The Mystery of the Missing Alaskan Votes

by Kristin Jones, ProPublica

"There's nothing fishy going on in the state of Alaska," Gail Fenumiai, director of the Alaska Division of Elections, tells us.

Since last week she has been fending off suggestions that the unusually low voter turnout and skewed poll predictions in the state signify some official wickedness or ineptitude.

While 313,592 registered voters showed up for the 2004 presidential election, early counts this year put the turnout at 224,057. Fenumiai notes that tens of thousands of absentee and early votes have yet to be tallied. (States often take a week or two to finish counting absentee and provisional votes and certify elections. As of yesterday, officials were also still tallying results in Missouri, Georgia, California, Ohio and Virginia.)

More results from those votes will be posted on Wednesday. Fenumiai expects that turnout will reach around 61 percent of registered voters by the November 19 deadline. But that’s still lower than the 66 percent of 2004.

And this, notes the Anchorage Daily News, came on the heels of huge turnout in the Republican and Democratic caucuses, a gigantic Obama-driven registration campaign, a hometown favorite on the Republican presidential ticket and an incumbent felon in the Senate race.

Adding to the mystery of the missing Alaskan voters, there was the fact that the poll predictions were wrong.

On his number-crunching blog FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver noted that three polls conducted after the conviction of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) on corruption charges placed him at a considerable disadvantage to his Democratic challenger Mark Begich. But by at least the counts so far, Stevens was ahead by nearly 3,300 votes. Likewise, Ethan Berkowitz had a sizable lead over incumbent Rep. Don Young (R-AK), who is under investigation for ties to the same oil company at the heart of the Stevens conviction. But Young won.

The numbers have left some deeply suspicious. "I'm wondering if someone stole the body and blood of this election," one writer put it on a widely linked Huffington Post piece (with plenty of exclamation points). "Where are the votes? Something stinks at the Alaska Division of Elections." 

But the Democratic Party of Alaska stops short of calling it theft.

"I don’t really buy into any of the conspiracy theories or anything like that," says Bethany Lesser, spokesperson for the state party. "But people in Alaska weren't energized the way the people in the rest of the U.S. were."

Lesser blames Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Stevens and Young for turning off independent voters that would otherwise have gone to the polls for them.

But David Dittman, whose Anchorage-based polling group Dittman Research is used by Republicans, says it was more likely the Democratic-leaning voters who stayed home. Dittman attributes the low turnout to the expectation that Begich and Berkowitz would win handily and the news coverage showing long lines.

"They believed reports of long lines and long waits, and the need to bring a book," said Dittman. "And they thought, why endure the discomfort?"

Dittman also pointed out that his final polls before the election showed Stevens closing in on Begich. "There's not much doubt that the election was closing, and Stevens was gaining fast," he told us.

Others have said that McCain’s concession speech before the closing of Alaska’s poll may have had an impact as well. (And if you’re wondering about the weather on Election Day, it was five degrees colder than usual in Anchorage.)  

So are any lawsuits in the works? The Division of Elections hasn't heard of them.

And the Democratic Party spokesperson said she was hopeful that the final results would reverse the Stevens win for Begich. She said that any challenges would wait until after the election is certified on November 25.

Cross-posted at ProPublica, America's largest investigative newsroom.

Comments

[LeisureGuy]

There's also a mystery with the reported votes. If you look at the 40 "total votes" in the 40 House districts, you get a VERY odd distribution of first digits. Look at this post for the actual computations and a link to a post about Benford's Law (which allows you to detect false figures even if you don't know what the correct figures are).

[Elitnaurista]

It's odd. It seemed to me that there was more interest in this election than in any I remember. Everybody I'm acquainted with was really interested and motivated to vote. Something's fishy.

Jim Vait
Bethel, Alaska

[autumnimprov]

They're finally counting the absentee and questioned ballots at the Alaska Div of Elections.
At 3:30pm AK time, 11/12/08, Mark Begich had 125,019 and Stevens had 125,016 with approximately 30,000 - 35,000 more votes to count. The Div of Elections says they'll count all the rest of the votes 'over the next week' (whatever that means). Logistics really are different in Alaska.

It looks like Mark may very well win. Hope so
The Begich campaign has had people present. I'm told the Stevens campaign is doing the same thing.

