Time for Superdelegates to Ratify Obama's Insurmountable Pledged Delegate Lead and Settle the Democratic Nomination

The handwriting is on the wall. It is virtually impossible for Hillary Clinton to overcome Barack Obama's insurmountable lead in pledged delegates.

The party's superdelegates are faced with only one choice. They must decide whether to ratify the outcome of the primaries and support the candidate with the most pledged delegates, or they must overturn the outcome of the primaries in order to give the nomination to Hillary Clinton.

They will be faced with exactly the same choice now or in June. It is much better for the party -- and for our nominee -- that they make that decision now.

Let's look at the math.

Obama currently has a 167-vote lead among pledged delegates. There are 566 pledged delegates yet to be selected. To overcome Obama's lead, Clinton must win just under 65% of all remaining pledged delegates. That just isn't going to happen.

If you look at the states in question you see why the math is so daunting. Let's say for the sake of argument that Obama doesn't win any other state. Assume he gets only 50% in the states where he has an advantage or is tied in the polls (North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana and Indiana). Then let's assume Hillary blows Obama out -- and gets 70% in each of the states where she has an advantage in the polls (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky, and also Puerto Rico). And we'll throw in Guam for good measure.

Even in that unlikely situation, Hillary doesn't catch Obama. She makes up only 122 of her 167 pledged-delegate deficit.

Or let's look at a more likely scenario where Clinton does very well in the state's where she is favored, but Obama does only modestly well in the others. Let's assume that Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 18 points -- 59% to 41%. She wins West Virginia 71% to 29%, Kentucky 59% to 41% and Puerto Rico 65% to 35%. Now let's assume that Obama wins Oregon 55% to 45%, South Dakota 55% to 45%, North Carolina by only 53% to 47%, and Montana 55% to 45%. Finally, assume that Indiana and Guam are draws: 50% to 50%.

If that were the outcome of the next two and a half months of primaries, Clinton would gain only 50 of the 167 delegates she needs to catch Obama in the pledged-delegate count. At the end of the day, Obama would still have a lead of 117 pledged-delegates.

There is simply no plausible scenario where Clinton surpasses Obama in pledged delegates. So in June the superdelegates will be faced with the same choice they are faced with today: give the nomination to Obama who leads in pledged delegates, or give it to Clinton who has lost the primaries.

If the superdelegates choose the latter course -- now, or in June -- they will fracture the Democratic Party. If they wait until June to declare for Obama and confirm his nomination, they give John McCain two-and-a-half more months to smile and be "presidential" while Barack and Hillary (and their surrogates) are tearing each other to pieces.

The next two-and-a-half-months could easily resemble a three-way race, where two of the candidates savage each other with negatives and the third one emerges from the fray as the unscathed winner.

Hillary Clinton has argued that the super-delegates were intended to be part of the process in order to look out for the long-term interests of the Democratic Party. On that point she is right. They should do their duty and confirm the will of the primary voters by throwing their support to Barack Obama now.

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on Amazon.com.

Comments

[americanworker]

all of you BHO cult members would drink his coolaid cause it is a prophet who will lead you to salvation and utopia ! get a grip. We have a real election going on , not American Idol.

[mrsnow]

I totally agree with Robert Creamer it is time for the superdelegates to ratify Obama - the democratic party is being torn apart by the clintons and the nov. election is being handed to mccain

[mjc]

Creamer, you just don't seem to get it. Yes, there is no way Hillary Clinton is going to surpass Obama in pledged delegates. Given. But the popular vote might change and be in favor of Hillary instead of Barack. And the superdelegates are not some sort of super-duper "anti-biotic" for Democrats for who to choose as their nominee. It has been around for some time and perhaps you need to ask Gary Hart how effective they were. There are there in case there is a problem, such as now exists.

[b2008]

And it might snow on July 4th. Anything is possible. But I wouldn't place a bet on the popular vote changing for Hillary if I were you. She is not Mother Mary!

