Four Lessons for Democrats in Tuesday's Elections
Our ability to discern trends in off-year elections is always limited by the influence of local factors -- especially when strong personalities are involved. But there are four lessons that emerged from yesterday's results that are extremely important for Democrats as we prepare for next year's midterms.
1). First and foremost, the results show that it is critical that the Democratic message be framed in populist terms.
Not surprisingly voters are unhappy. Ten percent unemployment, rising health care bills and shrinking incomes will do that. All of these problems resulted from the Republican policies of the previous eight years and the conservative values frame of the last thirty years. They have been caused by the concentration of power in Wall Street, the big health insurance companies and the dominant role of corporate special interests in Washington.
But if Democrats do not clearly frame the debate in those terms, it is easy for voters to vote against whoever is in power at the moment -- which now happen to be Democrats.
The most distinctive trend in last night's results was that in all of the nationally significant races, the incumbent -- or incumbent party -- lost (or in the case of New York City, did much more poorly than expected).
Corzine had trailed Christie by 10 percent through much of the summer. Massive TV spending, appearances by the president and last minute get-out-the-vote efforts helped close the gap. But that wasn't enough to re-elect the former Chairman of Goldman Sachs in a state with little patience like New Jersey.
In Virginia, the lackluster campaign of Creigh Deeds never had a chance and found it singularly difficult to inspire voters.
New York's 23rd District had not elected a Democrat since the Civil War, but Democrat Bill Owens made history by winning the seat against a divided Republican field.
In New York City, Michael Bloomberg was supposed to cruise to re-election. He outspent his Democratic opponent by millions and still just squeaked out a win.
It was a bad day to be an incumbent -- or incumbent party.
To avoid the same fate next fall, Democrats need to frame the national debate in distinctly populist terms. We need to continually name the forces and institutions that have caused such economic pain, and present ourselves as the agents of change who will return economic power to average Americans. If we do not, we will be blamed.
Political messages loaded with references to our "experience" in Government or that attempt to sound "middle of the road" when it comes to Wall Street or insurance companies will be heard by the voters as apologies for a status quo that they don't like and want to change.
John Corzine is a very progressive guy. But his ties to Wall Street were far from a plus in yesterday's balloting.
2). Independent voters will demand that Democrats deliver on our promise of change. Yesterday many of the independent voters that supported Obama in Virginia and New Jersey last year voted Republican. This trend may be slightly overstated since many Republican leaning voters who used to self-identify as Republican in exit polls are now self-identifying as Independents. But there is little question that independent voters are very impatient. In 2008 Barack Obama sold them on change and hope. To continue to invest their hope with Democrats, swing voters are going to have to see evidence that change is happening.
It won't work to make excuses -- even if some of them are legitimate. The truth is that the same economic forces that caused our problems are doing everything they can to prevent change. By next fall we don't have to win everything. We don't need to bring unemployment to 2% or have completely wrestled the health insurance companies to the mat. But independent voters are going to have to see some evidence that we have begun to make serious change.
That means we're going to have to win the battles for health care reform, change the financial regulatory system, begin creating clean energy jobs and pass immigration reform. Most importantly, it means that Democrats have to demonstrate that they are creating jobs. To accomplish that task, a great deal more economic stimulus is a must.
3). Democrats must inspire the base. In Virginia and New Jersey, the Republicans turned out more strongly than expected and many, many Obama Democrats stayed home. There were some good Democratic and base mobilization get-out-the-vote programs in both states. Mechanics weren't the main problem. The problem was inspiration.
Inspiration was Barack Obama's not-so-secret weapon in 2008. Inspiration helped him persuade independent voters who wanted change, and mobilize base voters who wanted hope. Without an inspired base, Democrats cannot hold our own in 2010 -- it's that simple.
Success at making change will help renew the faith of Independents and also help energize the base. But to be inspired, the base of the Democratic Party must be convinced that the president and his party are the champions of core progressive principles as well. A hopeful populist frame is critical to motivate mobilizable voters.
Key symbols will be very important. That's why it is so important for 2010, not only that a health insurance reform bill passes, but that it includes a public option. That's why it is so important -- to mobilize Latino voters -- that Congress pass comprehensive immigration reform.
4). Our not-so-secret weapon in 2010 is the Republican circular firing squad. Thank God for Sarah Palin -- and the entire "purge the party of all but true believers" crowd. The story of New York 23 read like a fable. The Club for Growth, Sarah Palin, Glen Beck, Rush Limbaugh and their whole gang turn on the not-conservative-enough Republican nominee -- driving her to endorse the Democrat -- and lost control of a seat Democrats have not won in a hundred and fifty nine years.
I would say that Democrats should nurture and encourage this self-destructive right wing tendency, but they seem to do a fine job all by themselves. Luckily, the commercial interests of Limbaugh, Beck et al. are entirely congruent with the ambitions of fringe candidates like Sarah Palin and the right winger who lost in New York 23, Doug Hoffman.
