Much of the "horse race" coverage of the yesterday's primaries has failed to focus on three key lessons that have important implications for the direction of American politics and the elections this fall:
Lesson #1. Primary challenges are an effective tactic to enforce adherence to the progressive values of the Democratic Party.
Progressive organizations and unions are surely disappointed that they were unsuccessful at upending Senator Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas last night. But they certainly did not "come up empty" as the Washington Post wrote this morning.
No incumbent Democratic member of Congress wants to be subjected to a multi-million dollar, grueling, down-to-the-wire primary challenge by the mainstream base of the its own party. By challenging Lincoln, progressive organizations and labor sent a loud message to other members of Congress that support for insurance companies, corporate polluters, and anti-union conglomerates does not come without a price.
Big campaign contributions from corporate PACs don't mean so much if you have to spend them in tough primary campaigns. Core elements of the Republican Party have used the primary threat effectively for years to maintain discipline in their ranks. The message would have been even louder had Lincoln lost, but it was heard around the Democratic Party none the less.
And the effect of Halter's candidacy on Lincoln's behavior was immediate. It is certainly one reason why Lincoln has become such a champion of tough regulations to crack down on risky behavior by big Wall Street banks that threaten another financial meltdown. Her populist stance on Wall Street regulation is at least partially responsible for her margin of victory.
Ironically, those big Wall Street banks were hoping that if Lincoln lost the primary she would be perfectly willing to compromise her tough provisions away as the Wall Street reform bill is conferenced by the House and Senate. Now Lincoln has every incentive to hang tough on Wall Street reform since she has to struggle to mobilize the Party's disappointed base vote in the fall elections.
These base voters won't vote for her opponent John Boozman, but they could very well sit the election out. The last thing she can afford is to appear that here commitment to tough Wall Street reform was nothing but an attempt to win the Democratic primary. In addition, of course, the notion of holding Wall Street accountable is popular across the Arkansas electorate.
Lesson #2. The Tea Party is becoming an extremist cancer in the Republican Party.
The biggest winner last night was Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Conventional Wisdom's assumption that he faced certain political demise turnout out to be all wrong.
Instead of facing a more mainstream Republican in November, his opponent will be Tea Party affiliated Sharron Angle who wants to privatize Social Security, abolish Medicare and replace it with vouchers, restore the prohibition of alcohol (in Nevada no less), eliminate the Departments of Education and Energy, and store the nation's nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, not too many miles from Las Vegas.
It is true that her "mainstream" Republican opponent, Sue Lowden, looked pretty extreme herself when she proposed bartering chickens for health care. But Angle is way out there -- a million miles from the political mainstream in Nevada.
The Tea Party, of course, was originally organized and funded by Dick Armey and his corporate clients in a bid to defeat the Obama agenda in general and his health care reform bill in particular. It has morphed into a Frankenstein monster that is now loose in the Republican streets and threatens serious damage to the party in the fall. While the Tea Party has helped to energize the Republican base, it is wreaking havoc in primaries and will fuel the Democratic narrative that Republican candidates are extremists and completely out of touch with the aspirations of everyday middle class families -- especially the key swing voting block of seniors.
Many seniors were frightened by the health care bill because they erroneously thought it would cut Medicare. Now they are coming to find that Republicans want to abolish Medicare altogether and replace it with vouchers not worth the paper they're printed on -- not to mention resuscitate George W. Bush's scheme for privatizing Social Security.
One of the problems with candidates like Angle is that -- though many main stream Republicans share her positions -- they aren't stupid enough to say so. Angle, and other Tea Party nominees like Rand Paul, just blurt their positions right out for all the world to see.
And that's not the only problem the Tea Party is causing for the Republican establishment. After losing last night's primary to oppose Democrat Tom Periello of Virginia, one of the Tea Party losers vowed to run as an independent -- effectively splitting the anti-Periello vote. That's great for Periello, who also happens to be one of the most principled and courageous Democrats in of Congress.
Lesson #3. It is increasingly clear the Arizona Immigration Law will damage Republican chances this fall.
The effects of Arizona's draconian "papers please" anti-immigration law are spreading like the oil from the BP's Deepwater Horizon.
Former HP Executive Carly Fiorina presents her self as stylish and 21st Century candidate, but she has taken a firm position supporting Arizona's SB 1070. Fiorina won the primary Tuesday to challenge Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. After some equivocation, former ebay CEO Meg Whitman also firmly backed the "principles" of SB 1070. She was nominated after spending $81 million to challenge former Governor Jerry Brown who wants to return to the Executive Mansion in Sacramento.
Their positions on the Arizona law may have helped them win the nomination, but they may be the kiss of death in the general election. Over five million of California's twenty four million citizens of voting age (21.5%) are Hispanic. They will likely be a decisive block of voters in the fall elections -- and they consider the Arizona law as a direct personal assault.