[kettletop]

The popular vote may change because McCain is the presumptive nominee and Rush Limbaugh wants his rabid views to make certain that HC is the nominee because she is easier and safer to hate.. Recent Gallup polls show Obamais preferred 52% to 42%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105841/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Now-52-Clintons-42.aspx
That is a popular vote...and isbased on what we know today.
Clinton is losing ground because she is tryiing to win by bringing down Obama instead of lifting herself up. She is telling people that McCain is a better choice than Obama. She is not winning friends and influencing people, which is why Bill Richardson had to endorse Obama--he showed great courage going against the Clinton machine which immediately showed their class by naming him Judas.

[goodgulf]

Super delegates have to vote for who is electable in november, not who was electable 6 months ago. If all the publicity about rev Wright's speechs had come out last fall, there would be no Obama campaign. He would have withdrawn months ago. Obama has so much baggage that the neocon attack machine will make McBush look like the least dangerous candidate.

[b2008]

Reverend Wright's speech has nothing to do with this race so stop trying to persuade people into thinking something that is truly false. Have you even listened to Reverent Wright's COMPLETE sermon. Evidently not! Plus it's Obama running for President, not the Reverend as much as you people like to bring him up. You should be ashamed.

[kettletop]

Obama is more electable than Clinton today. Obama supporters know that 1) the clips you saw are not nearly as inflammatory in context and 2) he address this situation well.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105841/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Now-52-Clintons-42.aspx
Up to date polls say you are wrong.
Hillary should stay the course? Her campaign is about to turn a corner? If she cuts and runs, the terrorists win?

[goodgulf]

If rev Wright's "goddamn America" speechs had come out months ago, there would be no Obama candidacy. He wouldn't have won any states and would have dropped out of the race early. If Obama's campaign is in the dirt for the rest of the states. Then the super delegates have to take that into account and vote for who is electable in november, not who was electable 6 months ago. Besides, Obama has supplied the neocons with so much ammo for their attack ads, I don't see how he can survive an election.

[b2008]

Evidently you can't see because you have Reverend Wright blinders on. Again, the Reverend has nothing to do with this election. And I praise Obama for not "throwing him under the bus" because people like you can't see for looking.

[JoeBeets]

You don't think Rev Wright will be used by McCain and the GOP 527's to tarnish Obama as just another "hate-america" liberal? It DOES have something to do with the General Election campaign, for sure.

The GOP got people to believe that a Vietnam Vet with 3 purple hearts was a COWARD and unfit for the Presidency! Nuance is not the American voters' strong point.

I am not saying Rev Wright kills the Obama nomination, but that we need to realize that it hurts it alot for the GE. I would vote for any Democrat over McCain, but I am not your average American voter.

[Tumult]

As long as both candidates are making the case for why they are the better leader or why their policies would be the best for the country it is a win for the Democrats. But when you have either side providing talking points for the Republicans, or reinforcing images that will be used against the Democratic candidate in the general election, you have to wonder why the primary race should be allowed to continue. When a third party introduces some misinformation about another candidate they should be willing to defend each other. Take the fight to the Republicans not the other Democrats in the race. Focuing on Iraq and the Economy is good, focusing on each other is bad. They need to tell us why they deserve to be President not why the other person doesn't. That said when Hillary and her advisors came to the conclusion that the only way to upset Obama's momentum was to go negative and "throw the kitchen sink" at him she should have conceded the race. And with the voter fraud in Ohio and exit polling indicators in Texas the superdelegates need to be mindful of Republicans following Rush's advice to influence the primary.

[b2008]

All of the above comments MUST be from Hillary's camp because none of you can see the forest for the trees. It's amazing how you have been conditioned to want a "fight" when there is no fight here. Common sense seems to have "left the building". Evidently the media has done their job in brainwashing the majority of Americans into thinking this is the way politics is supposed to be. In all my years, I have never seen such a display of nastiness, meanness, abusiveness as I've seen in a campaign before. And I know I'm older than most of you. This is NOT how America is supposed to choose a president or any elected official. I'm truly ashamed at all of you who wants Hillary to fight Obama just for the thrill of the fight. God must be crying in heaven to what we have become as a people.

[provoice]

Granted, many of us are totally fed up with the politics of dirt and distraction EVEN BEFORE THE REPUBLICANS start their B.S. Machine...

However I find it difficult to believe there are that many stupid people in this country that they would shoot themselves in the foot by voting for another 4 years of Bushcrap!

Bush and the neo-cons have caused a nation-threatening disaster of our country and McInsane wants to "STAY THE COURSE"????

