Why Hillary Clinton's Slash-and-Burn Politics May Hurt Her More Than Obama

The only way for Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination would be a precipitous collapse in Barack Obama's candidacy. Obama's pledged-delegate lead is virtually insurmountable. And Super Delegates seem increasingly inclined to go with the pledged-delegate winner.

Rather than respect the outcome of the primaries, the Clintons have decided to do everything they can to make Obama appear to be a risky general election choice to the remaining Super Delegates and the media. But Clinton's negative tactics may actually hurt her candidacy more than they hurt Obama's. There are three reasons:

First, a negative attack has to ring true to the people you are attempting to persuade. Initial polls seem to indicate that most of the people who are receptive to the "Obama-is-a-condescending-'elitist'-argument" already supported Hillary in the primary before the attacks began. Clinton's attacks may rally some of her troops, but the argument doesn't seem to be that persuasive to actual undecided voters.

Of course one reason may have to do with the credibility of the messenger. It's tough to attack someone else for "elitism" if you've spent the last 16 years in Washington as First Lady and Senator, and your family brought in $107 million over the last seven years. Assuming an eight-hour workday, that means that Bill and Hillary made as much every two hours as Barack Obama made each full year that he organized out-of-work steelworkers for a coalition of church groups.

Second, the fact of a negative attack itself can backwash on the candidate who makes it. Making negative attacks makes people look mean and unlikable. That is a particular problem when the audience for your attacks includes Democratic primary voters and Super Delegates who really want to win the White House in November.

Clinton's negative attacks on Obama have especially begun to backfire with Super Delegates. I've talked to a number of undecided Super Delegate Members of Congress who are furious at her willingness to attack the candidate who they consider almost certain to be the Democratic nominee.

Most think that Clinton has no more than a 10% chance of winning the nomination, so the odds are great that she is doing nothing now but legitimating the Republican narrative for the general election. The story line that Democrats are "elitists" who look down on middle class people is taken right out of Karl Rove's playbook. It's been used for decades to convince everyday Americans to re-elect Republicans that outsource their jobs, destroy their unions and lower their wages. Many Democratic Super Delegates are apoplectic that Clinton would give credibility to that Republican line of attack on their likely standard-bearer.

We've already seen examples of high profile Super Delegates (like Bill Richardson) who have gone with Obama partially because of Clinton's negativism. We'll likely see many more.

Finally, her attacks have allowed the Obama campaign - and the media - to parody her desperate attempts to appear "working class." When Obama conjured up images of Hillary Clinton sitting in a duck blind it called to mind those unforgettable pictures of Michael Dukakis in a tank.

People want leaders who are self-confident, who are comfortable in their own skin. Candidates need to connect with voters by demonstrating the things that they really share, not pretending to be someone they are not. Hillary Clinton is a long time advocate for gun control - not "Annie Oakley." Shooting back Crown Royal with a beer chaser in a neighborhood tap just isn't Hillary Clinton.

The Clintons may have viewed Obama's "bitterness" remark as the opportunity they'd been looking for to throw a long "Hail Mary" pass in the closing minutes of the primary battle. I'm betting Barack Obama picks it off and runs it back for a touch down.

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist, and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on amazon.com.

Comments

[Disparaged]

Robert; this is an excellent article and the absolute TRUTH! I pray that at least by the end of the Indiana primary the SDs don't just sit back any longer, but will go ahead and announce their endorsements for Obama just so we don't have to hear another fu*king word from Annie Oakley, drinking and cavorting with the "middle class" who disgust her, Bosnia sniper fire, Ireland peace, NAFTA and her Columbia ties along with best buddy Penn, and all the other BS she has tried to get us to accept. I just can't take another minute of that GRATING, JARRING, SMUG TIGHT ASSED voice and those god awful faces she makes trying to get us to BELIEVE her shit. She is just a LIAR of the worst kind - it never ends and I desparately want it to END - NOW!

[dartagnan]

"The story line that Democrats are "elitists" who look down on middle class people is taken right out of Karl Rove's playbook. It's been used for decades to convince everyday Americans to re-elect Republicans that outsource their jobs, destroy their unions and lower their wages."

