The political conventional wisdom has already concluded that Democrats will suffer major losses in November midterm elections. Indeed, if the election were held today, that might be true. There have been very few midterms in modern political history where the party that holds the White House has not lost a lot of seats in the first midterm after its President first took office.
But there are six months and a great deal that Democrats can do to succeed this fall.
Rule #1: Keep our eyes on the prize. Democrats have four goals in the coming midterms that should define our allocation of financial and political resources. In descending order of importance they are:
At the same time, it would be enormously useful if we made examples of several Members who abandoned that agenda - especially those that represent safe Democratic seats. Several come to mind where the filing deadline for the Democratic primary has not yet passed. And as Niccolo Machiavelli noted, you don't have to punish all of your enemies - just hang one in the public square.
The other is Florida's heavily Cuban 25th District that has been dominated by Republicans but is trending more Democratic. Joe Garcia, who did well there last cycle against an incumbent, is considering a run for what is now an open seat. A victory there would help Democrats continue to woo young Cuban Americans away from their traditional Republican roots.
Rule #2: Midterm elections are all about turnout. In 1994 Democrats did not lose control of Congress because of a huge swing among persuadable voters. We lost because Republican voters turned out, and ours stayed at home.
That means two things.
Rule #3: We can't afford to allow the Republicans to make the midterms a referendum on Democratic performance. It must be framed as a choice between the failed Republican policies of the past and the Democratic program to lay a foundation for sustained, widely-shared economic growth.
Bush and the Republicans created an economic disaster in America. It will take a long time to clean that mess up. We must frame every discussion in terms of the choice between the failed policies that got us here, and our policies for the future.
That means two things:
Rule #4: We have to frame the debate in clear populist terms -- about who is on your side. By Election Day people will still be unhappy. If we don't focus that anger on the people who really caused this economic disaster, they will blame Democrats, who are in charge of the Government.
The narrative is very simple. And it has the enormous advantage of being 100% true. The recklessness of the big Wall Street Banks and their Republican allies cost seven million Americans their jobs. Democrats want to hold the big Wall Street Banks accountable and throw out the Republican policies that put the interests of the Banks and other special interests like health insurance companies ahead of the public interest.
It will be great if we can point to new laws to hold the big Wall Street Banks accountable. But it is critical that we draw a clear distinction between our positions and the interests of Wall Street. Wall Street - and the overgrown financial sector in general - should always be the chief villain in our political narrative.
Rule #5: The outcome of midterm elections are hugely dependent on the popularity of the President. History shows that whether Members of Congress vote with him or not, his popularity impacts the ambient level of their support. That means that Members of Congress have an enormous personal political interest in passing his agenda. And many need to remember that if the political tide goes out, it is those in the shallowest political water who will be left aground.
Rule #6: In midterm elections, whichever party nationalizes the contest almost always wins. In 2002, the Democrats made the giant mistake of trying to "localize" the midterms -- to focus on local issues -- while Republicans generated a national narrative. Republicans expanded their margins in the House and re-took control of the Senate. A national narrative is key to victory.
Rule #7: No flip-flops. But that doesn't mean that the qualities of individual candidates aren't important. Democratic Members of Congress need to remember the story of John Kerry's Presidential campaign. Swing voters agreed with Kerry on the issues. But the Republicans convinced them (incorrectly) that he was a "flip-flopper" -- that he had "voted for it before he voted against it" -- that he didn't have a moral center. Commitment is an independent variable in politics and it is especially important to swing voters -- who by definition are not strongly wedded to partisan positions. When people say they hate "typical politicians" they mean they hate candidates who put a finger in the air to test the political winds before they tell you where they stand. They want public officials who have core beliefs and stand up for them.
That's why it was so stupid for some Democrats who had voted for the health care reform bill in the first House vote last year to vote against it this time. Their new vote won't matter to hardcore "Obamacare" haters - the Republicans will say they voted for it anyway. But for swing voters their flip-flop is disastrous. The Republicans will run ad after ad reminding swings that Congressman X is a flip-flopper. And of course - in the bargain - their vote served to demobilize their base and will ultimately depress Democratic turnout. Not so smart.
Rule #8: Stay on the offensive. Throughout the next six months, Democrats must stay on offense. We must go after Republicans for the failed policies of the past that led to the recession. We must stay on the offense campaigning for our solutions. They will obstruct and do everything they can to create diversion (e.g. death panels) and generate fear. We can't take their bait.
