How Obama Can Win Over Seniors and Turn the November Election Into a Democratic Landslide

Conventional wisdom considers senior citizens to be prime McCain turf. After all, throughout the primaries Barack Obama has polled more strongly among younger voters. Today's Washington Post/ABC News Poll shows Obama leading McCain overall 49% to 45%. But he trailed by 22% among white seniors while he lead two to one among voters under 30. Senior voters are especially important to McCain in swing states with older populations like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, Iowa and Michigan.

McCain has to hang on to senior voters to have any shot at victory. But Obama can substantially increase his vote share among senior citizens, and if he succeeds, he can turn the November election into a Democratic landslide. Here's how:

Challenges To Be Overcome:

1). Unfamiliarity and Resistance to Change. The core message of the Obama campaign is change. The problem is that seniors as a group are more resistant to change than young people. McCain, on the other hand, is an "old comfortable shoe." The key to neutralizing this natural McCain advantage is to convince seniors that Obama wants "safe change" -- that he himself is "safe" and predictable. Three things are most important in making seniors feel "safe":

* Most importantly, Obama needs to convince seniors that he shares their values. This will play out especially in the areas of national security, race and economic security -- more on those later. But Obama's willingness to discuss values -- not just policies -- will be very important as well. His Father's Day sermon on the responsibilities of fathers is a good example. So is his frequent appeal to values like unity and hope.

* The more seniors know about his family and his history, the more they like him. Obama is a great father, with lovely children. That's a big deal to seniors. The more they get to know him personally on daytime talk shows, and through personal profiles and events in their communities, the more they will come to feel he is "safe."

* Endorsements by other seniors -- especially their neighbors. All people are pack animals, we want our friends and neighbors to approve of what we do and think. Senior celebrity endorsers can help. But if Democrats organize a major program where seniors communicate their support for Obama directly to other seniors, that more than anything else, will make them feel that Obama is "safe."

2). National Security. Like most Americans, seniors share the view that we need a new direction in our foreign policy, and they oppose the Iraq War. But polls show that many think McCain may be more trustworthy than Obama as a leader in world affairs. Just as importantly, seniors are the major audience for Republican attempts to make Obama look "unpatriotic." Three steps are most important here:

* Democrats should not attempt to "soften" their opposition to the Iraq War by trying to sound more like Republicans. We need to be clear that the Bush-McCain policies have failed precisely because they have made America less safe, weakened our military, strengthened our adversaries and isolated America in the world. Seniors fear that Obama might not be "strong" enough personally in dealing with world issues. He - and Democrats generally - need to show them that we are "strong" by standing up forcefully for our own view of the policy that can make us safer - and that we are more patriotic in that regard than reckless right-wingers who have in fact made us less secure.

* The "cost of war" frame is particularly powerful with seniors. They agree strongly that it is outrageous that Bush and McCain have spent hundreds of billions on the War in Iraq, but can't find the money to pay for health care.

* While most Americans agree with Democrats on the policy in Iraq, they still believe by a slight margin that McCain is better equipped to deal with Iraq as president. Democrats need to repeatedly go right at McCain's competency and judgment when it comes to Iraq -- to remind them that his judgment about going to war in Iraq in the first place was wrong.

3). Racial Prejudice. The fact is that seniors grew up in a culture that left a higher percentage of racial prejudice -- and racism -- among seniors than the general population. Obama can, in fact, attract votes from seniors that are prejudiced. He won't attract votes from seniors who are racists.

When you have negative stereotypes about another race, that's racial prejudice. Unfortunately, America is full of those stereotypes. But stereotypes can be overcome by actually getting to know a specific person, like Barack Obama.

Racism, as distinct from racial prejudice, is a different matter. Racism involves defining your identity -- your meaning -- in contrast to someone else's race. Of course, race is a characteristic that defines many, if not most, people's concept of their own identity and meaning. That is not necessarily racism. Someone who thinks of herself as a Jew or an Italian, or African American or Hispanic is not being "racist." Racial identity -- and racial pride -- are healthy, positive portions of most people's sense of themselves.

