Will Veterans Vote Democratic?

The conventional wisdom is that veterans lean heavily to Republican candidates. The conventional wisdom was wrong in 2008 and may have to be revised in the future.

Veterans' political leanings have changed over time. During and after WWII, when veterans were drawn from a broader cross section of society, their votes mirrored the wider body politic. They tended to vote Democratic. This began to change somewhat during the disillusion with the Korean stalemate and the Eisenhower administration but the real change came with the Vietnam war and its aftermath. Those drafted into unappreciated service and the professional officer corps who chaffed at political micromanagement of the war -- from unwise bombing halts to presidential selection of specific targets and even attack routes - turned against LBJ and Robert McNamara. Robert McNamara was the most despised Secretary of Defense until Donald Rumsfeld managed to acquire this dubious honor. After that a weak Carter presidency that included a pardon to those who fled to Canada and an unsympathetic Clinton presidency that mishandled "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" drove military and veteran voters away. At the same time, Ronald Reagan's increased defense budgets and obvious honoring of military service and George H. W. Bush's performance in the Gulf war gained the allegiance of veteran and military voters.

The net result of this is that George W. Bush won 65% of the veteran vote in 2004 against John Kerry. The Swift Boat smears helped Bush achieve this tainted margin and disguised for a time the signs of a change in the pattern. It is likely that the data, if they exist, would show that the high water mark for the Republicans was the Bush "Mission Accomplished"" moment. After that circumstances began to shift the scene. The lack of preparation for the Iraq occupation, the absence of adequate vehicle and body armor, the failure to acknowledge the insurgency, the abysmal conditions at Walter Reed Army Medical Center and the lack of resources to deal with returning veterans all eroded the confidence of veterans in the Bush Administration and especially Mr. Rumsfeld.

There were 125+ million voters in 2008 and according to a national Edison/Mitofsky exit poll approximately 15% of these identified themselves as veterans. This would calculate to a 75% veteran voter turn out that could be a bit on the high side. If the 2004 65/35 split held, McCain would have received about 12 million votes and Obama 6 million. But the poll puts the actual split at 55/45 so McCain received about 12 million votes and Obama 8 million. The data also show that younger veterans favored Obama. Veterans under 45 favored Obama by 51% and those between 45 and 59 went 53% for Obama. The slight majority of veterans (53%) who were 60 and older went for McCain by 61%. This new voting pattern netted Obama a swing of nearly 4 million votes, half his margin of popular vote victory!

This single poll may have a large margin of error but the trends, and the preferences of younger vets are persuasive and there are other indicators. Veterans put together a strong Veterans for Obama organization in Virginia that was assisted by the national veterans effort. Together they launched an intensive drive in the Norfolk/Virginia Beach area. In military and retiree heavy Norfolk, Republicans usually win 60/40. This year, Obama won by 2 votes. Bush won Virginia Beach by 19% in 2004, McCain won by only 3% -- a 16 point swing. A Democrat won the 2nd Virginia Congressional District that includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach by 3.5%, a 7% swing over an already improved 2006 Democratic performance.

It appears that Senator McCain's veteran status was not enough to overcome the Bush Administrations miserable performance in Iraq and in supporting veterans' needs. And on a one-to-one basis, Senator McCain had an undistinguished record supporting veterans as evidenced by his opposition to the New GI Bill of Rights, whereas Senator Obama had been a strong voice for improved veterans care from his position on the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee.

Will this move of veterans' political allegiances toward Democrats continue? The data on younger veterans preferences would seem to indicate so. If the Obama Administration carries through on its promises to keep the nation's sacred trust with our veterans, there is a good chance that the trend will continue and perhaps accelerate with the likelihood that the next Republican presidential candidate will not have a McCain like military biography. The nomination of retired Army Gen. Eric K. Shinseki as the next Secretary of Veterans Affairs relatively early in the Cabinet selection process bodes well for veterans and well for the Democratic Party.

Comments

[rich3324]

As a vet we just want the truth. Bush did not give that to us and McCain was just passing on the same lies. I think you will see the vets of today going more toward Dems.

[Horus45]

I think most veterans are smart enough to realize they will get much better treatment from a Democratic administration.
My father served for 35 years and voted Democratic till the day he died.

[PeterGSW]

I did.

[Freesia2]

I certainly hope so Mr. Klass. Obama won this round, but there will be downticket votes in the near future and a Democratic vote will help shore up the support he needs in congress. (And I say this a registered Independent. It's not about being a cheerleader for the Democratic party per se.)

Of all the issues over the last few years, the one that makes me feel downright ill is the way our soldiers have been treated. Bush oversaw it, but the Republican party supported him in his actions. And those that didn't, didn't really fight their party, either. McCain was going to be a perpetuation of the mistreatment and the proof was there in his record. I wanted Obama for many reasons, but one of the chief ones was that I believed he would oversee our military men and women and support them the way they deserve. No more 7 tours and 6 months of waiting for benefits, dismal military hospitals and soldier's families bearing the brunt.

