Before too many national political writers get carried away by the latest take on the GOP primary -- namely that social conservativism has a weakened hold on the GOP primary voter, homeland security trumps all other issues, and the Mayor of 9-11-01 is the horse to watch -- consider just two recent reality checks.
A Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers, released Sunday, May 20, places Juggernaut Giuliani third (at 17%) behind Arizona Sen. John McCain (18%) and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (30%). And, despite the front-page coverage of Giuliani's attack on antiwar Texas Congressman Ron Paul in the second televised GOP "debate," an unscientific survey by Fox News generated equally telling results: When Fox News viewers were asked to send text messages identifying the winner of the debate, tens of thousands did just that -- and Rep. Paul ranked along with Romney as having registered the best showing, according to a fine article by John Nichols for The Nation's web site ("Rudy Giuliani v. Ron Paul, and Reality," May 16).
The pundits' fascination in the now-maverick candidacy of Rudy Giuliani (and "maverick" is the only role for which Giuliani has ever been well-suited) appears to exceed the enthusiasm that many GOP primary voters have for him. Despite the directionless state of the party, or maybe because of it, social issues remain potent in Republican politics, not only in Iowa and South Carolina, where they're obvious, but also in several of the "super states" with conservative voting records, such as California.
And that can't be good news for a congenitally abrasive New Yawkah who has a pro-choice posture, strained relationship with his two children, three marriages under his belt, and the habit of surrounding himself with characters who will not exactly warm the hearts of the average Republican primary voter.
I'm talking, for example, about the childhood friend of Giuliani's who, as a Catholic priest, handled the annulment of Rudy's first marriage to a second cousin -- only to be accused of fondling boys in a 2003 grand jury report that referred to him as "Priest F"; he now works at Giuliani Partners. One of the former mayor's top presidential-campaign aides is a college dropout turned self-described "mixologist" (or barkeep) turned mayoral deputy, who once defaulted on thousands of dollars in student loans. Then, of course, there's Bernard Kerik, the ethically challenged Giuliani bodyguard turned correction commissioner turned police commissioner. Guiliani made him a partner in his business and put him up for the huge federal job in charge of homeland security.
Maybe the implosion of the White House's Kerik nomination amid a sea roiling from his legal and ethical problems constitutes "old news," with little bearing on the primary race. Somehow, however, I suspect that the Republican primary voter will still remember Bernie and all he represents about Rudy when he or she goes to the polls to determine the party's 2008 standard bearer.