Racism does not involve the definition of your identity in terms of what you are, but rather in terms of what you're not. A racist derives his sense of self-worth from the fact that he is not black. That's why racists are "haters." And that's why they are often so passionate about their hatred. Their view of people of other races goes right to their own definition of who they are as a person. That's why the notion of social equality, and especially subordination to the other group, is so terrifying to a racist. To a racist, the idea of working for a black boss or following a black leader, negates his view of his own self-worth. Obviously, a racist would never dream of voting for a black president. Someone who is simply prejudiced, might. Most seniors are not racists, even if many are prejudiced. Once agin, personal familiarity is the key.

Advantages to Be Driven Home:

1). Seniors Strongly Oppose McCain's Positions on the Issues Seniors Care Most About -- Social Security and Health Care.

* McCain supports Bush's plan to privatize Social Security. For McCain, Social Security privatization is political kryptonite. The battle to defeat Bush's risky privatization plan was the watershed that turned the political tide against the Republicans in 2005. Bush's plan to privatize Social Security was horribly unpopular among seniors. Seniors particularly objected because it would have reduced guaranteed Social Security benefits, and endangered the long term stability of the Social Security Trust Fund by diverting trillions of dollars that would otherwise be used to pay guaranteed benefits. More than anyone else, seniors understood the importance of guaranteed benefits and wanted to protect the principle underlying Social Security since its inception: that we're all in this together, not all in this alone.

Finally, privatization would only worsen the already-floundering Bush economy by putting a huge new tax burden on Americans by requiring massive new borrowing and debt.

McCain supported the Bush plan in 2005, and he continues to support the diversion of Social Security taxes into private accounts. His own polling apparently shows his political vulnerability on the issue. Last week he tried to argue that he was not for "privatizing Social Security," just for creating "personal accounts." That is the same word game that Bush tried in 2005; it didn't work then and it won't work now. Diverting money from the Social Security Trust Fund into "private accounts" is privatization -- it's that simple.

Obama firmly opposes Social Security privatization and has proposed increasing social security taxes only on families earning $250,000 or more per year -- a move that would guarantee the solvency of Social Security for generations.

* McCain supported attempts to privatize Medicare, and he opposes a Universal Health Plan that would cut prescription drug costs. Seniors care more than youngerAmericans about health care. McCain backed the Medicare drug plan called Medicare Part D that is deeply flawed and does nothing to control costs of pharmaceuticals that is one of the top issues for seniors. His health insurance proposal would undermine the employer-provided health care plans upon which many seniors depend for supplemental coverage, and he would do nothing to control health insurance or pharmaceutical costs in the future.

In fact, McCain's campaign is supported and run by lobbyists for the health insurance and pharmaceutical industries.

2). McCain's Age Might Actually Work Against Him with Seniors. At first glance, you might think that older people would be more prone to vote for an older candidate. But that is not always true. Bob Dole, who was 73 when he got the Republican nomination, found that older voters were his toughest sell on the issue of age. The New York Times reports that "in polling and interviews, these voters often pointed to their own daily experiences -- for instance, the struggle to balance a checkbook -- when they explained why they would be reluctant to support him."

The more seniors know about Obama the more they support him. But McCain's support shrinks the more they know about his positions -- especially on health care and Social Security. Barack Obama has an opportunity to both neutralize McCain's current advantages, and to capitalize on his enormous vulnerabilities. If he can succeed, the election could be a rout.

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.

Comments

[research]

Great article. Let's all keep thinking about how Obama can win more votes.

Thanks.

[oafishcad]

Senior voters are no different from other voters. Show seniors the differences between the candidates and where each candidate will take America, and they'll vote for Obama. Anyone with a brain and a heart will. There is only one direction that America can take for a better future. Stop treating seniors like a breed apart. That's the GOP way. Separate out the gays, the blacks the women. Sorry, no. We're all in this together.

[XME]

"Obama can, in fact, attract votes from seniors that are prejudiced."

I absolutely believe this is true, and that the term "racist" (as opposed to prejudiced") is used far too liberally. Most people who are prejudiced are because they rely on sterotypes or limited negative interactions to make a judgement about an entire group. So I definitely agree that if Obama gets out and meets these people, he stands a pretty decent chance of winning a good portion over. To meet someone like him is to disprove their preconceived prejudices...and it can only help this country move closer to one that is less prejudiced. Or, to use Obama's words, it can only help this country move closer to a "more perfect union".

