Offshore Oil: What Would Sun Tzu Do?

President Bush is mounting an election-year initiative to end the federal ban on offshore drilling and oil exploration in ANWR. While high prices at the pump making any panacea attractive, drawing down those resources now irrevocably weakens America's long-term strategic resource positioning without even the benefit of a price break at the pump. Let's keep our oil safe in the ground or under our oceans for the time in the future when the price of oil is, well, nationalized and, hence, priceless.

Petroleum is a finite resource and, as such, will one day not be available on the open market. And after that, it will not be available at all. In 1998, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah pronounced
that "The oil boom is over and will not return." Estimates of when the world will reach peak production vary widely -- many experts say that it is occurring right now. But clearly, at some point in the foreseeable future, the world's oil wells will not meet demand -- not just for energy but also for industrial agriculture -- for food production! Long before oil disappears, prices will skyrocket and the world's oil-producing fields will be nationalized for domestic consumption. Hopefully, renewable energy options will mature by then - but right now that is somewhat speculative. Now, you have to ask yourself, if your sitting on a reservoir of oil in your own backyard why would you possibly tap into that resource while prices are relatively low and you can still buy oil on the open international market?

Even as we must turn our full attention to developing renewable energies, petroleum will remain a baseline requirement for industrial and post-industrial economies. It's not an optional commodity and future conflicts will almost certainly be fought over access to oil. We need only look back for examples. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was a response to U.S. actions blocking their access to oil fields in the South East Asia, which they desperately needed to fund their economic and imperial agenda. Regardless of one's position on our Iraqi adventure, it's clear that access to oil was a primary, if largely unspoken, justification.

Forget for the moment the environmental concerns that Bush and McCain are willing to ignore. We must demand that our leaders consider America's long-term strategic interests. We must demand that they factor the real politick questions implicit in our use of resources -- "shouldn't the last drop of oil on earth be drilled in the United States? Shouldn't that be our goal?" If that is so, we must not drill our oil now. Japan had to initiate a hopeless war seventy years ago because it desperately needed oil and could not buy it. America must hold onto its oil so that we aren't forced into the same mistake.

President Bush and John McCain base their oil policy on two pillars -- buy more oil to add to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and to open coastal areas and/or ANWR to drilling. The SPR is located at four underground sites in the Gulf of Mexico and contains 727 million barrels of oil - or a mere 58 day stockpile based on the current rate of consumption and import. This supply amounts to no more than a shield against a temporary disruption in worldwide oil markets. In the permanent oil pinch to come, this will amount to nothing more than a drop in the bucket.

The prudent course is to protect our true Strategic Petroleum Reserve -- which is not located along the Gulf Coast. Our true Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the untapped oil fields in ANWR and along our others coasts. While we should continue to explore new oil fields on American territory and develop the means to safely extract it, accessing these resources now is a grave mistake -- it won't lower the cost that we pay at the pump and squanders a resource that - one day soon, we won't be able to buy elsewhere. Let's conserve our only true petroleum reserve.

Comments

[texfly]

Subjugating the enemy's power without fighting is the true pinnacle of excellence. Sun-Tzu

The enemy's power over us is our gluttony for oil. In the '70s and 80's we had two tastes of our addiction and failed to act. Now, the Iraq war for oil is wasting of our shih (strategic energy). We are threatened more today by our dependence on oil than on the vacuous terrorists. It is time to change our path. The first step is battery-powered vehicles with on-board recharge generators. Target large metro areas with high populations of commuters and city-by-city implement small 100 mpg electric vehicles. Small 2 and 4-seat models could be replacing the commuter fleet of cars within a year. They are already manufactured albeit without the on-board generators (adding a generator. would be trivial) . Little or no R&D, minimal development and jobs will abound, the middle class can be reborn, our addiction to oil will be broken, our national security will be enhanced, our economy will boom. By targeting cities 1-after-another the training required for large vehicle to share (or separate) lanes with the smaller vehicles would be rapid since they will be deployed in large numbers rapidly. The technology exists to make such cars NOW. We just lack the will. Flexibility of will is easier than making war.

[DRaymond]

It has always struck me as completely illigical the thinking that the way to face peak oil is to pump as much of the remeining resources as quickly as possible. The only possible result of that scenario is to bring the time of crisis sooner and make it more severe. Yet that is what they keep proposing.

I have no doubt that there will come a time when the reserves under ANWR and the outer continental shelf will be too crucial to further postpone. But that time is not now. What we need to be doing now is developing the alternative fuels that will postpone and soften the crunch.

[drkazmd65]

"The clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy's will to be imposed on him."
- Sun Tzu

This is mistake one by 'us' - the American citizenry. We have allowed President Georgie and his passel of corporate crooks to frame all of the arguements, to set the tone, and to provide us with only the options they want us to make.

I agree with the author, and with NL207 - the oil IN the ground (or oil shales) is the real strategic reserve for our country's economic future. But the longer we can leave either source in the ground without having to desperately and inefficently extract it, they stronger our long-term position will be.

We (the electorate) need to make individual choices within the framework of energy conservation and weaning ourselves off of oil as a primary source of transportation energy. If "We The People" drive both the market and the Government this direction, they will follow us.

