providing an R-value to supposedly prove such a correlation.

This is why you can't trust climate quacks, their story shifts dependent on what they want to persuade a gullible audience.
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baxtron
tek phlarpt
01:40 PM on 03/19/2012
No matter what we think of the individual statistics, it's clear that February was a month of extremes.

Being the coolest out of a collection of hot weather years doesn't mean it is cold. Thanks for the attempt at relativism HP.

Did you know it was a lot colder than in 1998? Wow not we have both sides of the story it's getting cooler.

LMFAO!!!
02:37 PM on 03/19/2012
Defining something as hot or cold is entirely subjective. It was clearly colder than 21 previous Land & Ocean temperatures in February, and 36 Land only temperatures since records began (1880 in NOAA's case). Given that the earth has been substantially warmer and colder than it is today, the statistics are somewhat meaningless, however.
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DocSkull
My questions aren't rhetorical.
03:08 PM on 03/19/2012
“Defining something as hot or cold is entirely subjective."

Not at all. In order for the course of global warming to turn cool, we would have to have a statistically significant reversal of the trend. Deniers like to pretend that a few years after a particularly warm year is cooling, but that is wrong-headed. It is like a poor poker player who confuses losing less with warming.
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AntiClast
If it ain't broke, don't break it!
11:18 AM on 03/20/2012
"The statistics are somewhat meaningless."

As is your mixed-up mush.
12:48 PM on 03/19/2012
finally an article that tells the other side of the story. we have only so many years of data from temperature of the earth and people are freaking out about the earth warming up. there is no warming trend. the climate goes in cycles. just like has been for millions of years. global warming believers try to focus on only parts of the world. thats not good science
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baxtron
tek phlarpt
01:41 PM on 03/19/2012
you're right. that's why they call it "Global" Warming, and not regional. Go back to sleep paid poster.
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Bogstomper2
Secular conservative
01:41 PM on 03/19/2012
"there is no warming trend."

This is why we call people like you deniers. It's not an insult, it's perfectly descriptive of the way you deny facts.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-land-ocean-mntp-anom/201001-201012.gif

"the climate goes in cycles. just like has been for millions of years."

Since the only information on past climates on that time scale comes from scientists, and since you don't believe scientists, you have no idea what the climate did in the past. So why are you pretending that you do?

"global warming believers try to focus on only parts of the world."

Yeah, that's why we call it "global".

"thats not good science"

No offense, but your post doesn't suggest that you're the kind of person who's qualified to judge what constitutes good science.
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Winterseeker
For the trees...we need them, not vice versa.
12:19 PM on 03/19/2012
So the temperature average is still well above the 20th century average - well that comforts me knowing we haven't slowed down on overall unstable warming of the climate, phew... -_-
I hope some good discussion comes from this, not just rants and religious feuds!

One main question I had is regarding why sea ice in the Antarctic continues to remain healthy and thick year-round while the Arctic sea ice crumbles...there are very few scientific studies on this and none of which are conclusive...any ideas on whats up with that? All I can surmise is a strengthening of the Antarctic current, but how does it still remain so stable and cold?
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Dallas Dunlap
01:59 PM on 03/19/2012
Winterseeker - The measurements from the GRACE satellite system show that Antarctica as a whole is losing ice mass overall, with loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet losing mass faster that the EastAIS. (In this case, the IPCC was too conservative. They had expected the EAIS to gain mass because of heavier precipitation.
Here's a good, if technical, discussion of GRACE's Antarctic results as of 2006: http://ecologiesurleweb.free.fr/docs/Docs_infos/Warming/2006-Science-Velicogna.pdf
Here's something a little lighter and more recent (but a little more ominous.): http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html
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Winterseeker
For the trees...we need them, not vice versa.
06:16 AM on 03/20/2012
Thank you, thats some great info!
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10:56 AM on 03/19/2012
So it was a cold year. What does the long-term trend tell us? That's what's important. One year, or even a few years in a row, is called noise.
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SallyMaclennane
Yes I did build that!
12:11 PM on 03/19/2012
Considering that the earth is 4,500,000,000 years old......130 years of data is also called noise.
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baxtron
tek phlarpt
01:42 PM on 03/19/2012
unless you track it starting in 1994, then it is sound evidence.
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02:42 PM on 03/19/2012
Well I don't really care what the balmy temperatures were like 4.5 billion years ago, since the human race didn't exist then. I care what it's like now, and in the future, for my kids. Earth existed 4.5 billion years ago, therefore humans have nothing to do with current climate change and it can't be measured? What an interesting leap of logic.