Notwithstanding Republican victories in the New Jersey and Virginia governor's races, let's not forget that a lower percentage of Americans now self-identify as Republicans than at any other time in a quarter-century. The right wingers in the Republican Party are mainly talking to each other -- not to the country.
But as last night's returns demonstrated, that even with that enormous handicap, Republicans can still win elections if we allow the legitimate anger and impatience of the voters to focus on "incumbents" instead of the economic actors that have created such a deep well of desire for real change in America.
Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on amazon.com.
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< #1. First and foremost, the results show that it is critical that the Democratic message be framed in populist terms. >
Agreed, Mr. Creamer. Instead, Mr. Obama can NOT even DEFEND - vocally, publicly, insistently - MEDICARE (or Social Security either)!!!
These two VERY POPULAR programs account for 15.3% withholding (taxes) of EVERY EARNED INCOME dollar in America - the REAL economy!! (SS withholding cuts off over $102,000 earned income, but not for Medicare.)
Medicare was but ONE of the TREMENDOUS accomplishments of the Johnson 89th Congress - much less Civil Rights & Voting Rights... Obama can't even DEFEND MEDICARE, much less BUST a Right-WIng filibuster to enact those three groundbreaking pieces of legislation, as Johnson did.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=27931
Instead, Pres. Obama is HANDING OUT some huge portion of $20+ TRILLION DOLLARS to his Banking, Finance, Wall St., and insurance friends... with Little to NO, ZERO oversight!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ27ITF7gaoQ
Indeed, one of the MAJOR RECIPIENTS of that massive Bailouts LOOT, JPMorgan (Chase) bank, was just penalized $722 MILLION for BRIBING the officials of just ONE SC county, to purchase their overpriced bonds.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/04/jpmorgan-settlement-bank-_n_345889.html
President Obama PRETENDS NOT TO NOTICE massive BRIBERY in financial markets - he is effectively running a Cheney Bushian PROTECTION RACKET, instead of Halliburton, Enron, Blackwater, & crony war contractors, Obama is running his racket for GolddamnSachs, JPMorgan, Citi, & the other mega-bank (fraudsters)!
Interesting. The day after the elections I read 12,000 comments on this very site stating that these elections meant nothing to the democrats.
Perception is everything. It doesn't matter who caused all of our problems, if the party put in charge is not forcefully working to fix those problems.
When Dems, like Baucus and the blue dogs, are allowed by the party to spend months denying the reality of the suffering the insurance industry has caused, and the President refuses to back the people on a public option that 60% to 70% of the population favors, no one cares who started the mess. Obama and the Dems promised to fix it.
They still have a chance to turn this mess around, but the clock is ticking. Voters pay attention these days, and they don't like being taken for granted. I cringe at the thought of the Repubs getting back into power, and that's why my party is making me so angry these days. I'd vote for a strong 3rd party candidate in a heartbeat today. Something I've never done in 40 years of voting.
Democrats didn't inspire anyone. Obama did. He took many of the current Congresspeople in with him. Congress has a very low approval rating and independents ournumber both republican core and democratic core voters.
The incumbents seem to be the targets in these elections of independent voters. And, guess who are the incumbents?
VA and NJ has a rude awaking coming!! Why would anybody vote for the same party that got us into this mess? Why??
The reason people are disgusted with the Democrats in congress is because even though they have a majority, NOTHING IS GETTING DONE. We have a stimulus plan that was passed, but where is the money? where are the jobs? The health care bill is AWFUL - mandatory health insurance for all with NO public option!!!? Ridiculous!!! What about regulating Wall Street?
Democrats still come off as "impotent" to do ANYTHING. Even though Republicans do not represent the values of the country, they are winning because of apathy, disgust, and anger at the Democrats in congress. I have been a Democrat all my life, and I am ready to change to Independent because i am FED UP!!! watching this circus has been downright painful.
This election should be a wake-up call for Democrats.Let's face it, Democratic leaders, including the president, have been very wishy washy about the the major issues facing the country.Although there is a real possibility that the Congress will pass health care legislation this year and it's true that the right as demonized the various Democratic plans as socialism and as too radical for Americans, the fact is that the Democratic health care proposals are quite conservative.For example, a basic premise for health care reform was not only to make insurance universal,but to make quality insurance plans affordable to the millions of uninsured.So, what have the Democrats come up with?According to the Congressional Budget Office, a family of four with an income of $66000 will be mandaated to buy insurance that will cost $10000 a year and a family of four with an income of $78000 will have to fork over $13,800 in premiums and cost sharing,even with government subsidies and a public option.The aforementioned families are pobably having a hard time right now making ends meet, so imagine their shock and dismay when they are mandated to purchase these costly plans.What makes Medicare so popular is that it provides excellent benefits at a reasonable cost..If the Democrats had created a Medicare for all program instead of buckling to the special interests,the party would be unbeatable.Being wishy washy and running to the so called center will not win elections.
