From here on in to Election Day, I will present the viewing numbers of FoxNews versus the viewing numbers of the combined CNN/MSNBC audience on a week by week basis as an indication of voting trends. For simplicity's sake, I presume Fox viewers to be Republicans and CNN/MSNBC viewers as Democrats.
On that presumption, last week we showed Obama leading McCain by 2% in total viewing, but with a far greater lead, about 60-40 with younger viewers. Obama, this week, has solidified those numbers and now leads McCain 53.5% to 46.5% in total viewers watching, a 7 point lead. His demographic lead is also gaining. He has 62.3% of 25-54 year old voters, 65% of 18-49 year old voters, and an astounding 70.8% of viewers 18-34.
It is apparent that McCain's strength among those 55 and older is the only thing that keeps him in the race among those people watching cable television news. It's time to note that the television audience is much older than the general population. That might predict better things for Obama, because if all the 18-34 year olds vote the way in the same proportion to the Nielsen television audience, he'd have an easy victory. On the other hand, if the young McCain voters just don't bother to watch television, he'd have a much tougher time.
I think the race the race is much closer than any of the polls indicate; the only thing I'm certain of is that fogies are still for McCain.
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