On April 3rd, the iPad will finally be available. Over the past year there has been much pomp and circumstance centered on the iPad. This is in large part is due to Apple's enigmatic CEO -- Steve Jobs. It's undeniable that the iPad will have an impact in the way content is consumed and shared. How profound that impact will be is a complicated question -- wrapped in content availability and access to the Internet.
Apple has explained that the iPad will change that way we read books, listen to music, play games and surf the Internet. It has been touted as a media pad but I see it more as a productivity platform. An industry that might see the biggest impact is the education market.
I had the great pleasure of speaking with Kate Worlock, of Outsell, Inc. Kate is director and lead analyst -- she covers educational publishing for Outsell. I asked Kate what are her thoughts on iPad penetration in educational publishing:
The education market moves glacially slowly. Education is a very heavy and print reliant market place. In terms of the iPad specifically I don't think, in the short term, it will have a great deal of impact. Largely because in an educational setting -- it's difficult for schools and educators to think about delivering content through devices until those devices gain a mass market status.
It was not until the iPod gained mass market status that you began to see professors delivering content through podcasts. Education will not spend money and time on putting courses together -- if they are not going to hit 90% of their intended audience.What might be a strong possibility is the application of the iPad -- linking it to an interactive white board. I can see a professor using the iPad in the classroom to display notes to the class. I also see the potential for older students and professional market places.
Kate is spot-on with her assessment. There must be massive adoption -- not only by educational institutions but education publishers. I am not so concerned about student adoption -- especially college level. Since they adopt smart phones, in this case the iPhone, rather naturally.
"There is no doubt that the iPhone is very popular with all its applications that college students love," said Michael Hanley, an assistant professor of journalism and director of Ball State's Institute for Mobile Media Research.
I firmly believe that educational institutions and education publishers will adopt the iPad at an accelerated rate. This is largely due to the successful penetration of the iPod, iPhone and iTunes.
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Instead of loaning books out for two weeks. How about loaning text books out on a subscription basis? Better yet how about a subscription model for all text books?
Premium services not DRM is a must in creating a new and sustainable revenue model for print. I also believe it would allow for a rapid pace adoption of digital formations by print, institutions and students.
No DRM is a deal killer for the textbook industry. It would just be far too easy to pirate this content given the rather small size it would be a rather quick download.
"This could reinvent the used text book market."
I think they would like to do away with the used textbook market as it cuts in to their profits.
"interactivity is crucial", "Premium services not DRM is a must in creating a new and sustainable revenue model for print."
I think this is the model they will go with. A format that does lend itself to piracy, and which you only own the text for a limited time. In fact this is already done by coursesmart. Interactive and all.
The Nvidia Tegra 2 comes with the same Cortex A9 processor core, but adds a powerful video card capable of playing Unreal engine 3 games and 1080p video fluidly... and it plays Flash (it actually works with Youtube and free Flash games). Added to all this, it can run free, open source software, and will be available in generic, low priced configurations--there will be no Apple tax when you want to upgrade/repair it.
It seems to me that Apple is trying to sell an over-priced, under-performing product that lacks basic functionality that competitors have. If educational institutions force students into buying this crap, the tech savvy ones are going to revolt en masse. That's a fact.
By the way, for about 400 dollars most people can purchase a Tegra 2 development platform with working hardware that runs rings around the iPad's puny, expensive hardware dicrectly from Nvidia here: http://tegradeveloper.nvidia.com/tegra/get-tegra
The battery does last pretty long though.
The only way schools will embrace eReaders is when manufacturers partner with publishers and approach states with a great bundle deal that offers the eReader at a greatly discounted price if certain etextbooks are adopted across the board.
But the readers will have to do more than just provide books.
Color, highlighting, notetaking, video, active links.
And states will need to revise the adoption process, streamlining it and allowing for more frequent updating of adopted texts.
My prediction was 6-10 years in my district in my state.
Tablets will eventually come into their own, but the current iPad isn't quite where it needs to be to take over the world. It'll sell a lot now because it's got flash & sizzle, but it needs work to be truly revolutionary.
BUT given that iPads have over a 50% profit margin (the material costs are less then $200), and Android Linux and Windows systems can do everything an iPad can do (plus many things it can NOT), for a whole lot less money, I think the iPad will sink rather quickly.
There is absolutely NOTHING unique about an iPad. There have been very nice tablet computers on the market for over five years and over 95% of all computer buyers have yawned.
What has taken off like a rocket, is the very inexpensive, windows based netbooks which more than meet the needs of 80+% of all people.
