After more than a year of stalled negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, it is clear that for the foreseeable future there will be no deal resolving their differences and establishing a Palestinian state. It is fruitless to blame one side or the other. In my article in the Huffington Post titled "The Very Hard Decisions Required For Peacemaking Between Israel and the Palestinians," I pointed out why the leaders of both sides face obstacles to deal making that make it very difficult for each of them even if they so desired. Simply put, for the Palestinians, it is giving up the right of millions of Diaspora Palestinians to return to their former homes in Israel. For Israel, it is the ability to remove thousands of settlers from their homes in areas that would be included in the Palestinian state in a two state solution. But it goes beyond the fact that these obstacles operate to frustrate the desires of the parties. In truth, neither leader seems to desire a deal enough to make any meaningful compromise. The government of Israel, led by Mr. Netanyahu and his coalition, has shown no willingness to compromise in order to make a deal and continues to expand settlements despite international pressure to stop. And the Fatah government of Mr. Abbas, by embracing Hamas, has given Israel a legitimate reason to argue that it can't countenance any deal with an entity committed to its destruction.
It seems appropriate, then, to speculate on what the future holds for the parties under these circumstances of a stalemate. Here are some of the scenarios that one can project.
Scenario 1. This is the scenario that the Netanyahu government seems to believe will prevail. Israel will continue to expand settlements in existing settlement areas under the rubric of expansion to meet family requirements. Settlement expansion will continue in Jerusalem, which the Israelis argue is to be retained by them as their capital in any negotiated deal. And settlers will continue illegal settlement activity, making small inroads into new areas, with no effective government response. The United States and some European nations may make some statements about the negative effect such activity has on the potential for a two state solution, but American elections and European involvement in financial issues will keep them from taking any meaningful action. Even after the U.S. elections if Obama wins, it is likely that his focus on the Middle East will diminish in favor of emphasis on Asia and other parts of the world where the payoff will be greater and a Republican President is hardly expected to pressure Israel. Ultimately, the Palestinian territory will consist of a series of "bantustans" which could be turned over to Palestinian governance in some form that falls short of a real state that can ever threaten Israel.
In this scenario it is difficult to predict what course of action will be followed by other states in the region. Iran's efforts at nuclear capability will continue to be seen as an existential threat to Israel and Israel's response remains totally unpredictable. Egypt and Jordan, which have formal peace treaties with Israel, are under considerable pressures from their populations for internal changes and pressure may also build up to change their relationship with Israel. Countering that pressure is their dire need for the continuation of American financial support, which they would lose if they terminated their peace treaties. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states will make their usual statements condemning Israel's actions and calling for a deal with the Palestinians. But their focus will be on Iran and hoping that Israel will act as a buffer to Iran's expansionist ambitions.
Scenario 2. This is the scenario that the Palestinians seem to believe will happen. Fatah and Hamas will come to some resolution of their differences and present a unity government of what they will call "technocrats," that will eliminate pressure on Hamas to revoke its call for the elimination of Israel. They may have to increase their missile attacks on Israel and provoke Israel's more violent response in order to capture the world's attention, once again. But one way or the other, they will use Israel's relentless settlement activity to successfully press members of the Security Council and the United Nations to establish a Palestinian state, which will include at least half of Jerusalem. Since the state will be recognized by the UN, it will have as its borders the 1967 green lines, forcing Israel to move its settlers out of the Palestinian side of the green line or make a deal favorable to the Palestinians to trade other land for some of those settlement areas. The Palestinians will not have to formally renounce the "right of return" in the scenario of a UN delivered state.
Scenario 3. The Palestinians, with a new, younger leadership, inspired by some of today's Palestinian intellectuals, will decide to forgo what is left of a two state solution and press for a bi-national state made up of Jews and Palestinians. When Israel refuses to accept the Palestinians as citizens with equal rights, including the right to vote, they will start a campaign to brand Israel as an apartheid state, seeking world wide boycotts to pressure Israel into conforming to their demands. These demands, they know, based on the demographics of Israeli and Palestinian birthrates will eventually result on a Muslim majority in the land.
These are the most likely scenarios, but as we have learned from experience, the unexpected is usual fare in this very volatile region. The "Arab Spring" has brought with it new elements of uncertainty. For example, if the Assad government in Syria were to fall, it can have implications for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza that affect Israel in ways we can't foresee. The apparent power struggle in Iran between supporters of Prime Minister Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and the clerics led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei can also have consequences that affect the region. In short, as the song goes: "The future is hard to tell. Que serra, serra. What will be will be."
Mr. Lifton, a businessman and political activist is writing a book entitled "Life's Lessons and Stories from a Member of the "Greatest Generation.'"
1: Their own state roughly along Clinton Parameters with Security Barrier as the approximate border.
2. Federation with Palestinian Jordan.
3. Current status-- self-administration with Israeli oversight.
4. Two- state solution: Gazastan and Palestine on W. Bank.
They'd better choose. And soon. The available land is getting smaller every year.
