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Robert Kuttner

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Which Way for Europe?

Posted: 05/20/2012 8:14 pm

PARIS -- The good news: Austerity is finally on the defensive. At the Camp David G-8 summit, all the other national leaders pressed German Chancellor Angela Merkel to relent and to allow Europe's ravaged economy to grow.

The bad news: The shift is mainly at the level of rhetoric and token policy changes. Nobody in the political mainstream is seriously proposing the kind of radical reform that would allow growth to occur.

Two weeks of interviews with progressive leaders in Europe -- academics, the left wing of labor and social democratic parties, NGO groups -- suggest a remarkable consensus on what needs to be done. You can see it in any of several manifestos from groups like Social Europe, the European Trade Union Confederation, Re-Define, Foundation for European Progressive Studies, Finance Watch, the British group Compass, among several others.

The elements:

Drastic debt relief for Greece, so that the Greek economy can begin to grow again, coupled with real tax reform in Greece so that wealthy Greeks begin paying taxes owed. This means cancelling a lot of the Greek debt. Yes, the previous Greek government cooked its books, but do you think the government of East Germany didn't? Yet that didn't prevent the West German government from pumping about a trillion dollars into the former communist state. Oh, but these people were Germans, not Greeks.

A makeover of the European Central Bank
, so that it can lend directly to European countries, rather than using a subterfuge of low interest rate loans to Europe's commercial banks, which in turn buy government bonds. The problem with the present policy is that it is a house of cards that puts banks more deeply in debt.

Radical constraints on financial speculation, so that hedge funds and banks stop speculating against the bonds of weak countries and start financing the real economy. A combination of regulation and a financial transaction tax could achieve this.

Mutualization of sovereign debt through Euro bonds, so that weak countries are not made to pay exorbitant interest rates to finance crushing debt. This would also take a lot of the profit out of speculation. The behavior of money markets in the European depression is pro-cyclical -- it piles on vulnerable countries and deepens the slump. Government policy needs to be counter-cyclical.

Massive public investment financed at the European level, to improve green infrastructure and create jobs. This is a "supply-side" as well as a "demand-side" program. It improves productivity even as it boosts purchasing power

Suspension of the deficit reduction clause in the Stability and Growth Pact that requires EU member countries to move towards deficit reduction in a deep recession. The pact, in fact, has just such an escape provision, allowing countries to exceed the debt and deficit limits of Europe's Maastricht Treaty, which created the European Union, when they face an economic emergency. But Chancellor Merkel and the European Central Bank have been behaving as if that clause didn't exist, putting pressure on Greece, France, Italy and Spain to cut deficits in a deep slump.

The rhetoric has changed, but how many of these radical policy changes are seriously on the table?

Perhaps two.

European leaders are now talking seriously about cobbling together an investment program of as much as 200 billion euros, using mainly unused regional development funds. The funds haven't been used because peripheral countries such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland are under such pressure from the same EU to cut spending that they can't come up with the necessary national matching funds. These investment funds though not large enough to pull Europe out of its incipient depression; but if targeted at small countries, they could make a constructive difference.

There is also serious talk, belatedly, about suspending the austerity provisions in the EU's 1997 Stablity and Growth Pact, as embellished by the austerity compact agreed to by 25 European governments last December.

But because of the general conservatism of most European leaders, there is no agreement on the more radical and necessary measures.

There is little support for Euro-bonds, little support for converting the ECB to a true central bank, and not quite enough support for a financial transactions tax.

A financial transactions tax could do double duty. It could take a lot of the profit out of speculation against sovereign bonds -- and also raise revenue needed for public investment. But though most European national governments now favor such a tax, it would be difficult to implement without cooperation of the two biggest money centers, namely Britain and the U.S., whose governments remain opposed.

So while Greece is right on the razor's edge of default, and may yet be granted some overdue relief, the prospects for broader European recovery are still very bleak until the politics get a lot more radical.

Robert Kuttner is co-editor of The American Prospect and a senior fellow at Demos. His latest book is A Presidency in Peril.