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/08general/data/results.htm
Link to Anchorage Daily News story:
http://www.adn.com/elections/story/586989.html?pageNum=2&mi_pluck_action=page_nav#Comments_Container

[w8aminute]

I guess after the past nine weeks on the National stage, it's what we've come to expect from Alaska.

[BCubedReg]

Of course the election was stolen.. and probably by Stevens. What does Stevens have to lose by stealing the elction? He's 85, and a convicted felon who should already be in jail. What are they going to do to him but add a few more years onto his already venerable self.

[Soundofthunder]

Still counting votes 8 days later? How hard is it to count votes? Are the ballots written in an arcane dead language from a sword and sorcery movie? Or are the people assigned to count them a little off after binging on anti-freeze? I knew a guy in high school who used to work on an Alaskan fishing boat during the summers. He told me what goes on up there. After work, it's time to smoke pot and drink till you're half blind. But speaking from firsthand experience, I must say that midnight sun does make for some kil ler weed.

SOT

[condieshoes]

conspiracy theories, my foot. They always use this brick to throw at people when the obvious is right in their faces. 100k votes are missing.....where'd they go people?

2000 election in Florida, 2004 election engineering in Ohio....come on people. Wake up and smell the coffee.

[KoolBreez]

The term 'conspiracy' was deliberately maligned by the politicians after the JFK 'incident. It continues to be used to shut people up.

[larry278]

What will Obama do if Russia offers to take Alaska back & offers to supply USA's oil needs for the next 75 years at no cost to the USA, Mejico offers to take back all land the USA has stolen from Mejico in what now is the USA's south west & also gives the USA 50 cents an acre, Spain offers to take Florida & Puerto Rico back & pay the USA 10 cents an acre too, France offers to take back all of the Louisiana Purchase & give the USA 50 cents an acre, Queen Elizabeth, II tells the USA that all is forgiven re: the USA declaring independence from the UK in 1776 & the USA will enjoy Commonwealth status as NZ, Australia & Canada have if BHO makes a phone call to the UK's-Mr Brown- to OK the deal?

[larmarch5]

I don't know. We might be the United States of Goldman Sachs before Obama ever takes office. Whatcha gonna do?

[peterg76]

It still wouldn't be enough to get the US out of debt.

[anniegirl9]

"Lesser blames Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Stevens and Young for turning off independent voters that would otherwise have gone to the polls for them."

Wouldn't that have swayed things the other way? There had to be more to that explaination than this.

[NicoloM]

So the "long lines" don't indicate a large turnout? Long lines mean a lower turnout?
Voters weren't energized because of Sarah Palin? (is there anything she does besides cheer lead?) Ted Steven's conviction didn't energize Democrats? Record turnout in a primary but indifference by the oposition after troopergate? When I lived there we were dying for something to do, (we even bet on ice melting) no way we would have blown off this election. Five degrees isn't even noticeable.
Has anyone polled the Democrats to see how many who voted in the presidential last time, didn't vote this time? If all the Dems voted, then why the erratic polls?
I agree with AxelDC get the Mounties in there in a hurry. Sieze every one of Big Brother's machines for the CFI guys.

[WhoneedsGoverment]

I can see the excuses from here....

.

[ceti]

Just make a comparison with Canada's northern territories which also went to vote in October. While much smaller and the vote proportions were also down due new requirements, Canada was still able to count all its votes in one day.

Canadian elections are also arranged a month ahead of time, not four years in the making.

[ojisout]

Um, Canada? Isn't that another country?

[kylennblack]

Yes it is, and a dam.n good country at that.

[charlietuna11]

was the democratic spokesman appointed by the republican party?? i think thats a fair question..

[kathy001]

California is busy finishing up counting millions of votes. Alaska doesn't even have half a million registered voters. What's taking them so long to finish counting a relatively small number of votes? That alone makes me think something is not right.

[aloha43]

Reports of long lines? That's no excuse. The whole USA knew of those reports and they showed up to vote.

No, it is pretty odd considering that the polls EVERYWHERE else in the US were almost exactly right but the polls in Alaska, Sarah's state, were so far off......some by 22 percent....that is unheard of.

Something is fishy there. Those people are really good at electing people who have ethics problems, or worse...been convicted of 7 felony counts, and still vote them in.

It has to do with low intelligence or the election up there was rigged, or both.