Two years ago today, just two months before the 2008 Election, John McCain led Barack Obama for president in the compilation of national polls assembled by Pollster.com. The Democratic polling project at Democracy Corps had McCain up by two points. As everyone knows, on Election Day Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%. A lot can change in 56 days.
Time for the pundits and prognosticators to take a deep breath. Despite all of their dire predictions of Democratic demise, the Republicans have not yet seized control of either chamber and I, for one, predict that they won't any time soon.
Democrats will certainly take losses in the coming Midterms. But the odds are good that they will emerge from the elections with working majorities in both houses.
No one doubts that pulling the economy out of the massive ditch into which it careened under George Bush has, and continues to be, a Herculean task. It is, of course, a task that has been made much more difficult by the virtually unified opposition of Republicans to Democratic initiatives to energize the economy. Two years of economic pain have made voters unhappy.
And this difficulty is compounded by the natural tendency of voters to turn out Members of Congress from the President's party in the first Mid-term after his inauguration.
However, six major factors will work to limit Democratic losses.
1). The voters do not view Republicans as the answer to America's problems. And in fact, a late August NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that they actually have a less favorable view of Republicans than Democrats.
It is true that only 36% viewed Democrats positively compared with 43% who view Democrats negatively. But a mere 30% view Republicans positively compared with 43% who view them negatively.
In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, voters were split down the middle (43% to 43%) as to whether they preferred Republican or Democratic control of Congress. There is every indication that this will be the Republican high water mark as voters begin to focus in on the race and Democrats begin to introduce them -- and their beliefs -- to their Republican opponents.
2).The Republicans' major institutional allies are viewed with even more approbation than the Party itself. The economy has made voters sour on elites of all sorts. They are furious with Wall Street (10% positive to 53% negative), Corporate America (12% positive to 42% negative), and the Health Insurance Industry (12% positive to 56% negative).
If Democratic candidates do their job of connecting their Republican opponents with their base constituencies, their support will plummet.
The critical issue for Democrats is to establish that they are populist outsiders, not elitist insiders. That dynamic is much more important in the coming election than whether a candidate is a Republican or Democrat.
3). There is not a large-scale inclination among voters to reject progressive-Democratic values and adopt conservative-Republican values in their place. When the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll asked if Government should do more, or whether it is doing too many things, voters divided evenly 47% to 47%. When presented a core Democratic and core Republican message, the same number of voters (25% ) found the Democratic message very convincing as those who found the Republican message very convincing.
4). Elections are not simply referenda on the state of the country or the economy. They are choices between two candidates. In a generic context, voters can be angry and dismissive about a current officeholder if they are unhappy with the current state of their lives. But if Democrats do their jobs right, each race will be turned into a choice between two living, breathing people. The more that voters focus on the Republican alternative, the less abstract that choice will become -- the more they will become acquainted with the qualities of the alternative. Whereas once they might have been happy to throw the incumbent out, they will become increasingly focused on the fact that he or she will be replaced by someone else who has negatives of his own.
Voters cast their ballots for people - not concepts. One of the big advantages for Democrats this cycle is that many Republican nominees are politically inexperienced radical extremists whose views -- once voters learn them -- are completely outside of the mainstream of American politics.
The best known are Tea Party-Republican Senate candidates like Sharron Angle in Nevada who wants to replace Medicare with vouchers for private insurance, Rand Paul in Kentucky who opposes the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Joe Miller in Alaska who wants to phase out Social Security, and then there is the potential nominee in Delaware, Christine O'Donnell, who opposes masturbation.
And there are many lesser-known House candidates who are just as extreme in their views - and who have no economic program other than the proposals that were put in place by President Bush, that yielded the worst economic collapse in sixty years and cost eight million Americans their jobs.
Some of the positions these candidates take are downright radioactive. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that only 21% of voters were either totally enthusiastic or comfortable with privatizing Social Security, whereas 68% were either very uncomfortable or had some reservations about it -- a difference of 47%. And feelings were intense. Forty-nine percent said they felt very uncomfortable about privatization, while only 9% were enthusiastic.
As they come to know these people -- and their views, and other negatives that will be exposed in the course of the campaign -- many of voters who might have considered voting against a Democratic incumbent in the abstract will reconsider.
What's more, many Democrats begin with sizeable positives with voters that they have developed over many years of constituent services, and personal relationships.
Republicans were almost certain they would take the southwest Pennsylvania 12th CD in the special election last May after longtime Congressman Jack Murtha died. But in the end Democrat Mark Critz defeated Republican Tim Burns 53% to 46% -- largely on the strength of the personal relationships he had developed over years of working on the Murtha district staff.
You see the same thing in many districts that are in play - or were expected to be in play - this November:
Democrats will also likely capture a number of formerly Republican and open seats in November.
5). The enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats will almost certainly narrow.
Many commentators point to the "enthusiasm gap" that indicates that Republican base voters are more likely to turn out than Democrats. That gap will narrow as it becomes increasingly clear to base Democratic constituencies what is at stake in the election.
Progressives will become more and more engaged as they understand the consequences of a big business, radical right victory in the fall.
African Americans will be especially energized by the attack on the first African American President.
Hispanic turn out will be turbo-charged by the outrageous disrespect shown the Hispanic community by Republicans who propose the elimination of the 14th Amendment to keep Hispanic children from becoming citizens -- and the "papers please" law passed by Republicans in the Arizona legislature.
Young people will step up as they see the specter of the Empire Striking Back.
And turnout will be boosted by far superior Democratic Get Out the Vote operations being mounted by the Democratic Committees.
6). Democratic Campaigns will be better organized and in many cases have more resources.
Under Michael Steele, the Republican National Committee is a mess. While the Republican Senate and House Committees are better organized, both have been hamstrung by their dependence on the RNC.