 
 
 
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PARIS -- The good news: Austerity is finally on the defensive. At the Camp David G-8 summit, all the other national leaders pressed German Chancellor Angela Merkel to relent and to allow Europe's rava...
PARIS -- The good news: Austerity is finally on the defensive. At the Camp David G-8 summit, all the other national leaders pressed German Chancellor Angela Merkel to relent and to allow Europe's rava...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Christine Shackleton
12:33 PM on 05/22/2012
Is the Euro a kind of Piedmont in the idea of Mussolini vs the Piedmont onto Mussolini. Might this worry Greece. Mussolini saw laziness in the Piedmont or non success hence ripping off his shirt and working in the fields. . but yet still a part as Gramsci outlines
"State Domination Replaces, Yet Represents, the Leading Group's Hegemony in Passive Revolutions: Gramsci: "The important thing is to analyse more profoundly the significance of a 'Piedmont'-type function in passive revolutions -- i.e. the fact that a State replaces the local social groups in leading a struggle of renewal. It is one of the cases in which these groups have the function of 'domination' without that of 'leadership': dictatorship without hegemony. The hegemony will be exericesed by a part of the social group over the entire group, and not by the latter over other forces..."
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Christine Shackleton
11:00 AM on 05/22/2012
Alabama Governor Bentley has gone to a vote on the constitution (al.com) to take funds or not from a Gas-oil resources fund anad apply to medicaid and prisons --

Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim James said the money in the trust fund should be used for its intended purpose — to help future generations.

"There's not much difference between the Alabama politicians and your Greek politicians," James said, referring to the European country's debt crisis. "Same politicians, just different continent. Instead of looking adversity in the eye, just robbing future generations."

versus
State Health Officer Donald Williams said failure of the constitutional amendment would wipe out about 10 percent of the revenue for state agencies. "I simply don't think it's going to be possible to build a Medicaid budget with a 10 percent reduction ----
"I think you are then beginning to see the dangers we're talking about, which is doctors leaving, hospitals closing, patients on Medicaid in nursing homes no longer being able to be maintained in the nursing homes," he said. "And then it's not just a problem with Medicaid, it's become a problem with the whole health care system."

Th west as China buys USA debt directly from Treasury instead of through Wall St
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Christine Shackleton
10:43 AM on 05/22/2012
The environment
Today, the government is poised to implement an integration action plan aimed at ... in the period 1955-1973 Germany absorbed 603300 Greek migrants, Australia 170700, ...

The Greek people are one of the hardest working on earth
03:51 PM on 05/22/2012
So according to your logic emigrating from a place without work to a place with work defines one as belonging to "those working hardest" instead of to "those looking for a job"?
10:15 AM on 05/22/2012
"Yes, the previous Greek government cooked its books, but do you think the government of East Germany didn't? Yet that didn't prevent the West German government from pumping about a trillion dollars into the former communist state. Oh, but these people were Germans, not Greeks."

Errr, yeah, right. They were unifying a country. There were a lot of problems in the unification based on some corrupt business practices, but the Germans sucked it up and paid (and are still paying) a unification tax. You see the difference? The Germans are paying to unite THEIR country. The Greeks were suppose to come to the table ready to join the game fairly. They lied. Germans put their house in order---unified a country and propped up the Euro. What more do you want? The Greeks need to put the house in order in order to get help. Simple.
08:54 AM on 05/22/2012
Greece and the rest of Europe is deeply ensconced in spending more, lots more, than they bring in. And why should the Germans have to pay for the irresponsibility of the Greek politicians and people? Once things begin to really go south in Italy, Spain, and Portugal, who can be expected to swoop in and cover their foolishness too? The Germans are rich, but not that rich

This day of reckoning has been steadily heading their way for 50 years - and the crap is finally getting ready to hit the fan. Kuttner's right about this: European austerity and significant economic growth are two opposing forces. But given the hole the Europeans have put themselves in, they've run out of wiggle room - there's nowhere that will begin solve the two headed problem of deficit and economic growth left to turn.

They can, if they choose to, borrow more today to temporarily stave off disaster but when the disaster comes, as it surely will, the economic and human costs will be absolutely titanic.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Christine Shackleton
09:07 AM on 05/22/2012
watch the video and it shows germany has done well financially out of Greece-- full stop-- this is the point --the concept of what the euro is-- the discussion group in part feel that -- and this in part backs what you say-- that Germany is dictating -- meaning a different concept is wanted-- but money talks-- at what cost in the interim---
Chinas money is involved here but who is to say Greece will not do a deal with China -- but wiil they give up their perceived loss of freedom in this geo political place in the history of the Ottoman, WW2, their own torture of their own post WW2 , loss of royal family, their orthodoxy and their trump card like turkey --a christian wall on an upheaving islamic front
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Christine Shackleton
07:22 AM on 05/22/2012
Rock and Roll stars will run Greece says former German Finance Minister if Greece does not follow demands
Greek response repeatedley points to nationalism of Germany to rule and middle line of Greece says Greece with 350 billion deficit will not have money in one month
Return to 1920,s with people dead on street--
What about Germany post 1918 and 1945 say Greeks.