BRAVO!!! That is it precisely. The Repukelicans denounce Democrats as "elitists" as they load their golf bags into the Mercedes to drive to the country club, and working-class voters -- distracted from the real issues by sideshows like gay marriage, gun control and illegal immigration -- never catch on to the hypocrisy.

Why is Hillary using Rove's playbook when it has been obvious for months that it's hurting her more than helping her? Well, some speculate that she wants Obama to lose to McCain so she'll get another shot in four years. I hate to be that cynical but that theory is looking more and more plausible.

[MrZrule]

If Hillary was shooting ducks in the summertime she's worse than a liar she's a poacher.

[ignrnthllblly]

Does this mean that as President, Hillary would refuse to pardon the White House turkey on Thanksgiving?

(....She really is pinned down by sniper fire, you know. Just don't tell her SHE's the sniper...)

[Disparaged]

LOL. Good line - she really is the SNIPER! How true!

[keriheb]

Hillary lost the election before it began when she premised her election on ENTITLEMENT that was no more than sand castle built before a rising tide as evidenced by:

Iowa she was drowning from the starting gate and never recovered.

New Hampshire - Hillary caught a breath - but the feeling of drowning had taken hold and the Clintons were gasping, crying, finding voice.

Facing SCarolina with deer eyes in headlights was actually realization tsunami was heading towards beach with 50 foot wave, Billy jettisoned black vote in hope of floating to safety in white surf of Super Tuesday - and age old Southern George Wallace strategy Republicans have been using since Nixon.

Super Tuesday - wave receding - Dreams of Castle turned to mud hut but form visible.

Next eleven - TIDAL WAVE - MUD FORM washed away - Hillary drenched - Billy encouraging - Hillary told him to shut up! Campaign floating on log - drifting - broke.

New Campaign strategy - SHOUTING AND CALLING OBAMA NAMES FROM ON TOP OF DRIFTING LOG.

All that is left:

1. Hillary surrogates shouting Obama is getting the nomination because of affirmative action - he is black and not really qualified - "can't you (white) people see?"

2. Hillary recounting sniper fire for love of country, shooting guns with daddy.

3. Hillary claiming she is really one of the white folk and he is not.

This is Hillary's campaign from on top of her drift wood looking at the washed out

[TigrisLily]

Hillary would rather the Republicans retain control of the White House than see another Democrat take it. Her negative campaign at this point seems destined to ensure a Republican victory, not only in the White House, but in Congress as well. She is alienating Democrats as well as Independents. If this concerns the remaining super delegates, they can end it now while we have time to undo all the damage she has done. John McCain is winning them over while these super delegates permit her all the time she needs to destroy every chance we have in November.

[emj2740]

You are 100% correct. Hillary Clinton has realized she will not get the nomination so she now plans to run again in 4 years. I think I heard MCain would not run for a 2nd term (?) Since she has really hurt her fellow democrat Obama this time around, thanks to her Obama will lose and then in 4 years it will be 'see you should have made me the nominee' .

[kickbass]

This is 100% delusion. Four months ago Guiliani was leading McCain, and Hillary was ahead and you don't have any idea what will happen in 4 years.

What really needs to happen now is for Obama to learn to keep his feet out of his mouth...
and then he will probably win.

[OneLiberalLady]

At least the uncommitted superdelegates in states that have already had their primaries go to Obama should jump in with their support. This might end it sooner, which would be a blessing to the Democratic party.

[ResidentChimp]

Hillary is trying to save the Democrat Party from getting creamed in November. It's ludicrous to think and far left elitist liberal is going to get elected.

[cheforacle]

Obama is hardly far left and he is no more elitist than Hillary. They are practically identical on the issues, the major difference being that her health care program is unequivocally more "leftist" as it contains mandates whcih Obama's does not.

[dartagnan]

Thank you for that comment, Mr. Rove.

[rwt1138]

Well, of course it is. There aren't any far left elitists running, so that would have to be one serious write-in campaign. I agree that it is ludicrous to think a write-in candidate could ever become president, but I'm not sure why you'd feel it needed pointing out.

