Fogies for McCain: Part II

From here on in to Election Day, I will present the viewing numbers of FoxNews versus the viewing numbers of the combined CNN/MSNBC audience on a week by week basis as an indication of voting trends. For simplicity's sake, I presume Fox viewers to be Republicans and CNN/MSNBC viewers as Democrats.

On that presumption, last week we showed Obama leading McCain by 2% in total viewing, but with a far greater lead, about 60-40 with younger viewers. Obama, this week, has solidified those numbers and now leads McCain 53.5% to 46.5% in total viewers watching, a 7 point lead. His demographic lead is also gaining. He has 62.3% of 25-54 year old voters, 65% of 18-49 year old voters, and an astounding 70.8% of viewers 18-34.

It is apparent that McCain's strength among those 55 and older is the only thing that keeps him in the race among those people watching cable television news. It's time to note that the television audience is much older than the general population. That might predict better things for Obama, because if all the 18-34 year olds vote the way in the same proportion to the Nielsen television audience, he'd have an easy victory. On the other hand, if the young McCain voters just don't bother to watch television, he'd have a much tougher time.

I think the race the race is much closer than any of the polls indicate; the only thing I'm certain of is that fogies are still for McCain.

Comments

[MediaConcepts]

This is an interesting analysis. It reminds us that, nowadays, people gravitate toward cable news channels that may, to some extent, validate what the viewer already believes (although Fox News is in a league by itself in presenting one side's propaganda as "news"). It also suggests that people tend to vote for candidates who are "like them" or who they believe "share their values," even if it's on a subconscious level. In the case of white fogies, the simple choice for many is between another white fogie and a bi-racial non-fogie. However, while McCain is only ahead in this one age demographic, if I'm not mistaken, that demographic has by far the highest voting percentage, as opposed to young voters, who often tend to show excitement early on and then fail to show up at the voting booth in massive numbers.

[JoeQuimby]

if you knew your team was in for a hiding you would most likely be out drowning your sorrows
which is exactly were I think the young McCain voters will be come election night.

[Nonamnesiac]

I think it's unfair for HuffPo to characterize fogies as pro McCain. I'm an old fogie as are most of my friends and we're all anti-McCain. I think McCain represents the old farts while old Fogies oppose him. Please stop slandering us old fogies.

[feo]

Log me in as another old white dude Vietnam vet for Obama. And the old gal I married many years ago thinks the same. And our handicapped daughter thinks the same. And anyone which an ounce of brains thinks the same.

[heal57]

I am a 63 year old white female who lives in Arizona. I live in a retirement gated community. My husband and I have already voted for Obama, but the only signs in anybody's yard besides ours [Obama] is 'McCain/Palin'. My sister and many of my 'friends' are voting for McCain. My husband and I want a better life for our kids and grandkids but most older people are stuck in their ways, unfortunately.

[nutty4tahoe]

I am a 62 year old white "fogie" who lives in the ruby-red state of Kansas. My husband, in-laws, relatives and friends are all "fogies" and we're all voting for Obama.

The reason this state is so red is because there are many fogies here who are creatures of habit, resist change even when they know it would benefit them, and don't know what it means to have an original thought. These are people who don't get out much, never travel past the nearest small town, and see the world through a tunnel. These are the McCain supporters. I reject the "been through what I've been through" argument because: 1) McCain hasn't been through what I've been through (he was the son of an admiral whose clout got him, a marginal student, into the naval academy, remember?); and 2) I want someone who is intellectually curious, who will be cool and analytical under pressure, and a thinker who is smarter than I am. Among the local fogies the morning coffee talk is all about the economy, unemployment, failing schools, unending Iraq war, McCain's lack of support for veterans' programs, but.........(and I quote) "You wouldn't vote for a democrat, would you?" It's that mindset that got us eight years of George W. Bush. Luckily, voters in many other states seem to be cluing up. All us realists stuck in red states are counting on you guys! Please don't let us down!!

[GeezerusMaximus]

Excuse me, but I a resident of Indiana, and I am well past the 55 year old cut off, as many of my friends are too. We are Obama supporters and have already voted. Too bad none of the pollsters have called us and asked our opinions. dern whippersnappers!

[Reese Schonfeld - Huffpost Blogger]

From someone who ain’t no whippersnapper, I have no doubt that many others my age will join me in voting for Obama. But, at least according to the numbers, a great majority will go the other way. I realize that many Huffington readers don’t want to believe this, but the numbers are what they are.

[lelectra26]

Let's show a little more respect for our elders? Something this country decidedly lacks. My 82 year old mother and my 89 year old father both voted for Obama by abstentee ballot so I wouldn't be so sure about your premise.

[allwrite]

I'll second that.
Ridicule not lest yee also be ridiculed.
Or alternately, what goes around comes around.

[heal57]

It's true, unfortunately. If the election were held with just people over 65 years of age, McCain would win by a huge landslide. Also, if the electiion were held for uonly those 18-34 Obama would 'cream' McCain. The young people have to come out in this election to counter the many scared-of-change older voters.

Independent for Obama/Biden '08

[liseworks]

where's my rockin' chair .....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[ORSunshine]

I heard a woman who claimed she was in her mid-60's or so on NPR this morning say that she wanted to vote for someone who had lived through the experiences she had lived through. While I think it is important that one understands the lessons of history, I don't think it's necessary for a person to have LIVED through the lessons of history.

But, with that mindset, of course the Fogies are for McCain.

[TallGrrl]

WTF does she mean "lived through the experiences she had lived through"?
What a stupid reason to vote for someone.
SHE'S a "Fogie".
I know people in their 60s-70s who are staunch Republicans and are voting for Obama because of his ideas and the way he's handled himself throughout this campaign.

[R.W. Sanders - Huffpost Blogger]

apparently i qualify as a fogie as i just turned fifty five. i have voted absentee for obama. i know many "fogies" who will also vote obama. several are in the ozarks, a pretty heavy republican bastion. however, i agree that your understanding of history is more complete if you have lived through it. i don't count that as a qualification to be president. but discount having lived through history if you want, but make up your mind after you have actually lived through some. no one who had to hide under their desk in grade school because you were having an atomic bomb attack drill will agree with you. you just can't imagine that kind of fear, you must experience it. i too was young once and somewhat flippant about my elders, but i also recognized the wisdom that their experience represents.

[USA1776]

The Ford Motor Company and local Ford dealerships are advertising in rotation on Fox News and particularly Sean Hannity's show. Please join me in support of our United Auto Worker's who endorse Barack Obama. Let's contact Ford in Michigan and our local dealerships and urge they pull their advertising on Fox News.

[feo]

Hey, this Detroiter wants everyone to buy a nice new car, even those of the far right wing.