See this excellent argument of open forum on Australias (wait for video to be posted but see summation --live now
http://www.sbs.com.au/insight/episode/overview/477/Exit-Greece
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Christine Shackleton
09:57 AM on 05/22/2012
Amid state of affairs
Despite tough opposition from Germany, French president Francois Hollande is expected to revisit the idea of Eurobonds at the EU Summit later this week. Hollande is pushing Eurobonds as a way to propel economic growth, but a German official has insisted that the proposal is “the wrong prescription at the wrong time”.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Christine Shackleton
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
davidprosser
01:54 AM on 05/22/2012
The answer to our global crisis is not growth. As scientists inform us, growth on a planet with limited space and resources is finite. It can only ever then be a short term solution. A lack of growth is also not the cause of the crisis. The cause of the crisis is that our world has become interconnected and interdependent, yet we act in a way which does not support this.

This is the only way for our global crisis to exist but fortunately it also gives us our key indicator for how we can exit it: By reforming our relationships. Because our global economy is interconnected and interdependent it means that mutually responsible relationships are needed for equilibrium to be achieved.

But because fundamental changes don’t usually come from governments, or from economists or corporations, we need to look to ourselves. We need to become an educated global populace. We need to listen to the scientists, to study how we are today globally connected and interdependent.

Only then will we have the proper mindset to begin fixing the global economy by the global populace becoming educated about the true state of our world. Growth is not the answer. In fact, eventually growth must end and we must become a globally sustainable species. The crisis is rooted in how we relate to one another. This is where our efforts should be focused chiefly.
12:24 AM on 05/22/2012
You danced to the music, now the piper will be paid. How you get the money is not his problem-it*s yours . he WILL get payed-one way or another, a fact of life that can be watched onTV -want proof ,watch all of the REPO shows you will pay in the end .Bill collection is a growing industry.
08:05 PM on 05/21/2012
What we learn from Europe is that Obama's massively irresponsible borrowing can destroy us.
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ABandApart
Henceforth referring to the GOP as "the Bluths"
08:34 PM on 05/21/2012
It's a shame you didn't read the article.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Casperboy1957
08:51 PM on 05/21/2012
What we learn from Europe is that Obama's massively irresponsible borrowing can destroy us.

What we've learned is that you (Ultrabrite) are listening to really bad sources. But I suspect deep down you already knew that.
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Gupdiver
We are in a period of Ineptocracy!
06:18 PM on 05/21/2012
"real tax reform in Greece so that wealthy Greeks begin paying taxes owed.", typical thinking that only the wealthy evade or don't pay taxes. Have you ever been to Greece? It's wide spread, that's one reason they are in this mess. Even if you eliminate all of the Greek debt, they don't collect enough taxes to fund their government and their social programs. There have been plenty of studies that show a large underground economy in the PIIGS countries that evade taxes, it's not just the wealthy.
HansB
The only good certainty is a dead certainty
05:46 PM on 05/21/2012
When Germany lectures others about how well austerity and reform worked for itself, it forgets something crucial. It is that even as Germany reformed, other countries (or individuals in those countries, in the case of Spain) - thanks to the euro - were able to borrow and spend vast sums of money. So Germany did not suffer deflation or a dip in demand due to its policies: the other eurozone countries made up for any shortfall in demand. And Germany's trade surplus ballooned because of this to almost exactly the same extent that other countries' trade deficit grew.

Greece and the other troubled countries could only do something similar in similar circumstances: when massive spending abroad makes up for the consequences of local austerity to the national economy. But one of the problems is that Germany - despite the lessons of its own success - refuses pointblank to create such a situation. Without the compensating effects of external demand, austerity just leads to recession and deflation, increasing the debt/GDP ratio instead of reducing debt. This is why the reforms Greece was pushed to enact by the Merkozy duo have only made the situation worse. Much worse.

