'Knocking Out the White Man:' 10 Reasons Obama Still Loses in Middle America

Barack Obama and John McCain squared off tonight for the first presidential debate. All through the night my Facebook page was blowing up with congratulatory posts and chest-pounding status updates. But among the self-congratulatory excitement was a palpable sigh at the heavy reality that is settling in. The question now looms: Is it enough to simply be the better candidate? I say no, and here's why.

1. Attention Obama fans: He already has your vote. This isn't the primary; it's the general election. You need to remember that this is now mostly a fight for the heartland, aka the red and pink states. The so-called swing voters are not disenchanted Hillary supporters. Those we can count on to do the right thing, even the P.U.M.A.'s. These are corn-belt Reagan types -- or as they're usually called, 'hard working people.' They don't believe in a Bush III presidency, but a slick Shepard Fairey poster doesn't sway them either. Obama needs to tell these folks they've been sold a bill of goods by the Republicans for the past eight years and lay it out for them in stark detail. He's got to remind them that it wasn't the Democrats that failed to fund the war; it was George Bush failing to fund the Veterans Administration. It wasn't Democrats who allowed the economy to tank, it was the so-called party of the fiscally conservative that watched it all come barreling up to this point. And he needs to paint the slippery maverick with a big bulls eye and not let him slink aboard the Circular Talk Express, as Jon Stewart described it.


2. Democrats are still wusses (so tempting to say what I really think). At least that's the view in Middle America. Why did Obama recite all of his military arguments as a solo act? Why didn't he quote any of the many generals and military folk that support his campaign and ask McCain to counter them? What about his support from former secretaries of state or veterans? He looked only slightly better than a typical Democrat overcompensating for his nuanced positions on foreign affairs and military policy. What about using the words of Colin Powell, who just the other day pretty much blamed Condi and George for being asleep at the wheel while Georgia spiraled towards conflict with Russia? Why not toss McCain's 'We're all Georgians' back down his throat? Dozens of military leaders would probably echo Obama's more careful stance with Russia and aim sharp criticism at the reckless Georgians. Why not ask McCain how he hopes to get his Republican machine in line, the same ones who mangled almost every step of this war and occupation since the jump?


3. McCain was wrong about Pakistan, and not just in the pronunciation of its president's name. When McCain challenged Obama for pushing for raids into Pakistan territory in pursuit of Al'Qaeda, Obama needed to push back hard. It isn't enough to clown McCain for his 'Bomb Iran' song--Iran is an enemy of America, according to popular opinion, so only bleeding hearts care about war drums for them. Instead, why didn't Obama mention the raids that are already happening (at least according to the Pakistanis) courtesy of the Bush administration? Our soldiers and helicopters are already engaged in firefights with the Pakistani army, under our current president. Why not force McCain to criticize his commander in chief for real time operations -- a political plank walk -- as opposed to letting him beat you up about your hypothetical declarations?


4. Aaron Sorkin will not get you elected. This isn't The West Wing. At this point, Mr. Obama, your presidential poise is becoming a liability. Time to break a sweat and get some blood on the fists. Forget the angry black man tag, the once dynamic new thinker is in danger of just being another young, good-looking politician. And the Democrats lose with those all the time.


5. Sarah Palin doesn't matter. Get over it. No, she only obliquely came up in a quick McCain comment tonight, but she's never far from Obama supporter's arguments. Yes, even some conservatives know she's a tool. But continuing to attack her only makes he stronger. Leave her alone and let her fail/fall/fumble on her own. The VP debate is just around the corner. If she doesn't go down then, she'll never wilt under a thousand late night jokes and mean political cartoons.


6. Love doesn't get people elected. Fear does. Sorry, but that's the cold truth. Obama has gotten this far on the backs of our love for him, his spirit, the hope he inspires, and how he makes us feel. Unfortunately, that hasn't won an election since 1960 and it barely worked then. A better make-up job on Nixon and we'd never have heard of John F Kennedy. We're a lot more cynical society today and there are two wars raging, terrorism fears and near financial collapse. What's love got to do with all that?