[orangepetal]

Sure Dean loves the perfect union.

[afed27]

Nothing could ever change my mind about my "no vote for Obama" stand.

[gevan]

You might want to cut back on the "all people are pack animals" analogy.

[HamletsMill]

I had the same thought. A statement like that is all oh so, well, Third Reich. Been done. Let's move on to something perhaps a little LESS Concentration Camp focused like "All humans will eventually respond to reason and intelligence on solving the issues facing the human race."

Let's go with that.

[siegfried89]

This is personal experience of how the prescription drug system works in America. This may be a rather extreme case but I think it will drive the point home: prescription drug prices can be negotiated

Because of a new leukemia drug my wife takes daily she also has to take and antiemetic to prevent the associated vomiting. The antiemetic is Ondansetron HCl (generic Zofran), it is very expensive, has viturally no side effects and she has no insurance to cover the cost.

CVS Pharmacy and Tom Thumb pharmacy prices 30 of the 8mg generic tabs at over $500, Wal-Mart's price for the same quantity is $150. We were able to buy the identical generic drug, 30 oral disintegrating 8mg tabs, for $42 at a local health clinic.

People with insurance pay over $500 for a drug that is profitable at $42.

[orangepetal]

Thats why we need Clinton, she knows this stuff.

[FACINGREALIT]

Sure she does - that is why 15 years after she first took the issue on we are still w/o insurace for the general populace. What most people are unwilling to accept about Clinton is that she is 'considered' a very intelligent woman who can discuss a slew of things but has nothing policy wise to back that up.

If Clinton was really interested in ensuring a universal healthcare plan she did not have to be POTUS to achieve that feat. She could have written legislature as a Senator to begin this process much like TED KENNEDY (not Hillary) did for CHIP (children health insurance plan). Hillary sat back in the Senate and played it safe so as not to ruffle any feathers on her journey.

I am amazed that many people can find so many things wrong with the Obama's yet have no problem with the adulterous acts of both Bill Clinton, John McCain, and Cindy McCain. . Yet the Obama's have been married 15 years and are responsible parents to their two young daughters. It is amazing - how forgiving we are of those who have proven their deceit but question those who have no questioning. If there had been as much skeptism of Bush - We would be in a much better place and yet he stole the 2000 election and was REELECTED in 2004. This world must be coming to an end for there are no morals left in this society. No wonder our children are

[BubbaC33]

The best thing Obama can do if he wants to win is to ignore advice from Creamer and Eskow.

[HamletsMill]

See my above post. I am changing my mind. I agree. Send ALL political consultants of every stripe to the Concentration Camps. This whole "seniors" terminology makes me think of people with walkers soiling their pants on their way to beating up youths taking their politics seriously these days. I myself now am a "senior" and I feel like I am 19 in my mind. The U.S. is a nation of idiots across every demographic. It is the thinking people that must step up to the plate now across every demographic. Political consultants need to get a life. Speaking the truth is the only strategy needed to win. Let the faint hearted perish. I say to the barricades in this election for the soul of my nation. At whatever stage of life you are at in your life's journey, bring your open heart and your best game.

[kasv]

I think you've missed a winning point in your #1 "safe change" entry - Senator Obama needs to his "Safe" changes with McCain's UNSAFE changes that will affect seniors. 1) McCain's "social security is broken" quote coupled with his earlier run quotes where he says he is FOR privatizing social security. Aaah, there are many more UNSAFE changes that would affect seniors....

[LeonBNJ]

One of the best things he could do is completly redo the Part D drug progams, elimiating the 'donut' hole of benefits, reduce the initial deductables and putting in an income factor as to your premiums and deductables. The current plan steals $1000+ per person from people bearly making that per month between SS and a pension. Promise to fix that and Seniors will vote for Obama in droves.

[FlyingEagel]

To everyone who says Hillary has more experience than Barack Obama, I say . .Who has held an Elective Office Longer? Enough said!

[Danigirl65]

And very well said, at that.

