Another "Benefit" From $200 Oil...

There was a fair amount of reaction to my last blog about the potential benefits of $200 oil. Most of the negativity centered around the fact that many, many folks (truckers, etc) would clearly be devastated by the hardship this would bring were it to come to pass. I get that. In fact, my optimistic side really hopes it doesn't come to pass. But, my realistic side expects it will...

Regardless of exactly how high the cost per barrel goes however, there will be some good news - in addition to the obvious bad news - I hope. This morning I was heartened to hear on NPR that even at current gas prices there is a boom in people using public transportation. I'm not saying all those folks are happy to be using public transportation. But, when I think about the world as a whole, this is good news.

As someone who has lived and worked literally all over the world - and who lived by using public transportation for years while living and working in both Singapore and London - I have always been frustrated by America's pathetic transportation infrastructure. Our roads are poorly made. Our bridges are collapsing. And, my personal preferred mode of transportation - trains - are virtually nonexistent outside of a few major cities. There is simply no excuse for this in my mind.

I get that we are a big country. I get that there are vast distances to cover and huge costs to upgrading everything. But, I also get that compared to European standards our historically "cheap" gas has provided no incentive to build commuter or long haul rail services that really work.

So, in addition to an explosion of remote working, as my second hope for a potential benefit of $200 oil, I hope that we get much better public transportation for all Americans - and that we choose to use it!

Comments

[bgregs]

So we're all supposed to use public transit? That's fine, I'll use it as soon as it becomes reasonable to do so. I live in a suburb of Chicago, and I work on the south side of Chicago (since I can't afford housing closer to where I work). It takes me around half an hour to get to work, and about 2/3 of a gallon of gas. Therefore I'm looking at around 1 and 1/3 of a gallon each day, and around an hour of time. At $4/gallon, this means that each day I'm spending around $5.33 for one hour of driving.

Public transit, by contrast, would cost me more than $10 for the same trip. I'd still be willing to use the system, except that it would take me more than 2 hours EACH WAY. Further, I would have to beg my boss to change my schedule so that I could match up with existing transit schedules.

So I can drive to and from work for one hour and $5.33, or I can ride to and from work for more than $10 and more than FOUR hours.

I'm not saying that I wouldn't consider public transit, but we need to fix the system that we have in America!

[veracitatus]

Hang in there Perry. You are right in this way of thinking. The people who are complaining (except the poor) are those who are pissed off that they can't afford that next iPod or go to the big NASCAR race since they have to pay so much for gas for their SUV.

I do feel for truckers but they are going to have to find a way to pass on cost increases to customers. We should all be sharing in paying for the advantage of eating tomatoes in mid January.

The first commenter here apparently isn't familiar with peak oil. Try visiting http://www.theoildrum.com/ to see what is really causing this cost run up in gasoline. Stop trying to find someone else to blame. You are the one who used all that past oil for the frivolous privilege of having all that stuff. If you want someone to blame, look in a mirror.

V

[StoneSoupStation]

Don't let Peak Oil fool ya - check out Greg Palast's discussion of this whole issue, then take a gander at the new find in Brazil. Peak oil isn't what's behind this runup, Republican oilmen with ties to the Saudis are....

[veracitatus]

Peak oil hasn't "fooled" me. I don't get my understanding of the issue from news and commentary. Rather I go to more informed, scientific sources. The link I provided points to some of those. The "find" in Brazil has yet to be proven both in size and recoverability. Remember the Jack 2 find in the Gulf that was supposed to solve all our import problems? Hear much about it anymore? There is a reason.

As I said, everyone would like to find some convenient "other" to blame for oil prices. Sure speculators, manipulators, etc. can account for small pieces of the run up. But the basis for the level of the run up is the flat production in most oil fields and slowing production in the North Sea, Mexico, Russia, and others. Republicans may be dumb on the whole - they brought us GWB - but they can't be all making money from oil stocks. Besides, any gains from oil investments are going to be offset by the inflation caused in all other sectors. Republicans may be accused of being selfish, greedy bastards, but they're not so stupid as to shoot themselves in the foot. The correlation between oil prices and economic downturn is well established. Even the oil men know this.

V.

[wldnswmmr]

The USA used to have the finest railroad system in the world. Sometimes gets forgotten. More total miles of track, more track per square mile, more miles per capita than anywhere else. The country's wealth was built on railroads. The rights of way are mostly still there, we just can't get the govt. to invest the money to restore the system. Too busy bringing democracy to the Middle East to bother. Couldn't agree more about the state of the nation's roads. To drive on the autobahn, for example, is to appreciate what real engineering is. In fact, most roads in Europe are like that. Concrete, smooth and engineered for turns. The asphalt crud we build here breaks down under all the traffic. We bet everything on the sustainability of the single person car mode, and it was a bad wager. Probably what will be necessary soon is gas rationing and subsidies to allow truckers to move goods. We can't let the supply lines break down or we won't have food in the stores. Supermarkets typically carry a 3 day supply. What happens on Day 4?

[seawolf77]

Baloney. The powers that be created this country, and it just goes to show that maybe the powers that be never should have been. America's rail system would make Bulgaria proud. Our air transportation system is for the cows. When you look at America today, it's like the movie The Devil's Advocate, you see only monsters and devils. How did this happen. Leadership. $200 oil is just the beginning. Imagine the whole world grinding to a halt, and then every country erecting barriers to entry. Every time I see 4 gallons of water go down the drain I think that one day soon people will kill for just a cup of the stuff.