How Hillary Could Turn It Around

The Democratic race keeps tightening, and now CNN reports that Obama has caught up with Clinton in New Hampshire. Most Democratic voters still consider Hillary the most "electable" of all the candidates. But tellingly, CNN reports that "Obama is seen as more likable, more believable and more likely to unite the country." The momentum seems to be turning against Sen. Clinton - but she could turn that around.

There are three possible outcomes to Sen. Clinton's primary campaign: 1) She wins in a way that leaves her well-positioned for the general campaign; 2) She wins, but is in a weak position to take on the GOP candidate; or, 3) she loses.

The primary campaign is clearly changing rapidly. As of now, however, the likeliest outcome appears to be #2, followed by #3. Clinton's "above the fray" approach didn't work. And while her decision to engage Obama made sense, she appeared to do it it ungracefully (preceding an explicit attack on his character with her comment that this is "the fun part").

Worst of all, her emphasis on centrist "triangulation" is backfiring. It alienates some Democrats who want to support her, provides ammunition for her primary opponents, and seems to be convincing the general public of that so-called "Republican talking point" - that she'll do or say anything to win. Triangulation may have been a smart strategy in 1996, but in a country where 71% of voters oppose the war it's a liability.

So can she turn the campaign around and regain the momentum that now seems to be working against her? Probably, if she changes some of her core strategic assumptions. Here are some things that might make a difference:

Drop the 'Anti-Idealism' Tactic

As we wrote recently, her campaign seems to have decided it makes sense to attack her opponents (mostly Obama, but presumably Edwards too) by attacking the Democratic base itself as "self-righteous," "naive," and addicted to "beautiful loserdom."

Bad move. Drop the "Cynicism is Good" rhetoric and try to harness the idealism of core Democrats instead of fighting it. How?

Make Bill Her 'Idealism Ambassador'

Nobody in American politics speaks the language of idealism better than her most underused campaign resource, Bill. It's understandable that she wants to limit Bill's exposure in order to reinforce her own brand, but it's time to use the big guy more effectively.

By having Bill speak to the idealism of Democrats - and Americans as a whole - he can play to his greatest rhetorical strength and evoke memories of his Presidency. Ironically, he'd also be fulfilling the traditional "spouse" role, but at a new and higher level.

Take On Global Warming

Al Gore has just accepted his Nobel Prize. Most Americans believe that global warming exists, and many are in a state of numb existential despair that it will be solved in time to save the planet. So why not make climate change and the environment a core theme? She could apply that "experience" theme to a vast problem, telling voters she's the only one with the skills and knowledge to address it.

Interestingly, she could also use climate change as a 'triangulating' issue by reaching out to 'crunchy conservatives' and evangelicals looking to act as God's stewards of the environment. That would be one hell of a smart way to bring liberals and conservatives together on this critical issue.

Return to Campaign Reform

Early in her campaign Sen. Clinton ,said she would press for publicly-funded elections once she became President. She should return to this theme and hit it hard. Instead of attacking them personally when Obama and Edwards attack her for taking lobbying money, she should ask them if they will join her in pushing for federally-funded national elections.

If they say no, she has outflanked them. If they say yes, she has demonstrated greater leadership on this issue. She can't lose.

Tell More Jokes

It seems ridiculous to have to say this, but she does seem too serious. Voters may be afraid that her Presidency will seem grim and purposeful, without the joyful and inspirational qualities that are part of the President's job as national morale-booster. Have more fun, or seem to, and make it more fun to follow her campaign. The "Sopranos" video was really good. She needs more gestures like that.

Defend Social Security

One area where Clinton clearly seems more progressive and 'Democratic" than Obama is in Social Security reform. Obama's position is hard to defend on substance, and seems to play into GOP talking points. So press the point, by making herself the "defender of Social Security and older Americans."

But take the high road. Those "character" comments only backfire.