7. Hillary. Obama could have utilized Hillary several times during the debate. For one, McCain mentioned her by name as an example of his bipartisan budget cutting. Then a few minutes later, he cut down Obama's health care plan as some sort of socialist government program. Hello, that's Clinton's plan too -- and it comes with 18 million hungry voters. Why not take that straight to McCain while Clinton's name's still fresh in the room? Mr. Obama, please use these Hillary voters to your advantage and talk to them whenever you can. And never let your opponent co-op her name.


8. America knows Obama opposed the war. A big part of the reason he captured the nomination was because he won the battle of good judgment long before the middle of the country had finally grown sour on Iraq. But now he finds himself sounding like a broken record in a room where the mood might have more recently changed. The war now looks less important, if not 'winnable' to many. So when McCain accused Obama of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, it has an effect, especially among those heartland voters he needs. No matter how unfortunate and inaccurate this view is, it's a defining characteristic of defeatist Democrats. (And, by the way, citing Biden as evidence of your military experience just plays into the hands of critics who think you chose him simply to prop up your foreign policy deficits.)


9. Obama is still too defensive. He answered several of McCain's attacks with agitated counter attacks. This style might please the ringside cheering crowd, but it doesn't feel presidential to me. I wanted to see him rise above McCain's jabs and use his statements as a launching pad to his hopefully more sound solutions. Then, after he's decimated his opponent's presumed weaker or hypocritical positions, he can come back and finish him off by dismantling his statements.


10. Still standing is winning. Unless you're Obama. Chris Rock put it best: you can't beat white people; you can only knock them out. Replace 'white' with 'standard bearing gray-haired legacy candidate' and the rule applies. Applying this to the presidential race means is that it isn't enough for the contender -- Obama -- to just stay in the ring. When you're fighting the presumptive heir to the championship belt, you need to knock them completely to the mat. Kerry didn't do it and neither did Gore. Obama needed to leave McCain lying in a pool of Republican contradictions and failed Bushisms. But like the nightmares I have when I'm swinging at an attacking opponent and just not connecting hard enough to make a difference, I kept shadow boxing on my sofa as Obama took admirable swings but landed insufficiently. He needed to send McCain tumbling (Hell, I'd settle for grumbling or mumbling). It didn't happen tonight.

Stay tuned for the next round. I hope I'm wrong about all of this.

Update 9/28

What Middle America sees:

Read more reactions to the first presidential debate from HuffPost bloggers, including Nora Ephron, Bob Shrum, Madeleine Albright, Paul Reiser, Arianna Huffington, Sean Penn, Sheryl Crow, and more.

Follow Raymond Leon Roker on Twitter: www.twitter.com/raymondroker

Comments

[tbone99]

Dems come off as wusses because if they won't fight for their own party and their beliefs , who can believe they'll fight for the country and the people in it ,if threatened ?

[wagadog]

Obama has tremendous headroom.

Now that he's ahead in the polls, he can step it up.

The KO blow has to come the weekend before election day.

It's like starting a song somewhat quietly, and building to a big crescendo.

[amoment]

No wonder America has become a land of violence. Even a presidential debate is defined by " which candidate had the most "knockouts."

[Blk independant]

Look I understand where this is coming from but we have to be realist here...There is still an number of people who can not fathom an African American in this position. So Obama has got to present himself as what is really is. His is calm cool and collected. This is so different then any of the stereotypes that are out there. I mean Obama is more Colin Powell then Jesse Jackson. He sees things through the eyes of plenty and just not through his own. Obama was not born with a silver spoon in his mouth. He came from middle america himself. You know Kansas is not your run of the mill liberal places? The only difference is his skin color! He wins the urban vote not because he is some kind of radical liberal he wins the urban vote because majority of these voters think differently then those in rural places. In the urban areas whites, hispanics, asians, etc they see that not all African Americans are the same. Some in the rural America, not all that have not been exposed to such a thing may see things differently.

