There is compelling new evidence that Republicans will rue the day that they allowed their virulent anti-immigrant wing to grab the controls of the Republican Party.
In fact, contrary to much of the pundit chatter, a drama is playing out this fall that may doom Republicans to permanent minority status in America.
The passage of the Arizona "papers, please" anti-immigration law has forced Republican politicians around the country into a political box canyon that does not offer an easy escape. For fear of offending the emergent Tea Party - and other anti-immigrant zealots in their own base -- they are precipitating a massive realignment of Latino voters nationwide.
According to data released by Public Policy Polling (PPP), Texas Governor Rick Perry has lost his early lead over Democratic challenger Bill White and the race is now tied. The movement from a previous PPP poll in February comes entirely from Hispanic voters. PPP reports that:
"With white voters Perry led 54-36 then and leads 55-35 now. With black voters White led 81-12 then and 70 -7 now. But with Hispanics Perry has gone from leading 53-41 to trailing 55-21....there is no doubt the (Arizona) immigration bill is popular nationally. But if it causes Hispanics to change their voting behavior without a parallel shift among whites then it's going to end up playing to Democratic advantage this fall."
The punditry sometimes forgets that in politics intensity is often just as important as poll percentages. For many Hispanic voters, the Arizona immigration law is an insult. It is an attack on their very identity. And it is certainly a litmus test that tells a Hispanic voter whether or not a political candidate is on their side - the critical threshold test of voter decision making.
The same is simply not true for non-Hispanic voters. As a result, by allowing the Party to be defined by the anti-immigrant zealots - and refusing to lift a finger to pass comprehensive immigration reform in Congress - the Republicans are playing with political fire.
In fact, given the fact that Hispanics are the fastest-growing segment of the American electorate, the Republicans are playing with permanent marginality.
As if to sharpen their anti-immigrant brand, last week the Texas Republican State Convention voted for a platform that included a plank calling on the state government to adopt a state law like the one in Arizona.
But Texas is far from the only place where the emerging Latino backlash is in evidence. PPP reports that its latest polls in Colorado show that incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennett has gone from tying his opponent Republican Jane Norton to a three-point lead largely because his lead among Hispanic voters has soared from 12 to 21 points.
California Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman felt compelled to back tough anti-immigrant measures to get the Republican nomination. Now her support among Latinos is hemorrhaging, dropping from 35 to 26 points from March to May. Since the primary, Whitman has begun to waffle on her tough anti-immigrant stand but the damage has been done - what's more, it's memorialized in videos that Democrat Jerry Brown is sure to loop over and over on Spanish language TV.
Even in districts where the Hispanic vote is not large, big declines in Republican support could prove decisive in otherwise close races. After all the difference between getting 49.9% and 51.1% means everything in an election.
The bottom line is that by passing the Arizona "papers, please" law, Republicans - especially in the West - have awakened a sleeping and growing giant.
Remember that the huge drops in Hispanic support for Republicans do not factor in the effect the Arizona law will have on Hispanic turnout.
A few months ago, no one would have predicted a massive turnout in November among Hispanic voters. That appears to have changed.
If a surge of anti-Republican Hispanic voters destroys the careers of enough politicians who thought that pandering to anti-immigrant fear was good politics, the whole political narrative about immigration reform will change.
Watch for big sections of the Republican establishment to fall all over themselves to make amends to the rising tide of Latino voters, soon after the elections. But in all likelihood it will be very difficult to get the anti-immigrant toothpaste back into the tube.
If it continues to pursue its current course, the Republican Party may find that it loses another ethnic minority the same way it lost African Americans two generations ago. African Americans recall, were a solid part of the Republican base from the Civil War through the early part of the 20th Century. Roosevelt's New Deal began to change that. The civil rights revolution and the Republican "Southern Strategy" completed it. Now 92% to 95% of African Americans vote Democratic. The problem is that you can only get shut out of a couple of minorities and before you know it, you are no longer competitive with the majority of Americans.
Within just a few years minorities will become a majority of the American electorate. And let's remember that Republicans are also having enormous difficulty competing for young white millennial voters that are forming their voting habits at this moment. That may very well mean that the decision to write off Hispanics may turn out to be a fatal error for the future of Republicans as a national party. Hispanic voters could have been a political lifeboat for Republicans. No longer.
And of course the irony is that some of the more enlightened elements of the Republican Party - who have justified risking long-term popularity with Hispanics in exchange for short-term political gains - may not even see benefits in the short run.
For some years, Latino immigration rights marchers have carried signs reading: "Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote." Tomorrow may have arrived.
Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.
But that was when Republicans were in power; where was all this concern for immigration when they controlled the presidency and both houses? And I certainly did NOT foresee the shrill, screaming outrage that came after they were relegated as the minority party.
I agree with a lot of fundamental GOP core values. However, in their desperation to regain votes, pandering to the fringe Tea Party is moving a lot of moderates to the left.
The Tea Party seemingly wants to roll back the country to some 1950’s hey day where whites were comfortably in power. That simply won’t happen, and it’s fair to say that loss is comparable to moderates losing their party to the outer fringe of wingnuts. The Republican Party will never be what it was. It will NEVER control the presidency and both houses in Congress again. Instead of embracing the advancement to a new, diverse world, they’d rather swipe the hammer from Democrats and hammer the last nail in the coffin themselves.
And like California in 1984, the Republican campaign against Hispanics will backfire again. California became solidly blue and never looked back; from the looks of it, the 2010 Republicans can’t wait ensure their extinction as a major political party in American politics.