Rule #9: Keep winning. People vote for - and turn out for - winners not losers. The bandwagon is also a critical independent variable. Winning, by itself, increases candidate favorability. The progressive bandwagon is now out of the mud and rolling again. We can't let up. We have to press our advantage to win on financial reform, fixing the broken immigration system, clean energy and jobs - as well as appointments and remaking education reform. Process won't matter at all to voters. Even the "process" debates of the last few weeks have already begun to fade. No one cares about how something is done... only that it is done and how it affects them.
Rule #10: It's the economy, stupid. In the end the most important variable in affecting the midterm elections will be people's personal perception of whether the economy is improving for them and their families. The Administration and Congress must focus like a laser on creating jobs - even at the expense of higher short-term federal deficits. And voters need to see Democrats fighting for jobs with every ounce of their energy.
Everything that can be done, should be done, but small-ball "jobs" initiatives are not likely to be enough. America needs another major signature jobs initiative like Congressman George Miller's proposal to directly create a million additional jobs.
A major jobs initiative is not only good politics - it is absolutely good economics. The only way to kickstart broadly-shared economic prosperity is to assure that there are enough jobs that pay a good living wage. "Top-down" simply won't work.
A lot of political water will flow under the bridge between now and November 2nd. In large measure the outcome of the midterm elections is in our hands. If Democrats do what we need to do, there is no question that we have the ability to achieve our goals and set the stage for continued progressive success in the two years leading up to the Presidential election in 2012.
Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.
Dan Seals: Reforming Higher Education: Key to Our Competitive Edge
THIS is why I helped form the Green Party in my county. It was as easy as typing www.gp.org. Now after 30 years of being lied to and disappointed by the Democrats I voted for, I am actully fighting for local change on MY terms.
A steamroller would have provided a more polite dismissal of virtually every issue in the agenda. The DLC based Democratic coalition in the WH and Congress have successfully beaten the progressive caucus into submission. After everything, including a defacto petition to Democratic leadership regarding the public option, progressives fell into line.
We would be naive to believe this wasn't duly noted by the Democratic leadership. As the Bankers have become invulnerable to risk, the Dem leadership is flush with proven knowledge that the progressives have been bent to their will, and they will go forward accordingly.
We are no longer at the table.
Search out progressive candidates across the nation. Blog for them, send them money. If you are lucky enough to have one running at home, get out and actively support them.
As for the rest of the Dems and all Repubs, it's time to burn down their village to save us.
I have a prediction to make!
I predict that over the course of this spring and summer and into next fall, thirty years of insipid, late 20th century, political rhetoric will have quietly been placed into perpetually sealed time capsules buried into the backyards of an awful lot of Americans who are simply too busy reinventing an economy that neither Republican or Democratic leaders have managed to accomplish within their particular political motivations during this time.
The reason for this prediction is that the vast majority of the new 21st century industrial knowledge we have collectively been processing as a nation will have finally broken through the political walls Washington has built up to defend itself from the American public for far too long.
As within the next six months these walls will begin to fall, politicians who find the courage to walk over the rubble and into the villages of the people who elected them will be elected not because of political persuassion but because of pedrsonal conviction.
I'm not saying the national economy will get stronger during the next few months but the local economies of a nation of villages most certainly will. At the point in which they do, politicians will have no choice other than talk about something that is real.
Of course there is one Independent I could vote for, and that would be Bernie Sanders. Which brings me too what we realy need more then anything else, which is a true investigation of the Bush, Chaney gang, real campaign finance reform, and a Third Party. And when I say REFORM, I’m not talking about the BS Obama sold us. He’s just more of the same!
A better way would be to stop governing somewhat to the right of Richard M. Nixon's administration and start acting like Democrats. The recent Massachusetts special election really ought to have demonstrated this, but instead it only appears to have launched Obama back into campaign mode, where his golden voice utters empty words that for some reason still have the ability to inspire the gullible.
Since the Democratic party has no monopoly on the gullible, this will likely have at best mixed results. Why not actually walk the walk that would attract the more discerning as well?
For those who criticize the fundings of our military...have you ever noticed that the military is actually a constitutional responsibility of the federal government. Have you ever noticed that its funding is literally dwarfed by the cost of all our social programs which are under the constitution outside the perview of the constitution unless you reinterpret it to match an agenda that our founders did not intend and certainly would have rejected.
