Amid increased pressure from sanctions and now facing a voluntary embargo that would curtail their oil exports to a wide spectrum of their important crude oil customers such as the European Union, Japan, and Korea, Iran is coming under massive economic pressure to desist from continuing its not so clandestine program of developing a nuclear arsenal. The economic situation in Iran is becoming increasingly acute evidenced by its plummeting currency vs. the value of the dollar and other currencies. Clearly, the sanctions and the prospect of an oil embargo would have a crushing impact on a crumbling economy. Such that Iran is now threatening retaliation.
The Iranian government, through its Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, has now steadfastly proclaimed that, "If they impose sanction's on Iran's oil exports than even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz." The Iranians have already had fleet maneuvers in and about the Strait of Hormuz, and seemingly the message is clear: inhibit our oil exports and we will make passage of any oil through the Strait of Hormuz -- perhaps the most important oil channel in the world, through which some 20% of the world's oil traffics -- closed to all. If Iran succeeded, the world's economy would suffer grievously. Immediately, in response to Rahimi's threats, the price of oil jumped near $2/bbl on Tuesday.
But the question becomes: could they and would they really try, or are the Iranians simply attempting to stir an oil buying panic and raise fears of escalating oil prices and resulting economic disarray in world markets? In doing so they are challenging a long held policy objective subscribed to by many nations including the United States. Maintaining political stability and the free flow of oil to the global economy has been the overarching objective of U.S. foreign policy in the Persian Gulf for almost half a century. The U.S. Navy, together with an allied task force, has been one of the primary instruments of that policy, in both peace and war.
To that end the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet alone has a flotilla of near two score vessels including two aircraft carriers patrolling the Persian Gulf waters. Leaving no room for doubt, a spokesperson for the U.S. Fifth Fleet made it clear on Wednesday that it would not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait, by responding to the Iranian provocation, "Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated."
But something very important has come to pass. This Iranian regime has shown its true colors. Whether the Iranians can presently close the Straits is not altogether the issue here. This time around the Iranians may well back off in the face of superior and more sophisticated firepower. But -- and here is the crux of the issue -- would they back off if their nuclear arsenal were in place, and would we be so sanguinely confident that they would desist or be ready to engage them in combat? And under those circumstances, what would our choices be? These current events underline the absolute urgency, given the presumed advanced stage of Iran's nuclear program, that all be done now that can be done, short of open hostilities, to achieve a modus vivendi resulting in a nuclear weapons free Iran; as the next time, with a nuclear bomb in hand, it may be too late and the Strait of Hormuz might well be blocked with the enormous economic destabilization that would result.
Here is a lesson, a set of circumstances that makes it clear we need muster all that can and needs to be done toward achieving energy independence and energy self reliance with utmost urgency.
Follow Raymond J. Learsy on Twitter: www.twitter.com/raymondLearsy
Many in the world, outside our Obama loving media, see Obama's ONE TRILLION DOLLAR failed stimulus with REAL unemployment at 18% and more Americans living in poverty and one food stamps than ever before. Obama's PROLIFIC spending has ALSO resulted in record deficits and budget cuts that have resulted in coming spending cuts to our military.......... that NO DOUBT have not gone unnoticed.
With a weak economy, record deficts, military cuts with a coming election in which Obama panders to his liberal base by leaving Iraq and continuing to PONDER the Keystone pipeline...... Iran KNOWS Obama has a weak hand and is in NO POSITION to play hardball.
Iran is simply upping the ante.
Are the Iranians the only, or even the principle, interest that will benefit stupendiously from a doubling or tripling of oil prices if war should break out?
For the author of a book titled 'Oil and Finance: The Epic Corruption' it is certainly odd the column's writer doesn't address this question.
The same missiles that Iran bought from China, the C-802, was used by Hezbollah to successfully attack Israel’s INS Hanit only five years ago. (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/nov/17/israel-beware-china-arms-hezbollah/) The Hanit was built by Northrop Grumman Ship Systems in 1994.
The C-802 has a range of over 100 miles, and Iran has versions that are ship-borne, in bunkers along the coast, and in versions that can be launched from jets or helicopters.
Though technically true, it should be possible to remove much of Iran's offensive capabilities. Iran's ICBM site is fixed. Iran has sophisticated anti-ship missiles that they bought from China. But those missiles should not threaten the mainland of Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.
Any judgement of action must be measured against the danger of doing nothing.
The linkage with OWS is, at best, tenuous.
that tiny nation is hell bent on trying to control the ME...even though the majority of them have been there now for what 60 years...
their supporters in the USA completely control the congress and media...while staying silent on their illegal activities...
you talk about a nation that has completely lost its soul...
you are talking about the United States of America...
hook line and sinker the US congress and media has totally through its lot in with a terrible ME country