Will the Euro, and Europe, survive? In one predominant scenario the answer hinges on Greece. The image of a Europe without Greece is being sharply tuned to produce world-wide anxieties. What actually happens in the coming years, however, may depend on which of the key actors are able to abandon this view.
We normally think of fear as a problem. In politics, however, as anxiety shapes beliefs and motivates actions, it presents opportunities. That is why opinion-makers have correctly identified the possibility of a Greek exit as a source of power. It seems like the ultimate threat and bargaining chip.
But who actually holds this power? The Germans have used it as a big flag to rally public opinion against the corrupt and spendthrift Greeks, and as a big stick to extort concessions from them. "Pay your bills!" and "keep your promises!" or "you shall be cast out!"
There is some sleight-of-hand in this, but how many people see it? The treaties bringing Europe together have no provision for such a power. No member can be expelled by Europe, and certainly not by the Germans alone. As a matter of institutional design this is an amazing oversight of the sort common to many critical moments in history.
Obviously the Germans are not powerless. They have set the terms for restructuring the Greek economy. They did this directly, in negotiations, and through their influence within the policy-making institutions of the "troika." And the Germans have the cash. A decision to cut off financial resources would further limit policy options for the Greek state, starve Greek society, and accelerate flight from Greek bonds. This is not a game.
Yet, there are new specters haunting all of Europe -- the Germans included. Global financial speculation is hunting new prey and will eventually touch everyone. The political unity necessary to make Europe a world power for another century is at risk. As Greek departure threatens to incite the vultures and to extinguish that dream, a tremendous leverage is linked to exit. In this moment that specific power accrues to the Greeks. Does that make it their best option?
The symbol of this power is the self-image of a David Greece striking down a German Goliath. As personal hardship and frustration grow around Greece a popular reaction against austerity gains ground. The shockingly corrupt mainstream politicians of the last thirty years -- conservative New Democracy and the Socialists -- have been hung out to dry in this week's election, down 14 percent and 30 percent respectively.
To almost everyone outside of Greece and many inside, the crisis seems to have come to a head in just these stark terms: Germans with their stick and Greeks with their lever. Few have noticed that both threats amount to the same thing. Mutual suicide is not a solution. This is a stand-off where no one wants, and everyone will suffer from, the apparently inevitable result.
In such situations, possibilities for new or unforeseen powers emerge from agenda-setting imagination and authentic public leadership. The chance to seize this new and productive power, or more precisely the chance to create it, will not derive from the leverage of exit. That chance must instead be channeled through a political position grounded in loyalty to Europe.
Whoever next governs in Athens will have to address himself to Greeks but speak at the same time to the other member states and half a billion fellow citizens, declaring that "Greece will never leave Europe; we commit ourselves this way for the sake of Europe because we are Europeans."
Can this happen? Is it credible? The answer today depends on political will, skill, and intelligence, and these are in perilously short supply. The clock is ticking and two especially obdurate obstacles stand in the way.
Nothing will happen if the leader of a new Greek government does not confront the Germans, which is to say confront the myth of German power diffused day-in and day-out by the global media, and consolidate the Greeks, which is to say consolidate the self-image of Greek democracy and its significance for life in Greece and the future of Europe. At this juncture these amount to the same thing. A single declaration will suffice: "Germany! You cannot decide who will be European and who will not; Greece! The power to refashion Europe is in our hands if we maintain our place in Europe."
Since the crisis began, Greece has largely been compelled to fend for itself against a Franco-German alignment in favor of austerity. By another operation of chance, on the very day that the Greek political landscape was blown apart and a minuscule and treacherous path forward cracked open, that alignment may have suffered a fatal blow. Many believe that the election of Francois Hollande will turn the debate on European policy from austerity towards a politics of growth. Despite Hollande's refusal to meet with Alexis Tsipras (leader of a surging Left coalition untainted by corruption), this could make France some kind of ally for Greece against the harshest of German demands.
This will surely appear to many Greeks as a ray of light. But the fact is that it constitutes the second looming obstacle. For the real issue in Greece today is not between austerity and growth. It is between two kinds of austerity.
With an exit from Europe that austerity might be partially alleviated in the long-run by a return of the drachma. But -- as the precipitous advance of the criminal fascist party Golden Dawn suggests -- it could also involve the collapse of republican government.
For a Greece that remains within Europe, austerity will certainly be a brutal affair. But at least the country would continue to be buffered by partnership in the Article 2 European commitments to freedom, democracy, and the rule of law.
Moreover, by vociferously rebuffing the Germans with a refusal to leave the Greeks could win what, in this terrible situation, is the best they can hope for: a real chance to renegotiate the terms of the "memorandum" and to take back their country from the crooks. Whoever shall instill a program like this in the hearts of the Greeks and the brains of the Germans, his name will be known for centuries to come.
Richard Brodsky: The Greek Slap and Resurgent Nazism in Europe
Lex Paulson: Applied Classics: François Hollande and the Socialists of Golden-Age Athens
No doubt, Greece has a long way to go. Deep social, political, and economic changes are required. The same applies to Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and a host of other EU and aspiring-EU members. The Germans and the Industrial North members of the EU know and have known this. How are they managing this change? Certainly, if the effort to manage change throughout the EU is genuine, it is failing miserably. Perhaps, it is a genuine failure in change management. More likely, however, it is a case of half-in.
Greece was the first to recognize the incongruence and failures of the EU and sound the alarm. The Germans and the EU “responded” begrudgingly, slowly, and with vengeance!
