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Richard Brodsky

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Santorum and Romney: What's That About?

Posted: 02/10/2012 1:58 pm

When the Republican field assembled last year, the early handicapping put Rick Santorum at the very bottom. A one-term Senator from Pennsylvania, he had been trounced in his for re-election campaign, had a string of hard, angry insensitive quotes about various groups he didn't like, had no money, and wasn't a skilled debater. Everyone dismissed him, including Mitt Romney.

So Tuesday he sweeps Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado, again upsetting the conventional analyses that had Romney sweeping toward inevitable victory. He's now won more states than any candidate. Something is up. 

The easy, and sensible, reason has more to do with Romney's failures than Santorum's virtues. After all the Republican electorate has rushed from Bachmann to Perry to Cain and to Gingrich only to fall back into the arms of the best-looking, best coiffed, and toothiest candidate, Mitt. There's clearly a deep distrust of Romney that's kept him at around a third of Republican voters, while the others divide the remaining two-thirds. Part of that is a strategic choice: Mitt chose to run against Obama rather than appeal to the hard-right base. Part of it is history: He really was pro-choice and pro-health care mandate at one time and that's tough to explain to the Tea Party. 

Campaigns are designed to work around such problems and Mitt probably can do so, just like Clinton or Reagan did. But there's something else at work, on a deeper level, that explains both Romney's weakness and Santorum's strength

Here's where Rick has the advantage over Mitt:

  • "Authenticity": What Rick has projected is a sense that he is an authentic and grounded person. He ideas may be inadequate, his statements hurtful, his vision of America narrow, but that's what he actually believes. It comes from a set of core values, and the rest is tactics. Mitt has never been able to do that, and doesn't seem to have tried. And that disconnect, that gap between the two men, is probably the reason for Santorum's resurgence.

  • Biography: Rick's personal story reinforces that advantage. He is from blue-collar, Roman Catholic roots. He has dealt with the profound difficulty of a very sick child with grace and sincerity. He's been consistent, even when he's been wrong. As the Republican contest matures and the electorate peers into the eyes of each candidate, Santorum looks back with more clarity and authenticity than Mitt will ever be able to generate. 

That may not be enough, in the real world of presidential politics, and won't be enough in a general election. But for now, it is an almost insuperable problem for Mitt and the Republican establishment. It turns out that in the world of Super PACs and Citizen United and attack ads and infinite debates, voters are still willing and able to ask questions about character that can turn elections on their head.



Here's where Mitt trumps Rick:


  • Money: Romney has far and away the most money of any Republican candidate out there.

  • Organization: Romney has been "in the states" longer than anyone, which goes back to his bigger war chest.

These disadvantages count a great deal. Rick has a narrow opening, and it would be a mistake to do what worked on Tuesday and hope it works again. 

A long-shot candidate needs bold strokes, risky strokes.  Break out of the routine of the campaign. Meet with the NAACP. Show up at a Romney staged event. Pick a vice president.  Get Palin to endorse.  In the midst of this somewhat shaky list of options is something that will work.  But charm and sincerity won't be enough to beat Mitt.
 
The Republican campaign is increasingly being conducted in a small echo chamber, between candidates and a very narrow slice of the American people. That longer it goes on the more it will limit the chances of victory in November. But, even in these circumstances, it's heartening to see voters see through a lot of what campaigns are about and to remind the political class that character and authenticity matter. Now let's see if Rick can make the next move, and clinch the deal.

 

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12:30 PM on 02/14/2012
As a former Republican I can say without a doubt that the party has lost it's way. The so-called party of small government is the one most likely to interfere in your daily life for no reason and the one most likely to pass laws controlling your every thought. The Christian right in the US has hijacked the party for it's own agenda which is why only the fringe idiots are running this year.
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PG13
08:02 PM on 02/13/2012
things are going to heat up according to polls. Santorum leads in Michigan, Mitt leads in Arizona while Newt leads in Georgia.

Remember that in March, there lots of Southern states in play and that is where Newt is banking his money.

