Obama-McCain: The Early Results

Most Americans don't even start thinking about the election until after Labor Day. So, this is not a prediction. It's not even prediction adjacent. At best, it's a very reticent observation of the early landscape. And those can change.

But -- right now -- I get the sense that Barack Obama will clean the table with John McCain.

John McCain is a remarkable man, with a substantial life. But inexplicably he looks petulant, stiff, whiney and -- shocking to note during his "Green Banner" speech -- awkward. With a nervous laugh. But it goes far beyond those superficialities. His economic plan continues the one driving America into a recession, with an economic advisor (Phil Graham) who's a lobbyist for the banking industry at the heart of the housing crisis. More importantly, Sen. McCain himself admits knowing little about the economy -- an issue that may be the biggest this year, even over Iraq. And as for Iraq, he's largely supportive of the president, who has a 28% approval rating. Indeed, he's voted with the 28% president a full 95% of the time.

John McCain can be charming when he quips one-on-one with Jon Stewart, but when he's out making speeches, he appears lost. Making gaffe-after-repetitive gaffe. (Incorrectly claiming al Qaeda is in Iran. That we should be in Iraq for 100 years. Singing "Bomb-bomb-bomb Iran.")

But perhaps the biggest gaffe of all for John McCain was planned. The decision to make a speech the same night that Barack Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee allowed everyone to compare the two right at the start, Day One. And even to conservative commentators on Fox News, McCain came across dismally on every level -- content, warmth, crowd size, enthusiasm and banner décor -- while Obama was seen as vibrant, youthful and graceful.

But it's far worse than image (critical though that is): because at that speech, John McCain ceded the playing field to Barack Obama.

McCain spent his speech -- not laying out his own forthright agenda -- but explaining why he's not what Barack Obama says he is, a branch of George Bush. (A task made difficult with his 95% voting record in agreement.) As a result, Sen. McCain painted himself two choices, and he's sunk with both. He can continue to support George Bush, or be "about change." With the first, he's tied to a 28% president. With the second, he loses the G.O.P. base and lets Obama create the ground rules -- making the campaign be about change, the heart of Obama's candidacy.

His campaign so-follows Obama that the new McCain slogan (after messing up the first one) is a direct copy of Obama's. "Change we can believe in." If this was corporate product advertising, he'd be sued for copyright infringement. "Leadership we can believe in." How can you suggest yourself as an agent of change, when you can't even come up with your own slogan? Worse, McCain is defining himself in Obama's own terms.

Add to all this that Republicans are going to get crushed in the House and Senate. That 14 million people voted Democratic on Super Tuesday, but only 10 million Republican. That Democrats have won all three special House elections in conservative Republican districts.

Barack Obama has big hurdles to overcome. But every politician has hurdles. John McCain certainly does. Yes, Obama has to deal with white, non-college-educated voters and the large, past-remnants of Rev. Wright. Yet McCain has to overcome the gulf of black, young and Hispanic voters (a recent poll gave the latter to Democrats by 67-29%), as well as the ghosts of both Rev. Hagee and Rev. Parsley, which play into the already-deep distrust by the Republican's own far-Right, evangelical base.

And then, when the two candidates finally hit the road together, there is going to be a visceral, profound difference. And beyond just this image gap (which, make no mistake, is critical), but John McCain has plenty of substantive questions to resolve, as well. Lobbyists on his campaign, votes against New Orleans recovery -- while saying otherwise, and changing his position to support George Bush's proposals to warrantlessly wiretap Americans.

Last week, a Gallup Poll of likely voters had Obama ahead of McCain by 5 points, up six from a month ago. Now, this is meaningless as a gauge of the election. But it speaks to something else -- McCain has had a free field without anyone much criticizing him. And yet, he dropped support. If John McCain can lose six points running against no one, while his opponents were busy battering themselves in a split party, it should raise major caution signs to Republicans about what happens when he's actually challenged.

A decade ago, John McCain was a maverick. Today, he seems grasping for a direction, for a message. "I have more experience" isn't enough. It wasn't enough for Al Gore against George Bush, or for the first George Bush against Bill Clinton. If his message is to ridicule Barack Obama for wanting to talk with leaders of our enemies -- 67% of Americans want the president to talk with such leaders.

