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Raymond J. Learsy

Raymond J. Learsy

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The Looming Economic Crisis, the Price of Oil, and Our Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Posted: 02/24/11 05:42 AM ET

The price of oil for West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) now sits at over $100 a barrel. WTI is the benchmark for the price of oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMerc) and delivered in the United States with Cushing Oklahoma as the point of delivery. The other benchmark for oil pricing is Brent North Sea Oil traded in world exchanges especially London. Today the quoted price for WTI is $101/bbl while Brent is trading significantly higher at $114/bbl.

The difference reflects a difference in supply in the U.S. domestic market and that of the European and otherwise world markets. We have ample supply of oil in the United States with stocks both commercial and government (the Strategic Petroleum Reserve --'SPR') at or near all time highs.

Yet the events in Libya, more out of fear and distorted trading on the exchanges have pushed the price of oil to levels that are threatening the economic recovery worldwide even though our market is amply supplied. Yet, importantly, because of the current schism in the price of oil (WTI vs Brent) we are in a position to do something about it.

We have a Strategic Petroleum Reserve holding some 750 million barrels of oil -- available to the nation in case of national emergency. The looming economic crises caused by the massive jump in oil prices must certainly be classified a national emergency.

Given that our oil markets are well stocked, it is the traded price of oil that poses the grave economic danger. The government, by systematically releasing 200,000 to 300,000 barrels of oil a day from the STP until the events in Libya are resolved, could break the trading psychology that has overtaken the U.S. oil market and bring down the the price of WTI crude by some $20 to $30 a barrel. It might not impact the price of Brent crude directly but would certainly send a message to the International Energy Agency (IEA) to do likewise in that they control government stocks of 1.4 billion barrels.

Of course the oil industry and most likely the likes of the American Petroleum Institute will marshal their lobbying firepower to forestall such a dynamic initiative by the administration. Such attempts by the oil lobby would once again underline the divergence in priorities and responsibility between the oil interests and the nation's well being. Should that come to pass, perhaps this is the moment to strongly consider the 'Norway solution' and nationalize the oil industry altogether. Certainly in Norway the national patrimony of that nation's oil riches and its administration has benefited that nation making it the envy of much of the world. There is something wrong with our system whereby many Americans are freezing in the cold of winter permitting a given sector of the economy to cash in.


 
 
 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
doctorkosan
PhD Chem E, HBS
10:23 AM on 02/28/2011
This proposal of releasing strategi reserves makes no sense. the author admits that there is plaenty of inventory so that is not driving the price as is middle East unrest and uncertainty.
The world uses over 80 billion barrels per day of crude and inventories are adequate. In this case, release of 200,000 to 3000 barrels of day is pi ssing in the wind and hoping for an outcome that cannot happen. Dumb idea.
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jon999999
Chris Crispie Creme
02:16 PM on 02/27/2011
I'm counting on high energy prices to relocalize our economies and make shipping raw materials and labor overseas only to ship the finished products back too uneconomical. It would also kill off the deadwood companies built on the global scale and excessive energy usage while creating a new industries and companies to power a new economy.
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jon999999
Chris Crispie Creme
02:06 PM on 02/27/2011
Wherever there is oil, there are dictators, terrorists and corporations trying to destroy America.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Peter007
09:28 AM on 02/27/2011
The government has no role in manipulating prices or wages.
Its morally wrong and corrupt.

The strategic reserve is not a government toy to be used to enrich special people or groups.

Learsy is so far out in left field, he's actually out of the ball park.
11:18 PM on 02/26/2011
Go Raymond, the voice of sanity.
Democrat in the South
Empathy, the most important word
10:26 PM on 02/26/2011
Nationalize the oil industry? I like the sound of that. If we did that many many problems would be solved. He.!!, we wouldn't even need a stinkin republican party then. Lets nationalize all our national resources.

Let the republicans work down from that one. They'll be glad to get a crumb, just like everyone else these days.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RickMoss
09:43 PM on 02/26/2011
Hopefully things will stablize. Don't count on it. We know we have an energy problem in this country. Especialy when it comes to our dependance on oil. The government ingores it. The people ignore it. Time to pay and it's time to pay attention.