1) Refuse to accept Israel's right to be, to exist as the nation-state of the Jewish people
2) Refuse to accept a peace treaty as the end of conflict and the end of all future demands
Sadly, to date, they have refused, categorically, both simple and rational demands of Israel and much of the rest of the world.
Thus, instead of peace, the application of international law, as is, should take place, thus allowing for an accommodation of peaceful coexistence between Arab and Jew, between the Muslim-Arab world and the nation-state of the Jewish people, Israel.
P.S. Relevant international law components:
1) San Remo Conference decisions, 1920
2) League of Nations decisions, 1922
3) United Nations Charter, Article 80, 1945
4) UN Security Council Resolution, 242, 1967
This injustice can never be resolved through forced / military actions.
Only Justice for ALL will ever resolve injustice and oppression.
All the international "agreements" and international "laws" giving and supporting the Israelis in their ongoing oppression only deepens the hatred and resolve of their victims to fight on for their rights, their homes, and for Justice.
No nation on earth is powerful enough to sustain an oppression of millions of people.
Only Justice for ALL will ever resolve this much hatred and this many decades of abuse.
Not more bullets.
Of that you may bet the farm.
At the end of the article, you might have noticed: "based on the demographics of Israeli and Palestinian birthrates will eventually result on a Muslim majority in the land."
So, in reality, the Israelis would be much wiser to choose to resolve the conflict through the use and application of Justice for ALL, instead of bullets, and soon. :-)
Reality: the territory offered to Palestinian Arabs in 1948 has shrank to about 20% of its initial offer.
The trend will continue as long as Arab intransigence and entitlement mythology keep on begin promoted in Arab societies.
Knowing that, the Israelis sure would be wise to exercise justice for ALL, instead of continuing the "right is might" policy.
They can not continue to oppress people without recriminations; sooner or later.
There is always scenario lV ...Israel declares their own boundaries and with only one caveat allow the Palestinians to declare their own country - Palestine must be demilitarized.
Israel will trade the 4% of the land they have taken to build settlements and will allow a road connecting Palestine and Gaza, but they will consider rocket attacks to be acts of war between sovereign nations.
Israel wants peace and NOW is the time, the Arab League is too busy within their own borders to prevent the Palestinian leadership from making a deal.
And considering the numerous massacres and the other atrocities which the Palestinians have sufferred through, how could anyone ask them to lay down their weapons and not their OPPRESSOR?
Cui bono?
Israel can NOT "win" in the long term and quite frankly the Jews were stupid to even try to have their own country, because by the time they started, it was already obvious that colonization was a failed endeavor.
In the end the colonizers either get driven out (most cases) or must intermingle with the locals and lose power, sometime becoming a near powerless minority. That is just how humans interact.
The vast disparity in populations and weapons systems that the white Americans enjoyed, no longer exist. Now everyone has access to equally devastating weapons and the population situation is the exact opposite of the situation in the Americas.
For everyone that thinks Israel will be able to oppress the natives forever, I ask the simple question , HOW?
Yes, in the short term (less than 25 years), Israel may be able to survive, but the situation will be low intensity war rather than peace.
BUT what happens long term?
- the Arab populations vastly our number both all the Jews in Israel and all the Jews on earth. How can the Jews ignore the Arab wishes?
- There are no "magic" weapons. All the weapons technology in the world is available to every one on earth.
As to the rest of your post, Jews have the most powerful weapon on the planet--brains. No amount of mad, foaming at the mouth, jihadis will ever be any match for that weapon.
Within 25 years, oil will no longer be an issue as we will have an alternate energy source by then which means that the arab world will no longer have any source of income and the various tribal conflicts among arabs will continue in between bouts of pounding sand. It's already starting to happen as the "arab spring" braces for a long, hard winter.
If the Israelis really had brains, instead of just the most bullets, they would know better than to oppress people to steal their land, and really think they will get away with that, forever.
If they really used cerebral instead of military power, they would turn to resolving the conflict through the application of Justice for ALL, instead of bullets. Gee, wouldn't that be a smart thing to do.
http://mondoweiss.net/2012/01/arendt-born-in-conflict-israel-will-degenerate-into-sparta-and-american-jews-will-need-to-back-away.html
too bad Fox, CNN, even MSNBC, will never let us
know about such sites.....maybe Charlie Rose with
some luck....
Since Fatah has joined Hamas, Israel is comfortable in saying it won't negotiate with an entity which seeks its destruction. Israel turns inwards to fix its internal problems such as an out of control Haradi sector and income inequality. Israel's economy continues to grow, the rest of the Arab world is focused instead on the chaos created by the fall of the house of Assad in Syria, and the food riots in Egypt and the street fighting between Hezbollah and everyone else in the streets of Beirut.
Nothing is solved because most Israelis are living a comfortable western like existence and the fence keeps the violent Arabs at bay. The Palestinian leadership is comfortable and like Arab governments anywhere, sees no need to take care of its people. No Palestinian state emerges, the 2% of the land in the West bank which are taken up by settlements remains the same, only a few obsessive anti-Israel types care. With violent revolution going on in the rest of the Arab world which causes waves of refugees to try to sail to Europe. Europe sends them back. No one cares.
