I know I keep saying it, but I told you so. The Observer is reporting that, according to its sources, the EPA is likely to agree to cut its current estimate of oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico by BP's Macondo well that blew out on April 20. BP has officially disputed the government's estimate, saying that it could be half of the official estimate, citing multiple estimates and lack of actual measurement of the flow. The Observer is reporting that the EPA agrees that estimates are not 100% accurate, signalling the weakness of the government's position.
You'll recall that I repeatedly rang the alarm bell in the middle of July that BP was foot dragging the containment of the flow and the fabrication of facilities that could have captured (and measured) 100% of the flow rate. When the US government agreed that the well would be shut in for the "well integrity test" on July 13, the opportunity to actually measure the total flow was lost forever. BP knew that no government official would have the intestinal fortitude to ever risk releasing more oil into the environment, and won the Battle of the Flow Estimate when Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen agreed to the high risk operation of shutting in the well without proper contingency plans and inadequate containment facilities in place. Remember that EPA fines are determined by the amount of oil released into the environment, so it remains in BP's interest to minimize that amount. As feared, it appears that they are going to win this battle.
If BP gets away with reducing the flow estimate to half of the current estimate, it will be a masterful manipulation of government regulators and inexperienced administration officials. It appears that with the media now completely ignoring this tragedy, BP will successfully lowball the flow to minimize its liability. To give you an idea of the size of this issue, let's look at a few numbers:
First, the official government estimate for flow into the Gulf is 4.9 million barrels, or about 60,000 barrels per day (this estimate is likely way low due to flow characteristics of these big deepwater wells, but that fact just complicates an already complicated subject, so I'll ignore it for now). Second, at the peak of it's "top hat" containment, BP was capturing about 25,000 barrels of oil per day, even as oil roared into the water around the cap. Here's a little video to remind you of what it looked like at the time:
So. If BP is now claiming that the flow rate was half the estimated 60,000 barrels per day, that means that when they were capturing 25,000 barrels per day, they were capturing close to all of the flow. I don't know about you, but all that oil roaring into the water around the cap looks like a lot more than nothing. Additionally, recall that on July 6, Doug Suttles actually used 53,000 barrels per day as his estimate of flow for the calculation of the amount of dispersant BP wanted to apply at the sea floor. To now assert that the flow rate was half of the government estimate, and far below their own estimate is disingenuous on the face. It appears that when inexperienced administration officials faced BP's steely-eyed negotiators on this issue, they were buffaloed into shutting in the well without measuring the flow. Once again, said steely-eyed negotiators out-negotiated the government negotiators.
So the die is cast. Without media focus on this tragedy, there's nothing any of us can do about this miscarriage of justice. BP wins again.
Oh. BTW. BP turned a profit of $1.79 billion in the third quarter of 2010, at the height of the oil spill crisis. Bob Dudley, BP CEO, is expected to soon communicate to his shareholders that the $39 billion reserve established by the company in 2010 will be more than enough to cover the costs of the blowout and resulting spill clean up.
And the beat goes on.
Bob Cavnar, a 30-year veteran of the oil and gas industry, is the author of Disaster on the Horizon: High Stakes, High Risks, and the Story Behind the Deepwater Well Blowout. He is CEO of Luca Technologies.
Follow Robert L. Cavnar on Twitter: www.twitter.com/dailyhurricane
NYC after 9/11: "The air is safe to breathe and water is safe to drink"
How hard can that be ????
It's shocking and beyond belief !
I work as a regulator under the Safe Drinking Water Act. I am short staffed and we are all underpaid and inadequately trained. We have to beg for training and get turned down more ofter than not. We had an EPA trainer come out for one of our programs. He knew less than I did.
The drinking water standards are out of date and the regulators of the programs are underpaid and need training. This is what Obama should have funded with stimulus money instead of giving it to the banksters. This is part of building America's infrastructure.
If you want to know some of what I know, Google chloramine disinfection byproducts
What's in your water?
I'm wondering how soon the TeaBaggers and other failed information smurfs will begin to experience more of the same kind of failures that happened with Bush & Cheney at the helm? It will hit sooner or later and I'm wondering if those smurfs, TeaBaggers will be smart enough to complain this time around. They were stupidly quiet for eight years of Bush failures, but of course, Limbaugh & Fox never told them their conditions were unbearable and troublesome.
The nice thing about technology answers like the Nissan Leaf is that you're not really having to reinvent the wheel, infrastructure-wise. Wherever there's a 'live' 100v drop, you're in business. Problem is, that recharge can take something like 18 hours, I think. Half that on 220v. 30 minutes on 480v. But, what happens to your battery pack on 'fast' recharge etc.?
Another answer I like is biofuels. And, this is part of the game that the oil companies can get in on, and earn eco-groovy points while reinforcing their product line from a political standpoint, as well as moving closer to energy 'made in USA'.
For the short term, we're still basically stuck using petroleum derivatives to move ourselves around from point A to B. We might, however, live long enough to see all of that change, and the sooner people lean to the wheel, instead of crying over spilled oil, the sooner we'll be there.
Next week: How cargo ships could power themselves across the ocean off of seawater.
You do understand that the Nissan Leaf is coal fired, correct? Since about half of our power is generated by burning coal, Leaf owners are simply replacing burning oil with burning coal. It's a start, but not the solution. Best, Bob
The fossil fuel companies have the money to buy politicians, so they are going to get their way.
Biofuels are even worse and much less efficient. There is no power technology in the world which will allow ships to run on seawater.
The point is to transition our electrical generation to renewables, then the Leaf becomes truly green.
And yes, this country is already run by big business.
By the way, Captain Jack Payne of Sweetwater Marina in Delacroix, Louisiana, still has not received more than an initial small "tide-over" payment from BP, which devastated his recreational marsh fishing guide/lodge/boat launch/restaurant service for an entire year's busy season. His business is still down from pre-Great Gulf Oil Gusher days, though the inner marsh most often used by his clients is safe to fish. He says he stays up nights worried about what he'll tell the bank next. Others have been paid, some many miles from the coast, even some chain restaurants and businesses only indirectly connected with the marsh and seafood...but not him. His applications keep getting rejected and he keeps getting promises he'll be taken care of and they'll fix it, but it's been months of "your check is in the mail".
And I've been hearing that there are hundreds, maybe thousands of Cap'n Jacks all over the Gulf. Our suicide rate has skyrocketed, btw, especially if one spreads it over the post-Katrina/Rita/Ike/Gustav years.
No, ultimately, I'm come to the sad conclusion that this picture won't probably won't change much until the streets of America more closely resemble the streets of Cairo.
Then we find out the Chinese and other multi-nationals have beaten us to it.