No Democrat should rest easy. That would be foolish. All campaigns are bitterly hard fights. This will be, too.

But let's put it this way, to any Republican furious at this blathering: if right now you had to bet your entire life savings on which candidate would win -- on whom would you put every last cent you had?

John McCain has had over two months to himself, to set the table and position everything for the campaign. And, with an open field, he's lost six points and handed the ball and the agenda to Barack Obama.

It's still so early, and so much can change. But I'd rather have the ball and be playing on my home turf and be ahead by a touchdown than the other way. Especially when your opponent is playing with a weight tied to their leg, dragging an entire party down.

Comments

[krocklin]

Although I don't agree that McCain is a "remarkable man" or "charming" - I'm still waiting to hear Obama answering his charges forcefully.
For example, yesterday McCain cracked out that old Republican canard that Obama and the Democrats will raise taxes......on the poor, the middle class, the elderly etc.
Obama has to take this head on.
"Tax and spend Democrats" after we have endured the Bush years is a logical absurdity.
All Obama has to do is repeat over and over how this argumet flies in the face of the facts and McCain won't have any credibility left..
After the Democrats under 8 years of Clinton left us with a budget surplus and Bush after him has squandered all of it and and built up such a huge deficit in its place, that shouldn't be difficult.
Nor should it be difficult to point out that under Bush our tax dollar has ballooned from 30% for the military to over 50% not counting the Iraq war!!!!!! And that this has only done harm to our military readiness and weakened our security.
.
What Obama has to emphasize - and he can't be timid about it - is that McCain and the Republicans and their allies the lobbyists (who have tripled in number under Bush) are really afraid that taxes on THE ULTRA WEALTHY will be rolled back and that the war profiteers and oil companies will be taxed on their obscene profits.

[anelder]

"Petulant, stiff, whiney and -- -- awkward. With a nervous laugh."
Reminds me of our current man at the top. And you didn"t mention that temper of his that he hasn"t managed to get rid of - not control - at his age. Being a peer of his I can also say with assurance that although wisdom may be greater responses and action is limited.

As to our current leader"s ratings - just who are those (28%"s) who hold on fast to the sinking ship. It"s too easy and flippant to call them stupid, ignorant, etc. There has to be a way to describe them that would help us understand and maybe more easily educate them..

Is it feasible that the G.O.P. knows this is not their year and McCain is being given his time in the limelight for being a good old boy. I mean just checking the field of contenders was a comedy in itself. It seemed a free for all where the real powers were saying "y"all jump in, we don"t have a chance as it is".

[UnknownSoldier]

The Repubicans choose the wrong person in 2000, and now they are paying for their blunder. Bush has done what no Democrat has been able to do: Destroy the Republican ideology.

[Evelyn]

Picture a debate between Obama and Romney. Two tall, handsome guys with lovely families and different opinions. Hmm, hard to pick.. Now picture a debate between Obama and McCain (helpfully, McCain arranged just a compare/contrast exercise for us last week.) One tall handsome guy with a lovely family and one old, crabby guy with a trophy wife. They're making this too easy!

[gladys46]

It's been said before ... republicians appear to be holding their noses too! It's very hard to believe that this is the repub offering! Perhaps Bush, Inc. has done such major destruction of the country and the party label until Mc they don't mind being the clown in the ring ... they others who fell by the way side ought to be glad they did, actually, I don't think anything, named anybody running under that brand wouldn't lose by a landslide!

Obama is just an excellent dem candidate in these very troubling times .... me thinks its just his season ... and the country needs him, his views fit if we're too retake our place of moral respect and financial solvency globally! Not to speak of ending this rediculous war in Iraq!

[gladys46]

P.S. Mc is too old ... that's already evidentuary by his feeble performances, verbally as well as physical appearance! A whole lot of people recognize it ... they just won't say it!Respect is given ... sympathy america just can't afford again ... not this time!

[ThomasBJones2]

Amen, I can understand why we respect our elders, their contributions to the world are what created it, but that doesn't mean we need to let them hold us over a barrel. McCain literally is to old, one of the exciting things about Obama, to me, is that he understands the wired, and wireless, world we're moving toward better than any other politician I have seen in the news.

[goatboyslim]

Q) What do you call someone who graduates bottom of his class from the Naval Academy ?

