Perhaps it was only a dream, perhaps it was a WikiLeaks moment, but whatever, I hasten to pass along the news I stumbled upon.
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Dateline Riyadh:
We here in Saudi Arabia are fully cognizant of the existential danger that Iran and its nuclear program now presents to Saudi Arabia and to the peace and well being of the Gulf region; that a conflagration would not only be cataclysmic to Saudi Arabia and its neighboring states but to the world at large.
Saudi Arabia also understands that beseeching the United States to "cut off the head of the snake," meaning the government of Iran, is unbecoming to its dignity and standing in the world. This especially so in that a U.S. naval task force, at a cost of some $100 million/day to American taxpayers, is already patrolling what we here identify as the Arabian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz not only to keep shipping lanes open but, as is understood, to also act as protector of the Saudi coastline and as guarantor of Saudi Arabia itself against any Iranian aggression.
Saudi Arabia further understands that it must assume responsibility for its lax oversight of illicit funding of terrorist organizations directly or indirectly through Saudi entities, financial institutions, extremists organizations and wayward citizens that has done much to destabilize the region and has brought opprobrium to the Saudi State.
Given its worldwide standing and influence the moment has come for Saudi Arabia to pick up the mantle of leadership in dealing with the issue of an irredentist Iran which is heading the region toward a draconian crisis.
Saudi Arabia has also come to understand that the blessings of its vast oil reserves imparts unto it not only a path to vast riches, but also vests it with major obligations and responsibilities. Henceforward it will exercise these responsibilities in a manner worthy of its standing and traditions, to bring honor and peace to a troubled region and to win the respect of the family of nations.
It is well understood that Iran's oppression of its people and its nuclear ambitions are financed almost exclusively by its production and export of oil. Income from oil is almost the sole source of revenue for its oppressive and clearly illegitimate regime. Without oil revenues the government would falter (please see "Putting a Stop to Iran's Nuclear Ambitions... 09.27.09) and shortly the vast amounts of Iran's wealth directed toward nuclear development and its missile program would come to a halt.
Saudi Arabia understands that one of the great fears extant in the world is that the disruption of Iran's oil shipments would cause the price of oil to increase dramatically thereby setting back an already tenuous economic recovery.
With the cooperation of the world's oil consumers Saudi Arabia has it within its purview to bring to an end the malign regime in Iran without a shot being fired while maintaining the free flow of oil assuring that the world's economies are not impacted in any way by either oil scarcity or higher costs -- which has always been of grave concern in any scenario envisaging confrontation with Iran.
Saudi Arabia with the help of consuming nations and responsible governments worldwide will call for a total boycott on purchases of Iranian crude. It can and will make available the consequent shortfall of Iranian shipments by increasing its own production to levels replacing normal Iranian oil exports, and more, to assure price stability. Not a shot needs be fired, no warships need be engaged. The world would simply stop buying Iranian oil which would be replaced by Saudi Arabia alone if necessary but preferably in coordination with other Gulf producers such as Kuwait, the U.A.E., Bahrain all of whom would be equally vulnerable to a bellicose Iran.
For all to comprehend the parameters under which the Saudi nation is taking this initiative one needs understand that Iran exports some 2 million barrels of oil a day. Saudi Arabia's oil production capacity is 12.5 million barrels/day. Currently, and for the last few years Saudi production has been but 8.5 million barrels/day leaving an excess production capability of four million barrels/day. That is twice the export loadings of Iran of two million barrels. Saudi Arabia would replace these 2 million barrels of Iranian shortfall and more if needed, to assure that there are no market distortions.
It would continue doing so until the current Iranian regime is dissolved and the Iranian people are free to choose its successor.
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Well, if sometime in the near or distant future you read this or something similar, perhaps not so far fetched reportage, remember you read it here first.
