Oil at $120, Gas Tripping $4 -- Time for Plow Horses and Buggies, Even Toed Ungulates?
Crazy? Well yes, but perhaps you better check out that fox before you jump to conclusions. Just this weekend the Financial Times reported that camel demand on the Asian Sub-Continent is soaring ("Camel Demand Soars as Oil Price Makes Tractors Too Costly to Run," 05.04.08). Or as the Financial Times succinctly put it, "as the cost of gas guzzling tractors soars, even toed ungulates are making a comeback".
If camels, why not plow horses and horse and buggies for that matter. Economic benefits, environmental benefits? I'm sure there are some old farm hands paying through the nose for their John Deere tractors and their $5.00 gallon diesel who would be happy to put numbers to paper and work it out for us.
As for the camels, they cost around $980 a head according to the FT with a life expectancy of 60-80 years. Not bad when compared to initial layout for a John Deere tractor (sorry all you folks at John Deere, this is not meant to be a qualitative comparison but more of a rhetorical exercise), and even if there are some pretty old tractors around, few and far between in the 60/80 year old range.
How this all plays out regarding plow horses and work horses? I don't know off-hand, but given the corner we are, in someone should be thinking about it. Yet one thing sadly comes to mind, that according to our norms of conduct, stallions treat mares better than women are treated in some of the areas where our oil comes from.
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All these messages, and people forget a basic thing. It takes lots of acres, manpower, and feed to fuel the horses. It would make food shortages worse.
All this talk of getting rid of beef and trading in John Deere tractors for camels is silly. The problem is how to get rid of 4.5 billion surplus people quickly and cost effectively. Solve that, and everything from Global Warming to fuel and food shortages will disappear.
Gee, that's nice. Let's see you over at the Hiroshima bombing thread spewing that kind of nonsense.
We are not over populated by any measure. We have a shortage of freedom and capitalism, as well as a shortage of drilling and refining.
The funny thing is that with a camel one can probably feed half a dozen people, with a John Deere a couple hundred, if not more. So where we need a million tractors to feed ourselves, we would have to keep tens of millions of camels, horses, etc.. And sure enough, they want to be fed... which takes food away from people.
I don't know where the idea of rolling back the agro-industrial revolution comes from, experience with farming it ain't, for sure. For everyone who thinks otherwise, I would suggest holidays on the farm. And then please discuss your idea with a specialist aka FARMER and see if you can convince him to give up his machines.
Now... seriously, agricultural use of energy is a problem. It takes 400 gallons of oil equivalent to feed one American. But roughly 31 percent of that go into fertilizer, 19 percent into machinery and 16 percent into transportation. If we optimize the fertilizer and transportation piece of this, the machinery part will not bite us. Switching just one SUV for a Prius would replace the oil for running farming machines for FOUR people.
In Jacksonville, Fl, where I live-- hardly a walkable metropolis, we're the definition of suburban sprawl-- there has been a visible, and welcomed, shift by many of us younger adults to using bikes. Keeps us in good shape and saves us gas money.
We couldn't feed our population using such methods. As enticing as they might seem, you cannot produce the same amount of food with them as you can with mechanized farming. Why do you think we have 6.5 billion people on this planet? Mechanized farming led to surpluses which could be delivered to where they were needed.
Cheap oil meant cheap goods, as well as cheap food. Globalization was predicated on the notion we can keep the costs of making goods down by moving production of shore and thereby make goods cheaper to buy. To do this, we need a cheap, plentiful fuel supply, which we had until recently. Now that fuel costs are up, those off shore factories may not be able to deliver the low cost goods we have become used to.
We genuinely might be looking at the end of globalization. We now must figure out where we go from here now that we no longer have cheap oil to fuel that sort of economy.
The economics of Horses and Camels is marginal at the moment if we factor in the costs to importing East European peasants who know how to drive them, but if Israel attackes Iran in the next few weeks as some pundits are predicting then oil will go above $200 a barrel and the stockbrokers will be yelling "buy work horse futures."
http://machiavelli.blog.co.uk/2008/05/03/education-in-the-house-of-cards-4126428
ABC News' Bret Hovell has been reporting about Sen. John McCain's remarks today on the goal of U.S. energy independence meaning never having to send U.S. troops to the Middle East again.