Oh, Israel will maintain and state to the UN that any Palestinian country must be demilitarized and will continue air attacks on any military buildup in Palestine.
Problem is, they expect a do-over that Israel is under no obligation to give.
When will the pals realize that they are playing right into the hands of Israel's right wing, not to mention, the arab world's greedy dictators, be they secular or islamist...?
But this is the outfit that recently got 182 countries voting with it at the UN (was it seven against?), was able to join UNESCO, was able to persuade the German government to withhold submarine sales to Israel until Israel transferred the PA revenue, etc.
I don't see what you claim.
It's true that Israel is under no obligation -- but then, counties aren't motivated by obligation, they are motivated by interests. Since Hamas has recently begun to acquire much better missiles (from Libya), the Israelis are a lot more interested.
As for hamas's missile acquisition, perhaps you haven't heard...Cast Lead 2 is already in the works.
You'd fare better if you were in touch with reality, guilty, this fantasy about Israel won't get you or the pals anywhere.
Then, when the natural shift occurs, at least they would not become second class citizens.
The scenario envisioned by Sharon when he pulled out of Gaza, formed the Kadima party and ran for elections on this idea: The scenario known as "disengagement":
-Israel sets a border in Judea and Samaria, fulfilling UN res 242, forcing a state on the Palestinians as in Gaza 2005.
Closing the border to Gaza and the PA states.
-With 2 Palestinian states (Gaza and WB) there's no more pressure on Israel.
-The PA state (with border passages to Jordan) becomes a failed state just like Gaza.
-Palestinians in PA flee to Jordan, and the regime collapses (as Arafat wanted in 1970).
-Gaza becomes Egypt, PA becomes Jordan, and the term "Palestinians" disappears as fast as it was invented.
We can't fix Arab society, but we can defeat our enemies if we stop trade with them.
If the PA and Gaza are forced to stop using the Shekel, they collapse.
Gaza without the Shekel instantly becomes Egyptian.
Yet, "Palestine" is merely the name of a territory, not a nationality or a state. Indeed, 77% of it was renamed by the Arabs. After that part was handed over to them in 1921, they renamed their part of "Palestine" Jordan.
The other part, 23%, has been renamed Israel by the Jews to whom that part of "Palestine" was assigned as "the national home for the Jewish people" by various international bodies, including the UN.
Thus, is the poster referring to the "Palestine" of the mind...??
Of course you wouldn't, so why would anyone expect the Arabs to accept that "deal"?
When taking the issue to the UN, I suggest to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)'s head, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas, he should also tell the representatives there to check the UN Charter, and specifically to check Article 80 of it.
Article 80 of the UN Charter - perhaps you are not aware either - ratifies and enshrines in law the decisions made by the League of Nations back in 1922. Those decisions clearly assign the entire remaining 23% land of "Palestine", from the river to the sea, to be "the national home for the Jewish people" in which Jews may SETTLE anywhere and whenever they wish. Incidentally, the other part of "Palestine", the whole 77% of it, had been handed over already to the Arabs who subsequently changed it from "Palestine" to Jordan, knowing full well the name "Palestine" was an artificial one.
Now, that the Jewish people has renamed their part of "Palestine" to Israel and act legally, as has been stated in the San Remo Conference, 1920; the League of Nations decisions, 1922; and the UN Charter, Article 80, 1945; you should explain to the delegates why you can't live by international law; including the UN Charter.
Obviously, these "laws" have done the exact opposite and are therefore open to modification.
Have you ever heard of the term: "Constitutional Amendment"?
Laws are living / evolving instruments, not enshrined in stone.
EXCEPT, the basic laws, as in: "Thou shall not steal". Which is what the REFUGEES have been complaining about for decades.
The only basis in law that wold permit the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to set up a state in western "Palestine" - the land between the Jordan river and the sea - is UN Security Council Resolution, 242, of 1967 to which the PLO committed itself.
242, it should be noted, while designed to bring about an accommodation of peaceful coexistence between the nation-state of the Jewish people, Israel, and its Arab neighbors, does not call for the setting up of an additional state in western "Palestine" or anywhere else. Indeed, 242 doesn't even make use of concepts such as "Palestinians".
242 however does expects the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to retreat from "territories" captured during the Six-Day War, 1967, which Israel of course has done when it vacated the Sinai peninsula. And, 242 does expect the IDF to situate itself beyond "secure and recognized boundaries" and not behind any particular ones, and certainly not behind the 1949 armistice lines which no longer exist.
Thus, if international law is good for the goose, it should also be good for the gander, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in this case, wouldn't the poster say...??
http://israelipalestinian.procon.org/view.answers.php?questionID=755
http://www.nad-plo.org/print.php?id=67
Israel violated OA much sooner and worse....go try
that on yahoo.....that crowd is much less educated
about the ME ME$$, some might fall for it there....