The Palin Effect

Warning to Democrats: do not underestimate the political significance of John McCain's choice of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Whatever Governor Palins' strengths and weaknesses as a candidate may prove to be, one set of attributes is undeniable and highly relevant politically - she uniquely and personally embodies every essential component of the Republican electoral calculus.

Consider the facts. In 2004, 62 million people voted for President Bush, of whom 54 million (87%) were white men and women. Fewer than 38 million whites voted for John Kerry (64% of his 59 million votes). Thus, sixteen million more whites voted for Bush than for Kerry.

Bush voters generally were significantly more married (12 million more); protestant evangelicals (16 million more); people with annual income exceeding $50,000 (9 million more); and living in households owning guns (15 million more) than Kerry voters. (These numbers are derived from exit polls conducted by the broadcast networks and are the only, albeit imperfect, source of information on the demographics of voting)

These specific demographic groups - white, married, avid gun owning, devoutly and politically religious, with incomes over $50,000 - were the bedrock of the Republican Presidential electoral majority in 2004.

Governor Palin personally fits all of these demographic categories, and therefore, naturally excites and energizes each and every one of them.

This has profound political significance. When passionately energized, the Right-wing has formidable human and financial assets to mobilize tens of millions of voters, particularly in what are perceived to be close elections.

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As recently as several months ago, James Dobson, head of the largest alliance of politicized evangelical churches, Focus on the Family, was negative about supporting John McCain.

Then, as if lightening had struck, on August 29th after Governor Palin selection was announced, Dobson issued a press release praising her as an "outstanding choice" that "should be extremely reassuring to the conservative (Republican) base..."

The Right's non-party machinery now suddenly has a laser-like focus on creating a "surge" of voters for McCain-Palin. This machinery is vast, strategically targeted, exceptionally well-financed, and ready to rumble.

For example, in 2004, the National Rifle Association and its thousands of affiliated gun clubs throughout the country, helped to mobilize over 30 million votes for President Bush from people who own guns. John Kerry received the vote of roughly 17 million gun owners.

The core audience for several hundred hours per week of right-wing talk radio is heavily white male. These programs' bombastic hosts (e.g., Limbaugh, Hannity, Praeger, Malkin, etc.) blanket the radio airwaves daily with diatribes against anything center-left and bestow effusive praise for everything conservative-right. This politically relevant drumbeat helped to produce 27 million white male voters for Bush, compared to just 16 million for Kerry.

The religious-right has built a potent complex of activist non-profit organizations and media outlets that maintain a political conversation with their constituencies on a daily basis. This includes Focus on the Family (Dobson's network of tens of thousands local churches), Christian Broadcast Network (the media empire built by Pat Robertson), Salem Communications (the largest for-profit conglomerate of politically active Christian radio stations, publications and internet sites) and many others. This politically oriented religious machinery helped to produce 22 million protestant evangelical votes for President Bush in 2004, compared to about 6 million for Senator Kerry.

These, and others groups - such as the National Federation of Independent Business Owners (targeting voters who operate their own businesses, many of whom have incomes in excess of $50,000 annually), and veteran's organizations (predominantly older white men) - will mobilize voters this fall through an army of impassioned volunteers in thousands of communities in every "solid" and "likely" Republican state and in every "swing" state.

Collectively, these right-wing, movement groups will provide hundreds of millions of dollars worth of canvassing, registering, phoning, and leafleting to get tens of millions of voters to the polls for Republicans in dozens of states in November.

None of this guarantees a McCain victory. Indeed, given Obama's competitive advantages, McCain's weaknesses, and the grave damage that the Bush Administration has caused the country, Obama-Biden should hold virtually all of Kerry's 59 million votes, skim some votes that Bush received in 2004, receive millions more votes from first time voters, and therefore, emerge victorious in November with 63-65 million votes, or more.

Nevertheless, the addition of Governor Palin to the Republican ticket does more to excite each of the right's demographically targeted machines than anything that has happened in this election cycle thus far. That is a sobering threat that the Obama campaign, and all Democrats, would ignore at their peril.

Comments

[candlepower]

I think the palin pick shows the realist streak in the republican operations. Rove has conceded that Obama has competely won the day, so far, and their first priority in picking Palin for the Mcalin partnership is to shore up their base in the country. The fact that she doesn't solve all their problems is a big problem for them and is also a point of attack for obama.
She and her bunch of negatives are essentially just negative, the only thing they get excited about is talking about putting pipstick on four-legged animals, and being hate-filled.
Obama has gone for a "we're bigger than the shock-jock b-s that constitutes the currency of debate within the republican base."
Obama has dealt them a severe blow, yet they would still make the whole of america like a US marine who though he goes through the valley of death he will fear no evil cos he's the meanest m+++f+++er in the valley."
We all know that america is bigger than the Limbo's who want us to shoot everyone who disagrees with us first and ask questions at the burial.

[fn0rd]

Or it could be that the religious statements, much like Bush's throwaway faith-based lines, are a good way to avoid looking at - dare I say it - who is a patriot, and who ain't?

http://oopsmybad.wordpress.com/2008/09/06/mrs-palin-do-you-love-america/

[dawnbc1]

Excellent analysis.!!! I'm printing it up.
Check out Dave Johnson's in the HP too....What's Obamas story?
Unlike the writer of this article though, I'm less confident of victory in November. I was stunned in '04 (as was every other country wired in). I have been out canvassing +++++ for Obama. Time I don't have, and in hostile territory too. We cannot afford to just sit back.

[FogBelter]

I think the GOP may have a problem they haven't recognized. With this Palin pick they may be worrying about the wrong gender.

The Palin Effect may take on a whole other meaning come November 4th.

[Bitsko]

You would think with all his money, James Dobson could at least go out and get a divinity degree.