I have always argued that the most effective sanction imposed against the Islamic Republic would be oil sanction and takes a cooperation from the Saudi Arabia along with Iraq and other oil producing countries to successfully achieve that, once they guarantee an additional output equal to Iran's current production, then we can boycott Iran's oil. The budget shortage will widen the cracks and divisions within the Islamic Republic, once they IRGC's payments are late for a month, they will turn their backs on the regime and side with the oppressed people and topple the regime, they just need the right excuse to do that
This is the key to getting rid of the Islamic Republic, without the oil revenue the regime will suffocate and the people will get a chance to remove the brutal regime once and for all.
Don't get confused, the regime has already cut most of the subsidies that was previously funded by the oil revenue meaning that the Iranian people don't have much to lose, but a lot more to gain.
Supremely ironic rhetoric coming from a country whose citizens have never experienced democratic elections for any position of governance-a country which LITERALLY has hereditary succession of leadership as an absolute monarchy.
well haven't we heard this line before, too many times? where is the 'iranians will throw flowers on US troop' part or is this deemed to stale...
Saudi Arabia is a monarchy, where no leader has ever been elected in any election, rigged or otherwise. It is a country that commits massive human rights violations; women aren't even allowed to drive a car in that country - they are second class citizens.
Yet all of a sudden, they are the good guys because they want to see Iran bombed. If Saudi Arabia wants "the head of the snake cut off", it has nothing to do with any altruistic feelings or concern for the region or its people. Saudi Arabia is one of the most corrupt countries in the world and can be bought to say anything. I am surprised anyone purporting to be a scholar would hang their hat on anything coming out of SA. But, let's be honest, every scholar has their own cause they shill for.
The world has more to fear from SA than from Iran, but hey, the Saudis are given the clear on the world stage because they help fund Presidential libraries.
Even if the issue of oil was resolved, how does the author purport ot deal with other issues in the Middle East, including the issue of Palestinian-Israeli peace? To say oil is the only issue that affects North American security reflects a rather ill-informed understanding of the region.
Who will make a call for a total boycott of Iranian oil ? Not the P5 + 1 who are just in the process of getting Iran to conform to the IAEA regulations and inspections. India, China, Russia, Turkey, Brazil will they support a total boycott ? All those countries and many more will oppose such an boycott because it is in contradiction to the diplomatic engagement they seek.
The Green movement, while critical of Ahmadinejad’s government, is also very patriotic and will in such an event fully side with Iran’s government.
Saudi Arabia certainly will not call for such an boycott. They know that Iran has not forgotten their huge financial support for Saddam Hussein’s invasion and war with Iran. They also know that Iran will sit not idle in such an act of undeclared war. An uprising in Saudi Arabia of the Shi’a population on Persian Gulf coast, stimulated by Iran, is not unlikely. Not to mention sabotaging Saudi Arabian oil installations and refineries.
Intervention by the US fleet in the Gulf to help oppress an uprising would make matters worse, and would lead to total loss of legitimacy and credibility of the Saudi regime with Muslims all over the world. A total boycott will also vindicate the Al Qaida message that these Arabian regimes are no more than puppets of the West, and it will greatly enhance their recruiting results.
Let's also not forget that Iranian military and quds force are not so incompetent to need nuclear weapons to deter/scare the Saudi, and in time, if the Saudi actually do align themselves publicly with Usrael, Iranians will use their soft power with the large Saudi Shia minority that incidentally makes up the majority in the oil rich areas of Persian Gulf to make life very very difficult for the Saudi Royals. Scholar should know all this.
If the scheme works, I think we should more than remeber your brilliant idea. We should all name our countries after our beloved rulers: Obama Amrekia, Merkel Almania, Sarkozy Gualia, etc.
The Saudi Oil production in case of war with Iran will be close to Zero.
The author has forgotten that thousands of Iranians short range missiles targeting every single oil resources, make sure that if Iran cannot export its oil no other hostile nation can neither.
2. For not understanding that it's our oil under their ground
3. For having friendly relations with Venezuela (another country that doesn't understand point #2)
Our approach to the middle east should be cleanly and clearly in our own interests, based on diplomatic and economic strategies, not military force or covert operations, and guided by necessary respect, not fear.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani/wikileaks-mideast-cables-_b_790483.html