Emphasize Her Team's Bench Strength

She's got some strong people behind her. Make some of them more visible, through joint appearances. Sharing a podium or two with Wes Clark, for example, will tell voters that she can bring some smart and experienced people back into leadership roles should she become President.

Share Her Aspirations

Somehow the voters have gotten the impression, rightly or wrongly, that her campaign is based on solely on the pursuit of power. Let people know why she wants to be President. What are her dreams? Her goals? Her deepest motivations?

People don't know what drives her, and until they do those negative perceptions will continue to fester and grow. So why not go on Larry King and tell people why she's willing to go through all the travails and torture of a Presidential campaign one more time?
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She would also need to stake a clear and unequivocal position on winding down the Iraq war and ensuring there are no unprovoked attacks on Iran.

Of course, it remains to be seen if she'll make any of these moves. But if she did, her campaign for the nomination might once again seem unstoppable.

A Night Light
The Sentinel Effect: Healthcare Blog
Future-While-U-Wait
RJ Eskow at the Huffington Post

Follow RJ Eskow on Twitter: www.twitter.com/rjeskow

Comments

[Chuckbutcher]

apparently RJ is suggesting an imaginary Hillary rather than a calculating, triangulating, corporate tool disinterested in being a Democrat. Either that, or maybe just vote for one of the guys (it's a joke ladies).

[taikan]

Eskow writes: "Most Democratic voters still consider Hillary the most "electable" of all the candidates." In fact, most Democratic voters consider Hillary's lack of electability to be one of her biggest problems. Even Eskow seems to acknowledge this, because the rest of this post consists mainly of suggestions that Hillary should stop being Hillary if she wants to win the nomination.

[avergejoe]

interesting you did mention foreign policy or iraq

[ElkoJohn]

`
any guesses as to why Ms. Hillary can't recognize the flaws in her campaign. . . perhaps these flaws reflect the flaws in the person running her campaign.
.

[altohone]

RJ- your claim that Obama's position on SS is hard to defend belies reality.

Raising the cap is far more progressive than raising the retirement age, cutting benefits or increasing the tax... all of which would hurt low and moderate income workers more.

Hillary's "commission" is likely to suggest the regressive measures just as the previous commission did.

[MizLiz]

So she wants to appear more likeable? Notice I said "appear" not "BE". God, anything but that horrid, phony cackle. I don't ever want to hear that again...it's the stuff of nightmares.

[Dap]

Dear Brother RJ,

Sorry, but you are trying to make a leopard change its spots.

If Hillary did the things you suggest, it would only be a *Facade*, not who she is but who she is now pretending to be.

That the problem with Senator Clinton from jump-street she's the "Great Pretender".

One does *NOT* lead by being led.

Senator Clinton will not be an agent for change she is without that innate ability. She's a player not a leader and what We, the People need now, MORE THAN EVER, is a *LEADER*.
Agape.

[xrayman]

Hey RJ,
Is this supposed to be a post that supports Hillary? Or a you bring up all her "flaws" so that we can once again ponder them?

Hillary seems too serious? Only Biden cracks more jokes than Hillary. It is Saint Obama that is deathly serious.

[Ottovbvs]

I'm getting very sceptical about these state polls. Perhaps because I was the subject of one last evening. The samples seem very small, around 325, and the there is a huge disconnect from some of the fundamentals of the national polls which have much larger samples on issues like electability, leadership and experience. For example in the ABC Wapo poll Obama score 8% on electability and in the CBS NYT poll it was 14%. Clinton is in mid to high sixties. Are we being asked to believe that natives of NH or SC are so different from the rest of the country and that a party where less than 20% of them consider him electable is going to make him the nominee. I just don't see it. As for these telephone polls I assume they are largely automated like the one I experienced and it was a joke. We'll see only another thirty days to go before IA and NH are over.

[Republicnotademocracy]

It's going to be fun watching the battle between Hillary and Rudy, America's Mayor.