[deapthrowt]

You really should not ask people to look into what Obama actually did while he held honorary positions in both the state and federal govenment and called in absent or present most of the time. And if time in service is your only criteria, John McCain wins hands down. Perhaps you want to explore a more winning argument for Obama - if you can find one. It is embarassing to actually present Obama as "experienced".

[Indepatriot]

It's embarassing to present you as "American."

[knighthowl]

Since when is election to the Illinois Senate an honorary position? Since when is election to the United States Senate an honorary position?

While votes of present in the Illinois Senate are a common act, Obama never voted present in the U.S. Senate.

You really ought to get your facts straight unless your only purpose is to spread disinformation.

And while McCain may have experience, his record demonstrates a long history of voting "mistaken." Is that what we need or want?

[oafishcad]

I'd like to thank you for commenting so that we can see the Republican arguments against Obama.

[TooLooze]

Try actually researching what Obama has accomplished. Compare it to McCain, Bush and your other dittohead icons.

[afed27]

To FlyingEagel...Are you referring to Obama's 8 years in the Illinois Senate & 4 years in the U.S. Senate? Can you tell me what Obama accomplished in those 12 years? It will be a miracle if you find anything to report. On the other hand, in Clinton's 6 years in the Senate, she has a trove of
accomplishments. Check their voting records. It goes to show you that quality trounces quantity every time.

[hhkeller]

Six Months of campaigning and I still can't figure out what obamas has ever done except run for office.
He's even more empty than Bush was. Guess thats the big joke of 2008 on Democrats.

[Danigirl65]

"Figuring out" requires paying attention and doing your research on the candidates. Apparently, you've done neither. I don't mind people not supporting Obama, we all have the right to our own opinions and the ability to voice them, thanks to the constitution this administration has walked all over. What I do mind is people who don't educate themselves before they voice their opinion.

[Indepatriot]

Upon reviewing your previous posts it's painfully easy to see why you "can't figure out" what Obama's accomplished as a legislator. You're a sterling example of the "dumbing down" of Americans that began when Ronnieraygun took office. You exhibit no trace of free thought, deductive reasoning, or intellectual curiosity.( are you secretly a member of the bushcrimefamily?) The "big joke" of 2008 is on you and the rest of the fear driven, racist, America-hating,knuckle-dragging, neoCon punks who are about to find yourselves on the wrong end of the evolutionary curve.( of course you probably don't believe in evolution,as that requires at least a rudimentary grasp of science) Figure this out; President Barack Hussien Obama. Yes We F#cking Can.

[TheOpinionGuy]

The Lugar-Obama Cooperative Threat Reduction -- Introduced by Obama, Sen. Lugar and Sen. Coburn. This bill expanded upon the successful Nunn-Lugar threat reduction, which helped secure weapons of mass destruction and related infrastructure in former Soviet states. It expanded nonproliferation to conventional weapons -- including shoulder-fired rockets and land mines.

Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act of 2006 -- This act required full disclosure of all entities or organizations receiving federal funds in FY2007. The act passed into law and was signed by President Bush. The act had 43 cosponsors, including Sen McCain. The act created a Web site (http://www.usaspending.gov/), which provides citizens with information about their tax dollars.

Honest Leadership and Open Government Act -- Obama and Feingold worked to pass this law, which amends and strengthens the Lobbying Disclosure Act of 1995. The changes require public disclosure of lobbying activity and funding, places more restrictions on gifts for members of Congress and their staff, and provides for mandatory disclosure of earmarks in expenditure bills. Both the House (411-8) and Senate (83-14) passed the bill.

Deceptive Practices and Voter Intimidation Prevention Act -- Following voter intimidation in mostly black counties in Maryland during the 2006 midterm elections, Obama worked with Sen Schumer to introduce this bill. The bill has been referred to the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary.

Does that help? (Source: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/10/10532/8283)

[TheOpinionGuy]

Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007 -- Introduced by Obama, this binding act would stop the planned troop increase of 21,500 in Iraq, and would also begin a phased redeployment of troops from Iraq with the goal of removing all combat forces by March 31, 2008. "Our troops have performed brilliantly in Iraq, but no amount of American soldiers can solve the political differences at the heart of somebody else's civil war," Obama said.