[merle7]

Hillary is attempting to help destroy Obama's chances in the GE. This should be a concern for the Dem party. It's like she thinks since the party might let she and Bill down and possibly lean toward Obama,she would rather destroy the chances for the Dems in Nov.

[emj2740]

Yes, so she can run again in 4 years. But, people who support Obama are not going to forget this for a long time and she won't have a chance in 4 years either.

[cheforacle]

I'm an Obama supporter but I reject the notion that she plans to run again in 2012. At this point she probably still hopes a miracle will occur and she'll get the nomination now. The notion she has planned for 2012 is ridiculous just as those who pretend they know how things are gonna turn out in November. There are probabilities but no certainties in politics. Last September if you had said McCain was gonna be the GOP nominee, most people would've recommended you see a shrink.

[Oldchef]

I'm inclined to agree. If her antics help destroy the Democratic party's chances in the general election, democratic voters will never forgive her and Bill's "legacy" will be in tatters. She would never get another chance. Friends of mine who were passionate supporters of the Clintons last year are getting a real bad taste in their mouths from the Clintons' tactics and her outright lies on the campaign trail. Some have switched to Obama just because of the sleazy tactics and the lies. One friend lamented, " I can't understand why she felt she had to tell whoppers, she didn't need it and it made her look bad".

[dartagnan]

You're right. If Hillary scuttles Obama in the general election she can forget about running for anything as a Democrat again. Or maybe she's planning to switch parties? Wouldn't surprise me. At this point NOTHING she does would surprise me.

[valleygent]

Hillary Clinton and the entire lot of her supporters are not needed to win the election in 2008. The talking pie holes on Cable are all wrong as usual. My suggestion to all of her supporters is to go ahead and vote Rebublican in November as they all so proudly exclaim they intend to do when she is finally forced out. Senator Obama will still win the Presidency, he has the support of many more millions of people than either McCain or Clinton. Most Americans don't vote in the primaries, just a basic review of registered voter numbers will bear that fact out, just watch the voter turn out when they have the opportunity to elect Senator Obama to the White House.. If these so called Clinton Democrats can support a candidate that is naturally dishonest, power drunk, and just plain unpleasant, then they are truly lost causes, the party is better off without these inadequate intellects, its called Evolution.. What Hillary Clinton has managed to achieve with her slimy campaign is to place the American poltical debate at its lowest point intellectually, since the Herbert Hoover administration, and at least those of us who still read history know what happened after that.

[dartagnan]

My hunch is most of the Clintonistas who are now saying they won't vote for Obama in the general will change their minds after (a) they take a good look at the alternative, four years of John McBomb, and (b) their anger and hatred toward Obama are no longer being whipped up by the Clintons.

[crazyv]

I think most Clinton supporters will find the Republican agenda far more distasteful than most Obama supporters. There are plenty of upper income Obama supporters who quite enjoy the extension of the Bush tax cuts. Many of the young people supporting Obama will go back to being disenchanted.

[RichLiberal]

The pledged delegates really need to be divided into 2 categories: popular vote delegates and caucus vote delegates. One will surely find that Hillary is far ahead in popular vote delegates.

One good comparison point is Texas:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX

Hillary won the popular vote 1.4 million to 1.3 million and took the delegates 65 to 61.

However, Texas then had a caucus afterwards for people who voted in the ballot box popular vote and Obama won that 24 thousand to 19 thousand resulting in 38 delegates for Obama and 29 delegates for Hillary.

So, even though Hillary won the popular vote by over 100,000 votes, more that twice as many as the total caucus votes, she ended up losing in pledged delegates.

It is only because of this distorted voter suppressing caucus fiasco that Hillary is not ahead in popular vote, delegates and everything else. The fact that the media refuses to recognize this fact is the basic problem right now and the reason why Obama will never be accepted as the Democratic nominee.

[marla219]

Umm, Huffpo actually has a blog on here discounting this.

Also, you should remember that primaries are different from general elections. The point is to find the candidate with the most hard support. Caucuses measure hard support and activism: the people who caucus will help organize and Get Out The Vote. Clinton doesn't have as much hard support, even though she has plenty of people who will come out and vote. But most of these soft support voters will go Democrat in the general election anyway.