A ) The Republican candidate for President.

[Faith101]

I heard on CNN today that some people will stil vote for McCain while holding their nose. I agree with one of the other posts. We have got to fight for every vote as if we are 20 points down everywhere, Leaving no stone unturned. Work our hearts out until Nov 4, pitch in with all neighboring states. We can do this.

We will be worse off with McCain as president. He is already set for life. There is about 99% of us americans in dire straits. We have got to help elect Obama as president.

[BillZBubb]

If Obama can lose all of the big states except one to a Democratic rival in the primaries, just imagine what will happen to him when the Republicans and corporate media start going after him.

This is going to be a close race, but right now, McCain has a slight advantage.

[dulcis]

If Obama can come from 20 points down last November, and whip the entrenched favorite, who also had the highest name recognition in the party, and out-fundraising her by tens of millions of dollars as well, just imagine what will happen when the Republicans start to wonder why their candidate can't decide whether to tell people he really is a Republican, or whether he really is a maverick. This will be a tough race, but McCain is wheezing already.

[suzukimom]

Over at RCP they show Obama winning in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Are those two of the big states that you are referring to? He is also leading in Colorado and apparently may be able to win Arizona, McCain's home state. While I agree with Faith101 that we need to fight for every vote, I think we can be buoyed by the knowledge that Obama is starting from a very good place.

[timm0]

Stop it, Z. mccain has no advantage at all. He won't raise as much money, he has no down-ticket push or pull, and he's got no plans, no ideas, is a blithering horror show on the stump, and has a clear record of supporting all the wrong decisions of the last 8 years. How in the world do you spin that into a "slight advantage?"

Get over your bitterness about HRC losing. You made dire predictions back at the beginning of the primary. So far, none are coming true.

And too many people think the corporate media only target Dems. They are truly the favored target, but if there is an 8-armed baby born somewhere, THAT will be the top story for a week. They deal in hair-splitting and the outrageous. The 527s are the main issue for Obama to be concerned about, but they can be overcome by actually addressing the illicit charges - which is something Gore and Kerry foolishly didn't want to do.

[XME]

I hope...and pray...you're right!

[lboucher]

Will the last one to leave the DNC please turn out the lights?

[peterg76]

Let's not forget rigged elections, the Supreme Court, fake terror alerts, openly biased media, lying, etc. The neo-cons are not going to concede power gracefully.

[dulcis]

yes, they will go out kicking and screaming, and that will just be a small part of the fun. Imagine being a lobbyist right now, as it slowly dawns on them that the candidate that is out-fundraising all others, and who has the best shot at getting into the WH, isn't interested in their money. T

[jazzman]

My observation is that Obama will be the hardest campaigner the Democrats have seen in the last 12 years. He's more energized, more tenacious, and more determined now then when he was running against Hillary. At least with Hillary he knew that if he lost she would carry forth with policies similar to his but with McCain he knows that a loss there would spell doom for many Americans grasping for some kind new direction to pull them out of the quagmires we have gotten ourselves in Iraq, the economy, energy, the deficit, and the environment. Believe me. Obama is going to fight.

[Cookie100]

And he is going to win

[marignymitch]

I like this sunny posting, but I can think of one important caveat: The Republicans own Diebold. Or is it the other way around?

[PioneerKing]

McCain has never been a maverick. The pundits in the main stream media who love McCain's POW story labeled McCain as a maverick and the myth has stuck.
McCain has an established voting record from the 1980's onward that accurately reflect McCain's positions and they are not in any outside of the mainstream republican party lines.
In addition McCain/Feingold has been so poorly implemented and was so mangled that it really amounts to nothing. Other than that bit of legislation McCain has rarely breached party lines.

[NotMcCain]

Good blog. I hope you're right.

As for being a maverick 10 years ago....well, thinking back, was it really so hard to be a maverick when Bill Clinton was president?

The time to vigorously demonstrate his independence and PRINCIPLES would have been the past 7 years, with ths horrible president from his own party.

Instead, as you note, he has a 95% voting record in support of Bush. He is NOT a maverick. Obama is absolutelly right that he will be a continuation of Bush.

So he's got a lock on the 28% that still adore the president. But who are the other 20% that support McCain now--and, most of all, WHY?

McCain '08: "Promises You Can't Believe In"