The Lonnnggg Vice Presidential Selection Waiting Game

Don't expect to find out very soon WHO will be the running mates for Obama or McCain, unless...

Will Barack choose Hillary to be his running mate, or Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, or NM Gov Bill Richardson, AZ Gov Janet Napolitano or less likely but talked about potential match-ups Chuck Hagel or Sam Nunn?

Will Joe Lieberman run with McCain... or Condi Rice, or Mitt Romney , TX senator Kay Bailey Hutchison or Maine senator Susan Collins?

It is highly likely that we will not find out for a lonnnggg time, even though the mainstream media are working the story for the drama it contains, with the built up enmity between Barack or, purportedly, Michelle and Hillary.

The thing is, both campaigns have good reason to wait as long as possible before making a decision. If either campaign chooses a female VP running mate, it puts pressure on the other to do the same.

McCain, with his party's convention held later, definitely has an advantage on this. It is highly likely that Obama will decide first. Once Obama makes his decision, the McCain campaign will be able to choose a VP who can potentially neutralize the Obama ticket demographically.

It is more likely that McCain will go with a white female than a black. The Republican base -- those former southern democrats who left the party after LBJ signed the equal rights amendment -- would have a very hard time dealing with a black. (Yes. I think that too many of them are racists.) That probably rules out Condi. It might put senators Kay Bailey Hutchison (TC) or Susan Collins (ME) or CT governor M. Jodi Rell in play.

The 2008 Democratic National convention runs August 25-28, after the summer Olympics have ended. That's when we'll find out who will be the Democratic Vice presidential candidate and not before.

The 2008 Republican National convention runs September 1-4. That's when McCain will announce his pick, with the advantage of knowing who Obama has chosen.

One thing is highly likely-- if Obama picks a female, whether Hillary or not, McCain will almost be forced to include one on his ticket.

Another thing that's sure is the networks, anchors and pundits will burn up millions of dollars worth of airtime discussing who the VPs will be. They'll interview possible candidates. They'll unsuccessfully ask the presidential candidates and their surrogates. But this year, we won't get an answer until late August, unless... Obama and Hillary decide to kiss and make up. Then, it is likely that, to maximize the healing, the announcement will come early on.

Once Obama makes his choice, McCain will want to announce his ASAP, to maximize his momentum.

But the other possibility is that Hillary will wait, that she'll sandbag the Democratic party, refusing to concede defeat, even after Obama attains the requisite number of delegates, hoping that something will happen that costs Obama the nomination

That's the scenario I think is most likely, which puts us back into late August to see the VP selections revealed. It's going to be a long, (pundit) hot-air summer.

Want to play around with potential VP candidates? Here's a website that let's you select criteria like red/blue state, religion, gender, area of the US, experience and then you see who comes up.

crossposted from OpEdNews.com

Comments

[KarateKid]

Please, John......choose Joe Lieberman and take that smug, disgraceful traitor off our hands. Pretty please. He's going to lose his committee chair in November anyway; we'd just as soon see that "I" turn to "R".

[oafishcad]

Quayle, Lieberman. Some VP choices either sink a candidacy or harm it. Please Obama, think it over. If Gore had chosen a better VP, he might have won.

[michiganfan]

Very true. Lieberman has always been a big enemy of Hollywood, one of the Dems' best sources of support and enthusiasm. Hollywood gave only lukewarm support to Gore/Lieberman. Full support from Hollywood could have easily made a difference.

If Gore had chosen a better running mate, the world would most likely be a much better place today.

(Admittedly, Lieberman was just one of many mistakes that could have turned the election.)

[DennyCrane]

There's a new story floating around that Huckabee is McCain's top choice. But of course, he'll wait for Obama to make his pick before setting on someone. And no doubt, Obama's choice will influence who McCain picks. Assuming Hillary drops out after June 3rd, Obama will be under pressure to offer her the VP spot. I seriously doubt (and hope) he will. If he does, it won't happen early. He will wait until the last possible minute, when he's convinced that there's no other candidate who would heal the rift or appeal to Hillary supporters. Another reason to wait is to see if her supporters get over her loss and decide to accept Obama. That'll take time, but we have plenty of it til August. If he does pick Hillary or some other female candidate, that might force McCain to pick one as well. Condi comes with too much baggage. She ties McCain to Bush even more. Plus, many Republicans may not want to a black on the ticket. It would also prevent the GOP from appealing to voters' racism to defeat Obama. So if it's a woman, she'll be white.