Primaries and caucuses are not about the popular vote, they are about the best candidate. That includes things like strategy and organizing that Clinton has failed at. She's a strong candidate, but Obama outdid her this time.

If you kill caucuses, you kill the chance that red states will ever turn blue. Caucuses do more to build state parties in red states than primaries do because they get people involved and build networks of activists. Caucuses are important, especially in small states.

[emj2740]

Twist it this way, twist it that way, you just are not going to come up with a valid reson Hillary is going to win the nomination. The only reason she is in the primaries still is she is planning her run in 4 years and needs to ensure Obama loses hence her below the belt, gutter politics campaign. She needs Obama to lose this time so next time she can say she should have been picked in 08. It will always amaze me how she can call herself a Democrat while running a crash and burn sorched earth campaign against a fellow Democrat. What kind of Democrat say she and MCain are ready to be POTUS but Obama is not? Why does she jump on the 'bitter' wagon while MCain stayed away? Why is it since she can't compete in pulling in independents and Republicans she has to destroy the person who has proved he can? Hillary Clinton needs to be tried for Democratic Party Treason.

[cheforacle]

Change the rules in the middle; that's fair. And I'm not even sure your tally would hold up. Its sad to see people jettison ideas of fair play because they are sore losers.

[Oldchef]

The "popular vote" argument is specious. Those states that choose to do their primaries by a caucus necessarily have fewer people turn out to elect their delegates. The real test is the delegates. If fewer people turn out to elect the delegates in caucus states, that has no place in the argument. The point that's driving you Hilarybots crazy is that even with the fact that fewer "popular" votes elect the delegates from caucus states, Obama's still ahead in the "popular" vote. If those states had held primaries instead of caucuses, he would be even further ahead in the "popular" vote. So your point is disingenuous. Go back to your logic classes, if you took any; beginning with a false premise gives you false conclusions.

[dartagnan]

The screwed-up Texas system is unique -- why do you choose that as an example? What about all the other states Obama won?

[Boadicea]

Those Democratic superdelegates could do something about Hillary's behavior - they could speak out, they could renounce and reject her tactics. But they don't.

If Obama was a white southern male who posessed all the gifts he does, you can bet your booties they'd be speaking out like their lives depended upon it.

[longislandlol]

Students are smart-- they are at the top of their game-- they refused to be dumbed down..

[rationalthought1]

Clinton and her campaign are repugnant. She's playing to the worst in our character. If we democrats can't see through the same b.s. that's been used against us by Rove and his slime merchants, we're to gullible to bring this country back from the destructiveness of Bush. Clinton is so transparently phony that it certainly doesn't take being an elitist to recognize it.

[whatchamean]

The Clintons have taken a "if not us, then no democrat" stance. Their arrogance and willingness to lie is becoming legendary. David Geffen summed it up when he basically said that he was uncomfortable with the Clintons ease with which they can separate themselves from the truth.
I now understand why Bill made the Republicans so crazy to go after him. In their bubble, I guess
reality is what they say it is. That bubble has burst.

[scire]

What I think is really insulting is how pundits/th­emedia/rep­ublicans/h­illary call Obama supporters latte liberals, implying they're all wealthy and elitist and harvard grads. But what about his support from young people? How many of them have money? And what about his overwhelming support among African-Americans? How many of them fit this stereotype either?

Hillary did exactly what Obama was talking about when he was trying to explain why Bush got votes of this "bitter" group. She pandered to them ina a very obvious "Bush" way by touting guns and chugging back a beer and shot of whiskey. How insulting. She's assuming stupidity by catering to the stereotype that Barack was saying Bush catered to.

[AnninCA]

I would be quite surprised if she talked about latte drinkers. She mentioned that he was a fundraiser for major doners, which he was.

[adl]

She didn't, but a supporter who introduced her did

[in4success]

that's what we've come to expect from you AnninCA . . . missing the forest for the lattrees.

[centreman]

"major doners" and 1 freelancing mole who understood the faltering Clinton campaign's overarching "need."

