America's Pollsters: I'm Standing By to Take Your Call

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Posted April 14, 2008 | 11:10 AM (EST)



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I'm starting to feel inadequate. Across the decades since I have been eligible to vote, I have not received one single phone call asking me how I plan to vote.

So I did a mass mailing from my e-mail address file including friends, relatives, people I barely know and people I used to know, but now have no idea who I am. And I asked them: Has any political pollster ever asked you about which candidate you plan to support?

And so far I have not found one single person who has ever been contacted by a pollster. You would think that over the decades a random sample somewhere, sometime, would have touched someone I know. Not yet, maybe not ever!

Maybe you just have to get on more lists. I wonder if I should start entering Publishers Clearing House. Or maybe I'll start voting on American Idol. There's an informed electorate for you.

I do believe, however, that the people pollsters pick are out there somewhere. But then I also believed there were WMD in Iraq and that rehab would get Lindsay Lohan to stop downing Jaeger shots.

Faith, after all, is the belief in things unseen. But recent events have badly shaken my faith in those unseen opinion givers who have determinedly shunned me -- and everybody else I know.

One primetime belief-rattler is the curious case of Mark Penn, who somehow thought that it made sense to earn one pay check from Hillary Clinton for gauging voter distrust about trade agreements while he earned a different paycheck lobbying on behalf of Colombia for a trade agreement. Even by today's bizarre political standards, Penn is one strange bedfellow.

This primary season has been especially interesting. For instance, I would love to do a Drexler Poll of the people polled in New Hampshire. The poll results that started with Barack Obama bopping around the stage like a high school kid who just got a hot prom date were supposed to presage a vote that would spell Hillary's final demise. Instead, with a few well-timed sniffles, Hillary turned a negative into a positive and lived to fight another day.

As I listened to the media's post- New Hampshire excuse-fest, I thought of something Winston Churchill said a long time ago: "Politics is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month and next year; and to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen."

In my personal Drexler Poll of people polled, I would pin them down: When the pollster interrupted your evening "did you say one thing, and then change your mind? Or did you lie just for fun? If you did lie, were you messing with a system that allows one of the smallest, whitest states in the union to knock people out of the race?"

Being a pollster, I imagine, is not an easy job -- not with absentee ballots, swing-inducing low primary turnouts, and a surly, abused electorate that on any given day is trying to figure out who scares them the least.

And, of course, people tend to say what they feel and not what they'll do -- as brutally honest pollsters have known for a long, long time.

I'm sure that 80 percent of those surveyed would say they would pay $50 to watch Ann Coulter fight a big mean dog on television. But in this economy, most people would probably not go higher than $20.

But then again, being a pollster is a great job. Like weather forecasters and other dreamy futurists, you never have to be right. You just have to say something. For weather forecasters, tomorrow is another day. And the futurists, well, they'll be dead by the time we learn we're not going to have flying cars.

So, next up is Pennsylvania, Indiana and then North Carolina. I don't live in any of those places, so I don't expect a call.

But to all the pollsters who want to give us a guide to results of the general election campaign 20 minutes after it starts, I just want you to know: Like the fella in Irving Berlin's song, "I'll be all alone by my telephone ... waiting for ring, a ting-a-ling." And within a five point-margin of error, I promise to tell you the truth.

 
 

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They only ask me for money not who I am voting for?

I tell them if they get a check I support them, if not well maybe next time.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:11 AM on 04/15/2008

Haaaa. Yes, yes, why is it that myself and no one i know, and no one they know, has ever been polled. Is polling just a bunch of b.s.? teehee

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:25 AM on 04/15/2008

... surly, abused electorate that on any given day is trying to figure out who scares them the least.

Perfect description!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:43 PM on 04/14/2008

Same here. I've been voting since '78 and have never been polled for any presidential race, and hardly anything else, either.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:17 PM on 04/14/2008

Why the polls are so horribly wrong this cycle:

20somethings have been registering and participating in primaries in caucuses in numbers that in most cases double all previous records.

20somethings are more likely than not to have a cellphone but no landline. Pollsters aren't allowed to call cellphones, only landlines. So most of those new 20something voters aren't being polled.

Pollsters poll 'likely voters'. A likely voter is someone who voted in the last presidential election or two. Once again, the record numbers of newly minted voters (thank you Obama campaign) are not being polled.

Here is a visual representation of the results: http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080414_margin_of_error/

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:07 PM on 04/14/2008

Phone polls drive the sales of caller i.d. services & hardware, answering services &/or hardware, cause people to mute their phone's ring so it can't be heard, unplug their phone or cancel phone service. Learning to say I don't speak English in several obscure languages is a good way to get rid of phone pollsters. Having an unlisted & unpublished # doesn't work since phone pests use automatic dialing devices to make robo calls. You will long for the days when pollsters didn't call you when you're deluged with robo calls from pollsters & others who use the phone to solicit,
You may not remember but HP had posted an anti-polling pledge a few months ago. A lot of us signed it.
l lynch

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:47 PM on 04/14/2008

Well, Peggy, be glad. I only answered one telly poll in the '80s about Ronald Reagan. I could tell the questions had been framed by the Republicans to elicit the response they wanted to get and often I felt that what I wanted to say really was not an option in the proffered suggested responses. So, when this time of year rolls around, we leave on phone on recording 24/7 and don't answer. But I have to tell you that it's ringing and ringing these days.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:08 PM on 04/14/2008

Move to Iowa. The political season is only off about one year out of four, these days. You will soon be unhooking your phone half the evening like most Iowans. During the caucus run-up, my husband and I got upwards of ten calls a day from politicos and media. We were very popular.

Your book (I'm looking at the ad next door to this) looks great!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:40 PM on 04/14/2008

"But recent events have badly shaken my faith in those unseen opinion givers who have
determinedly shunned me "

Let me essentialize your comments without loss of content: "I don't understand polling."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:36 PM on 04/14/2008
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