President Obama's Pledge to End "The Tyranny Of Oil"; "Peak Oil" Mutating to "Peak Consumption"
President Obama pledged to end the "Tyranny of Oil." Much needs be done but enormous strides have been taken and are underway. The Energy Information Agency expects a reduction of 6.9% in petroleum based gasoline consumption this year from the 371.2 million gallons/day consumed in 2007. Demand for all petroleum based fuels-gasoline, diesel and jet fuel fell 7.1% in 2008, as reported in the Wall Street Journal ("Oil Industry Braces for Drop in U.S. Thirst for Gasoline," April 13, 2009).
We are all aware that the recession is currently curbing demand as budget conscious consumers forgo long road trips and laid off workers simply stop. Yet the pullback is far broader, more far reaching than the current economic constraints.
A multiplicity of factors are in play that for the first time will begin to end the oil cabal's long and painful hegemony over our lives. The government is undertaking important initiatives to increase energy efficiency and the usage of biofuels. The recently passed economic stimulus program has significant new loan guarantees to help renewable energy businesses to get financing and to start up new projects. Mass transportation will return to focus and new high-speed rail initiatives will change the American landscape of rail travel. The administration is working assiduously to toughen the average 35 miles a gallon standard for vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2020 as mandated by the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act.
Just last year biofuels made up approximately 7% of gasoline consumption. That is expected, at the very least, to double over the next decade.
Combine these factors alone with the changing life style of Americans, minimizing their commutes by living and working closer to their workplace, working from home part or full time, and a steep increase of the use of public transportation, either bus or train, by those still accessing their work destinations.
In full, the changes will be significant. As the Wall Street Journal pointed out in the article cited above, "Much of contemporary America from the design of its cities to its tax code and its foreign policy is predicated on a growing thirst for gasoline."
That thirst is beginning to abate. Even the oil patch's biggest cheerleaders, ExxonMobil, who earlier helped frighten a public and a market to $147/bbl oil, now finds itself obligated to acknowledge that that U.S. consumption of gasoline has peaked. This, the same organization that in December 2006 predicted that world oil demand would increase 60 percent by 2030 with an energy mix 25 years hence virtually unchanged, with oil, gas and coal remaining predominant. This, as if developments in biofuels, electric battery technology,solar, wind power, and plans for massive expansion of nuclear power in markets such as China and India barely existed. Shamefully, this prediction provided much of the rationale for the relentless escalation and super spike in prices a year-and-a-half later.
And just in case you missed it, Cheerleader in Chief, Rex "ethanol is moonshine" Tillerson of Exxon received what is now termed a "compensation" package of $23.9 million for 2008, an increase of 10% from the year before. This while being a happy bystander carried along by a cartel- and speculator-manipulated market, as tens of thousands of American families were cutting their food budgets to pay for their gas bills to drive to work and fuel bills to heat their homes.
With the tone deaf leadership of the likes of ExxonMobil (also remember ExxonMobil CEO Lee Raymond and his $400 million 'retirement' package) and the moral vacuity of too many in the oil patch, that maybe, just maybe, this is the time to seriously consider the creation of a National Oil Trust (please see "The Oil Industry is Driving Away With Our Future -- The Norway Solution," April 24, 2006).
We are fortunate to have a president who understands that it is long past time to getting the oil monkey off our backs. Could he go the next step? He would probably be surprised how many throughout the length and breadth of the nation would support an effort to bring the nation's oil and gas treasure back to its rightful owners.
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Gasoline consumption in January and February was actually up most weeks year over year. In the last three or four weeks it's been down between a little bit ( 0.2% and 1% yoy). The drop in oil demand is largely due to the drop in industrial demand, from factories being shut in and large trucking companies seeing weak traffic. Jet fuel demand has also been down because of fewer people flying, but the drop off to a large degree is from the drop in business travelers. Once the economy picks up again, demand should increase back to normal levels.
Government loans to renewable energy companies won't effect much or anything, as many renewable energy companies are currently going out of business from lack of demand and most the govt money is simply taking the place of private capital.
The high speed rail initiatives would take many years and likely never even happen because of the tremendously high costs.
About Exxon, I hope the author realizes the difference between US demand and global demand.
"Gasoline consumption in January and February was actually up most weeks year over year."
Well, total oil consumption was down:
http://ton
And that's the only thing that counts for the price discovery of the market.
But even if I look at motor gasoline, it's down:
http://ton
In January 2009 it was below 2004 levels. Where do you get the data from that says it's up?
"Once the economy picks up again, demand should increase back to normal levels."
What's a "normal level" in economics theory? Nothing, a thing like "normal" does not exist.