Amendments to the 2008 Defense Authorization Bill -- Obama worked with Sen. Kit Bond to limit, through this bill, the Pentagon"s use of personality disorder discharges in the FY 2008 Defense Authorization bill. This provision adds safeguards to discharge procedures and require review by GAO. It followed reports that the Pentagon used procedures to discharge service members with service-connected psychological injuries.

The Comprehensive Nuclear Threat Reduction provision -- With Sen. Hagel and Rep. Adam Schiff, Obama authored this provision. It requires the president to develop a plan for ensuring all nuclear weapons and weapons-usable material at vulnerable sites around the world be secured by 2012. A bill provision was passed by Congress in Dec 2007 as an amendment to the State-Foreign Operations appropriations bill.

(Source: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/10/10532/8283)

[samandally]

Thank You! Guess we should at least give him credit for being PRESENT over 120 times!

[TheOpinionGuy]

Why have a cap on income for Social Security taxes at all?!?

Why is it acceptable that people making $10,000,000 pay the same SS tax as those making $88,000 a year?

Monies raised under the Social Security tax are *NOT* used solely to pay SS benefit. For over 30 years, Congress has been using that money to pay for the cost of running the government (salaries, defense, etc.).

Why is this slush fund limited only to those with less than $100,000 or even $250,000 under Obama's plan?

[Dayahka]

Hey, you are so presumptuous! I'm a senior and I wouldn't vote for Mac-the-Same anymore than I would vote for Mugabe. Winning me over has to do with presenting reasonable policy proposals, and so far he's about 50/50. He's right, for example, to talk about taxing the rich, but throwing more borrowed money at the economy isn't going to help bring a dead horse back to life. Then on the really bad side, he's kowtowing to one of the biggest frauds around, that scam artist Al Gore and his global warming scam. Put me down so far as interested but not convinced.

[JSquercia]

Here is a sure Fire Way to win a LOT of Seniors . Stop The Tax on Social Security Benefits that Reagan instituted and while you're at it stop Taxing Unemployment Benefits as well .

[klmebane]

i find it interesting that many of those who are convinced global warming is a scam will be dead before any of the major consequences of climate change are actually effecting a large majority of americans.

[inwonderland]

What IS this. Barack and Hillary tepid, mediocre coming out party?

It is so underwhelming. Not sure if this is a first step of many, but if this is considered a big step, it is a baby step, at best.

This country is not buying a photo op as true Unity.

But, if it is a start up to something real, then ..let it begin.

Not sure why the Patti Solis Doyle appointment had to be announced prior to the actual Unity, is a political conundrum.

Maybe it was a way to end the Hillary based end of Primary and not let the chatter of the Clinton veepstakes drown out the shout out that this Party is moving into the future, with or without.

We shall see what this "second date" yields.

[deapthrowt]

PUMA Rules! Even if Hillary kissed Obama on his *ss, I would never vote for him. So don't blame Clinton if GoldenBoy goes down in flames. Blame Obama himself because he is the all time loser. All on his own.

[TheOpinionGuy]

Any specifics that you would like to provide other than the color of his skin or the size of his ears?

[Knowbetter]

President Barack Obama. Get used to it - you'll be hearing it for THE NEXT EIGHT YEARS!

[Jazzbeau]

Are you called 'deapthrowt' because your opinions suck?

[HamletsMill]

deapthrowt,

I went to the PUMA site. Pathetic. If you ladies are so upset, I'll drive you to the recruiting station and you and can fight and die in Iraq to vent your anger in battle. But it may cost you your life or worse. There is a war on and if this nation does not pool together in common sense, you and your ilk, will suffer the consequences like everyone else.

We are souls in different types of bodies. I am a soul in a male body. You area soul in a female body. But we are souls.

Pull yourself together, madam.

There are soldiers out there at war in harms way.

Think about them and not your gender self identity politics.

[Johnnn]

This article makes a lot of assumptions about older voters. Everyone is trying to explain why seniors are less likely to vote for Obama. Maybe they just don't know him well enough. Maybe they think he's not ready. But I would dismiss the racism factor. Obama is past that hurdle now, believe me.

[BigBen]

As the man said about the new dog biscuits which were left on the shelf. Dogs don't like them.