As for multimedia crap, the netbooks are more than adequate for that too because they have decent graphics chips and the Atom processor is essentially a low-power version of the Pentium-4. Replace the 1 GB memory module in the netbook (required by MS) with a 2 GB or 4 GB module and add DVD player software, and the netbook is good to go for just about any application.
Given that Apple just produces overpriced clones of Windows and Linux stuff, I am surprised how many suckers buy the stuff.
On the contrary the iPad exists because of Apple's unique market position. Since 2001 Apple has progressively and successfully evolved their portable product line -- the iPod, the iPod Shuffle, the iPod Nano, the iPod Classic, the iPod Touch and the iPhone. Now provide a content rich platform -- iTunes and you have a successful product line. My argument is supported by Apple ability to sell over 200 million units worldwide; as of 2001.
I agree with you that net books can still do many things that the iPad cannot do but again we are talking about use case. What device best suites your needs? The iPad has received a great deal of attention because of its fan base and because the print industry is looking at the iPad as a new revenue stream.
I remember the outcry that the iPod didn't have an FM Radio and the iPhone's (continued) lack of Flash and Multitasking.
But the devices aren't islands- they're the Port of Access for the iTunes Digital Stores. And it turns out most people are willing to sacrifice technical functions for ease of use and instant access to new content.
Android OS is starting to catch up, but right now it's a bit of a mess; with a plethora of different devices and different versions, it's a nightmare to debug an App for every platform.
Windows 7 Mobile is on the horizon, and from what I've seen, Apple will have some real competition.
Not only are most college kids dumb, but most people in general are "dumb". Never underestimate a populations willingness to pay a premium for a streamlined, maybe even a little dumbed down experience.
Wether or not those are the "right" reasons for a product to be successful, I predict the iPad will be a success, and that in the next couple of years and versions, people will be finding new uses for it that we can't even guess at yet.
The approved apps will also be supported by multiple mobile platforms. This would allow for better support and stability. These supported platforms would be the same companies that make up the OHA membership -- Google, HTC, Motorola, Qualcomm, Samsung, LG, T-Mobile, etc.
1) the digital divide
2) the lack of old technology in new technology.
example: why don't cellphones have basic scientific features(exponents, logs, sin, cosine, etc) let alone a graphing calculator capability?
instead the kids have to purchase a calculator even though they have a small computer near-bout in the cell phone.
I remember my Motorola Q and that only had a basic calculator. I would imagine that other non-smart phones would also fall into the same category. Today smart phones such as the iPhone, Blackberry, Nexus One, etc -- all have application market places. The iPhone alone has over 150, 000 applications and yes they have a scientific calculator. Keep in mind that smart phones sales have increased 12.7% from 2008; totaling over 36.4 million units. This steady increase means that sooner rather than later these "old phones" will be history.
http://www.apple.com/ipad/guided-tours/
Apple computers are excellent machines, for sure, but everything else from the manufacturer is gimmicky.
iPods is the household name for portable music players, and iPhones got the advantage of a brilliant (accidentally so) marketing campaign.
iPads will not be so fortunate. It is truly for people who are Apple loyalists who have dough with nothing to with it, just to say they have one.
How disappointed they will be when they discover it does less than their iPhone and displays worse than their Macbook.
So far there have been an estimated 500 million units sold. There are talks that the iPad is already sold out. I am hoping that this is a good and clear sign that the iPad is here to revolutionize not only print but digital content.
The internal guts of an iPad is all standard off-the-shelf PC hardware that any personal system vendor can purchase. In fact, the iPad was designed by an ODM for Apple (the rumors are it was Asus or Quanta).
The notion that a I-Pad will be useful for note taking is flawed and in terms of books, if students want to pay $500 for the purpose of receiving some marginal discount on the price, they probably need to read an economics book first. It is unclear what the sales agreement with students will be on a text book and it certainly is unlikely that it can be transferred to others at the end of the semester.
If students want an I-Pad and they choose to spend their money to purchase one, so be it. Looking for an endorsement from universities, I doubt it.
The unfortunate fact is that publishers are scared. They are frightened of losing that healthy revenue stream and they are terrified of piracy. There is no question that a digital evolution is in full motion. A large part of this evolution is due to the 42 million iPhone’s and the high speed broadband connectivity that most universities enjoy today.
I am not just simply talking digitizing textbooks – that is somewhat pedestrian. I am talking about a full multimedia rich engagement which is supported by social media collaborations. Just imagine taking a Physics 101 class – you can read a digital book, this text book is updated in real-time, you can watch a video within this text book and then collaborate with other students.
Is that some Sci-Fi perspective of the future state of our education – I hope not.