This is gonna get dragged until the convention and we Liberals will be happy
Jack Canuckski
Canadian Observer of the passing scene
04:00 PM on 02/12/2012
It appears to me that the Republicans are a party that have fallen thru the rabbit hole and are now in "Alice in Wonderland" territory. The extreme right-wing reactionaries have taken over the party, pushing all the candidates further and further away from what has always been mainstream America politically. They have moved so far right that birth control has become controversial to the party.
It appears to me that this is a party that is clearly operating in the self-destruct mode.
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tnanimation
03:17 AM on 02/13/2012
They are heading straight over the abyss, the edge of the abyss is in November of this year. Barring any truly catastrophic and stupid moves by Obama and the Democratic party, it will be an absolute wipeout, with Republicans on the outside looking in. They've created and live in such a bubble that they can only hear the sound of their own voices.
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06:57 PM on 02/11/2012
Let's hope that "narrow" slice gets narrower and narrower.
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demisfine
Often correct, NEVER right.
06:23 PM on 02/11/2012
It is ridiculous that Santorum is even being considered as the GOP headliner.
The man lost his seat in congress by 17%.
He can't even carry his own state.
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rmax53
http://obamaachievements.org
03:44 PM on 02/11/2012
This article could be summed in three words: Anyone but Mitt.

"That longer it goes on the more it will limit the chances of victory in November."

That's my hope (and you can keep the change).
01:26 PM on 02/11/2012
Santorum is the one authentic guy in the GOP that say things in public that most of the others will only say in private. Having said that, I would be very surprised to see him get the nomination.
Meanwhile Mr. "Say Anything" Romney will probably end up getting the nod after much further contentious and brutal mud slinging and possibly a brokered convention thanks to either Gingrich or Paul. Whoever wins it the Dems will have fantastic highlight reels of rediculous quotes.
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chuckgoodcat
retired / disabled
12:07 PM on 02/11/2012
A conservative , a moderate and a liberal walk into a bar . The bartender looks up and says Hi Mitt.
CognitoErgoSum
CogitoErgoSum was taken when I signed up.
02:45 AM on 02/12/2012
And what would a Mormon be doing in a bar?
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tnanimation
03:19 AM on 02/13/2012
Mitt would do that to get the alcoholic vote.
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vogonpoet42
Illegitimus Non Carborundum
12:56 PM on 02/13/2012
Pretending to be something he's not. Mitt tends to do that.
12:05 PM on 02/11/2012
Conspiracy theory? The Republican establishment understand that none of their current crop of Presidential candidates can win in a general election. They also know during the primary race they need to pander to the far right to keep the Tea-publicans from going rogue and running a third party candidate. So what if all those behind the scenes pulling the strings of these puppets are doing so to get their message out and just planning on hanging all of them out to dry. Allowing this group of misfits and "Wanna bees" to cheer for their causes, take the heat and ridicule, and get their portion of the GOP fired up, may only be cover for the real presidential bid. If they can go to Tampa without a winner then they can chose a candidate without all the baggage that all of the current group of clowns has. The current group of candidates will have gotten the message out to each of their portion of the party (especially the "flat world believers"). The GOP then could pick a fairly unknown candidate (or at least a candidate with broad appeal from just not having to much to dislike), that would have little to target, would not have all the baggage of the primary race, would not be beholden to any specific donor or segment of the party, and would have the dexterity needed to run in the general. Could the Democratic Party be being set up to be blind sided?
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lizt
former Army officer/lifelong liberal/pdx biker
08:55 PM on 02/11/2012
No, the republican really is this bizarre right now. It's not a set up for Democrats. When President Obama was elected the GOP seemed to lose their collective minds. They are going further and further to the right while the rest of reality-based America looks on in amazement.
CognitoErgoSum
CogitoErgoSum was taken when I signed up.
02:40 AM on 02/12/2012
Rachel Maddow calls it "Obama Derangement Syndrome."
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tnanimation
03:21 AM on 02/13/2012
Sounds like some very wishful thinking on your part.
08:58 AM on 02/13/2012
The wish is they would choose one of the existing Key Stone cops. Not only from the entertainment value, but in the general it would be like playing T'ball.
01:23 AM on 02/15/2012
No wishful thinking needed. The current gaggle of contenders have no chance. The only hope the Tea-publican party has to survive now for the future is to try to not get embarrased too much. Their best bet is to run someone who will not embarass them when they lose. Otherwise they will lose the house, senate, and dog catcher in most districts. They will almost cease to exist for the next 20 years if they do not do this. Works for me though.
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Mitchell Horton
11:38 AM on 02/11/2012
Why not just vote for Ron Paul, who is experienced and sincere?
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SonOfUgh
Your micro-bio is empty
01:41 PM on 02/11/2012
Probably because most of his policies are strange. Ending wars, demilitarising, paroling those convicted of simple possession are good policies. The rest are dangerous, in my opinion.
CognitoErgoSum
CogitoErgoSum was taken when I signed up.
02:41 AM on 02/12/2012
Actually, the current incarnation would regard the ideas you mentioned as dangerous and what your regard as dangerous, they'd regard as endearing.
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lizt
former Army officer/lifelong liberal/pdx biker
08:56 PM on 02/11/2012
Because he's an old man in an ill-fitting suit with unworkable and anti-social ideas. Is that enough of a reason for you?
11:14 AM on 02/11/2012
Gingrich is one of the same Washington good old boys that have allowed American jobs to be rapidly outsourced over the past 15-20 years and Romney's a clown who's been downsizing companies here in the US by sending those jobs to other countries. They’re just giving us more the of same old political rhetoric. Santorum is the only one even talking about bringing manufacturing back to the US.