So I hope the military will give Obama a chance and I believe he will make swinging that lever in the voting booth toward the Ds feel like a good decision. The Republicans may deserve your support again, but they have some soul searching to do first. Don't burden them with public office til they do it.

[Mnemanth]

I'm a veteran, and most certainly voted for the democratic candidate.
Not that I prefer dems over repubes, but that's the dumb system we've all bought into.
The republicans aren't pro-military, they're pro-military-industrial. They create and then feed off of international crisis, while short sheeting service people at every turn.
People of all walks of life are simply the working class, and service people are no exception.

[Hal Donahue - Huffpost Blogger]

Dick, very nice job. This is the type information we must get out. Thanks

[Hank10303]

First to all the Vets that post. Thanks for preserving our country and way of life, even when you are sent to fight and die for an unjust war, you do your job and that is more than enough considering the possible outcomes. Second, we now live in a world where information is easy to acquire. The facts are readily available for anyone with internet access. Knowledge of how the republican party has dismissed concerns for our militaries readiness, effectiveness, and preparedness are clear. We should never send our military into war without every available piece of modern day equipment, a thorough plan and clear goal in mind. Historically that is exactly what republicans have not done. We have increased year after year our defense budget and the money goes to contractors that charge higher and higher prices. As a result a majority of the funds going to the defense department isn't being spent on men and women, needed machinery or supplies but on research and development as well as contract cost. Its time to turn that around. This is not John McCain's belief. He has voted or stood opposed to every GI bill, including the one past in Spring 2008. When it comes to our military McCain has demonstrated "no luv" in his actions and lots of talk in his campaigns.

[Liberal2]

I was a Vietnam era soldier. I won't say "veteran" because I think that should be reserved for those who saw combat. I was in fact "RA", not "US". And combat arms. I just didn't go to 'Nam. Probably because I'm extremely near-sighted and without glasses more dangerous to those around me than an enemy a hundred yards off.

Here's my point...I don't think serving confers any special classification. Regarding Vietnam I respect only those who accepted prison rather than service. Anyone want to say thanks for your service to an 80+ year old German veteran? Nor do I respect the service of soldiers who served the Confederate States of America. The cause one fights for determines the respect one is entitled to.

Americans who joined the Abraham Lincoln Brigade to fight fascism deserve respect. Who thinks of them? And they were condemned as commies andd commie sympathizers. American conservatives actually admired Hitler (see Charles Lindbergh).

Many people who have been in the military believe once a war is started, it must be won even if the cause is wrong. Liberals ask why kill and why die for reasons that have nothing to do with justice. And there's the rub. I use the word justice because I think Bosnia was justified, Iraq is not.

[wheresthebeef]

I'm a veteran and I did, and always have, voted Democratic. Given that the military draws its recruits so heavily from the South, though, it wouldn't surprise me to learn that I'm in the minority, especially among older vets.

[dfranz]

As a veteran i can tell you that I have long been anti Republican because of their stance on veterans. They have treated members of the armed forces as if they are a disposable comodity by forcing repeated stints in Afghanistan and Iraq. At the same time they opposed improvements to the GI Bill and medical facilities needed to treat those wounded, both seen and unseen. It's true that Democratic Presidents initially got us involved in Viet Nam but Nixon was elected on the promise that he would end the war. He managed to keep it going another 6 years only cynically ending it when it was politically favorable to do so. In my opinion the Republicans have shown they have no regard for service people other than how they can be used in a photo op or when they cover themselves with phony patriotism by welcoming the troops home before their next deployment..

[Mnemanth]

Exactly! Thank you!

[Liberal2]

I would point out that yes, Kennedy and Johnson were democrats. But Kennedy was still generally conservative and as a conservative he was very anti-communist.. He also was trying to respond to questions about his "toughness" as a president (which is why he went through with Eisenhower's Bay of Pigs plan) and upped the ante of Eisenhower's introduction of "US military advisors" in South Vietnam.. Johnson was a southern conservative, not a liberal.

[nycveteran]

I agree with Richard's comments above. I just wanted to point out that these numbers and voting records for veterans are pretty much reversed here in New York City, where the total city Dems outnumber Republican by at least 5-1. Good microcosm of how veterans support can be changed.

[UltraClassic]

I think the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps Times papers report otherwise. The service do lean GOP and conservative with the Marine Corps being the most conservative of the four.

They have conducted their own surveys and the results seem pretty much in line with what I experienced in 26 years as a Marine.

[Hal Donahue - Huffpost Blogger]

I believe if you check, the Military Times itself says the poll was very unscientific. As someone who is very involved with veterans and the military, I can tell you that in PA, OH etc the veterans and troops coming home are really beginning to swing Democratic

[Bystander]

Your "poll" sound rather unscientific, Hal. My personal experience with other veterans is that, generally, they don't respect liberals because liberals don't respect them.

I'm an Army veteran. In which branch of the military did you serve?

[Mnemanth]

Please don't buy into "surveys" that you haven't taken part in. I've seen "survey" results throughout my military career that indicate I'm pro-republican, pro-war, pro-Christian, pro- whatever...and I've never seen a single invitation to participate in one of these "surveys".
Propaganda is all they are.