Just more proof to me that we need to re-establish our insane asylums in this country!

[b2008]

Thank you Jesus. There is a human being left among us. Praise the Lord and let's end this madness. Thank you "provoice" for making my day!

[crazyv]

As a staunch Obama supporter I firmly disagree with all the calls for HRC to withdraw before all the states have voted. She still has a chance albeit very small one of overcoming Senator Obama's lead in both pledged delegates and the popular vote. If Sen. Obama was in her position I would expect him to keep fighting as well. I think each candidate owes tthe people who have supported them to continue fighting until the last vote has been counted. The added advantage of having Sen. Clinton stay in the race tells us a lot about her. She reflects a position that winning is all that counts and it doesn't matter what you have to do to win and that winning is not about a larger cause but about yourself. If you believe that then clearly she is your candidate. I would note that the civilized world has agreed that even in war "all" is not fair and it too has rules.

[JoeBeets]

I think McCain voted for the law that say there ARE NO RULES in the war on terrorism. Figure that...the tortured Vietnam Vet who votes FOR torture.

[LeeFromVA]

Now we know what they meant when they said Hillary Clinton was polarizing. She has polarized the Democrats, and if she steals the nomination she will polarize the nation even more than Dubya has already.

[Grizzlies]

While I may agree with Mr. Creamer's math, I do not agree with his assumption that the remaining states should give up the election because of an "insurmountable lead in pledged delegates" for Obama. May I remind Creamer that this nation is a democracy. EVERY VOTE, EVERY CITIZEN, AND EVERY STATE NEEDS TO VOTE EVEN IF CREAMER'S MATH IS CORRECT!!!!

[PracticalMagic]

Exactly !!! I find it disturbing that the Obamaniacs want to shut the process down - is there more in Obama's past that can blow up like the Reverend Wright pastor disaster? Is that what they are afraid of?

[Didi47]

Practical Magic:

Yup - they're in a panic because more and more truth about Obama is surfacing, despite Herculean efforts to suppress it from the public.

Too disgraceful for words. The media is also worried about being called to task for deliberately misleading the public as well, and therefore have been super busy promoting the latest... Clinton should step aside... she's dividing the party etc... when in actuality it's the exact opposite. Obama and the Republican media puppets - have been and are the ones who have created and promoted the divisiveness - and they've done so willingly and knowingly. They are disgraceful!

[b2008]

I really don't understand why everyone is coming down on the Obamaniacs as you call them. The gist of the story is just to tell us that the nomination is over for Hillary numerically. That's all. No one is suggesting that we disenfranchise the remaining voters. Let the process proceed is how I feel. Mr. Cramer is only indicating that when it's over, Hillary won't be able to win by delegate count nor popular count more than likely. Why everyone is bashing the Obama supporters is beyond me. We never called for the end of the process. Also, most of you are sitting and waiting for another "newspaper" moment of rag journalism to pop up on Obama to keep the thrill alive. To me, that's the hype of this campaign. The more crap they put out, the more they can sway voters from seeing the fox in the hen house.

[oracle99]

If Clinton and Obama's roles were reversed it would have been over already. Unfortuantely the DNC and others big wigs in the party seem afraid to challenge the mythical Clinton clout.

[PracticalMagic]

It should be over now. Obama cannot win the general election ... the anti-American rhetoric that he condones by his actions, not by his defensive words, will kill his chances with large swaths of the American "silent majority" - not like the vocal Obamaniacs on this site.

[b2008]

It's a good thing you DON'T speak for most of Americans because MOST AMERICANS LISTEN to what Obama says, not what other idiots say who want to destroy him for whatever idiotic reason. That's exactly why you people are the "silent majority" because you have your earplugs in and haven't heard a word. Keep dreaming and continue on down the lane Dorothy! The rest of us are in the REAL world.

[Darksider]

The longer this goes on the harder the reconciliation will be. About 20% of Clinton supporters and about the same of Obama supporters stated in a recent poll that they would cross over and vote for McCain than vote for the other democratic candidate. That number is just going up. Frankly, I'm one of them.

I think that there's not enough votes in the remaining contests to push either candidate over the top. Also i think the party doesn't gain, in fact only loses by waiting.