The trick - having some critical mass of us get together and agree (more or less) that it needs to get done.

[NL207]

"Our true Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the untapped oil fields in ANWR and along our others coasts"

The author of this statement is a colossal ignoramus. Our true strategic reserves are the 2 Trillion bbls of recoverable oil thought to lie in the kerogen deposits of the western oil shales, enough oil to power the US at current consumption rates for close to 275 years.

[writeaway]

Whether its ANWR or shale or coal, it has always been my opinion that we should save whatever energy resources are available and use oil from other countries. In the ten years or so that it would take to get ANWR/coastal energy available, we should be able to develop alternative ways to fuel cars, trucks and airplanes. Better fuel mileage for cars/trucks would go a long way in reducing energy dependency on foreign sources. Removing the oil men from government will be a good step in that direction. Why do Bush/Cheney hate America? Its the American middle class that they despise, you know, the ones who do all the work, pay most of the taxes and fight all the unnecessary military actions. In his seven years, Bush has managed to sell out much of American business to foreigners awash in American dollars.

[research]

2 trillion? Fantasy. Maybe 2 Billion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve

Solar and wind are the cheapest fastest way out of this mess.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/users/profile/research

[drkazmd65]

Well put NL207,... although I would argue that both the reserves you point out AND the oil and gas on the continental shelves and in ANWR are part of our real strategic reserve.

IF we can ramp up real conservation of our fuel use and drive down importation needs, then we can subsist on the total reserves for a long time to come.

[IntrepidReader]

I have been convinced for years that this is our government's policy, no matter what any administration says publicly--to drink up everyone else's oil and hang on to our own.

No matter how many times I hear the accusation that environmentalists and Democrats have held us back from tapping these resources, I find it hard to imagine that anyone truly believes that if the Republicans had really wanted it done any time in the last 7 years, that they would be stymied in their plans by the Democrats in Washington, who are absolutely known to cave on nearly every issue. I think they treat us to a dog and pony show where they appear to battle over it with both sides playing their parts to perfection and no intention of allowing these reserves to be used.

[joebiz]

Well, isn't the positioning in Iraq just what the Art of War ordered? The US has invaded Iraq, in part, to control access to oil. The invasion/war in the region has put the Arab OPEC states on check and on notice that we are able to control the third largest oil reserves in the world, and ultimately dictact terms of use. Sun Tzu called it winning the war without fighting.

As a consequence, OPEC has retaliated by cutting output and thuscreating demand and hence price skyrocketing. A zero-sum game on a global scale. Ultimately, the US is best positioned for success. In the long run, a fascist, royal theocracy(ies) will never out-maneuver and win a war against a Western democracy like the US.

[FatherWolf]

I think you have it backwards. The oil producers are more in control of oil prices than ever before.

The fiasco in Iraq shows what a horrible mess we get into when we try to physically control a source of oil.

Everybody knows we won't try it again for a long, long time.

[noneIn2008]

Interesting approach. Stop pumping our oil and pump OPEC dry. Let them use their proceeds to buy US buildings and companies. Then when they run out of oil, nationalize all their assets in the US. Maybe we can get something for nothing?

[KillTheMessenger]

That's an idea not unlike to the one where we can all destroy Exxon by not buying gas at their stations. Sounds good. You go and try. I am watching your back.

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

Sun Tzu would drive a solar car. Duh.

[jvarga]

CNN is streaming an energy independence hearing from the Senate right now. It's been pretty interesting so far. Among other things, apparently in 2007 texas added 25,000 megawatts of wind power.

[jvarga]

Strategic long term thinking will probably be lost on most of us, you realize. In general we get stuck on "no its bad" or "yes its good", so thinking about 100 or 150 years from now is unimaginable.

[dexxjones]

yes, but our politicians arent thinking of america. they are thinking of the poor oil companies. that is where things get scary.

[seawolf77]

Finally some one speaking sense on this blog,. Very good article. It is time to start discussing the oil depletion protocol. What that says to a stunned world is that oil production has peaked, while demand is surging, and it's time to start talking rationally about who gets what and to heck with letting the market decide. This is life and death.If you want to drive around in a Escalade , you pay 4 times what the guy driving a Vespa scooter. $16 a gallon vs $4. You want to air condition your Phoenix home, you pay 4 times what the guy in Ashville pays. It is time to highly penalize all forms of waste. You want to make windmills or photovoltaic with that enrgy, you get it cheap. You want to make a yatch, you pay thru the nose. It is time to reformulate the world, to revalue everything now that cheap energy is gone. Sugar cane based ethanol is the only biofuel PROVEN to work on a national scale with existing infrastructure. Brazil is the model. Use it.

[timm0]

The problem with your recommendation is that it is rational and logical. That is to say, it's an irrelevant process for this administration to consider.

This specific situation is actually the smoking gun I've been looking for that definitively proves that this administration's aim is to enrich its corporate allies in every way possible. Selling out the future for near term profit (10 plus years from now) to oil industry operatives is the only benefit. There is NO other possible benefit to be had - none. "Long term" considerations mean absolutely nothing to these pigs.

And even if you COULD pull some of the oil out next Thursday, how will that lower the price for a gallon of gas?