Not only will their position on the Arizona law become an albatross among persuadable Hispanic voters, it may likely spur large scale Latino turnout. Three million of the five million citizens of voting age are "surge" voters that usually vote only in general elections. But the Arizona law -- and large scale voter mobilization campaigns in the Latino community -- will likely change that.
Support for the Arizona law could spell trouble for other Republicans as well -- not only in California, but in many other swing Senate states like Colorado, Illinois, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania and even Arizona itself.
Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.
(But progressives are really not stupid enough to "let" Republicans win in the fall.)
Lesson #2: Some more voters are finally deciding Party Does Not Trump Person after all, even though they call themselves Tea Baggers instead of Independents. And most voters STILL want officials who will represent THEM, not any ideology or minority or special interest group.
Lesson #3: If you're a rich corporatist, you can use your own money to buy an election, instead of using other people's money. (Of course, it helps when your opponents are pathetic.)
HERE WE ARE!!!!
K.Rove's 'permanent majority' got flushed and SLOWLY but surely the 'baby steps' of the Progressive 'non-violent' revolution is 'pulling at the threads' of the 'mountain' of lies and propaganda used by the right in their campaign.
JUST LIKE, cons were pulling on the threads of the FDR New Deal Policies to get us HERE after 30 years, the momentum has shifted,
EVEN the 'tea party' is evidence!
Where do you think the 'get the gov't out of my medicare' baggers are going to go as they REALIZE Progressives are the ONES who got them their medicare in the first place?
To the 'side' that wants to eliminate their medicare?
TAKE HEART PROGRESSIVES!
politics is 'baby steps' and after being battered by the 'right', we are going in the right direction!
KEEP THE FAITH!
The real enemy within is she/he who expects miracles after 25 years of Repulsive Party rule. Republicans have been deregulating, making the top 2% richer while raising the taxes on the rest of us. It's just that they are so much better at manipulating the fears of the prejudiced and uninformed.
I hope Obama keeps thumbing his nose at working people and the left. The unions will stay home, and I'm staying with them. It is past time for a real third party in this country to balance out the right and crazy right.
Robert Creamer, I think the insights in your article are good, so please don't think I am quibbling when I recall that Jerry Brown didn't live in the Governor's mansion when he was governor. He found it excessive.
faved
Fiorina just used media smarts to fool everyone darn one of the people who believe that the "off-mic" comments were accidental.
The whole reality TV thing that started ten years ago(!) should have alerted you that this would be the case in politics. It is a way to communicate, get coverage for the so-called "gaffe", carve herself out as a centrist in a blue state by separating from right-wing, get coverage for the eventual apology to Hannity to regain her right-wing stats, show herself as a genuine person, get more coverage if Boxer should dare to show up with a new hairstyle..lots of wins in this one.
Meanwhile will you believe everything that is fed you or will you start using your brains, folks?
Who wants to vote for someone like that?
Everybody who loved the rich bitchy girls in high school.
Selling 'lemming-food'!
pulled some baloney, as far as insuring some Halter areas had few locations
to vote. This is pretty bad if so, but I guess she's still a little better than
a Republican.
an arm of Wall St. and Really Big Business, it was a sure sign she sold out
long ago....but I'll still take someone who votes the right way occasionally
to NEVER ...
Look at Illinois, bankrupt.
California, bankrupt
New York, bankrupt
A record to be proud of.
Having grown up in the south - which has many lovely people and I frequently forget those kind souls when I go on a rampage - well I saw how effective that the GOP's Southern Strategy was. And it's evil spawn is the Tea Party and the policies like the Arizona law. In that, it's not totally all about it's effect just on the Hispanic community any more than the Southern Strategy was merely derogatory to African Americans. It's the effect that it has on everyone of any color and the base instincts it brings out in a certain group of white people. The GOP encouraged that and when they did the ultimate result is an attack on our very identity as a country as a inclusive and fairminded people, codified in a document called the Constitution. They would shred that and create a new one where white people reign, people of other colors "know their place" and rich people get rich and everyone else works to make that happen. They attack our very fabric and I consider it as lethal as any assault from outside.
So I hope you're right. And one thing that makes me smile is that John McCain, who abandoned any pretense to decency in his selection of the Tea Party Queen Sarah Palin and encouraged her to encourage these people to fulfill his own ambitions - may be devoured by them in November and sent packing. I want that.
Keep them talking and then don't let them get away with it!
Keep the faith!
issue by issue Americans are PROGRESSIVE
but have been screamed at for decades by the propaganda-machine!
The Progressive POPULIST accomplishments of the last 100 years CANNOT be denied!
How's that 40hour work week?
fanned
Fanned and faved.