“I just want to promise you this, my friends," McCain said in Denver, "I will have an energy policy, that we will be talking about, which will eliminate our dependence on oil from the Middle East. That will prevent us from having ever to send our young men and women into conflict again in the Middle East.”
I'm glad you brought up McCain's quote, which in my mind makes all this idiotic talk about who Barack Obama may have associated with, for example, seem inconsequential,
It is clear that a fair reading of his words makes clear that in McCain's mind, we are in Iraq today, as we were during the Gulf War back in 1991, because of oil.
We will be in Iraq for the next 100 years because of oil, and McCain was right about that the first time (he's denied since he ever made such a statement, but he's on the record - sorry Johnny).
Given the new global energy paradigm that is shaping up, the U.S. went into Irqa not because of Saddam and WMDs or to chase down al Qaeda, it was to send a signal to the Middle East, Russia, and China that we intend to control the supply of oil going into world markets from that part of the world. We will not let Iran, Russia, or China interfere with that supply, which incidentally keeps Europe and Japan in business as well.
It is geopolitics, folks, which is why Cheney doesn't care what you or I think, and will tell us just tthat if we ask. He and his unthinking sock puppet moron don't care if the world goes up in flames or the U.S. economy is eviscerated in the process, so long we we have control over that supply.
If the United States went to Iraq fro oil, WHERE IS IT?
Restore the 55 mile per hour speed limit. Reduce demand.
The cost of plowing a field will ultimately be factored into the selling price of the crop. Supply and demand will sort it out.
Gee, maybe this means I won't have to choose from 47 different kinds of bread down at the supermarket.
Maybe Americans will eat less.
Downside is that it drives the cost of food up around the world and people who spend 80% of their income on food will starve.
Maybe that is the real problem.
Beef is the problem. One acre of farmland produces 6000kcal/day in starch, oil and other plant foods. The same one acre produces 1200kcal/day in beef. Where one acre can feed two and a half vegetarians, it feeds roughly half a beef eater.
How about a bio-engineered horse that can either plow a 50 acre lot one one bag of oats .
A different variety can be bio-engineered to run at 75 MPH on the same bag of oats for a distnace of 500 miles.
Now that would be the solution to allour problems.No tractors, nopollution,no gas, no diesel,no smog.
Cows are one of largest sources of methane, a very strong greenhouse gas. Horses in such quantities would do no better unless we use the manure in bioreactors as an energy source.
One of the biggest pollutants in London in Victorian times was horse shit.
hedge fund gamblers have discovered the commodities markets, driving up the price of oil, gas, corn, etc. with their greed while crippling the world....outlaw commodities gambling!!!
It seems like Hillary's, and McCain's gas tax idea has sent the oil speculators on a frenzy. Look at oil today.
I'm guessing Obama's name isn' t there because he is too inexperienced to even know what a gas tax might be for.
And he is a bit to busy pouring Kool-aid to find out.
What are you going to do if your misplaced hopes on yet another
someone who can't cut on the job Oval Office training .
And gas turns into $10.00 a gallon , dear?
When are you going to figure out tha just because some ambitious rhetorician promises you anything on a campaign trail, it doesn't' mean he'll get the slightest congressional cooperation to carry it through.
And then what will you do?
Assuming the most unlikely. That mid-America would find any reason to vote for Osama.
stallions treat mares better than women are treated in some of the areas where our oil comes from............................
And KBR treats profits with far more care than the American soldiers fighting n areas where the oil comes from. The military gets to die from KBR giving substandard service while charging unquestioned hyper-inflated profits for their shoddy services.
Why are we so acquiescent about profiteering and its consequences?
KBR and Blackhawk are just as responsible for American deaths as Al Qaeda.