It cost George Papandreou his Prime Minister ship. Quite fittingly, at the first voting opportunity, the harried and unflappable Greeks that coined the term “Europa”, responded with yet, another, monumental, Epic, “OXI”! The Greek rejection (heard around the world), provides hope for Southern European peoples toiling under the harsh, hasty, lash of the EU's experiment in globalization and austerity.
The ball is in the EU’s Northern leadership court. Is there a “Solon” to be found? The world is anxiously awaiting the results of this executive search!
What is the degree of German commitment to the EU? Is it we are all in, or, is it, we are in, provided we can dominate, profiteer, and keep an option to go at it alone, successfully, at any point in time in the future? Were the Germans hedging their bet from the very start? After all, they were keenly aware of the underdevelopment and needs of the Agrarian South versus those of the Industrial North. The Germans also realize, I am sure, when faced with a similar unionization experiment, the United States, went through a painful Civil War and 100 years of subsidized reconstruction under an already clearly defined Federal Model, to evolve into an (arguably!) effective, and responsive economic, political, and social "union". What, then, is behind the Germans borrowing at 1% and lending the poor Greeks at 4%? Is it bailing out, or, simply a case of wanting to have your cake and eat it too? Are the Germans behaving like partners, or, profiteers?
What is "Europe"? If "Europe" is the European Union, what are its mission and objectives? If its mission and objectives are to foster economic cooperation and self-determination as an entity, what are the tools and mechanisms to accomplish this?
Fact is, the EU, as an entity, is operationally flawed. Perhaps, this was no accident, or, oversight. The absence of the organizational decision-making structure and legitimized operational structures to respond quickly to real-time economic demands of today's digitized market demands is being amply demonstrated during this European national debt crisis. Facts is, ancient Athenian models notwithstanding, the case for the Federal model, as opposed to a loose, ill-defined, "Union", is being glaringly proven as the most effective "democratic" model of cooperation that the world has witnessed in the last 2000 years!
As world cooperative models of governing peoples move from the 19th and 20th century ethnic-centered, national entities (with their respective demands of horse and carriage, "pony express", and telegraph economies), to the models required to effectively govern peoples of multiple national entities in the digitized. Laser Era, it becomes increasingly clear that the Federal Model is the way to go for Europe.
Much of history is made by people who do not "belong" where they are, and many decisions, political and otherwise, are stupid (from the perspective of the moment or after). But these are questions, topics, or name-calling that occur within politics, not from outside or above it. The issue for politics is what is on the table right now and where can the imagination of actors be pointed. It is a matter of powers. From within the complex fabric of powers in this situation I bring to the foreground two that belong now to Greece. To go or to stay. Very little has been said about the latter as a form of power. It is that topic that I intended to introduce into the discussion. There are too many and various ramifications if Greece refuses to leave to say at this point whether it would be "best for Greece and the EU."
And if you look at what the Greek government (over the past two years) promised at various summits and did actually do ... there are a lot broken promises. Some were broken because their plans/ proposals were over ambitious. But with others they clearly lacked any ambition or will to enact them. I am talking about opening up some professions (which are open professions everywhere else in Europe, like logistics/ truck driving). They promised to reduce the number of public servants ... not much happened there either. And I am not absolutely not talking about teachers, nurses or policemen. But tell me, why need 11 million Greeks an army of almost the same size as 80 million Germans do? How comes (one of the reports lately) that only now, after more than two years the Greek tax authorities (oddly enough at a time they were searching for a few more millions in their budget) figured up they have been (since several years!) paying pensions for people deceased?
What about the inefficient tax authority in Greece? Or a land registry authority (which would clearly help foreign companies to invest if land ownership is without doubt)? Wouldn't you say more than two years into this we should at least see some notable improvement?
I absolutely agree that much of the burden was placed unfairly. I also concede that here and there Germany (and the others) could be more helpful. Also, it's understandable that usually Germany gets into the focus, although clearly the Dutch, Finish, Austrian, Luxembourgian, etc. governments are on the same page because Germany is the largest EU/EZ economy. But one should not forget that these other countries, even if Germany agrees into something, still can oppose it - maybe even for very justified reasons.
people are overcoming their fear of the unknown - greece will leave the common currency, reinstate their own national currency which will be allowed to deflate...the country will suffer - but a mechanism will be in place to allow the greek government to reassume control over the economy.
the real question is - which government - which politicians - along with the currency change there needs to be a complete transformation of the 'mindset' of the modern greek - who has been enabled by the system to cut corners and steal and cheat on taxes etc...only because the politicians in government steal on a grand scale. in effect, these crumbs have made everyone complicit in a system that is broken.
the hope then is that this tsunami of crisis can engender a transformation in peoples' lives and values. i
the alternative of a german gautleiter or proconsul running greece is just not acceptable.
Germany has benefitted financially from the euro while smaller economies such as Greece suffered disproportionally during the global economic crisis.
Greece was vilified mercilessly and unfairly. Greeks work longer hours, take fewer vacation days than Germans, and actually retire later in life than most of their European counterparts. I wish more journalists would point this out, as it seems scapegoating this very small country has become a global pastime. Why reckon with the staggering greed and power of banking giants when we can point fingers at Greek fishermen retiring early?
Greece is the canary in the coal mine, but recognizing its power to control its own destiny would be wise right now, before the country collapses under the weight of international and internal pressure.
It makes no sense for countries NOT in those categories to be part of the Euro ( ROMANIA uses the Euro - it's a joke ).
Go back to your old currencies and get your act together and make them more attractive for guys like me to go settle there and help yous out.
The Euro IS A LUXURY YOU CAN NOT AFFORD, not with the problems you're having.
In the long term there is no doubt that not using the Euro would be an advantage to the smaller countries.
Seems to me I've heard that before....