This is the first time in history that the federal government has ever FORCED Americans to BUY anything. Again, so much for being a free people. Can you not see the loss of liberty here? Have you done your homework on what the bill actually says?
The midterms will see dramatic Democratic losses...passage of Obamacare insured what was already a very high likelihood of losses.
The key problem for this administration is that a silent majority of US voters wants two things: A.) A better economy, and B.) Less government intrusion in their lives.
Obama deserves some sympathy for his failure to quickly reverse the economy's downward trend since that was caused by 35 years of Keynesianism and too much Bush Administration spending, especially on foreign wars. On the other hand, Obama's surge in Afghanistan and his foolish decision to continue neo-con foreign policy in Iraq, instead of ending the war, insured even more gluttonous military spending with no end in sight. As far as the Patriot Act and other Draconian civil liberties issues, the performance of Obama and the current Congress can be described as nothing less than a 'betrayal'. It is obvious peace on Earth and civil liberties are, to Democrats in Washington, just another empty campaign issue to be ignored at best after getting into office.
The midterms will be a disaster; at the very minimum as bad as Clinton's midterms in 1994.
Despite what the right wing corporate tabloid press says, Democrats will gains seats in both the Senate and the House, if people show up at the polls and vote.
Jonathan Inskeep
Crofton, Maryland
LOL. Yeah, I wouldn't want Americans judging this president's and congress's performance, either, what with the majority of likely voters (55% v. 42%) in favor of HCR repeal, and the 49% (v. 35%) who disapprove of Big Bro's student loan takeover, and the 47% (v. 34%) who disapprove of more regulation of the financial system, and yesterday's USA Today/Gallup poll saying that 50% don't believe Obama deserves reelection, and today's CBS poll showing his approval rating at 44%, and all. Yes, best to steer Independent voters' minds elsewhere, indeed. http://www.gallup.com/poll/politics.aspx Good luck with that.
Poor Niccolo, so widely abused these days when he can't defend himself!
Artificial Intelligence algorithms include the 'tit-for-tat' intelligence:start by co-operating with your counterpart for mutually beneficial outcomes, but in the event your counter-part takes advantage of you, immediately screw them, and then return to co-operation. Repeat.
Ridiculously simple, it consistently outperforms very sophisticated game algorithms - partly because it is so simple and therefore understandable to the other party, who can treat it as reliable.
The problem with the Democrats is that no matter what dirty tricks the Republicans pull (from impeaching Bill to Swift Boating Kerry to threatening to filibuster every senate bill of 2009) the Democrats do NOT respond with a strong statement that they won't tolerate it. Frankly, they're doormats. The Republican strategy is successful only because they know they can rely on Democratic non-retaliation. Why not screw your opponent if they will never call you on it?
Republicans are susceptible to their own tricks, probably moreso since so much of their conduct is immoral. Let's put 20 of them on the board, Palinesque, and relentlessly target them with character assassination so their political careers are over this year and forever. It will be easy to find 20 lying thieving fraudsters among the bunch, and not a single lie will be required.
Then, let's seek bi-partisanship.
It's pretty hard to "not tolerate" impeaching Clinton, what with his having finally admitted his guilt in his plea bargain with prosecutors a few days before leaving the White House, to avoid getting hit by about 13 felony charges. And as long as Kerry keeps those 100, or so, pages of his military record sealed, I don't see how Dems can make a strong statement about Swift Boaters calling for it. (I get the funny feeling Kerry received amnesty from Carter.) As for "not tolerating" Republicans' threats to filibuster every senate bill of 2009, I'm not quite sure what you're talking about, since all through 2009, the Dems had a filibuster-proof majority. The Republicans were powerless to block anything.
Above all, who cares if the Republicans didn't succeed in blocking anything. They are obstructionist in a simple sense: they OBSTRUCT history by not getting in line and voting for Democratic measures. Condemn them! It should end a Republican's career if he did not support Obama. It is not "OK" for them to be against Obama. Perhaps it is racist of them! Perhaps it is pro-corporation of them! Perhaps it is pro-wealth of them! Perhaps it is anti-democratic of them! But whatever it is, it is never OK. It is always a political crime and should be exposed as such.
The two parties are not equal. They are not both "good guys"!
Considering Independents decide elections, I'm thinking that might be quite true: http://www.gallup.com/poll/politics.aspx