[loocifer]

Where's this story?

Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama was again drawn into Tony Rezko's corruption trial on Monday, when the prosecution's star witness placed Obama at a party for an Iraqi-born billionaire who was later barred entry to the United States.

Stuart Levine testified under cross-examination that Obama and his wife, Michelle, attended the April 3, 2004, reception for Nadhmi Auchi.

The government's star witness testified Monday that Sen. Barack Obama (left) attended a party four years ago at the home of Antoin ''Tony'' Rezko that was held to honor Iraqi-born Nadhmi Auchi

[loria]

Just wait until the Peter Paul trial gets going later this month. There is nothing to Rezko. We'll see if there is anything to Peter Paul.

[loocifer]

You're right. They are both crooks. Let's vote for Nader okay?

[NorVaGal]

Yeah, and Bill Clinton attended an affair with Rev. Wright. He even shook Wright's hand and pleaded for absolution. GWB, Cheney, members of their administration, and many congressmen and senators partied hearty with Jack Abramoff. So, your point is....... Oh! Let me guess-- guilt by association. That's fine, so long as the same standard is applied to Bill and Hill and Peter Paul. Let's discuss it this fall.

[BubbaC33]

Obama was able to purchase a home and property from Rezko at below market value prices. Mentioning anything else does not change that fact.

[lucille70]

So what if he was there.. He never said he didn't know the guy and has admitted to getting campaign money from him.. Which he donated to charity.. This is not news.

[MrWinky]

GASP! Obama attended (gulp) a party!?! This is beyond pathetic. Nobody is saying he didn't know the guy, and at one time he was a prominent player in Chicago politics. The main point is that Obama (and many others) didn't know about his illegal dealings. Just like Hillary didn't know about Norman Hsu or Peter Paul, which has gotten next to no press, and shouldn't.

[dartagnan]

How many people were at that party? A dozen? A hundred? A thousand? Politicians go to a lot of parties. I'm sure Hillary has been at plenty of parties where unsavory characters also were in attendance. And for John McBomb the number of unsavory characters probably is in the hundreds.

[grrrfren]

As an Obama supporter, I've actually grown rather philosophical about the prospect of Hillary winning the primary, Look, if she succeeds in stealing the nomination from Obama, she will never get Obama supporters to vote for her in the general election and she will lose. And then, we can all breath a sigh of relief because we won't have to listen to her mendacious patronizing blather anymore.

And for those of you who think that by losing in 2008, Hillary will be perfectly positioned to run in 2012, well, I can't stop laughing long enough to explain what I really think of that preposterous scenario except to say, dream on.

[loria]

grrrfren,
I have always voted dem for president (going back to Carter). If Hillary is the nominee I don't know how I will bring myself to vote for her. I know that I need to support the dem against McCain. I don't want another war. I want the war in Iraq to end. Still, the thought of voting for Hillary literally makes me ill after all I have seen during this campaign. For those Hillary supporters who think Obama has done the same, you haven't been watching. He responds to her attacks, but he doesn't attack her.

I find it sad that the Clintons, who have been appreciated by so many dems through the years are losing the support of those who supported them through their difficult years.

[iswearington]

iswearington agrees wholeheartedly. it is very difficult to get black folk to vote. because bill and hillary are going out of their way to show their true colors..if it isn't obama..we will not vote in the general election. that means karl rove will be mccrazys vice president...or secretary of state for the next 4 years.then we will see if the values folk out in the nether can survive with just guns...false religion...and hatred and distrust for everyone that is accepting of the rest of humanity.small town segregationists have no one to blame but themselves for how the rest of humanity sees them.the horror movie industry would go bust if they didn't show cars breaking down in rural areas...(movies like deliveranc­e...etc)..­.i am sick of people bragging about small towns in the midwest and places like pennsylvania. those places are evil. no african american in his right mind wants his car to break down in places like that...with damn good reason.america is not a homogenous all white country. it is sick and evil and delusional to attend all white or all black churches.jesus will not have anything to do with that crap.

[POINT84]

I support Obama but I think thats the wrong approach.