[realpolitic]

Oust the hypocritical Republicans! If they cared so much for family values they would occasionally do something to help working families. No more governance by biblical precepts!

[Whinger]

Sarah Palin, flattering only to deceive and disappoint womankind!
What GOP has on offer, four more years of the same!

How many people can honestly say they are satisfied with the last eight years of Bush and GOP?
How many people have lost their homes with many more in jeopardy, how many have lost their jobs?
How many service personel have lost their lives or been maimed and treated shamefully at home?
John McCain and GOP trying to repackage the past and sell it to the American nation once again!

[happyu]

By selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate without proper vetting, John McCain has pushed the ideal that anyone could become President of the United States to the myth that anyone should become President of the United States.

[UnbiasView]

If Obama picked Hillary Clinton then McCain would have taken Romney or Pawlenty . . . basically ending this election season last week.

It's a whole new ball game now.

[justobserve]

But Hillary would have excited the Repub AGAINST her!
Vote for issues, not your emotion: UNIVERSAL HEALTH INSURANCE, WOMEN'S CHOICE, VETS BENEFITS, EQUAL PAY.

[ShawnMichel]

It's a "whole new ball game" my ass.

It's only so in your vacuous mind--and what you're hoping for is that it, like a virus, becomes so in other soulless wretches as well.

Sorry. Won't happen.

[criquet]

Not so.
Clinton's base was predominantly female Democrats and Rush Limbaugh's plants.
Clinton would also have energised the Republican base. They were ready for her with already prepared ads.
Palin is another play they have now concocted and have to play by ear because she was not properly vetted.

[Bitsko]

You've been spending way too much time listening to the corporate shrills over at Fox News. Get out of the house and talk to your neighbors about how they feel about the republicans digging this country into a hole.

[CindyV]

With Hillary on the ticket as Veep, there would be no Sarah Palin. Obama blew it.

[Busterdawg]

With Hillary on the ticket he would have insured victory in November. His ego and his campaign staff's vindictiveness blew the election.

[serz4u]

Giving up already?? Those who admire Clinton for her tenacity and never-say-die attitude should take a lesson. Accept the reality of the situation, however far from your perceived ideal, and continue to fight for what you believe in! Raising your arms in despair, and aggrievedly saying "I told you so" hardly displays those qualities you admire.

[happypup]

Nah - Hillary is the single most polarizing figure in the history of politics. Many of Obama's base would have felt betrayed had he selected her. And as afar as egos go,.......... well Hillary and Bill have two of the most inflated egos ever.

Now, you can get on the McCain/Palin bandwagon if you wish, or you can support Obama. I sure hope you decide to go wtih 'O' as we could really use your support, but if you don't he will still come out on top.

[Niceville]

Cindy,



I agree!



If the Democratic Party doesn't win the presidency in 2008, after all that has happened the last few years and during a time of financial upheaval, something is seriously wrong.



Obviously, we will need to find new people to lead the Democatic Party. The influencial leaders who built up Obama and constantly ridiculed Clinton should be shown the door.

I've noticed if someone doesn't believe Obama will part the waters, they're just told to get over it. If we lose the election this November, it will be a whole new game.

While I believe Obama is a questionable choice as president, I still prefer him over McCain.

[janicegwashington]

AN IMPORTANT OPINION FROM GLORIA STEINEM: WRONG WOMAN, WRONG MESSAGE

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-steinem4-2008sep04,0,7915118.story

[11Xray]

You do realize that most of America simply does not identify with the likes of Gloria Steinem, don't you?

[trebor129]

We need to register millions more voters in the cities to overcome these people. They can cling to their guns and religion all they want, but we will outvote them. We have already registered millions more voters in GA, Florida, and SC. These are places which matter simply because they have the most people. There are very few farmers by comparison. We can win this.

[Bub]

What your saying is that the Republicans have the necessary horses to get close enough to steal the election again.

The problem with these far right fundies is that, in addition to pursuing policies that are ruining the nation and pushing it into a self imposed dark age, they couldn't give a crap about the other half of the country. A democratic president would try to rule the nation as a whole.

If by some reason Republican's do win the election, I think liberals and democrats ought to call a general strike to remind the idiots in the other party that they are not the entirety of the country.

Independents wouldn't strike. But at least 30% of the nation would. It helps if we have the leadership. And if Barack drops the ball, I'm sure Hillary will be willing to pick it up - and if possible and necessary, take the fight to the streets. I don't think we should let America be led into a new dark age lying down.

Another alternative would be for both houses of Congress to informally elect Hillary "prime minister". I know we don't have that kind of system - though, the electoral college is a parliament that is elected to for one purpose, to select it's prime minister who becomes the President.

If we have to we can begin to grow a parliamentory system from the inside out, informally at first.

[SouthpawSass]

"My observation is that women are merely waiting for their husbands to assume leadership." -- James Dobson


Hmmm. The only thing I want my husband leading me on is taking the garbage out without me asking him to... Oh, and killing spiders.

[justobserve]

Well, Republicans always use their women as trophies, as in the case of McCain using Palin now to excite their base. Sadly, It worked!
Vote for issues, not your emotion: EQUAL PAY, WOMEN'S CHOICE, UNIVERSAL HEALTH INSURANCE, VETS BENEFITS.

[joebaggadonuts]

Good comments.

Kurgman explains this well. Read it. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin

They are playing the same resentment card that Nixon learned to play, and taught to Rove, who mastered it.

[fishsandwichesr2good]

Resentment card? Did you see BO's speech? It was all about resentment and class envy. Bil Oil vs. crippled Bobby Sue, etc.

[happypup]

You are confused - O's speech was nothing of the sort. You sure view thrings through Rovian tinted glasses, don't you?