I think the party should make the superdelegates get off the fence and vote now. I don't care who they vote for but they need to decide a nominee. They can either ratify Obama's lead which he's had for quite sometime now and won't be relinquishing or they can go with their girl, the insider candidate HRC. Not in June, not after NC. Do it now. PA, NC and Puerto Rico can't make a difference at this point. Do it this weekend. Have Howard Dean's office call each superdelegate who hasn't endorsed and tell them to vote now or he'll decide their vote for them. And come monday this bloodbath will be over and the healing can begin. And when the insiders vote for HRC I can relax noting that my vote has just been decided for the old guy.

[jmk65]

don't you think that the remaining races will show momentum? and momentum is important! if for some reason hillary upsets in NC that is a big deal. if obama continues to show strength then it will be more clear in regards to him. not to mention the fact that the people of PA, NC, WV etc. shoudl have some reason to go to the polls. we all need to feel a part of the process.

just my two cents...

[AreYouFibbing]

Creamer.....he can't make 2025 delegates and the fact that you are willing to disenfranchise voters proves you are truly in the Obama camp. Maybe another line of work is something you should look into.

[Larry Buchite]

How does Clinton win and still hold the party together. She need to average about 65% of the remaining delegates. All she can do is try and make Obama unelectable and if she still can not win then hope McCain does so she can run again in 2012.

[Didi47]

Larry Buchite:

I've been hearing the media 'pundits' spout the newest 'mantra' of: All she has to do is try and make Obama unelectable'. Here's more anti Hillary media bull being jammed down our throats! Obama has made himself unelectable! Get it? Obama has made himself unelectable! And he managed to do it despite the never ending - exhausting - aniti Hillary - pro Obama - pounding we've had to endure for the last 4 motnhs.

Good grief - the media and the Obama camp - have even managed to sell the - Hillary is not allowed to say ANYTHING negative about Obama - bullshit! But of course it's highly encouraged - to defile Hillary. It's even become THE trendy new MSM - Sport!

Well - what say we get honest and real here... for a CHANGE. Had the public been aware of Rev. Wright's preachings and teachings - at the beginning of this race.... a good majority of those votes would have been Hillary's. That is undeniable. The MSM and the Obama camp deliberately withheld the TRUTH - and certainly avoided any scrutiny - by continuing and encouraging - the vilification of Bill and Hillary Clinton.
And now they are working on the newest PHONEY Claim... that Hillary is dividing the party!

This is getting sicker and sicker every day! It's FRAUD GONE WILD!

[bdl0715]

If Hillary won a high proportion of the states left, she still can not overtake Barack in the delegate count. Robert Creamer is in the Obama camp. He is the husband of Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky of Illinois, an early Obama supporter, but that does not mean his argument is incorrect. Unless Hillary wins PA by a huge majority, I mean something like 70-30, then she should drop out for the good of the party.

I hope Obama wins, but I will happily support Hillary if she is the nominee. I do hope Hillary names Obama as her running mate then. That may be the only way she can win the White House.

[lafcadio]

Voters are not being disenfranchised if the nomination is wrapped up now. Did you read the article? Hillary can not catch up to Obama. He has to virtually take his name off the ballot for her to catch up. In past presidential primaries, the nominee is decided by Super Tuesday and I never hear anyone crying about voters in states that vote after Super Tuesday are disenfranchised.

[chlllfactor]

What is really scary is Clinton is bound and determined to steal this election. She wants the pledged delegates released so they can 'vote for whom they want.' The arrogance and audacity of the Clinton Camp is absolutely disgusting! If you can not win the nomination honestly, then steal it. My, God! What is Clinton going to do next? By the time the nomination process is over, the Democratic party is going to be in shambles.

[crazyv]

thats the audacity of hope!!

[b2008]

No, that's the audacity of a crazy person. She's a psychopath.

[Larry Buchite]

Supper delegates a group of about eight hundred are so special they get two votes. What ever happened to one person one vote. The party will always be divided as long as they get to vote twice. There is one thing that can save us all Jesse Ventura is thinking about running in 2008 he is vetted all you have to do is read his book it's all in there. He is a combat veteran that tells it like it is if you like it or not. In a two way race he wins in a three way race he has a good chance.