Unfortunately, it will make no difference which one is elected as they are two peas in a pod.

[heckleNjeckle]

To sum up, then, Hillary Clinton can turn it around by acting more like Mike Gravel.

Huh!

[Openeyes]

So the short answer is - run as someone else?

The only observation you make that is correct is that triangulation doesn't work (then why suggest it as a strategy?)

1. "Anti-Idealism" - As the Dem base becomes increasingly progressive, she becomes increasingly disdainful of it. That's not likely to change since she is not a progressive, trying to change it now will look like pandering. Idealims implies ideals - she has none in common with the base (if she has any at all).

2. "Bill as Ambassador" will make her look like she can't win primaries without him, like he is running not her - won't work.

3. "Global warming" - triangulating won't work, and she is far too corporately connected and sympathetic to look even remotely sincere about this - too many ties to big energy corps, manufacturers, wall street, etc. Experience? as what, a one term Senator, so she'll handle things better than Biden or Dodd who have decades more "experience"?

4. "Campaing reform" - push for public money whle raking in lobbying money? That will really make her look sincere and not duplicitous. She won't outflank anyone or show leadership that way, it will look completely cynical and disenguous.

5. "Tell more jokes" - wasn't the chatty-kat­hy-pullstr­ing-laugh of a few weeks ago on Sunday press shows excruciating enough for you? She can't do humor because she's humorless.

6. "Defend S.S." - will never happen, she's too willing to follow Wall Street and "privatizing" it.

7. "Empahsize the bench" - wrong timing. The bench now is for the campaign, not the cabinet. Those folks come much later.

8. "Share her aspirations" - her sole aspiration is to be President. She's already shared it.


Hopefully she will follow each of your suggestions - she'll go down in a bigger ball of fire than the Hindenberg. We don't need Republican-lite in the White House.

[DameLiz]

Senator Clinton is the only experienced and prepared candidate to become President. It is important to have unusual intelligence - genius brain etc. It is essential to have smart genes in order to straighten out the catostrophic mess that the Republicans have created once again. How many more times are the democrates expected to correct mistakes? All the Republicans seem to achieve is to start wars, wreck the economy, orchestrate Wall Street. Republicans cannot govern! History repeats itself. In 1939 Hitler invaded Poland and the U.S. invaded Iraq - not once but twice. The Supreme Court removed democracy but stopping the Fed Pres Vote Count and thereby installing a person totally incompetent. The Supreme Court should have a atime limit. Each member should not serve more than 10 years. End of Msg.

[AchievePeace]

The reason Hillary is sliding is that her campaign hasn't figured out that the way she is going to get elected is to have broad appeal with the female electorate. Men are not going to elect Hillary - any attempt to try to win them over in large numbers is a waste of time. Sexism is alive and well in the U.S. She can sound tough, but men will not buy into her as Commander In Chief, no matter how hawkish she appears to be - and it hurts her with her core constituency - women.

Her current problem is that she is not trusted and liked by college educated women - she better use that polling power to find out how to convince them to vote for her and what appeals to them right now. She also needs to get more women leaders endorsing her - women who have accomplished a lot and are respected by other women - she doesn't need Hollywood celebrities out there with her.

[jakibaez]

When the public wakes up to see Michelle Obama as the first lady, I hope they can get use to seeing her without that net on her hair. Everybody makes fun of the way Hillary looks, her fat ankles or as in the past, thick eye glasses. Now, why don't I hear or see cartoon about he Obama family? Why, because you are all a bunch of cowards and are like the those "white cops" that film every arrest due to "racist" lawsuits. Get some courage, american people! This is not the 50s. Black americans also have flaws. Show Obama's flying ears and skinny necks, show Michelle's sour pus face on the campaign! I have never seen so many cowards in the media and in the public! It is okey to make fun of the first lady and senator of New York, it is okey to make fun of our President Bush, but make fun of Obama! No- it is racist!!!!!!