Except we know exactly where their corporate headquarters are.
gala
Dubai?
Profit uber alles.
Soon the Amish will rule the world.
I know you're joking, but it does actually make some sense for small-scale farming in the US. It's quite a bit more back-breaking work to plow a field with horses, but farmers in the Northwest and rural mid-Atlantic are already experimenting with going back to horse-drawn plows.
It makes sense at a time when gas prices are so high to re-assess the use of certain farm machinery. A John Deere might not be the best tool.
Now, I don't think you could really carry that argument over to the daily commute to work.
No, given the rather unpleasant emissions that horses contribute to our beleaguered environment, I might suggest that commuters consider one of the most brilliant inventions ever, and that is the bicycle!
Bike technology today is outstanding, there are a number of different bike types for different folks, and getting there and back on two wheels is good for mind, body and soul.
Give it a try sometime, and put pressure on public officials at all levels of government to expand the increasing network of bike paths and other services for cyclists who are making every effort to get more and more cars off the road.
And all that is good for all of us.
"Now, I don't think you could really carry that argument over to the daily commute to work."
Since we don't make anything anymore, we might as well cyber commute.
While the Amish are growing rapidly (no birth control), their numbers are small (around 200,000). To generalize from their lifestyle to that of the rest of the world is a straight recipe for disaster. One can not feed 300 million people the same way as one feeds 1500 times fewer.
sounds cool to me but have you factored in the cost of feeding and providing shelter for the camels? And how about the vet bills, etc. Would one need insurance? What if your camel bit my kid?
Why is your kid in his field?
Works for me. All I need is a shady place to park the horse while I'm at work. It might take me 20 minutes to get to work instead of 5, but it's worth it. And the by product of a horse is biodegradable and can be used in the garden.
If you live that close to work, you could ride a bicycle! No byproducts at all, easily stored, doesn't need food or water, doesn't need medicines, doesn't need training, etc. I'm kinda jealous!
It would take me much longer than that to ride my horse to work, and riding a bike is out of the question - my trek to work is literally uphill both ways. I'm getting a bit long in the tooth to be pushing pedals up hills that cause 4-cylinder cars to get slower (they don't have enough power to go up the hills and stay at the same speed, even when the accelerator is floored). Like I said, I'm kinda jealous - I have no option other than driving a car to work.
There are a number of new technologies coming to market. Here's an "engine in the wheel" that can be put on a number of different bicycles... set to release soon.
http://www.revopower.com/
Probably needs some shakeout before committing, but you can see the direction in which we are moving... low-cost, power-assisted, energy efficient, low-polluting alternatives. This particular engine can be disengaged entirely, or set to kick in only when assist is needed (going up hills or getting up to speed). Click on FAQs page for an overview.
And if all of us who could ride a bike did, you'd be paying a lot less for your gas.
you could move closer to your job
Gas prices in Europe have been over $4.00 a gallon for years and last time I visited London I did not see any camels on the streets.
Get a grip by getting a hybrid vehicle that gets 60-80 miles to the gallon. Then you won't care what the price of gas is.
If you can afford a new car, which most of us can't
> Get a grip by getting a hybrid vehicle that gets 60-80 miles to the gallon. Then you won't
> care what the price of gas is.
You, personally? What about the other 6.5 billion folks?
Most of them are even better by riding a bike or a scooter or the bus. A visit to Singapore would be quite eye-popping for most people who just can't believe that public transportation works. Not only does it work and is cheap, it is also privatized and profitable. The solutions to these problems mostly depend on the mindset of the responsible political class. People who have never seen it work can not imagine it could, so they don't even try. But it does work. However, it does require EXPERTISE, a random approach will not do. Americans will soon enough travel to Europe and Asia and beg for every scrap of knowledge from the world's leading experts on public transportation.
Don't be stupid. It takes more energy to build a hybrid, those damn batteries, than the hyvrid will save in its lifetime.
We can get 70 mpg from a diesel car. And it will burn petrol, propane, diesel feul, corn oil, CNG, and probably coal (dust).
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