"WAKE UP PEOPLE!” - JOIN THE REVOLUTION
Read “Common Sense 3.1” at ( www.revolution2.osixs.org )

We don’t have to live like this anymore. "Spread the News"
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
07:51 PM on 02/27/2011
We don't have to live like this any more, but it seems as if we are going to anyway.
06:24 PM on 02/26/2011
oil people get nervous when the opec oil team loses composure - we don't import tons of oil from them but if they (or any one in the club) turns on the taps, they can over supply oil and flatten out prices. alternatively, if they turn off the tap, prices will sky rocket because the market people freak out thinking scarcity is right around the corner. oil price volatility affects us EVEN THOUGH we don't import lots of OPEC oil - but there's really only one "source" of oil (the planet) and the regimes who control mineral rights under their land [who may or may not be so fond of american foreign policy] can take the US to the cleaners because of the 1 source + super dependence on oil factor.
prosperity in the 90s happened IN PART because oil prices STAYED STEADY for the decade- time to move to a NEW + STEADY energy pricing scheme and 90s prosperity will flourish again! So Solar / Solar Thermal/ Wind Energy! Now!
Democrat in the South
Empathy, the most important word
10:28 PM on 02/26/2011
Fired up, ready to go!!!!
04:18 PM on 02/26/2011
Why are oil prices going up? The tails who wag our dog congressmen, that's why. Look at the countries we import the most oil from:
http://www.eia.doe.gov:80/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

Canada #1 and Mexico #2. Did our neighbors move or what? Mexico has a drug cartel war going on and prices have not risen. Seems Americans get all twisted up when the middle east shakes its finger without realizing what's really taking place. Congress could stop this if only they didn't take bribes from big oil. First we subsidize big oil with $40 billion, then pay at the pump as well. Why do we keep falling for this scam instead of holding Congress accountable? They have the authority to implement price controls.
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MSROADKILL612
am not convinced geothermal energy is above ground
01:11 AM on 02/26/2011
Look guys, it easy to make something complicated. Its hard to make it simple.

a/ its liquid fuels that are precious (hi energy to weight & runs zillions of legacy engines)

b/ there is no global shortage of natural gas despite what you read _ take away power gen and there is a glut

natural gas is a pretty good substitute for liquid fuels (oil) for heavy transport (trains, trucks, ships & even hi mileage cars)

we are squandering oil on non transport applications (power gen, heating) & transport that could use gas

we are squandering gas on non transport applications (power gen)

Un cool as it sounds, keep using coal but boost nuclear asap for baseload, encourage wind and googles initiatives in this area, forget solar panels (a pathetic daytime trickle charger that wouldnt survive any cost benefit analysis w/o subsidies (extend your bare arms on a sunny day - u can sense how little energy a solar panel is getting per sq")), solar hot water is good in lower latitudes.