Example. My first year of college, my roommate, said to me "I've never been around a black person until I came to school, you are completely different then I imagined". This is the type of thinking that still persist in some places.

[LillianB]

Impressive analysis, thank you! There isn't anything in here I don't agree on - except for the "can't beat the white man". In every election US have ever held, a white man has been the no. 2. (A white man has been no. 1 too, but right now, I hope that's not where we're going.) Obama just has to keep up that first statistic to break the second statistic.

To most of the US, I suspect, the "law professor" part of Obama is more fear-inducing than the "african-american" part of Obama. It's when he gets abstract people stop identifying with him, that's when they start fearing he won't understand them. He should still prove himself intelligent, knowledgable, capable of big ideas and grasping even bigger complexities. But he has to explain them in simple terms, with less ah-uhm-eeehs and comma-filled passages (and I am at least as guilty in the latter as he is, I know, I know, but I am not running for P) - to reach to that beloved heartland. If he does, this'll be in the bag. If he doesn't, McCain can lie all he wants and own more houses than he can count and still be accepted as the "honest and down to earth" candidate.

[HeatherRose]

Are words like communist or police states banned here?

[remc]

Democrats always lose with young, good-looking politicians? Yeah, that explains Kennedy and Clinton.

Gore and Kerry are fine men, but I wouldn't describe them as young or particularly good-looking.

[jazzdrummerb]

Obama-Biden can win middle America and IS winning middle America. It's hard fought work, and it will take all of us doing something to GET OUT THE VOTE. I for one REFUSE to let pessimism rule the day.
Raymond had his say...freedom of speech is one of the reasons America is the greatest nation on earth. But he's wrong.
I spent time this weekend canvassing for Obama-Biden in suburban Pennsylvania. I've never been motivated to do this before. It surprised me frankly how many undecided voters took the time to engage in intelligent, thoughtful conversation with me. They wanted information and guess what--I was there to give them some. I know that I made a very small difference. I believe that one more voter went from "leaning Obama" to "strong Obama" because he got the nudge from me he was looking for. That's how elections get won. On the gound.

Raymond, stop cryin' man! Give America more credit than that. I'm a middle aged black man. I can acknowledge that America today is not the America of 40 years ago--not even of 10 years ago. The old guard is dying off. There's a new generation and new leadership coming of age. Things change too slowly--but they are changing. We need to forgive the past, live in the present and start building the future.

Get out the vote!

[yvonne61]

I'M SO TRIED OF YOU PEOPLE TALK OBAMA DIDN'T REACH THE MIDDLE CLASS HOW DO YOU KNOW? IF YOU LOOK AT HIS RALLY I SEE MORE DIFFERENT( COLOR) PEOPLE ALL AROUND. SO, I WISH PEOPLE TALK ABOUT ABOUT THIS IT'S GETTING OLD. AFTER DEBATE IT SHOW ME THAT MCCAIN WILL HAVE AMERICAN IS TROUBLE THAN BUSH WHO WANT THAT? PEOPLE NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR OBAMA ANY WAY BECAUSE, OF OTHER REASON A YOU KNOW WHY. SO. GET OFF OF THAT LIED. I DON'T SEE WHY THAT THINK MCCAIN THE RIGHT ONE AFTER THE LAST 8 YEARS YOU GOT TO BE CRAZY AS ( YOU KNOW WHAT) TO THINK SO. IF MCCAIN AND PALIN GET IN OFFICE WE WILL REAP WHAT WE SO.

[BKLN]

Roker's piece makes some good observations and ones that Obama has likely already considered. The idea to bring out quotes from Powell and Baker and Greenspan and Kissinger others is solid and will further the perception that Obama UNDERSTANDS the role of the Presidency. At the debate it would appear Obama chose to do something like this by agreeing with a number of McCain's positions and comments.