I get my data from the official oil inventory report that comes out each Wednesday at 10:30. This is from todays oil inventory report:
"Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 18.5
million barrels per day, down by 6.5 percent compared to the similar period
last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.1
million barrels per day, down by 0.4 percent from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged about 3.7 million barrels per day over the
last four weeks, down by 9.4 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel
demand is 9.3 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year."
Note that motor gasoline demand is only down 0.4% from the same week last year. This has been a stable trend for about four weeks now. Like I said above, demand was higher year over year in January and February.
Total oil consumption is not the only thing that counts for price discovery in the market. Sometimes gasoline demand drives oil prices. Early last year worldwide diesel demand drove the market. In most winters, heating oil demand drives the market. About "normal levels", there are medium and long term trends that create a normalcy in the market. Right now we are off trend.
The Brooklyn Project is an alternative to the idea of another Manhattan Project. For a Summary see www.aesopi
SPICE, A Self Powered Internal Combustion Engine, is one of several alternatives to fossil fuels briefly described on the new website: www.chavae
This, and other systems under development by Chava, will allow cars to become power plants when suitably parked. Wireless connection to the grid can make possible sufficient income to pay for many vehicles over a reasonable length of time.
Imagine the economic stimulus resulting from cars, trucks and buses that become power plants!
This not only can sharply reduce the need for oil, but provide an inexpensive alternative to building coal burning and nuclear power plants.
Sign me up!
As a retiree, I have a small car and fill it up every 2-3 months. All errands are done on a once a week basis! I know that isn't the standard, but with better planning, everyone can cut their fuel demands and tell these Oil CEO's that hypothetical bragging is hard to take back!
Hemp 4 Fuel..it renews every 4 months and gives us ethanol and bio diesel and also charcoal which pollutes way less than Coal....it also eats tons of CO2 while growing, and will enhance our energy independence and national self reliance..
Here: http://hem
Repeal the Harris Act!
This is what is distribution of the wealth. A 25 cent gallon of bio fuel will start at $1.50 Sounds .... wrong. Bio fuels like gas should start at 30 cents and capture the markets same as oil did. Add to that that diesel for farmers, truckers, trains and ships are a by product of making gasoline, Captain we have a problem. Since railroads and ships are the biggest consumers of fuel in the world with a smaller public shouldn't we first solicit their fuel problems and grow ours from them. Wasn't the railroad and steamship predecessors to the automobile. Seems History tells us what we must do, not new unknown adventures into fantasy land. The map is written follow the arrows.
$0.25 per gallon bio? Link please.
All wonderful, but I still see too many people hauling their lazy asses to the 7-Eleven in their Chevy Suburbans to buy a slurpy, thereby thumbing their nose at every other living thing on the planet.
Very true. We really need more public transportation, and high speed or higher than 80 mph speed rail for between major cities and states, and more commuter and light rail for suburbs and urban areas.
Raymond,
These are generally hopeful signs.
However, biofuels as we currently produce them are just as bad or worse than petroleum. If you put "sustainable biofuel" production in there or "future sustainable biofuel production from biowaste streams" this might be more favorable
"He would probably be surprised how many throughout the length and breadth of the nation would support an effort to bring the nation's oil and gas treasure back to its rightful owners".
"Treasure" belongs to those that find it. Uncle Sam does not drill oil and gas wells and in not drilling wells and bearing risk he still ends up with around 50% of the revenues received from production from federal lands.
Since you make your living writing books that demonize the oil & gas industry, I expect this kind of drivel from you on the subject but I think the majority of the American people want our nation's natural resources to be developed and used.
TXaggie: complaining again about those who want renewable resources of energy? Face the fact that oil, gas, and coal's days are numbered!
Fact? Saying something doesn't make it true.
Did you read what I wrote? The "treasure" does go to the rightful owners. If you want to use renewable resources, develop renewables, go for it but I bet you buy gasoline, enjoy air conditioning and use that computer that you are typing on, Where do you think this stuff comes from? Oil, gas and coal's days are numbered but that is a long time off, burying your head in the sand and whining does nothing to meet the energy needs of this nation!!!
"Just last year biofuels made up approximately 7% of gasoline consumption. That is expected, at the very least, to double over the next decade."
Converting food into fuel is not progress.
We need to move to a comprehensive mass transit system. The investment in a mass transit infrastructure will stimulate the economy and provide an asset of lasting value.
Alternate fuels are a mirage. The price of energy independence is for Americans to get out of their automobiles and use mass transit.
While I agree that mass transit is something we badly need in the US, we have to remember not to lump all so-called "bio-fuels" into the same category. Making fuel from corn (or any other food) is economically and ethically horrible. However, residues from the sugarcane industry or newer sources such as switchgrass or other non-food biomass makes a lot of sense.
