2011-2012 Winter Forecasts

I'm a meteorologist, but I'm no long-range weather forecasting expert, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at some of the early prognostications for the 2011-2012 winter from sources that specialize in long-range forecasting.

I'll highlight three forecasts today, and I expect that I'll have more forecasts to highlight in the future. I've included a few highlights from each, with links to the complete forecast information.

NOAA
The Climate Prediction Center is the division of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) that issues the official long-range government forecasts, and the official winter forecast will be released in October.

NOAA did, however, issue initial thoughts about the upcoming winter, based largely on the return of La Nina. A La Nina is a cooling of sea-surface temperatures in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean, and it influences global weather patterns. There was a La Nina last year as well, but it's not expected that this winter's La Nina will be quite as intense as last winter's.

The early-season forecast emphasizes the likelihood of a continuation of the dry weather pattern in the Southwest and southern Plains, a region devastated by a multi-billion-dollar drought.

Farmers' Almanac

The Farmers' Almanac warns us to get ready for a wet, wild winter in 2012.

Highlights include:

• Very stormy and wet conditions in the mid-Atlantic region and southern New England


• Very snowy conditions in the Midwest, northern New England, and upstate New York


• Very wet conditions in the southern Plains and Southeast (which would be great news because of the ongoing drought)


• Very cold in the northern Plains


• Dry in the Southwest

I'm not saying that the forecast lacks validity, but since the forecast does not include the reasoning behind the forecast, it's hard to have any opinion about its possible accuracy.

The Weather Centre
You may never had heard of the Weather Centre (neither did I before I started to research this article), but when I found out that they've been providing quality forecasts for the United States since April 26, 2010, I knew I had to include them!

Sarcasm aside, I wanted to include their forecast since the forecast information was just released (Weather Centre Winter Forecast), and the forecast is accompanied by a detailed explanation of the reasoning behind their forecast. It's clear that a significant amount of meteorology is behind the forecast.

Two of the factors mentioned are the La Nina, but rather than a broad-brushed La Nina forecast, the forecast was also based on the specific position of the La Nina, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and past winter seasons with similar climatological factors.

I'm not saying the forecast is right, but the reasoning behind the forecast seems sound.

Highlights include:

• Above-average snowfall in mid-Atlantic region, Northeast, Midwest, and eastern Plains


• A continuation of the drought in much of the southern U.S.


• More precipitation than normal along the West Coast


• Colder-than-normal conditions across much of the northern tier of the country, including bitterly cold conditions in the northern Plains.

 

 

 

Comments

[snownut56]

03:58 PM on 09/27/2011

Metorologists,have a hard time forecasting the daily weather correctly. All we can do is just wait & see for ourselves what this winter season for 2011-2012 has in store for the United States! Winter Seaons vary from year to year this could be the seaon for less severity nationwide! Afterall long range weather forecasting is just a crap chute a true gamble! No panic is necessary in this stage of the game were all tough americans we'll face & tackle this coming winter head on like iron bronco linebackers!! Take care My Friends Be Brave! Cowboy Steve

[greyhound2]

08:46 AM on 09/27/2011

Maybe it might rain or snow, or maybe it might be clear and dry.

[MissFrijole]

08:13 AM on 09/27/2011

So...basically...it's the same as every other winter, plus or minus a few inches of rain and snow. Ok...well...I already have my snow shovel, so I'm ready!

[dangerousdaneerfan]

11:40 PM on 09/26/2011

Newsflash!!! It snows in the winter and it is very cold in the winter.

[captnEarl]

09:53 AM on 09/27/2011

Go eers

[sandhillsrider]

11:13 PM on 09/26/2011

I can tell you first hand as a food plot grower, Georgia needs rain in a big way!

[T Q]

09:01 PM on 09/26/2011

ZOMG! The 'North American Oscillation?'
There is no such animal!

Doesn't lend much confidence to THAT outlook.

[bolivare]

06:30 AM on 09/27/2011

You might want to do at least the minimal in research because, right now, you do look silly.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

[snownut56]

04:15 PM on 09/27/2011

I agree with you bolivare.

[Mister President]

08:51 PM on 09/26/2011

Given that this will be my first winter in California after ten years in Chicago, man I can't wait.

[snownut56]

04:17 PM on 09/27/2011

Enjoy your winter in CA. Mr. President have a good one!

[aacme]

08:13 PM on 09/26/2011

The Farmer's Almanac forecast, based on who knows what, width of the bands on caterpillars' backs and similar things, I think, seems to be almost exactly the same as the Weather Center's, with a "significant amount of meteorology behind it."
When I lived in Vermont 40 years ago, we depended on the Almanac a lot more than weather forecasters, though I'm sure meteorology has improved a lot since then. It would have to if their forecast is the same as the Almanac's. Unless the Weather Center just invested their 6 bucks and bought a copy.

[William50]

08:03 PM on 09/26/2011

Given that the weather patterns are different from twenty years ago. But are they different from a thousand years ago. I would like to see in writing about this the weather patterns as know for Europe, say a thousand years of snow, cold, rain, heat and then look to see if we are in a similar pattern or something outside any range that has been recorded.
I would suggest that the little Ice Age, approximately three hundred years, if we had had the scope of information then as now would have been carried out to extremes, but then the weather changed.

[CollectiveNotIndividual]

08:42 PM on 09/26/2011

Please be silent !! We need to use these short term weather pattern changes as a excuse to increase the power of the government. To transfer power from the individual to the state. To contorl the people. The enhance the collective. Don't waste your energy trying to determine if weather patterns are actually changing...just use it as an excuse to achieve our ultimate goal.

[Mister President]

08:53 PM on 09/26/2011

"Please be silent !!"

Do us all a favor and take your own advice, bagger.

[Felix99]

10:19 PM on 09/26/2011

Good idea, William!! I wonder if anyone is doing this???

[simonsez2]

05:46 PM on 09/26/2011

brrrrr.

Get out there and drive those SUV's ... warm it up for us.