I think Obama can and should be more assertive as the debates continue. He has the room to do that and will likely have more room to do so as the campaign continues and if McCain promises to step up his attacks on Obama. We know that the "socialist" card is likely coming. Being more assertive will reinforce the perception of leadership and willingness to confront threats.

I sincerely hope that at some point - should McCain continue to do it on the debate stage like he did last Friday - that Obama turns to McCain and with all the sincerity he has at his command and says "John, you really need to stop lying to the American people."

[Stringer32]

Sorry buddy, but your arguements are weak. Im tired of these pieces like Raymonds warning people to be afraid, while they produce a list of reasons why Obama will lose as if calling it before in the event he does will some how make them look smart. Show some humility and stop acting like you have all the answers about what needs to be done to ensure victory. Obama has people alot smarter and informed than you Raymond advising him, they have gotten him this far without him having to freak out in an effort to answer every lie McCain puts forward.

[jdmba]

Hear, hear! These types of anti-Obama puff pieces are so old, and they do more damage than good.

Just as Obama fans will always support him, so will many many white Obama haters always "Otherize" him simply for his race. Obama has done well not to pander or act out of his character, instead forcing McSame to engage in dramatic charades and stunts. Stop trying to shape public opinion against Obama by saying his diplomacy is not presidential.

[globalcitizenlinda]

You're ignoring the main question that is reflected in the title: just how would mid-America react if the black dude with a funny name throughly beat-down a very old white dude who also happens to be a POW??? And for good measure the black dude also opposed the war in which their children (and the POW's) are dying, being wounded, serving, being deloyed to?

Remember Muhammad Ali when he beat down an able-bodied white man, opposed the war and even had a conversion to Islam ( rumors circulating about Obama's religion)?

Remember how white mid-America reacted to Ali's obvious dominance in strength in the ring, Ali's in-your face rhetoric and his open opposition to the war given his religious conversion? Ali was persona-non-grata!

Obama hasn't forgotten. One of the largest photos in Obama's office is one of Ali in the ring just after he had landed the knock out blow (a photo of Obama working beanith is on official website)

Rest assured that Obama hasn't forget for one second that he is a black man with a funny name. At all costs he has to avoid being an angry-black man. If Obama listened to all of us extreme liberals who want him to cannibalize McCain on live tv, there is NO WAY he will win.

[cskoog]

This post has many points that Obama's campaign should attend to. Obama may not have to 'close the deal' or come in for the kill, and it may be better if he doesn't, but here are suggested many points that could make his case stronger among important blocs, especially if he executes them without losing the composure that has made his less than compelling debating adequate enough so far. I think it is true that notwithstanding McCain's apparent unraveling, it is not prudent to leave such things as these outside the debate.

[ExpatDane]

It is amazing the lack of respect the pundits continue to show about how Obama is running his campaign.

Why should Obama knock McCain out now? Old John would have 39 days to get back up. No, Obama's doing the right thing by letting McCain knock himself out. Just as he has done with Palin. Almost everyone of the idiot pundits were blinded by her shrill address to RNC. But an astute observer, and that is what Obama is - saw that she was out of her league - and now she is the laughing stock of the campaign.

I am sure that Obama is saving the knockout for the last round. McCain won't know what hit him and he won't be able to get up. Obama has timed this thing perfectly thus far. And I'll say it again, if he doesn't win he still wins because he has not sold his soul and his honor is in tact.

[23000Days]

Exactly.

[PumaAnn]

I personally think that polls about who won or lost are suspect because that's not really the way people vote. I liked Bill C.'s explanation. Voting is a complicated process, particularly if someone isn't quite sure by this time.

I thought Mac looked commanding. O sounded tentative at times. Both got their positions out clearly. And the moments of flubbing weren't disastrous. The bracelet deal was lame, but not deadly.
I thought O sounded "educated." That appeals to some. I thought Mac actually was more articulate and clearer. That appeals to others.

It's just one piece of the picture for voters. The lines are pretty clear.