Besides even should we undertake a massive re-tooling of our transportation grid - and we should - alternate fuels will play a big part in weaning us off of oil.
There could be no better investment in America than to invest in America becoming energy independent! We need to utilize everything in out power to reduce our dependence on foreign oil including using our own natural resources. Create cheap clean energy, new badly needed green jobs and reduce our dependence on foreign oil.The high cost of fuel this past year seriously damaged our economy and society. The cost of fuel effects every facet of consumer goods from production to shipping costs. It costs the equivalent of 60 cents per gallon to charge and drive an electric car. If all gasoline cars, trucks, and SUV's instead had plug-in electric drive trains the amount of electricity needed to replace gasoline is about equal to the estimated wind energy potential of the state of North Dakota.We have so much available to us such as wind and solar. Let's spend some of those bail out billions and get busy harnessing this energy. Create cheap clean energy, badly needed new jobs and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. What a win-win situation that would be for our nation at large! I just read a really good new book out by Jeff Wilson called The Manhattan Project of 2009 Energy Independence Now. http://www
Google: peak oil impacts .....and you will find a report that provides scientific studies that refute this article. Warning, the report is depressing, and so is this blog on Peak Oil impacts: http://sur
Warm regards,
Cliff Wirth
No need to worry about it. Oil is merely a convenience. We can do without it.
And we can't do without more invewtment in solar, wind, river current, tide, wave, and geo thermal power.
there is a 1000 years worth of oil underneath the artic and the artic is rapidly melting thus making this oil more and more accessible
There is much oil under Los Angeles and also between Dallas and Houston and along the coastline there but if Obama thinks he can alleviate the oil dependency by bringing in corn ethanol
and increase it by 600% as he had promised during his campaign, then we are even more doomed. Ethanol companies at this time are all in Chapter 11. We need corn to feed the people
more. Either bring the photosynthesis battery into the cars or put aside the myth about peak
oil!
Ever here of hemp? Better than corn to make ethanol. Ever hear of solar, wind, wave, geo thermal, river current power? Not sci-fi, but reality, but a need for those with the bucks to invest!
There are a 1000 years worth of oil under the arctic... at the consumption level of Albania. If you throw the rest of the world into the equation, you can forget about it. Not to mention that the retrieval of that oil will be so expensive that you won't want it in the end, renewable energy sources will be far cheaper.
But keep on dreaming.
You are so right, but Exxon Mobil, Texaco Chevron, and BP would rather waste their invesment dollars drilling for that hard-to-get-at oil than dumping the oil drilling equiptment and start making wind turbines and solar panels.
It is easier to move across the tundra when it is frozen, not when it thaws.
Let me envision the Obama Change to reduce on dependency from "big earl" aka Oil ... just like the other promises of no former lobbiest in his administration and a fed chief that can't seem to pay taxes- wow how about all the Dems that should pay taxes pay them and reduce our debt!! here is what will unfold to go along with this first 100 days of inexperienced butt kissing
1. Names Saudi to post of Oil czar for energy policy for US 2. Appoints Exxon former CEO become "green" advisor 3. Gives oil companies exclusive rights to produce electric batteries 4. Remember's he owes big oil from the donations from oil companies and delays any real energy policy..
cause his change is no change.
Huh? This makes no sense. Please read your post before clicking on "post". I am sure your ideas would be fascinating if they made sense.
Let me look calmly and honestly at your decree Jeff, to weigh its’ substance:
• “no former lobbyist”
Per Wiki: Lobbying is the practice of influencing decisions made by government. That noted, it would be difficult to find effective personnel to staff the positions of the cabinet who did not have some history of a tie to something or someone engaged or previously engaged in “influencing the decisions made by government”. I am all for brining on a trainee, but if he did that, what would your comment be then? Lobbyist, are part of the problem, yes on this we agree, but what to do...what to do about that sucking sound coming from that vortex of economic peril and governmental challenge.
• “fed chief that can't seem to pay taxes”
No doubt, Geithner looks tragic based on that lapse of reason or revealed intent to scam the government. This is not confined to Geithner or Democrats. The game was setup and fixed long before Mr. Obama came to town. Some people benefit some people do not. That is actually a Conservative point of view. Geithner was trying to get over to quote Curtis Mayfield.
• “all the Dems that should pay taxes”
Echo from above: --)))) --- “Not confined to Geithner or Democrats.
• “inexperienced butt kissing”
Please lay out your foreign policy strategy so that we can all gaze at and be illuminated and transformed by the omniscient magnificent plan of a warrior sage.
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