"I'm really a rude person. I'm enjoying my last time as a rude person," the Philippines' newly-minted President Rodrigo Dutetre promised shortly after winning a bitterly contested elections. "When I become president, when I take my oath of office...There will be a metamorphosis." His Kafkaesque promise, which raised hopes of a transformed rhetoric from the foul-mouthed leader, would soon be put to test.
Duterte relished a global diplomatic debut like none of his predecessors. It was his moment to shine. Barely three months into office, he was slated to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Vientiane, Laos to formally accept the regional grouping's chairmanship, which rotates on an alphabetical basis. (Rather comically, some of Duterte's staunch supporters falsely claimed that their leader was 'elected' to the position because of his sheer popularity and will to power.)
On the sidelines of the summit, which was also attended by global leaders from America, China, Japan, Russia, India, and the United Nations, the Duterte administration scheduled nine bilateral meetings. Without a question, the most anticipated one was with no less than the United States President Barack Obama, who was on his ninth and final trip to Asia.
Just weeks earlier, Duterte ruffled some feathers in Washington when he uttered unflattering remarks about the outgoing American Ambassador Philip Goldberg. And amid Duterte's 'shock and awe' campaign against drugs, liberal hawks within the Washington also began to agitate for more explicit criticism of his human rights record. Tensions were beginning to build in bilateral relations, but the Obama administration constantly emphasised the durable amicability of the alliance.
To be fair, the latest dust up between Duterte and Obama is unlikely to undermine the sound fundamentals of bilateral relations. The Filipino leader has made it clear that he won't scuttle existing bilateral agreement with America, particularly the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which is yet to be ratified by the Philippine Senate. (Although he has -- so far just rhetorically -- asked American Special Forces to exit the troubled region of Mindanao).
Nonetheless, there are growing signs that the century-old alliance is heading into a 'new normal', wherein bilateral ties are strong but no longer as special and sacrosanct as before. American has to accept the fact that the Philippines has a fiercely independent-minded leader now. The new Philippine government is now seriously considering sourcing military hardware from unconventional sources: Russia and China. He has also called off, for now, joint patrols with America in contested waters in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, Duterte is planning his much-anticipated state visit to Beijing, a remarkable departure form his predecessors, who mostly, almost by tradition, chose Washington as they first diplomatic destination.
Rocking the Boat
When Obama was asked about his upcoming meeting with Duterte, he made it crystal clear that human rights issues would be front and center. This may have ticked off his Filipino counterpart, who couldn't help himself from uttering expletives when he was, shortly before attending the summit, asked about his scheduled meeting with the American leader.
For the fiercely independent-minded Duterte, America was interfering in his country's domestic affairs. Shortly after, the bilateral meeting was called off, when Obama questioned whether there could be any 'productive' exchange with the controversial leader. Soon presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump chipped in, turning a diplomatic incident into a domestic political issue.
The American president was just recovering from another embarrassing incident in China, where he was denied a red carpet stairway upon his arrival, while watching American reporters manhandled by Chinese security officials on the tarmac. In fairness, the Philippine government, worried about a potential diplomatic meltdown, immediately released a statement of clarification, expressing the sincere 'regret' of the Filipino president about his remarks. Duterte also clarified that he wasn't directly insulting the American leader. The Obama administration, in turn, clarified that bilateral relations are still 'rock solid' and there is no point for concern.
Obama himself reassured everyone that he didn't take the insults personally, and is well aware of Duterte's unorthodox habits and manner of speaking. So everyone began to heave a sigh of relief. But just when everyone thought that the dust was settled, the Filipino president (once again) went off-the-script and embarked on an anti-colonial tirade before global leaders attending the East Asia Summit, with Obama in the audience. Duterte reminded everyone about America's historical crimes against Filipino people, dating back to colonial days.
He even showed a picture to prove his point. This was unprecedented, triggering an awkward silence among the audience. Duterte also skipped the ASEAN-US summit, and reportedly there was no shaking of hands with Obama upon the conclusion of the global gathering.
Upon his subsequent visit to Jakarta, Indonesia, Duterte continued to push the envelope, criticising America and its lack of commitment to the Philippines, while praising Chinese assistance to the Philippines. Some began to wonder whether there would be irreversible consequences for bilateral relations, among the oldest and most intimate in human history.
Though immensely popular at home, the Dutetre administration couldn't shield itself from domestic criticism too. With Obama stepping down from office in coming months, and given the sheer breadth of complementarity in bilateral strategic interests, the two allies are in a great position to restore good will and avoid any downward spiral in diplomatic ties.
New Horizons
Interestingly, Duterte's meeting with fellow Asian leaders went extremely well. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was eager on maintaining a recently-blossoming relationship with Manila, went so far as telling Duterte, "Mr President [you are] quite a famous figure also in Japan, and I am very excited to see you in person." Aside from Abe's fan-mode reception, Duterte cordially hobnobbed with fellow ASEAN leaders, including the charismatic Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who accompanied him through and through.
While many ASEAN leaders were scandalized by Duterte's diplomatic tiff with Obama, and the strange hiccup in Philippine-American relations, they nonetheless welcomed his paradoxically dovish position on the South China Sea. Duterte made it clear that unlike his predecessor, Benigno Aquino, he is not going to push the ASEAN towards a collision course with China.
If anything, he didn't even raise The Hague arbitration case, which was expected to be a huge blow to China. Since much of Asia is filled with autocratic regimes and faux democracies, hardly anyone raised concerns over human rights and civil liberties under Dutetre. In short, hardly anything divided them.
Duterte, who will next year oversee the ASEAN as its chairman, was much closer to the regional strategic consensus that his predecessor. The contrast in Duterte's diplomatic chemistry with fellow Asian countries, on one hand, and America and the United Nations, on the other, was too palpable to ignore. The message was clear: The new government in the Philippines isn't in any mood for criticisms from the West, particularly on the human rights front, and is ready to engage its neighbors on practical solutions to practical security and economic problems.
Thus, Duterte signaled his independence as an Asian leader. And as the Philippines' new caudillo, he is indisputably in charge of the country's policy apparatus. This was perhaps also designed to reassure China that his policy in the South China Sea is not influenced by any external power, thus simplifying the matrix of strategic calculations in bilateral negotiations. Nevertheless, reports suggesting Chines plans of constructing dual-purposes facilities on the bitterly-contested Scarborough Shoal put into question whether the two neighbors can ever find a mutually-satisfactory modus vivendi in the South China Sea.
Many Filipinos are impatiently and suspiciously watching China's moves in the area. If negotiations fail to bear dividends within a year or so, it is highly likely that Duterte will double down on relations with America under a new leadership, preferably under Hillary Clinton. For now, however, it is clear that Duterte wants to break off from what some perceive as decades of strategic subservience vis-a-vis America, which is now struggling to build a regional coalition to rein in Chinese assertiveness. It's hard to escape the impression that Beijing is once again in the regional driving seat.
This article was originally published on The National Interest.