In short, austerity in the PIIGS only makes sense if there is a corresponding level of stimulus spending in Germany and other countries which can afford it. If everybody tightens the belt at the same time, which is what the Germans are insisting on, the result is recession - or worse. Even in Germany.
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Chango137
Emptiness is form, form is emptiness
06:21 PM on 05/21/2012
F&F. Very thoughtful post, many people posting would rather latch on to ridiculous political talking points about budgets, while ignoring the complexities of international finance and capital flows. Paul Krugman recently summarized it in a very understandable way: because of the past capital flows which you describe, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece are about 30% overvalued, and a combination of growth and moderate inflation, particularly on the German side, would even the situation. Austerity a la Merkel is like taking a gun and shooting yourself in the head. Sometimes I believe that it would be a lot cheaper for us the rich countries to just buy Greece and avert the loss trillions of dollars that a great depression would cost.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard Bartholomew
My micro-bio isn't empty.
07:01 PM on 05/21/2012
'It is that even as Germany reformed, other countries (or individuals in those countries, in the case of Spain) - thanks to the euro - were able to borrow and spend vast sums of money.'

That's right 'were able to' and not 'were compelled to'. Who's fault is it that they borrowed?
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Chango137
Emptiness is form, form is emptiness
09:42 AM on 05/22/2012
"That's right 'were able to' and not 'were compelled to'" Not quite. The creation of the Euro created massive capital flows into these countries, inflating their real state prices and everything else. For example, at the start of the crisis, Spain was running a budget surplus and her banks were quite well managed and capitalized. It is not as simple as some want to make it, in order to fit their talking points.
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Tsakonas
Architect
05:39 PM on 05/21/2012
No one is talking about the real problem. When I was last in Greece in 05 the locals explained that when they switched to the Euro, the cost of everything more than quadrupled over night, yet pay stayed the same. I have a client who was living in Dublin that experienced the same thing. The Euro killed consumer spending in these less fortunate countries. This is far more detrimental to the economy than entitlements or the rich not paying taxes. When you price the average person out of buying even the necessities, an economy can't survive. All the BS the media and politicians are feeding us is just secondary at best. Consumers, consumers, consumers. That's the key to a healthy economy!
10:00 PM on 05/21/2012
Oh please. The average Greek makes plenty of money. Way more than people in former Soviet/Warsaw pact countries, that are now in the EU and have currencies pegged to the euro.
05:05 PM on 05/21/2012
Europe will print dollars to save the EU. They will inflate away the value of the German savers in a useless effort to bail out the broken nations that have promised massive benefits on their meager economies.

In German Austerity will hit the old, the retired, the savers, the middle class. Their purchasing power will be taken from them in the form of inflation. They will be told they are saving Europe. When all they are doing is being robbed to support failed socialist states. When you are 75 and the government inflates the value of your life savings away there is nothing you can do to get it back.

Europes problems is that they believe they haven't run out of other peoples money yet. Obama will secretly lend them more from the fed discount window and they will steal the value of the German savers.

Why would Obama support this? He can't have the EU fall apart before his re-election. To him it's all about winning 4 more years...nothing else matters.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mark Dobbins
I may be dumb but I'm not that dumb
04:43 PM on 05/21/2012
The Greek poll results tell it all. They don't want austerity, but they want to stay in the Euro.

Translation, I want to be as athletic as LeBron James, but I prefer to lay on the couch and eat chips all day.
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jmpurser
See My micro-bio
05:45 PM on 05/21/2012
Your "translation" tells me it's all still greek to you.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mark Dobbins
I may be dumb but I'm not that dumb
06:03 PM on 05/21/2012
Greece gets kicked out of the Euro; want to bet against that?
HansB
The only good certainty is a dead certainty
05:57 PM on 05/21/2012
The Greek poll results can be interpreted in many ways. My interpretation is that they want to stay in the euro, but the centrist parties which were mandated to achieve this without bankrupting the country in the process failed spectacularly and deserved punishment. The result is chaos, as would be the case anywhere when the moderates are discredited and all that's left is the fringe.

Give them a break! I don't know how the economic tale will end, but I do have some confidence that the political vacuum will be filled. Elections are still won in the center, as Obama and Hollande proved, and sooner or later Greece will have new moderates, untainted by the failed policies of the past, rising to power.
04:21 PM on 05/21/2012
Always the same song with this guy "massive public 'investment,'" totalitarian regulation that entails confiscation, and the myth that growth is the result of govt policy.
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jmpurser
See My micro-bio
05:49 PM on 05/21/2012
It may be "always the same" for him but you haven't learned any of it yet.
10:35 AM on 05/22/2012
Oh yes, learning equates with accepting doctrine.