Gosh, if scientists know nothing, then how did they arrive at the 4.5 billion year age of Earth?
12:49 PM on 03/19/2012
Climate quacks don't believe in long term trends. You believe in the trends that start and end as close to the last 1978 to 1998 warming period as you can possibly get. If you believed in long term trends, you'd look at the entire global temperature record since 1850 or 1880, do you want to do that?
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qwert1234
haha, charade you are
01:09 PM on 03/19/2012
"If you believed in long term trends, you'd look at the entire global temperature record since 1850 or 1880, do you want to do that?"

That trend is positive, and the trend from 78 to present is even steeper, i.e. accelerating
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Trepasky
Sanity is neither free nor easy
01:53 PM on 03/19/2012
Skeptics hate it when you refer to their short data sets and analysis as quacks
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Wanderland
Generic white guy
10:21 AM on 03/19/2012
It took me about 10 minutes to decipher the statistics tossed about in this column.

The combined land and sea temperatures made this the coolest February since 2008 (ancient times!), but looking at the land temperatures alone, it was the coolest February since 1994.

These bits of data will undoubtedly fuel some important climate change debate. I can hardly wait.
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DocSkull
My questions aren't rhetorical.
03:25 PM on 03/19/2012
I'm not sure why we care about the February land temperatures, but it hardly matters since the article about short-term temperatures became a platform for deniers to attack the global, long-term pattern.
06:27 AM on 03/19/2012
February has come and gone. Deviations above normal have been much more dramatic in March then Feb. in the town where I reside. Eastern Redbuds are blooming over two weeks earlier than in 2001

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/elkin-nc/28621/february-weather/2228276

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/elkin-nc/28621/march-weather/2228276

Temps are running well above average for the month of March in Berlin Germany.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/de/berlin/23823/february-weather/1034548?monyr=2/1/2012

http://www.accuweather.com/en/de/berlin/23823/march-weather/1034548?monyr=3/1/2012
06:46 AM on 03/19/2012
You wouldn't be using short term trends in small geographical areas as the basis of evidence for global warming, would you? I regularly get my wrists slapped by climate quacks for pointing out that neither the UK nor the US have warmed significantly since temperature records began, regularly being told that both countries are only a small proportion of the world. At least I'm using the entire temperature record and not just a few days for the basis of my argument against the AGW myth.
07:28 AM on 03/19/2012
"You wouldn't be using short term trends in small geographical areas as the basis of evidence for global warming, would you?"

I did not make an argument in support of or against global warming. I am suggesting that March temp. averages may be elevated.
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chrisd3
Excelsior!
08:13 AM on 03/19/2012
"You wouldn't be using short term trends in small geographical areas as the basis of evidence for global warming, would you"

You mean, like you do with the polar ice sheets below?
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worker beenumbed
09:37 PM on 03/18/2012
Sulfur emissions reflect the sun's radiation.The China has increased their use of coal without scrubbing the sulfur.The Guardian states this has been short term cooling influence on the planet.The sulfer comes down as it did in the USA when scrubbers were installed. .
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10:41 AM on 03/19/2012
And it has a Much shorter lifespan in the atmosphere than does CO2. Some people have suggested geoengineering as a solution to the problem, if it weren't for that pesky atmospheric lifetime problem.
12:51 PM on 03/19/2012
That's broken the hypothesis that it's sulfur emission in China that are to blame for the lack of warming over the last 14 years then, neither is it ENSO events (lasts months not years), the solar lull (2002 to 2009) or volcanoes (last major one 1991). I think your running out of ideas.