The Senate Judiciary Committee vs George Bush in Front of the Roberts Supreme Court: My Bookie's Odds.

05/25/2011 12:10 pm ET
  • Peter Smith Author, 'A Porch Sofa Almanac' and 'A Cavalcade of Lesser Horrors'

I called my bookie this morning to get the odds on BushCo vs Leahy et al when the titans clash in front of John Roberts' funhouse mirror of a Supreme Court. My bookie said this is going to be big.

He thought if we put it on pay per view and put it on the sports books in Vegas and Atlantic City, we could use the handle to offset the Bush tax cuts and generate the kind of surpluses the Bush crowd inherited when they came to Washington in the first place.

He had the odds the Supreme Court will do the right thing and make the White House surrender the documents at 6-3 against. He figured Roberts and Alito -- that's two. And Scalia and Thomas (he calls them "Scalomas -- the Siamese Twins of jurisprudence"). That's four -- all a lock to side with Bush.

He said you've got to assume the White House will send some Federalist Society mouthpiece to court. The mouthpiece will flash some signs to the Federalist Society justices on the bench and snag a couple more votes. Boom. Executive privilege (wink), which seemed so unimportant when Clinton was in the White House (wink-wink), will suddenly become a matter of vital national importance again.

At least that's how my bookie broke down the opening action. But where the odds go from there "depends" according to him.

Will Republican senators up for reelection relinquish their lip-locks on the administration's derriere in this matter? Have the six-plus years since Bush vs Gore stimulated any pangs of conscience in one or more of the majority justices who installed this gang in the White House? Will the press bother to cover the story?

I could hear my bookie shrug over the phone. Who knows?

You can't gamble on politics. You can only make bets like this in theory. So the theoretical proposition is opening at 6-3 against.

Any takers?