[nikto]

My VP list:

#1--Howard Dean (yeah, I know, fat chance)

#2--Senator Jim Webb (fairly likely)

#3--Bill Richardson (although I think he's a natural for Sec Of State)

[faust2001]

Oh, and you forgot that since our elections are rigged now, it doesn't matter.

[loper2008]

Obama should pick Sebelius. She is strong on the economy/education. She is Catholic and her father was governor of Ohio.

[numbnuts]

I was for Hillary when all this started.
Thru the Primary's I have listened.
I know in my own heart thru her actions and words who Hillary really is.
I have listened to Barack and thru his actions and words I have become a Barack believer.
I have faith that he will pick the right person.
Whomever that person is. He will make the right choice.
I have faith it won't be Hillary.

[jimdarling]

Clark or Edwards seem the best choices to me. Clark would be an olive branch to the Clinton camp, and counteract McCain's militaristic appeal. Edwards has wisely refused to endorse, and plays well to the white working-class crowd Obama struggles with.

Side note: what's with people suggesting Rice as McCain's VP? Republicans need independants too, and she certainly isn't getting them on board, not to mention, sadly, that she'd probably put West Virginia back into contention.

[oafishcad]

Even if McCain picked Rice, she wouldn't draw the black vote away from Obama. And any woman who supported Hillary who switched to McCain because of a woman VP never supported Hillary, just the Idea of a woman in power rather than a man, In other words, they're sexists.

[Moose49]

Not to mention that she oversaw the most disastrous foreign policy of any president in decades, maybe ever.

[Paul]

The Gov of Ohio as VP probably makes the most political sense for Obama.

Sen Webb of Virginia would be a good choice as well - he has Dept of Defense credentials.

McCain might as well go with Condi Rice - he could tout this as change. And if he wins, the Black Congressional Caucus could always send a steady stream of blonde lobbysts to the White House in hopes of McCain either suffering a heart attack or getting killed by his wife...

[section9]

People, Barack won't choose Chuck Hagel. Hagel would be run out of our party if he did that. Besides, do you realize how many Dems would be ticked off at Barack if he passed up someone like Eddie Rendell for a Republican from the prairie?

Don't be stupid.

[LittleBrother]

Ed Rendell?

He'll lease Arlington National Cemetery to Forest Lawn, and raze the Lincoln Memorial for space to build a casino.

Fast Eddie is all about the revenue stream.

[section9]

Obama is almost certain to pick Jimmy Webb. Helps him get Virginia, plus Webb has combat experience.

I actually believe that McCain will gravitate back to Condi. Rice is popular with the Republican rank and file. We know that the Democratic base hates her, but that just helps McCain with his choice. She's popular among independents and helps McCain pass the "Dick Cheney" test for VP's.

He can't afford to pick an unknown lightweight just because the Movement Conservatives want him to Get Right with the Base. This is not that kind of election. Especially after last night's loss in MS-01 (Thank you, A$$-Clown RNC! Take a bow, clueless John Boehner!).

McCain is the one who has nothing to lose in this cycle. He'll be 20 points down going into his convention, which will be right after Obama's Acceptance speech. It's going to be ugly. He'll need to throw the long ball. That's Condi.

[laksa]

I like the idea of Hagel as Obama's VP

[iowacorn]

boy.. i have to agree.. i think HAGEL wud be and excellent choice..

[sufi66]

Please no more Clintons or Doles or Bushes or Kennedys. We elect people once. Does this mean we have to elect the name over and over again?

Is there evidence that they do much good for the average voter?

[oafishcad]

Just when it was Roosevelt.

[Moose49]

My choices in order of preference:

Jim Webb
Kathleen Sebelius
Bill Richardson
Wesley Clark
Ted Strickland

Lots of other good ones out there too, like Brian Schweitzer, Sherrod Brown, Russ Feingold, Janet Napolitano, Bob Graham.

Just don't pick Sam Nunn -- too conservative, too corporate, too establishment, has no natural voting constituency -- and don't pick Evan Bayh -- too DLC. And don't pick Hillary and have to spend the next eight years wondering what she's doing to undermine the president.

[Paris68]

RE: Graham and Webb. Graham is too old (71) and has had health issues in the past couple of years, right? Webb only barely won VA. Plus, his Senate seat is even more junior than Obama's. But the problem with them both is that Obama has already got a lock on the "right on the war" issue. He'll need someone that can bring other strengths to the table (i.e., executive or diplomatic).

RE: Wesley Clark. Ain't gonna happen. He's in the tank with Clinton (and I'm sure expecting to be her VP or SecDef).