The Democratic National Committee has been well managed and includes Obama's Organize for America (OFA) operation that has been systematically reaching out to first time Obama voters for months.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has one of the best field operations in years and is staffed with highly-skilled political operatives.
The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee is also well organized and has been blessed with extremist Tea Party candidates that can be introduced in all of their blazing glory to the voters in the 56 days that remain. And in most cases, Democratic Senate candidates have the financial muscle to deliver their message.
The Bottom Line
It ain't over 'til it's over.
While Democrats and progressives have a great deal to do in the next two months; while we should be ever mindful of the tragedy that could befall us if we let down our guard; I believe that Democrats will emerge from the November elections in much better shape than the doomsayers and prognosticators are predicting.
In 1994 Democrats were caught flat-footed by the Republican onslaught. We were completely unprepared to mount a defense.
This year there is a danger that the opposite will be true -- that fear and defeatism turn into self-fulfilling prophesies.
Voters don't support losers. They don't support candidates or parties who are always on the defense.
To make certain we win this fall, Democrats have to shake off the doomsaying, and take the offensive. If we act like winners, we'll win November 2nd.
Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.
Paul Loeb: The Election Needs You, Broken Heart and All
Fight Palingenetic Disorder. Never vote for a Republican.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PalingenetÂic_ultranaÂtionalism
This administration has confirmed many of the conclusions of Prof. Andrew Bacevich's "Washington Rules" with its extension of assaults on personal liberties, the continuation of torture, the confirmation of military expenditures and more. Clearly elections do not matter and the citizens are beginning to understand that. It is no longer a matter of liberal or conservative. They both are only interested in maintaining their own elite position.
Folks that have spent the last thirty years being productive and trusting their politicians to be only slightly corrupt have figured out that these folks were asleep when the foxes emptied the hen house.
The Republicans who refuse to debate have a hidden agenda and they do no want us to know where they stand.
I'll be voting for candidates who clearly explain what they expect to accomplish and how they propose to to do it. There are a lot of lightweight blog posters all over Huff and other sites just trashing Obama, thinking that has some sort of meaning. It doesn't.
For example, we've seen countless negative ads coming from Linda McMahon about how she is "going to do things differently in Washington" about how she is going to "create job growth", and other empty promises. She has not revealed one single detailed proposal nor has she accepted any debates. Why? It is because she has a hidden agenda and she does not want us to know where she stands.
She will be finding out that elections cannot be bought if you have nothing constructive to offer. I'm going to start volunteer work for my local Democratic office for Dick Blumenthal this week because I know what he specifically wants to accomplish and I like what I hear.
As for Linda, she can go back to the WWE, sleezy women's mud wrestling, abuse of steroids and the unexplained untimely deaths of her wrestlers from wrestling ring injuries.
Short of a 50 seat pickup it will look like a good night for the democrats.
Of course, if the Republican's take one or both houses of congress, it won't be the worst thing that could happen, long term. At least the GOP will finally have some stake in whether or not America succeeds. You didn't expect to appeal to their patriotism, did you?
Back on Topic -
I said from day one when all this BS started that the Dems will not loose and that the Media is setting themselves up for a huge bag of disappointment. In Swing States its hard to imagine a Tea Party Candidate winning ANYTHING AT ALL. In the South? Who cares, ass-backwards anyway we should have let the South Secede, after all many are still mad about the "War of Northern Aggression". Again this is NOT the majority of people, just enough to elect morons to office and enough to start "Concern Citizens Councils"
Boxer and Brown win a tight one, for sure, but not that TIGHT. I can see most of the Progressive Dems to win easily, for the Conserva-Dems, I ain't so sure.
Oh no you didn't...Now the republicans will try to duplicate our Democrat efforts as they did by placing sarah palin on their ticket to counter Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton, and the dnc selected michael steele to counter President Barack Obama.
Many republicans were in awe of the Democrat Internet Election Machine, and to some extent tried to implement a duplication of the effort. Democrats engaged an energetic, young, Internet knowledgable, grassroot Democrat base.
Not to long ago many rural homes had to be "re-directed from rabbit [republican] earred equipment" at the expense of taxpayer dollars [under the guidance of the US Government] in order to receive TV signals. This group needs the help of the Democrats to come into the 21st Century. We welcome them.
That's a page out of Fahrenheit 451 by Heinlein!
The silent revolution of the Book People can't be far behind.
KILL YOUR TELEVISION!
If you think the political rhetoric is bad now, wait until you see how conservatives heads explode if they don NOT win as expected.
America at large has rejected them for 4 years, if it happens again, rather than explode into a impotent xenophobic rage, perhaps they should look at their political positions and change accordingly.
a) Keeping the faith that the Dems are trying to help Main St. though it's slow going,
or
b) Putting the GOP back at the steering wheel, those folks who got us into this mess in the first place and will be only to happy to turn the whole shebang around so they can reset the button to get back the advantages rich folks have, fuggedabout the working people.
The choice is clear--vote for Main St. if you don't want the rich folks who have a lot and want to keep it that way steering the nation.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
Things will not improve any time soon, thanks to the increased but still unknown costs of Obamacare, but they might get worse.
The way for a Dem candidate to make it is being a pro-Freedom Democrat along the lines of JFK.
Also, if JFK were president today, the Republicans would no doubt impeach him for having extramarital affairs in the White House.
While I'd love to say I'm completely confident of our abilities to keep the Senate (people are stupid, we're keeping the House) I think it is an uphill battle because of how close we are in numbers. Problem is that Senate dems are really bad at giving reasons to vote for them.
Point being that I think all the doomsday talk in the MSM about how terrible dems chances are is vastly overstated.