My main point - start converting transport big liquid fuel users to cng asap, or there will be no substitute for going without oil - you will need a $3k cng lawn mower.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
WFWS
Proud Liberal
06:30 PM on 02/26/2011
Do yourself a favor an learn more about alternative energy before you go pontificating with energy solutions. Solar panels, wind turbines, and yes even conservation, are a better solution even in the shorter term- if you count the real cost of any fossil fuel- its environmental costs, its greenhouse gas emission cost, etc.
There are lots of emerging technologies that are now going into production that will prove the worth and the strategy of alternate energy over coal and/or NatGas.
BTW, I have hot water solar in Washington State. I cut my energy bill in half, even though it often is not working on cloudy winter days. Learn more. It will change how you think about this stuff.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Dean Robichaux
03:11 PM on 02/28/2011
Let me know next time you jump on that wind or hot water powered jet .
Linda from Deerfield
Paying attention
04:19 PM on 02/25/2011
Why would anybody continue to heat with oil? If the market does not see fit to deliver natural gas, isn't propane a cheaper alternative with less volatile pricing? I realize that nobody wants to throw out a perfectly good furnace, but those things can't last forever, and folks have had since the 70's to get used to the idea that oil prices can spike.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Peter007
09:32 AM on 02/27/2011
Everyone needs to do whats best for them. My friend from Vermont just called and said he paid over $500 in January to heat his 900 sq. ft. house that he kept at 58 degrees. He uses propane gas and says he is penalized if he doesn't use a lot.
Linda from Deerfield
Paying attention
12:49 PM on 02/27/2011
I have no right to second guess propane price pressures. Your friend's situation seems outlandish. I could offer a comparison if I had your friend's annual BTU's (or therms, or cubic feet) per heating degree day (or location where I could look it up based on a 65 degree Fahrenheit offset) per square foot. There were 7423 HDD's for Montpelier, VT in 2010 (source: Weather Data Depot). There were 7988 HDD's in 2009. A rate of 10 BTU/HDD/sq ft is a leaky, inexcusable disaster; 5 is respectable and better than a house that was built to code in 1994; 1 or less is wonderful and next to impossible without spending big bucks or sacrificing a lot. 58 degrees is very chilly.
03:30 PM on 02/25/2011
"Looming Economic Crisis"? Where have you been the last 5yrs? Oh, I forgot, Obama said the "recession" was over in '09. Tell that to the 22% unemployed and 44 million on food stamps or the rest of the middle class(or what's left of it) that are taking it in the shorts. All as Wall Street carves up 44 billion in bonuses.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sharon F
07:48 AM on 02/27/2011
Don't blame Wall Street or Big Oil or Big Banks. Blame the public sector unions. That's what the Republicans seem to be doing.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jstrate
11:28 AM on 02/25/2011
It's quite sensible to draw down a stockpile when prices are high and replenish the stockpile when prices are low. Is this rocket science? The idea of nationalizing the oil industry is less appealing. Monopolies generally are not run very efficiently. The U.S. consumes such a large portion of the global supply of oil that a tariff might enable this country to affect prices by reducing demand and capture a portion of the rents from rising prices that now wind up in the coffers of foreign governments.
11:26 AM on 02/25/2011
"Cushing Oklahoma as the point of delivery."

The storage tanks there are overflowing, there is no shortage. What's missing is a pipeline to connect additional refineries to this source. This is several years away and the oil companies are in no hurry to complete this project. The Government is sleeping through this as if Bush were still President.

"economic crises caused by the massive jump in oil prices must certainly be classified a national emergency."

This is not a national emergency. If this routine interruption like the previous dozen or so was an emergency we would NOT be dependent on oil to extent we are. It's been 38 years since the first oil embargo and 50% of the oil we consume goes into automobiles. Many of these are the same gas guzzlers as 38 years ago. The only national emergency here is a lack of collective intelligence. Apparently we're just too stupid to operate an economy.

As was the case in 2008, the price rise is due entirely to speculation. Deregulation has allowed the futures market to be run like a casino. If you are serious about maintaining price stability, start by making the trading of commodities transparent and limiting the number of contracts that can be sold.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
notdarkyet
End the Drug War.
03:20 PM on 02/25/2011
They deliberately don't build pipelines and refineries as an excuse to control supply and demand. When we have too much, prices seem to increase. Bush never touched the reserves even when people were screaming at 4 dollar gas.
02:57 PM on 02/26/2011
Great post...just like in '08...there is no shortage, there is a surplus...the MSM helps the oil corps and the futures markets rake in the dough at the expense of the rest of us...you would think there would be a few more people with ethics, values and a conscience...

The greed and hubris will be our downfall...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
08:00 PM on 02/27/2011
One would like there to be a few more people with ethics, values, and a conscience - but they seem to be vanishingly small among the upper levels of corporations and government. What ever happened to the human race to make money and possessions so attractive, and the health and welfare of our race and all of the rest of life on this planet of such negligible worth?
11:20 AM on 02/25/2011
The only time a strategic reserve should be used is amidst cataclysmic events, otherwise we are just exacerbating the band-aid philosophy of addressing gaping holes in coherent policy with short-term "fixes" - that merely keep the sagas playing out in continuing shocks for lack of strategic policy that looks further than the next quarter or poll. An oil "shock" has been in the cards ever since the last one subsided - of its own affect. All this did was to send the matter back into hibernation.

Insofar as speculation, I suppose if enough nations heavily taxed profiting and turned this windfall back to the general population and toward alternative development it might help and be appropriate.