A continuation of the intense drought in the southern Plains, wet and cool weather in the Pacific Northwest, and the potential for more temperature extremes were some of the highlights of the just-released official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) winter forecast.
One of the major contributing factors to the forecast is the expected continuation and intensification of La Nina, which was noted in NOAA's preliminary winter forecast a couple of months ago and was also highlighted in the winter forecasts of other outlets.
The specific forecast details for December through February include the likelihood of:
The seemingly non-committal forecast for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic region, according to NOAA, was made because of other factors, such as the presence of the Arctic Oscillation, which can usually only be pinpointed a week or two in advance and trump any influences of La Nina.
A negative phase of the oscillation typically results in extreme cold in the Midwest, Northeast, mid-Atlantic region, and even the Deep South. This has occurred at times during each of the past two winters, and if it happens again this winter, it would mean more extreme cold and intense snow storms, especially in the Midwest and Northeast.
NOAA calls the Arctic Oscillation the "wild card" of the winter forecast, and it will ultimately have a tremendous effect on the weather for millions of Americans.
NOAA's seasonal forecast does not include specific predictions related to the amount of snowfall. The forecast highlights the areas where precipitation (rain, snow, and ice) are expected to be greater or less than average for that region. It also highlights areas where there are equal chances of above or below average precipitation.
The temperature forecast highlights areas where seasonal temperatures are expected to be above or below average, along with areas having equal chances of either.
it could get wild.
So sorry...but that's simply not true.
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Super User Super Smart
it call for heavier precipitation in the east- be it rain or snow.
The earth is a closed system like a box. It has fixed inputs that do not vary much over time and fixed outputs that do not very over time. Those inputs and outputs have not changed much in the last thousand years. The earth maintains it’s temperature zones and climate by flows that move heat by way of wind and water on a continuous basis (the Japanese Current and Gulf Stream for example).
Now the earth has increasing levels of CO2 gas. This causes more heat to be in the system due to reflectivity changes in radiation coming in to the earth. THE EARTH IS A CLOSED SYSTEM. So how does the earth react then it wants to increase the flows that maintain the temperature zones. This means more water flowing into the rivers that feed the currents (in this case the Gulf Stream). Increasing the water flow decreases the salinity of the flow.
Quite simply the earth wants to get back to a time when the heat balance was better say 1955 when Elvis sang in Denver. So Mama Nature creates bigger el ninos and el ninas creating more rain storms that feed the rivers which feed the currents. So you are looking at more hurricanes, more snow, and more thunder storms and more floods.
Because the Earth is not a closed loop system!