We need whoever wins to Start Protecting American Jobs and do whatever it takes to bring back the jobs they let go. They've got to give us somebody who will stand up for the American people.

We need to bring manufacturing back to the United States of America and both parties are ignoring tariffs as a way to level the playing field, raise money and bring jobs back home. Let's guess why? - Oh that's right, tariff is a dirty word.

I guess we should keep letting Corp Boards, Wall Street and CEOs promote sending US jobs to countries where they work for slave wages, no benefits, no OSHA safety standards or no real environment regulations. How's that been working for us?
CognitoErgoSum
CogitoErgoSum was taken when I signed up.
02:44 AM on 02/12/2012
It's not so much that tariff is a bad word as the GATT treaty might've tied our hands on some of that.
09:30 AM on 02/12/2012
Well that's a treaty that'll have to go then.
09:32 AM on 02/12/2012
it's merely a long term trend. The future of America lies in high-skilled service sectors - ideas and not grunt work. We have a highly educated workforce, and it is becoming more so. There is less and less reason for companies to have manufacturing based in the US - not only are many jobs being replaced by the engineers and technicians who operate the robots that are replacing the old jobs, but as India and China grow their consumer markets, more and more companies will move their manufacturing bases there to be closer.

The protectionism needed to encourage companies to continue manufacturing in the US will do little in the long term. Here in Australia they just stopped giving the Aluminium smelters subsidies that were in place for about 20 years. As soon as the rebate stops, they are threatening to shut down. They haven't invested, they haven't planned, they just milked the govt dry. The key to getting America working again isn't redistributing tax dollars to bribe the big manufacturers to stay, the key is to retrain the workforce to work in sectors with a better long term outlook.
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AlteSoldier
My Micro is micro
07:27 AM on 02/11/2012
No one can trust Mitt Romney. Mitt has proved by his actions he will say anything to get elected. Does he really mean what he just said, in practice no!
03:52 PM on 02/10/2012
Interesting Article. I think however that Mitt has more going for him then organization and a hard worked campaign which brought the money in. He has what is perceived as substance amongst Republicans. Perception: He turned the Olympics around and works well with numbers, knows how to make money and make things work. Santorum loves earmarks. No substance and weaker then Romney. He will be attacked now by Gingrich and will probally not stand well, especially if he becomes more arragant then he is. With that said, this has been a primary full of surprises so we will have to see what happens next. Who knows for sure?!!
08:53 AM on 02/11/2012
mitt is UNAMERICAN KEEPS HIS MONEY OF SHORE WHAT IS HE HIDING
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rmax53
http://obamaachievements.org
03:46 PM on 02/11/2012
uh...money?