Amen. There is no way to "reach across the aisle" for Dems because the Rep idea of cooperation and bipartisanism is "capitulate entirely to us." Bad enough we had the Repubs in charge as a majority. Now we're going to let them run the show from their minority position?? The Dems need to get a spine and do what we elected them to do.
"Democrats must inspire the base."
It seems to me elections ride on two things: personalities and issues. Of course, what else is there?
The incumbent party is always saddled with "personality" as the voters are aware of just who the candidate is. That tends to be a negative. The opposing party has the luxury to speak in vague hopeful terms of what they can philosophically provide to the issues while pinpointing the human foibles and idiosyncracies of the incumbent. That tends to be a positive.
It's the frustration people are feeling now with Obama's message of "hope" and "change."
In the end the complex reality of today's issues keep us turning in circles every election cycle. People need to keep the focus on the issues and Democrats need to demonstrate through specific action that they have the best ideas to solve the issues of our time. Stop trying to appease the opponents. It won't happen. Just get on with it and do it and do it big. The health care insurance reform is the best place to start.
The paradox is that those who run against democrats and the Obama policies will do it on a platform of "change" and they will be right.
"But independent voters are going to have to see some evidence that we have begun to make serious change."
You've got that! I think that any incumbent, individual or party, that wants to hold their seat in 2010 need to have clearly demonstrated that they are pushing forward for change - not dragging their feet doing a "move slow" on the status quo. You're right about Obama's "inspiration factor". The trouble with inspiring people is that if you don't come through they grow cynical - I speak from personal experience. Obama's administration has gone a long way to convince this voter that they are really very little different from those they replaced. And I don't think that Obama himself will be safe in 2012 unless he has done more then give excellent and inspiring speeches. I think a lot of his supporters like myself WANT to believe that he's really working for "Change we can Believe in". But I have to tell you that I'm not very impressed by the trickle of incremental change that I've seen. I'm willing to wait a little longer, but the longer it goes the more drastic is the change that I'll expect to see. It's fine to have an 8 year plan. But if you don't survive the first 4 years... what is the point. Obama needs demonstrable success - SOON! And not just CYA change - but real, groundbreaking, 180 degrees change. Otherwise this progressive will start looking for a more promising candidate
I think Obama's biggest threat isn't with republicans but with independents and his own party. Carter had the same problem and was challenged by T. Kennedy. Those pundits who discuss the split in the republican party must be too young to remember Johnson/Kennedy and Carter/Kennedy.
Hillary is waiting in the wings with her foreign policy creds, her ability to bring in crossover voters and her past successes as a leader.
Hillary 2012
Absolutely right, what democrats need to do is to continue to run against George Bush.
What about the 60% that are conservative that vote Republican?
It isn't that high. Now it is estimated that independents outnumber both the core democrats and the core republicans. Independents are the new third party.
Stephanopoulos [or something like that] called them "predatory independents" willing to cross party lines.
except many so-called "independents" are very much right wing. They are just "rebranding" themselves because there's a lingering stigma on the Republican name after Bush's presidency, a multitude of scandals and the outcome of the '08 election.
"Circular firing squad" LMAO
Republicans can still win elections because the Democrats are useless.
In every case, the candidates who lost were lack luster and ran poor campaigns. Rahm Emmanuel and the cowardly Democratic Party smple refuse to back populists and or anyone who won't embrace the corrupt Party line.
It's not the "populist message" that is the problem, it's the Democrat's elitist protectionism and unwillingness to create real change they promised that has people upset.
Voters aren't blaming the incumbents for other people's sins, they are blaming them for their own sins.
The Democratic Congress has been incrediby weak on every important issue. There is cap on health care spending but no cap on illicti war and no restrictions on the war industry fraud. Wall Street, Banksters and now the health care industry will all get their share but there is next to nothing for the people hurt by and economic collapse that congress could have prevented.
In spite of Obama's mighty rhetoric, here is nothing worthy of the name "leadership" coming from the White House. Instead of "change we can believe in", Obama devotes his time to fund raising from the very people that have crushed our democratic experiment.
That's why voters either voted for the none of the above or punished incumbents.
If there's no healthcare reform bill with a public option passed by the end of the year, and no noticeable job growth over the next 12 months, then Democrats will be toast for the midterms. But if those things do happen, then Republicans will be toast. These are volatile times and yesterday's results could easily be swayed by the success or failure of these two core issues. And if the nervous, moderate Democrats think holding back support will spare them failure, it's much more likely failure will make all Democrats vulnerable.
The Democrats had a big win last November and - as evidenced on this comment board - assumed the Republican party was dead, or at least dying. In other words, we got complacent.
Yes, the Republican party is down, but definitely not out.
Obama hasn't so much BROKEN his promises, so much as COMPROMISED them away. No, wait, let's not call them Compromises, let's call them what they are: DEALS. The banks, corporations, insurance companies, etc. get to keep the status quo, and Obama gets to say he's made progress. We have to demand more from our President.
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