I always find it curious that the left in this country cannot accurately describe any situation that they find themselves concerned with.
Take the above quote from the op-ed. It uses scary ideas to make you believe their is some huge right-wing led injustice going on. When, in fact, the law only mirrors federal law.
If it is so bad, why aren't you calling on President Obama to change the law. He ran on fixing immigration within his first year and yet he and his unstoppable Democrat congress could have changed any law they wanted: but did nothing. They kept it just the way they like it. It is only a problem for them if someone enforces the law, which they have no intention of enforcing.
Democratic politicians do not, by mush-brained nature, enforce laws. Enforcing laws is for those mean-spirited other people. Lack of enforcing laws and of congressional oversight is what caused the huge influx of illegal drug smugglers, the murder of Americans, slave trading & kidnapping, and illegal aliens pouring into this country. The same is true of this recession and they now have a crisis to pretend-fix for you while they do everything in their power to prolong the suffering. Just like they pretend-fix every issue.
He could enforce the law, but instead he orders the INS to stop work place raids for illegals. This is your typical Democrat, promising change, then working against it.
Up is down, black is white, criminals are victims while real victims are criminals. Sounds like a liberalism/progressivism at it's finest.
The Tea Party is not an organized political machine like the DNC and GOP. They pick candidates to support, but those candidates are primarily Republicans and will be running as Republicans. So the Tea Party won't lose, the Republican Party would be the losers.... if they lose. (Which I doubt).
I'm afraid any party with the word "progressive"in it would be a sure loser. Take a look at any poll: :the largest percentage of the US population is conservative, followed by independents, then liberals. And of the independents, most live their lives as conservatives. Only 20% of all Americans self identify as "liberal". And everyone knows that progressive is the new old name for liberals.
FYI: Throughout history progressive has been known as unfair, against individual rights, and support using government to make people conform to some jaundiced ideal. That's why they changed their label to "liberal". Now that liberalism has been revealed, they go back to progressive again.
I know who owns America. I live in Silicon Valley where 2 former technology CEOs (one who horribly failed at her job and was fired; the other who assaulted one of her own employees and settled out of court for the attack) are running for office. Both are wealthy and both are buying their new "gig". One has spent tens of millions of dollars so far and the other one isn't saying. Both of these "ladies" are rightwing nutjobs with IQs just ever-so-slightly above Michelle Bachmann’s but with endless $$$ and manipulation skills. I pray every day that the opponents of these monsters are elected. Thanks.
Next, STATE governments HAVE NO "right" WHATSOEVER to to usurp and / or take over FEDERAL responsibilities. Enforcement of FEDERAL immigration law is EXCLUSIVELY RESERVED for the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.
These three groups will fight each other until they destroy the GOP, which will then break up into three parties, ensuring the Dems hold the presidency for a long long time.
I look forward to a solid string of Dem presidents, maybe the Supreme Court will actually be for the People again, as during the Warren Court, rather than protecting business, as it does now.
In conclusion, yes the GOP is screwed, and that is the best thing for America since the signing of the Constitution, Americans have turned their backs on the GOP's doctrine of hate, obstructionism and war.
Game over GOP, we are not buying what you are selling!
Not only, as the author mentioned, are the Latino voters insulted, but young educated white people who are going to the protests (some of them finding food, culture and possibly marital partners there) are insulted.
These are people who have lived with, gone to school with and made love with a wide range of people from different cultural backgrounds, it is VERY personal when the Gov of Arizona says that their cousins must go back to Mexico (or Thailand, etc).
The GOP has AGAIN made a fatal error, and continues its ongoing quest to marginalize itself into the party of the Angry, Intolerant, Old White Frat Boys.
Then add in the fact that the GOP is actually 3 camps all of them working to different ends and you have a recipe for a permanent Wilderness GOP (maybe they will learn to love the environment during their tenure there!).
The three parts are 1) the Moderate Republicans, like Crist, who actually *might* adopt some reasonable planks on the platform, but they are pushed to the side by 2) the Xian conservatives, anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-Reason, this group wants to take us back tot he 50s, that's 1650s! 3) the Tea Baggers, who are anti-Everything they do not understand, which is considerable *continues*
I think that is simply the buzz words for anti-US or non-Americans seeking amnesty and open borders for everyone (not to mention free benefits for many).
I think AZ is anti-ILLEGAL-immigrant! As am I and most of my Hispanic friends.
AZ may suffer for their frustration and willingness to do something wildly unpopular.
But I do not believe opening borders or welcoming those who come here illegally is in any way ok. It in fact spits in the face of all those legal immigrants who worked hard to come here. Not to mention the US simply does not have the resources to feed, clothe, house and educate the world.
I know this is unpopular here but think about it before just being hateful.
I agree it can be ambiguous but I don't agree it "harms all latinos" without a real stretch by law enforcement. I don't think your old car is "reasonable suspicion." Maybe I'm giving law enforcement credit for brains they don't have, and if they "detain" you without cause then you have a lawsuit pending. (An ID "stop" is not a "detention" and we are all subject to Terry stops.) I'm pretty white and yet cops can stop me anytime anywhere and ask for my driver's license or ID. And they do this all the time, usually not to old white women but not just to latinos either.
I think you're being used by the amnesty crowd to push their agenda. (If I thought the law actually said what amnesty-folks say it says, to further their own agenda, then I'd be on the picket lines. Is AZ wrong? Maybe. Is AZ desperate? Absolutely. Do I understand that desperation? Yes.)